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1 1 WMD Richard L. Armitage NPT IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei WMD WMD WMD 1 Seymon Brown, The Illusion of Control, Brookings,

2 WMD NPT 1972 BWC N UNSCOM WMD equalizer

3 3 WMD WMD 90 obtrusive WMD 4 WMD 90 3 Robert S. Litwak, Rogue states and U.S. Foreign Policy, Woodrow Wilson Center Press, Avis Bohlen, The Rise and Fall of Arms Control, Survival, 45:3, Autumn 2003; Paul Bracken, Thinking (Again) About Arms Control, Orbis, 48:1, Winter Claes G. Ryn, America the Virtuous: The Crisis of Democracy and the Quest for Democracy, Transaction Publisher, 2003, Ch. 13, 14. R. J. Art, A Grand Strategy for America, A Century Foundation Book,

4 5 WMD NPT WMD 2. NPT WMD Bill J. Clinton 7 5 Andrew J. Bacevich, American Empire, Harvard University Press, Paul Bracken, The Structure of the Second Nuclear Age, Orbis, 47:3, Summer CWC 95 NPT 96 NPT CTBT IAEA INFCIRC/540, NSG MTCR 95 NPT NPT

5 CTBT UNSCOM 99 UNMOVIC 90 WMD WMD WMD WMD George W. Bush Paul O neil 9 WMD 10 WMD 8 Jason D. Ellis, The Best Defense: Counter-proliferation and U.S. National Security, The Washington Quarterly, 26:2, Spring 2003; Robert S. Litwak, Non-proliferation and the Dilemmas of Regime Change, Survival, 45:4, Winter John Newhouse, Imperial America, A.A.Knopf, Hans Blix David Kay 1 23 WMD 5

6 Saddam Hussein WMD WMD path-dependent WMD 90 WMD WMD IAEA CTBT CWC WMD Abdul Qadeer Khan 6

7 IAEA NPT Pervez Musharraf 13 WMD WMD Devin T. Hagerty, The South Asian Nuclear Tests: Implications for Arms Control, in C.U. Ungere and M. Hanson, The Politics of Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Ullen and Unwin,

8 SCOPE UAE GTI Buhary Syed Abu Tahir) Urs Tinner GTI Peter Griffin GTI 1960 IAEA

9 WMD 16 WMD WMD 17 WMD Benazir Bhutto WMD John Parachini, Putting WMD Terrorism into Perspective, The Washington Quarterly, 26: 4, Autumn 2003; Steven Simon and Daniel Benjamin, America and the New Terrorism, Survival, 42:1, Spring 2000; Jonathan B. Tucker, Lessons Learned, in J.B. Tucker, ed., Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons, Cambridge: MIT Press, Kathleen C. Bailey WMD

10 239 WMD CIA VX WMD John Parachini WMD 19 Central Intelligence Agency, Terrorist CBRN: Materials and Effects(u), CTC , May 2003; National Infrastructure Protection Center, Homeland Security Information Update: Al Qa ida Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Threat and Basic Countermeasures, Information Bulletin Feb. 12, 2003, < ib htm>. 10

11 20 10 WMD 21 Osama Bin Ladin WMD WMD WMD WMD WMD 20 Parachini, op. cit.; W. Seth Carus, The Rajneeshees (1984), in J.B. Tucker, ed., op. cit.; Bruce Hoffman, Terrorism and Weapon of Mass Destruction, RAND Document P-8039, M. Leitenberg, The Widespread Distortion of Information on the Effects to Produce Biological Warfare Agents by the Japanese Aum Shinrikyo Group, Terrorism and Political Violence, 11:4, Winter 1999; David E. Kaplan, Aum Shinrikyo (1995), in J.B. Tucker, ed., op. cit.; Richard A. Falkenrath, Confronting Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Terrorism, Survival 40:3, Autumn G. Allison, How to Stop Nuclear Terror, Foreign Affairs, 83:1, Jan./Feb

12 WMD WMD 9 11 WMD WMD 4. NPT IAEA 22 IAEA WMD WMD WMD WMD 22 Kurt M. Campbell, Nuclear Proliferation beyond Rogues, The Washington Quarterly, 26:1, Winter

13 PSI WMD PSI PSI PSI 2003 TBP 23 PSI WMD 91 CTR WMD PSI INFCE Lee Feinstein and Anne-Marie Slaughter, A Duty to Prevent, Foreign Affairs, 83:1, Jan./Feb

14 25 IAEA NSG NSG NSG NSG NPT IAEA WMD WMD WMD

15 NPT NPT WMD 3 NPT NPT non-assembly regime CTBT FMCT WMD 27 NEWS Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali 2 12 non-assembly regime D. T. Hagerty, op. cit. 15

16 James A. Kerry IAEA P

17 WMD WMD 30 WMD 1960 WMD 17

18 WMD WMD WMD NPT IAEA NSG PSI WMD WMD 18

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untitled 2 WMD WMD W George W. Bush 9 11 1. 1990 1990 1 IAEA WMD 1 1 Raymond Tanter, Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998), p. 40. Robert S. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S.