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1 ERINA Discussion Paper No ERINA
2 JEL Classifications: F51, O52, O53, P27, P28 Keywords: Far East, Special Economic Zones, Eurasian Economic Union Arai and Shida 2018 ERINA mail: erina.or.jp
3 EU Public Law 11544: Countering America s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act Pivot to Asia Turn to the East Suslov, 2016 Greater Eurasian Partnership 1
4 GDP GDP Brent Brent Arai and Shida (2018) 2
5 lower middle income upper middle income 2012 high income GDP WDI GDP GDP growth (annual %) Brent oil price (annual % change) GDP growth (annual %) Brent oil price (annual % change) GDP Rosstat IMF Brent EIA 2 1 GNI WDI 1 GDP WDI 2017 Rosstat GDP IFS 3
6 % 71.5% 70.0% 60.0% 51.3% 60.4% 50.0% 40.0% 42.5% 43.0% 39.6% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Mineral resource exports (% of total exports) Oil and gas revenues (% of federal budget revenues) Rosstat Arai and Shida (2018) Frankel (2010) Bradshaw and Connolly (2016a; 2016b) 4 IMF resource-rich 25 4
7 neftegazovye dokhody: oil and gas revenues a b c d 1 1 stabilization fund reserve fund national wealth fund GDP EU
8 EU / EU APEC / EU APEC / EU APEC Rosstat APEC 16 5 HS 27 5 EU EU UN Comtrade 6
9 HS EU EU 2 HS EU EU APEC EAEU HS EU 7 SITC SITC 6, Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials 1 EU EU OFAC SSI: Sectoral Sanctions Identification VTB VEB 30 EU EU 6 Eurostat EU28 EU28 trade by SITC product group 7
10 90 EU refinancing Orlova, 2014; Ershov, 2016; Gurvich and Prilepskiy, 2016 FDI FDI 84.0 EU EU FDI FDI Minakir (2017) EU 8
11 2000 EU Minakir APEC TPP RCEP ADB Eurasian Economic Union: EAEU 5 Belt and Road Initiative 11 TPP 9
12 EAEU EAEU EAEU EU EAEU statistics EAEU EAEU EAEU Obrashchenie Predsedatelia Vyschego EvraziisDkogo ekonomicheskogo soveta, Prezidenta Rossii Vladimira Putina k glazam gosudarstv-chlenov Evraziiskogo ekonomicheskogo soiuza 10
13 AIIB Valdai Discussion Club, 2017 ibid Eight-Point Cooperation Plan
14 MOU 9 Nine Bridges Initiative FTA Sojung, Yoon, Korea is best partner for developing Russian Far East, Korea.net Gataway to Korea, September 7, 2017: 10 Lukin and Zakharova
15 Government of Russia, 2009a ERINA, Victor Ishaev Social-Economic Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region
16 LNG Government of Russia, 2009b 3 100% 90% 80% 70% 14.7% 1.9% 3.5% 21.9% 5.1% 4.9% 60% 50% 69.5% 40% 52.1% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8.3% 12.6% 8.7% 1.6% &catid=304:-2016-&itemid=316 14
17 Voropai and Saneev eds., Minakir and Sergienko eds., ibid km 2000km GRP 8 EU 15
18 APEC 2012 Yuri Trutnev Aleksandr Galushka Kuzunetsova (2018) 12 Territories of Advanced Social and Economic Development Advanced Special Economic Zones ASEZ TOR TOSER Khuziyatov,
19 resident Decrees of the Government 15 17
20 KRDV, 2017b KRDV (2017b) Khuziyatov (2018) 1 2 Arai, Vision 18
21 for the Northeast Asia Transportation Corridors ERINA, ERINA Greater Tumen Initiative: GTI 16 GTR Trans-GTR Transportation Corridors GTI, ERINA SLB 16 19
22 51.7 TEU TEU 2016 SLB SLB SLB Russian Railways 7 7 Trans-Siberian Intermodal Operators Association of Japan: TSIOAJ FESCO Primorye Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit SLB Ob utverzhdenii Kontseptsii razvitiia mezhdunarodnykh transportnykh koridorov Primo'e-1 i Primo'e
23 釜 TEU 5 ERINA East Siberia-Pacific Ocean: ESPO ESPO1 2694km ESPO2 2046km km
24 Power of Siberia GTI 22
25 2015 Arai, H. [2016] Prospects for Japan-Russia Cooperation in the Far East of Russia, Russia and Japan. Looking Together into the Future, Vladivostok: Far Eastern Federal University, pp
26 64. Arai, H., and Y. Shida [2018] Structural Problems of the Russian Far East and Cooperation in the Northeast Asian Region, Economic Growth in the Northeast Asian: Structural Reforms and Regional Cooperation, Tokyo: Nippon Hyoron Sha (forthcoming). (in Japanese: ERINA 7). Bradshaw, M., and R. Connolly [2016a] Barrels and Bullets: The Geostrategic Significance of Russia s Oil and Gas Exports. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp Bradshaw, M., and R. Connolly [2016b] Russia s Natural Resources in the World Economy: History, Review and Reassessment, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol. 57, No. 6, pp Ershov, M. [2016], What Economic Policy Does Russia Need under Sanctions? Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp ERINA (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia) [2002] Vision for the Northeast Asia Transportation Corridors. ERINA (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia) [2017] Northeast Asian Economic Databook (in Japanese: 2017 ) Frankel, J. [2010] The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey, NBER Working Paper, No Government of Russia [2009a] Gosudarstvennaia programma Rossiiskoi Federatsii Sotsial noeconomicheskoe Razvitie Dal nego Vostoka i Baikal skogo Regiona [rasporiazhenie pravitel stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 29 marta 2013 goda No. 466r]. Government of Russia [2009b] Energeticheskaia strategiia Rossii na period do 2030 goda [rasporiazhenie pravitel stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 13 noiabria 2009 goda No. 1715r]. Gurvich, E. and I. Prilepskii [2016] Vliyanie finansovykh sanktsii na Rossiiskuyu ekonomiku, Voprosy ekonomiki, No. 1, pp GTI [2013] Integrated Transport Infrastructure and Cross-border Facilitation Study for the Trans- GTR Transport Corridors: Regional Summery Report, GTI. GTI [2014] Evaluation Study on the Sea-Land Routes in Northeast Asia, GTI. Khuziyatov, T. [2018] Series: Looking for the Real Russia Insights from Japan-Russia Experts (3) Business Environment in the Far East Region of Russia: Current State and Issues, IIST e- Magazine, 28 February, KRDV (Korporatsiia razvitiia dal nego vostoka) [2016a] Otchet o deiatel nosti AO KRDV: ianvar - sentiabr 2016 g.: KRDV (Korporatsiia razvitiia dal nego vostoka) [2016b] Otchet o deiatel nosti upravliaiushchei kompanii, osushchestvliaiushchei funktsii po uplavleniiu territoriiami operezhaiushchego 24
27 sotsial no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia v sub ektakh Rossiiskoi Federatsii, vkhodiashchikh v sostav dal nevostochnogo federal nogo okruga, za 2016 god: KRDV (Korporatsiia razvitiia dal nego vostoka) [2017a] Otchet o deiatel nosti AO KRDV: 1 kvartal 2017 goda: KRDV (Korporatsiia razvitiia dal nego vostoka) [2017b] Otchet za 2017 god: Kuznetsova, O. (2018), Russia s Regional Economic Policy under Putin, ROTOBO Monthly Report, 2018 April (in Japanese: NIS ). Lukin, A., and L. Zakharova [2017] Russia-North Korea Economic Ties: Is There More Than Meets the Eye? E-Notes, October 2017, Foreign Policy Research Institute. Minakir, P. [2017] Turn to the East Policy: Myths and Realities, paper presented at ERINA International Workshop Northeast Asian Structural Reform and Regional Cooperation held at Ito International Research Center, University of Tokyo, September [mimeo] Minakir, P.A., and V.I Sergienko eds. [2011] Sintez nauchno-tekhnicheskikh i ekonomicheskikh prognozov: tikhookeanskaia Possiia 2050, Vladivostok: Dal'nauka. Orlova, N. [2016] Financial Sanctions: Consequences for Russia s Economy and Economic Policy, Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp Suslov, D. [2016] Without A Common Space : A New Agenda for Russia-EU Relations, Valdai Papers, No. 49, June. Valdai Discussion Club [2017] Reshaping Eurasian Space: Common Perspectives from China, Russia, and Kazakhstan Think Tanks, Joint Report, July Voropai, N.I., and B.G. Saneev eds. [2011] Vostochnyi vektor energeticheskoi strategii Rossii: sovremennoe sostoianie, vzglyad v budushchee, Irkutsk: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute. 25
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