1. 核兵器保有の背景 Hersh, 1991; Cohen, 1998; 2001; Bahgat, 2006: 114 cumulative deterrence Feldman, 1997: Feldman, 1997: 95; Maoz, 2006:

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1 [ 特集 : アジアの核開発と拡散防止レジーム ] NPT NPT NPT NPT 200 IISS, 2007: 228 ambiguity policy WMD WMD WMD 57

2 1. 核兵器保有の背景 Hersh, 1991; Cohen, 1998; 2001; Bahgat, 2006: 114 cumulative deterrence Feldman, 1997: Feldman, 1997: 95; Maoz, 2006: Karsh and Navias, 1995: NPT 1 IAEA CNS, 2006 NPT IAEA NPT 1996 CTBT 1998 FMCT CTBT NPT 1990 NPT 2000: 61; Landau and Malz, Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

3 2. 核政策への批判 Cohen, 1998: 214 Barnaby, 1995: 105 nuclear opacity Cohen, 1998: IX Cohen, 1998: nuclear coalition Maoz, 2006: Maoz, 2006: , , WMD 59

4 1981 Maoz, 2006: Bar- Joseph, 2004: , 問題の背景と経緯 : Eisenstadt, 1996: WMD Lake, 1994: 52 IAEA 60 Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

5 IAEA NPT 4 Jones, 1998: NPT NPT 2. 新たな展開 National Council for Resistance IAEA IAEA 3 IAEA 3 3 WTO IAEA P1 P2 2004; IAEA, 2004: 2 20; IAEA, 2005: 2 4; Shire and Albright, 2006 IAEA 3 EU IAEA IAEA 61

6 3. 制裁決議の採択 5 P IAEA 8 31 P NSG MTCR Fitzpatrick, 2007: 44 7 Burns, Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

7 イランの対応と主張 ) UF6 IAEA IAEA P5+1 P Jones, 1998: 47; Chubin, 2002: WMD Sagan, 2006: 47 63

8 Fitzpatrick, 2006: 6 Bar-Joseph, 2004: ; 150 Schake, 2007: 9 WMD 1. イラクとリビア 2003 WMD 1980 WMD 1991 UNSCOM IAEA IAEA NPT IAEA WMD 2004 IAEA WMD IAEA IAEA 1980 NPT 2006: Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

9 ILSA 2) 1 WMD WMD WMD Walker, 2004: 中東における WMD 拡散 WMD WMD CNS 6 3 CNS, WMD 1 CWC BWC UAE HCOC 2006: Normark and others, 2004: 41 42; Jouejati, 2005: CWC NPT 1990 CWC Feldman, 1997: ; 2000: 61 CWC 65

10 1 NPT IAEA IAEA CWC BWC HCOC UAE 3. 複雑な紛争構造と象徴政治 WMD 1 WMD ACRS 66 Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

11 3 symbolic politics WMD Barnett, 1998: WMD WMD 1990 NPT

12 2? Pew Research Center, Pew Global Attitudes Project: America s Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas, ( Evental, 2006: 27 29; Fitzpatrick, 2007: 46 48; Sagan, 2006: NPT 68 Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

13 1974 IAEA 3 P5+1 NPT 1995: 43; Baumgart and Müller, 2004: ACRS ACRS NPT Fitzpatrick, 2007; Sagan, 2006; Schake, UAE 1 NPT NPT IAEA 69

14 1 WMD NTP 1) IAEA Payvand s Iran News, , com/news/05/aug/1113.html ) ILSA 日本語英語 Bahgat, Gawdat (2006), Israel and Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East, Middle East Policy, 13(2), pp Bar-Joseph, Uri (2004), The Paradox of Israeli Power, Survival, 46(4), pp Barnaby, Frank (1995), Capping Israel s Nuclear Volcano, Israel Affairs, 2(1), pp Barnett, Michael N. (1998), Dialogues in Arab Politics: Negotiations in Regional Order, New York, Columbia University Press. Baumgrat, Claudia, and Harald Müller (2004), A Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone in the Middle East: A Pie in the Sky? The Washington Quarterly, 28(1), pp Burns, Nicholas (2006), Conference Call on UN Sanctions Resolution 1737, U.S. Department of State, December 23, 2006, CNS (Center for Nonproliferation Studies) (2006), Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, Monterey, Cohen, Avner (1998), Israel and the Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press. Chubin, Shahram (2002), Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security, Adelphi Paper, No. 342, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Oxford, Oxford University Press. 70 Vol. 53, No. 3, July 2007

15 Eisenstadt, Michael (1996), Iranian Military Power: Capabilities and Intentions, Washington, D.C., The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Evental, Udi (2006), The United States and the Iranian Nuclear Challenge: Inadequate Alternatives, Problematic Choices, Strategic Assessment, 9(1), pp Feldman, Shai (1997), Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in the Middle East, Cambridge, MIT Press. Fitzpatrick, Mark (2006), Assessing Iran s Nuclear Programme Survival, 48(3), pp (2007), Can Iran s Nuclear Capability Be Kept Latent? Survival, 49(1), pp Hersh, Seymore M. (1991), The Samson Option: Israel s Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East, London, I.B. Tauris 1992 IAEA (2004), Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General, GOV/2004/83, 15 November (2005), Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General, GOV/2005/87, 18 November IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies) (2007), The Military Balance 2007, London, Routledge. Jones, Peter (1998), Iran s Threat Perceptions and Arms Control Policies, The Nonproliferation Review, 6(1), pp Jouejati, Murhaf (2005), Syrian Motives for its WMD Programs and What to do About Them, Middle East Journal, 59(1), pp Karsh, Efraim and Martin Navias (1995), Israeli Nuclear Weapons and Middle East Peace, Israel Affairs, 2(1), pp Lake, Anthony (1994), Confronting Backlash States, Foreign Affairs, 73(2), pp Landau, Emily and Tamar Malz (2000), Israel s Arms Control Agenda, Strategic Assessment, 2(4), Maoz, Zeev (2006), Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel s Security and Foreign Policy, Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press. Normark, Magnus, and Anders Lindblad, Anders Norqvist, Björn Sandtröm, Louise Waldenström (2004), Syria and WMD: Incentives and Capabilities, Umeå, Swedish Defense Research Agency Sagan, Scott D. (2006), How to Keep the Bomb From Iran, Foreign Affairs, 85(5), pp Schake, Kori (2007), Dealing with A Nuclear Iran, Policy Review, Issue 142, pp Shire, Jacqueline, and David Albright (2006), Iran s NPT Violations- Numerous and Possibly On-Goinr? The Institute for Science and International Security, iran/irannptviolations.pdf Walker, William (2004), Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Order, Adelphi Paper, No. 370, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Oxford, Oxford University Press. tateyama@nda.ac.jp 71

21_01_sanada.indd

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