ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.139 by May 2005 Economic and Social Research Instute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan
* 400 : JEL classification: D12, E21 * 186-8603 2-1 042-580-8369 FAX 042-580-8333 1
Abstract (100 words) A number of hypotheses have been proposed to examine why Japan s household saving rate was high. This paper takes advantage of a micro-level data from Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilies to reexamine the effects of the bonus system on households savings. We find the average saving rate of households wh bonus payments is surely higher than that of households whout bonus, after controlling several factors that might affect saving patterns. However, this observation reflects that households wh negative saving rate are unevenly clustered on the non-bonus group. The posive effect of bonus payments on household saving rate disappears once the sample is divided into households wh posive and those wh negative saving rate. Keywords: Japan s saving rate, bonus system JEL classification: D12, E21 2
Hayashi [1986] Horioka [1990] 1 (Shinohara(1962) ) 80 1 Ishikawa and Ueda (1984) 1984 1988 Sato (1987) 1990 90 1 90 [2003] [2004] 3
80 90 80 1 1992 1989 90 2 3 28 400 15 6,000 1 4,000 4
5 5 9 3 a (b) 2 1991 3 100 2 3 5
1991 2002 12 4,000 12 48,000 (1) (2) 100 20,000 100 4 1 626 3.7 6 5 40 50 6 53 15 33 7 4 1 2,300 1,200 79 15,400 21 4,200 60 4 (8) 5 6 10 6
5 4 1 17.33 13.32 20.44 12.11 3 3.1 Horioka (1990) 36 7 (1) 7 Horioka 7
80 8 10 20 70 (2) 1973 9 (3) 8 2004 9 1 8
9 10 (4) [1990] 3.2 10
(1) 11 Ishikawa and Ueda [1984] Horioka[1990] (2) Hab-Buffer Income Hypothesis Ishikawa and Ueda (1984) 1 (3) [1980] Shinohara [1982] 12 11 (1963) 12 (1981) 100 10
(4) (1992) 13 3.3 SR i t SR = α J 0 γ 1J t α TimeDum β BonusDum t Age( J) Dum ω ln AnnualIncome t γ OldLifeDum ω ln FAssets ω DoubleIncomeDum ω Worker Dum K 3K γ BorrowDum γ RiskDum γ GoalSave 4 1 5 5 2 2 6 6 γ ω Family 3 ε Resid( K) Dum ω Family 4 2 (A) BonusDum β β TimeDum t 1992 2002 γ 3.1 Age(J)Dum 10 J=30,40,50,60,70 OldLifeDum Resid(K)Dum 100 lump-sum payment hypothesis 13 11
BorrowDum RiskDum GoalSave ω AnnualIncome Fassets Family Family 2 DoubleIncomeDum WorkerDum 14 3.4 2 1 (A) 2 2 1 50 90 15 (1) 2 β 2.1 2.1 16 14 15 2 16 2.1 8 1.6 12
60 70 50 4 6 2 β 3.1 3.1 17 (2) i t i (A) ε 18 (A) 17 2.1 8 1.6 18 13
14 I I K K J J t t t Dum I Job g medum DoubleInco f Family f Family f Fassets f me AnnualInco f GoalSave e RiskDum e BorrowDum e Dum K sid e OldLifeDum e Dum J Age e TimeDum a a BonusDum ob ) ( ln ln ) ( Re ) ( 1) ( Pr 5 2 4 3 2 1 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 = = (B) f 4 (A) 6 19 3(1) 3(2) 2 2 2 14 3.5 (A) (B) 14 16,000 4 19
9 & x x 2 3 2 12 20 2 3 90 15
(1) (2) (3) (2) (3) 3 20 20 1990 80 16
. 1967. 1981 no.127 22 33. 1980. 2004 No.04-J-12. (1963). 1 8. 1958. 1973. 1981 no.127 2 12. 1990 121 7 39. 2003 15 III 3 2. 1992 18. 1964 16 1973. 1988 82 92.. 1984 55 69. Hayashi, Fumio (1986). Why is Japan s saving rate so apparently high? in Fischer ed. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, vol. 1. pp. 147-210. Hayashi, Fumio (1997). Understanding Saving: Evidence from the Uned States and Japan, MIT Press. Horioka, Charles Yuji (1990). Why is Japan s Household Saving Rate So High? A 17
Lerature Survey, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies vol.4, pp. 49-92. Ishikawa, Tsuneo and Kazuo Ueda (1984). The Bonus Payment System and Japanese Personal Savings, in Aoki ed. The Economic Analysis of the Japanese Firm, pp. 133-192. Mizoguchi, Toshiyuki (1970). Personal Savings and Consumption in Postwar Japan, Economic Research Series No.12, Instute of Economic Research, Hotsubashi Universy, Kinokuniya. Sato, Kazuo (1987). Saving and Investment, in Yamamura and Yasuba ed. The Polical Economy of Japan Volume 1: The Domestic Transformation, pp. 137-185. Shinohara, Miyohei (1959). The Structure of Saving and Consumption Function in Postwar Japan, Journal of Polical Economy, vol.67 (6), pp.589-603. Shinohara, Miyohei (1962). Growth and Cycles in the Japanese Economy, Economic Research Series No.5, Instute of Economic Research, Hotsubashi Universy, Kinokuniya. Shinohara, Miyohei (1970). Structural Changes in Japan s Economic Development, Economic Research Series No.12, Instute of Economic Research, Hotsubashi Universy, Kinokuniya. Shinohara, Miyohei (1982). Japan s High Savings Ratio: Its Determinants and Behavior Patterns, wh Some Comparisons wh Asian NICS, Industrial Growth, Trade, and Dynamic Patterns in the Japanese Economy, Universy of Tokyo Press. 18
19,591 0.79 0.41 15,382 1.00 0.00 4,209 0.00 0.00 19,591 16.47 20.56 15,382 17.33 19.26 4,209 13.32 24.49 19,509 11.93 10.04 15,324 12.11 9.86 4,185 11.27 10.66 19,568 16.04 21.78 15,359 20.44 22.68 19,591 626.3 330.2 15,382 633.2 305.3 4,209 600.7 407.3 19,591 3.69 1.22 15,382 3.75 1.18 4,209 3.48 1.32 19,591 0.51 0.50 15,382 0.49 0.50 4,209 0.60 0.49 19,591 0.63 0.48 15,382 0.74 0.44 4,209 0.25 0.43 19,591 0.03 0.17 15,382 0.02 0.13 4,209 0.08 0.27 19,591 0.19 0.39 15,382 0.11 0.31 4,209 0.49 0.50 19,591 0.21 0.41 15,382 0.26 0.44 4,209 0.04 0.20 19,591 0.23 0.42 15,382 0.26 0.44 4,209 0.13 0.33 19,591 0.19 0.39 15,382 0.22 0.41 4,209 0.08 0.27 19,591 0.03 0.17 15,382 0.02 0.13 4,209 0.07 0.26 19,591 0.11 0.31 15,382 0.11 0.31 4,209 0.11 0.32 19,591 0.04 0.20 15,382 0.04 0.21 4,209 0.02 0.15 19,591 0.20 0.40 15,382 0.23 0.42 4,209 0.10 0.30 19,591 0.33 0.47 15,382 0.35 0.48 4,209 0.24 0.43 19,591 0.28 0.45 15,382 0.28 0.45 4,209 0.29 0.45 19,591 0.13 0.34 15,382 0.09 0.29 4,209 0.28 0.45 19,591 0.02 0.16 15,382 0.01 0.11 4,209 0.07 0.26 19,493 0.53 0.50 15,307 0.52 0.50 4,186 0.55 0.50 19,493 0.15 0.36 15,307 0.14 0.34 4,186 0.21 0.41 19,493 0.06 0.23 15,307 0.06 0.24 4,186 0.04 0.21 19,493 0.15 0.36 15,307 0.15 0.36 4,186 0.13 0.34 19,493 0.05 0.22 15,307 0.05 0.22 4,186 0.05 0.21 19,493 0.06 0.24 15,307 0.07 0.26 4,186 0.01 0.10 19,493 0.01 0.08 15,307 0.01 0.08 4,186 0.01 0.10 19,486 0.74 0.44 15,294 0.74 0.44 4,192 0.77 0.42 19,591 0.50 0.50 15,382 0.52 0.50 4,209 0.46 0.50 19,591 0.26 0.44 15,382 0.26 0.44 4,209 0.27 0.44 18,505 3.81 4.11 14,575 3.55 3.68 3,930 4.77 5.31 18,505 2325.9 2776.5 14,575 2207.1 2500.3 3,930 2766.5 3587.6 19,296 1183.4 1442.3 15,175 1128.5 1349.1 4,121 1385.9 1728.1
2.069 0.403 *** 3.063 0.655 *** -1.065 0.805-1.113 0.908-5.912 0.826 *** -5.745 0.940 *** -10.141 0.844 *** -10.591 0.963 *** -8.391 0.918 *** -8.878 1.113 *** -9.333 1.270 *** -7.097 2.309 *** -1.926 0.346 *** -1.748 0.413 *** -3.882 0.435 *** -5.036 0.559 *** -5.023 0.669 *** -5.731 0.787 *** -6.296 0.490 *** -7.545 0.589 *** -5.309 0.712 *** -6.164 0.825 *** -4.143 0.656 *** -5.007 0.697 *** -5.456 1.697 *** -6.723 2.237 *** 4.285 0.323 *** 4.314 0.389 *** 0.447 0.331 0.507 0.388 0.042 0.040 0.062 0.054 12.882 0.411 *** 10.995 0.537 *** 1.021 0.172 *** 1.190 0.210 *** -3.657 0.661 *** -3.127 0.820 *** 0.197 0.081 ** 0.125 0.102 0.795 0.302 *** 0.502 0.355-0.458 0.339 0.144 0.140 Root MSE 18.848 17.937 17306 11100 ( *** ** *
df/dx 2.165 1.470 13.815 5.845 ** 0.016 0.017-1.069 0.806-1.082 0.909-0.047 0.019 *** -5.915 0.829 *** -5.330 0.967 *** -0.095 0.021 *** -10.141 0.858 *** -9.812 1.046 *** -0.247 0.029 *** -8.371 0.977 *** -7.149 1.519 *** -0.341 0.040 *** -9.311 1.357 *** -4.854 2.722 * -0.019 0.007 *** -1.925 0.347 *** -1.647 0.416 *** -0.004 0.008-3.882 0.436 *** -4.989 0.559 *** -0.001 0.014-5.018 0.670 *** -5.760 0.788 *** -0.012 0.010-6.292 0.490 *** -7.528 0.590 *** -0.042 0.016 *** -5.304 0.713 *** -5.885 0.844 *** 0.092 0.011 *** -4.146 0.661 *** -5.448 0.733 *** -0.090 0.042 ** -5.457 1.700 *** -6.210 2.252 *** -0.001 0.006 4.283 0.323 *** 4.339 0.389 *** 0.006 0.007 0.447 0.331 0.439 0.390-0.003 0.001 *** 0.042 0.041 0.087 0.055 0.063 0.008 *** 12.877 0.424 *** 10.577 0.604 *** 0.009 0.003 *** 1.018 0.173 *** 1.134 0.213 *** 0.049 0.013 *** -3.664 0.664 *** -3.466 0.844 *** -0.005 0.002 *** 0.198 0.082 ** 0.160 0.105 0.005 0.006 0.794 0.303 *** 0.520 0.355-0.487 0.545-0.086 0.018 *** 0.215 0.007 *** 0.172 0.008 *** 0.168 0.008 *** -0.025 0.021 0.118 0.008 *** 0.790 0.854 (at x-bar) LR chi2(37) 4857.00 0.273 0.141 0.136-6459.06 Root MSE 18.861 17.95 17306 17306 11100 ( *** ** *
-0.180 0.287 0.289 0.480-1.989 1.033 * 0.499 4.214-1.198 0.559 ** -1.109 0.640 * -1.191 0.559 ** -1.105 0.640 * -3.952 0.575 *** -3.782 0.664 *** -4.042 0.577 *** -3.769 0.681 *** -6.750 0.590 *** -6.926 0.682 *** -6.933 0.598 *** -6.903 0.738 *** -6.367 0.641 *** -7.020 0.786 *** -6.786 0.681 *** -6.994 1.067 *** -8.316 0.888 *** -7.697 1.602 *** -8.919 0.947 *** -7.681 1.887 *** -1.302 0.239 *** -1.175 0.288 *** -1.325 0.240 *** -1.171 0.290 *** -2.341 0.310 *** -3.040 0.402 *** -2.372 0.310 *** -3.039 0.402 *** -4.192 0.475 *** -4.462 0.563 *** -4.198 0.475 *** -4.464 0.563 *** -5.374 0.345 *** -5.869 0.419 *** -5.399 0.345 *** -5.871 0.419 *** -5.049 0.508 *** -5.511 0.598 *** -5.106 0.509 *** -5.515 0.610 *** -3.716 0.453 *** -4.172 0.489 *** -3.622 0.456 *** -4.183 0.514 *** -4.668 1.194 *** -4.312 1.613 *** -4.779 1.196 *** -4.289 1.622 *** 6.289 0.228 *** 5.956 0.278 *** 6.285 0.228 *** 5.956 0.278 *** 0.281 0.230 0.487 0.273 * 0.289 0.230 0.486 0.274 * 0.239 0.029 *** 0.237 0.039 *** 0.231 0.030 *** 0.238 0.040 *** 6.835 0.294 *** 5.523 0.387 *** 6.960 0.301 *** 5.517 0.430 *** 1.580 0.122 *** 1.639 0.150 *** 1.594 0.122 *** 1.639 0.152 *** -3.731 0.465 *** -4.049 0.584 *** -3.653 0.467 *** -4.054 0.600 *** 0.263 0.057 *** 0.300 0.073 *** 0.254 0.058 *** 0.300 0.075 *** 0.530 0.211 ** 0.285 0.250 0.502 0.211 ** 0.287 0.250-0.345 0.237 0.194 0.379 0.199 0.191 0.197 0.1905 Root MSE 12.228 11.798 12.227 11.798 13938 9670 14938 9670 ( *** ** *