Institute for International Policy Studies Tokyo IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002
Institute for International Policy Studies 2002 Institute for International Policy Studies Sumitomo Hanzomon Building 7F, 3-16 Hayabusacho Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan 102-0092 Telephone (03)3222-0711 Facsimile (03)3222-0710
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9.11 1 CSIS 2 1 ABM 1 3 the fabric of history produce large 1 James Schlesinger, A Test by Terrorism, The National Interest, Thanksgiving 2001/No.65-S, p5. 2 2001 12 11-13 http://www.iips.org/sym-j2001.html 3 President George W. Bush, President Delivers State of the Union Address, The President s State of the Union Address, January 29,2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/print/20020129-11.html 1
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 discontinuities 4 5 6 7 4 Steven E. Miller, The End of Unilateralism or Unilateralism Redux?, The Washington Quarte rly, Winter 2002, p.15 2002.2.12 (67-71 )2002.2.19 (68-71 ) 5 2002 2 20 6 Foresight January 2002 64 7 2002 2 21 Steven E. Miller, op.cit., p.19 2
9.11 8 9 10 11 12 13 8 9 2001 10 4 Summary by Nikolas K. Gvosdev of Symposium on America s War on Terrorism, Nixon Center, Washington, D.C., October 4, 2001,http://www.nixoncenter.org/special/symposiumsummary.htm 10 Steven E. Miller, op.cit, pp.-16-17 11 Ibid.,pp.-26-27 12 41 13 2002 2 3
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 14 15 54 14 22 15 Condoleezza Rice, "Promoting the National Interest", Foreign Affairs 2000 January/February 2000 3-4 4
9.11 16 17 18 19 20 21 16 50 17 64 18 John Mills, Manager, Harvard Asian Center 2002 1 14 19 53 20 31 5 2002 2 10 21 64 5
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 22 22 2001 12 25 6
9.11 23 24 25 26 (War on Terrorism) War against Terror ABC News/ Washington Post ( ) 27 23 John Mackinlay, Global Insuegent, The World Today, November 2001, vol.57/no.11, pp.15-17 24 Victor Bulmer-Thomas, Targeting Terrorism: US and Terrorism, The World Today, November 2001, vol.57/no.11, pp.8-10 25 Michel Haward, What s in a Name?- How to Fight Terrorism, Foreign Affairs, 2002 January/February, pp.8-13 2002 3 248-255 26 2002 3 23 27 ABC News/ Washington Post Poll. Latest: March 7-10,2002, (N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE 3. Field work by TNS), http://pollingreport.com/terror.htm 7
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 28 30 31 32 33 34 35 67 28 5 1998 29 30 64 31 21 32 Eliot A.Cohen, A Strange War, The National Interest, Thanksgiving 2001/No.65-S, p.13 33 Ibid.,p.13 34 Schlesinger, op.cit, p.5 35 8
9.11 36 9 36 2001 12 25
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 Base Force Bottom-up Review 37 10 37 Schlesinger, op.cit, p.16
9.11 38 39 9.11 38 11 39 55
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 12
9.11 40 41 40 LE FIGARO,February 2,2002 2002 2 11 41 Charles Krauthammer, Redefining The War, Washington Post, February 1, 2002, p.25 13
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 42 Ibid.. 43 2002 2 8 2 6 Secretary Colin L. Powell, Statement on President Bush s budget Request for FY 2003, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2002/7858pf.htm 44 2002 3 29 45 2002 5 118 46 2002 3 47 2002 3 48 118 49 2002 2 1 2002 3 14
9.11 50 51 50 15 51 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, Department of Defense, September 30,2001, http://www.defenselink.mil
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 52 52 President George W. Bush, President Thanks World Coalition for Anti-Terrorism Efforts,March 11, 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/03/20020311-1.html 16
9.11 Peace Building 53 54 55 53 Richard Perle, Laon Fuerth, Getting Saddam: A Debate, http://www.cfr.org/public/resource.cgi?pub!4324 2002 3 217 54 2002 3 4 55 53 17
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 56 57 D.C 56 2002 5 76 57 2000 Zalmay Khalilzad and Daniel Byman, Afganistan: The Consolidation of a Rogue State, Washington Quarterly Winter 2000 18
9.11 58 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 58 Margaret Thatcher, Advice to a Superpower, The New York Times, February 11, 2002 19
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 59 evil Jr. 59 CNN/ USA Today/ Gallup Poll, Feb. 8-10, 2002, (N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE 3, http://pollingreport.com/ terror.htm 20
9.11 60 3 60 2002 3 47-48 21
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 When How 61 62 63 61 Kenneth M.Pollack, Next Stop Baghdad, Foreign Affairs, 2002 March/April, pp.45-46 2002 3 230 62 203-217 63 Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force on America s Response to Terrorism, Improving the U.S. Public Diplomacy Campaign In the War Against Terrorism, November 6, 2001http://www.cfr.org/Public/publications/PubDiplom_TF.html 2002 5 227-232 22
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IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 64 President Bush, Prime Minister Blair Hold Press Conference, April 6, 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/release/2002/04/print/200200406-3.html 65 3 15 2002 3 18 66 Kenneth M.Pollack, op.cit.,p44 67 230 68 Andrew Koch, Strategy to Oust Saddam, Jane s Defense Weekly, 6 March 2002 69 Kenneth M.Pollack, op.cit.,p41 70 230 24
9.11 71 72 71 Kenneth M.Pollack, op.cit.,p45 72 2002 2 20 President Bush & President Kim Dae-Jung Meet in Seoul, February 20, 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/02/20020220-1.html 25
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 73 73 26
9.11 76 74 2002 3 29 Institute for National Strategic Studies, A Comprehensive Approach to North Korea, March 1999, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/forum159.html 75 Victor D. Cha, Korea s Place in the Axis, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2002, p.83 76 Ibid.,p.82 27
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 77 28 78
9.11 79 80 81 82 79 Charles Krauthammer, op.cit, p.13 80 207 81 2002 2 8 82 Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001, http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/ptr20010110.pdf 2001 7 31 67 29
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9.11 31 83
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 84 85 86 Network Centric Warfare 84 Nuclear Posture Review Report, 8 January 2002, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/jan2002/d20020109npr.pdf 85 Secretary Rumsfeld Speaks on 21 st Century Transformation of the U.S. Armed Forces, January 31,2002, http://www.defenselink.mil/cgi-bin/dlprint.cgi 86 14 2 18-46 32
9.11 87 87 2002 1 15 IFPA(Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis) 33
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 88 89 88 Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Ye a r 2003, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2003/budget.html 89 34
9.11 90 91 90 Secretary Rumsfeld Speaks on 21 st Century Transformation of the U.S. Armed Forces p.2 91 Ibid.,pp.7-8 35
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 92 92 Donald H. Rumsfeld, Transforming the Military, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2002, p.24 36
9.11 93 94 93 Ibid.,p.27 37 94 Ibid.,p.27
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 95 3 9 15 96 America As Nuclear Rougue, THE NEW YORK TIMES, March 12,2002. 97 Andrew F. Krepinevich, The Real Problems With Our Nuclear Posture, THE NEW YORK TIMES, March 14,2002 98 Nuclear Posturing, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, March 14, 2002 7 99 181 34 100 R.Jeffrey Smith, Clinton Directive Changes Strategy on Nuclear Arms Centering on Deterrence, Official Drop Terms for Long Atomic War, The Washington Post, December 7,1997 101 2002 3 28 96 38
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IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 102 103 104 102 2002 1 18 (Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies) 103 2002 1 18 Pacific Forum CSIS 104 2002 1 15 IFPA 40
9.11 105 106 105 Rumsfeld, op.cit,p.27 106 2002 1 18 (Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies) 41
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 Strategic Defense Review 107 108 109 107 29 3 2001 12 61-62 108 199 109 42
9.11 110 111 112 110 CSIS 111 2002 116 43 112
IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 113 113 2000 5 4 182-232 44
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