橡99.表紙・裏表紙.doc

JBICI Research Paper No.18

Research Paper

i 4 14 8

i ii iv viii xi 1 12 1.1 12 1.2 12 1.3 13 14 2.1 14 2.1.1 14 2.1.2 14 2.1.3 17 2.2 20 2.2.1 20 2.2.2 28 2.2.3 35 2.2.4 41 2.3 50 2.4 51 52 3.1 52 3.1.1 52 3.1.2 54 3.1.3 56 3.2 56 3.3 2015 57 3.3.1 57 3.3.2 71 3.3.3 83 3.3.4 2020 87 3.3.5 96 ii

3.3.6 102 107 4.1 107 4.1.1 107 4.1.2 107 4.2 109 4.2.1 109 4.2.2 116 4.2.3 116 117 5.1 117 5.2 117 5.3 117 5.4 118 120 123 124 iii

13 21 22 24 24 27 29 29 31 31 32 33 35 36 36 37 37 39 40 41 42 42 43 45 45 46 49 53 53 56 58 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 iv

62 63 63 64 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 85 86 87 88 88 89 89 97 98 98 99 99 105 111 112 113 114 114 118 120 14 24 25 32 38 v

45 47 57 58 70 71 71 72 72 72 73 73 73 74 74 74 75 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 79 79 79 80 80 80 81 81 81 82 84 vi

84 87 90 90 91 91 91 92 92 92 93 93 93 94 94 94 95 100 101 104 108 108 111 112 vii

ADB ASEAN BOT CCGT CEEP CEPC Cigre CLDLO DSM DSS EAC EdC EdL EdP EGAT EGCO EPDC EREPC ERLDLC ERLDLO EUE EVN FIRR FFC F/S FTC GDP GMS GNP GT HPP HVDC IDE-JETRO IE IMF Asian Development Bank Association of South East Asian Nations Build, Operate and Transfer Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Committee for Energy and Electric Power Central Electric Power Council Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Électriques (in French) International Council on Large Electric Systems (in English) Central Load Dispatching Liaison Office Demand Side Management Daily Start & Stop Electricity Authority of Cambodia Electricite du Cambodge Electricite du Laos Electricite de Province Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Electricity Generating Public Company Limited Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. Eastern Regional Electric Power Council Eastern Regional Load Dispatching Liaison Committee Eastern Regional Load Dispatching Liaison Office Expected Undelivered Energy Electricity of Vietnam Financial Internal Rate of Return Flat Frequency Control Feasibility Study Flat Tie line Control Gross Domestic Product Greater Mekong Subregion Gross National Product Gas Turbine Hydro Power Plant High Voltage Direct Current Institute of Developing Economies - Japan External Trade Organization Institute of Energy International Monetary Fund viii

IPP Independent Power Producer JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JV Joint Venture LLDC Least Less Developed Countries LNCE Lao National Committee for Energy LOLE Loss-of-Load Expectation LOLP Loss-of-Load Probability MEA Metropolitan Electricity Authority MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance (Cambodia) MIME Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (Cambodia) MIH Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts (Laos) MOI Ministry of Industry (Vietnam) MOU Minute of Understanding MP Master Plan MUS$ Million US Dollars NEDO New Energy and industrial technology Development Organization NEPO National Energy Policy Office NLDC Northern Load Dispatching Center O&M Operation & Maintenance PEA Provincial Electricity Authority PDPAT Power Development Planning Assist Tool PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPSs Power Producer and Suppliers PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility PT&D Power Transmission & Distribution Project RETICS Reliability Evaluation Tool for Inter-Connected System SADEP Special Assistance for Development Policy and Projects SAPROF Special Assistance for Project Formation SCADA system Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition system SPP Small Power Plant SPREP Southern Provincial Rural Electrification Project SCGT Single Cycle Gas Turbine ST Steam Turbine TA Technical Assistance TBC Tie line load frequency Bias Control TCF Tera Cubic Feet TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company TLFS Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee ix

TNB TPP WASP WB Tenaga National Berhad Thermal Power Plant Wien Automatic System Planning Package World Bank x

xi

1 13 8 14 3 8 2 14 2 ( ) 1

10% 6% 9% 2015 2000 7 6 2.5 4 2015 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam 2000 2015 2015 Hydro Gas + Oil Coal Other 150 MW 172 MW 14,918 MW 4,477 MW 694 MW 612 MW 38,519 MW 17,847 MW 1,100 MW 790 MW 46,900 MW 25,800 MW 26% 31% 43% 100% 25% 19% 56% 8% 13% 37% 42% 1 2 2

2 10 2015 Base Case RETICS PDPAT IPP Base Laos 1 Laos 2 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam L L L V V T T T V C C C Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia 3 Laos 4 Laos 5 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam T L V L L T V T V C C C Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia 6 Laos 7 Laos 8 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam T L L L V T V T V C C C Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia 9 Laos 10 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam L L V V T T C C Cambodia Cambodia 3 3

Case 4 6 9 3 400MW MW MW Case 1 1000-370 Case 2 1000-370 Case 3 1000-390 Case 4 100-35 Case 5 1000-410 Case 6 100-100 Case 7 500-410 Case 8 500-410 Case 9 100-80 Case 10 500-410 4 10 Case 2 5 10 15 15% 63 15 945 Case 2 5 10 15 15% Unit: MUS$/yr Case MW O&M Case 1-328 36 3 7-27 -53-34 Case 2-338 15 1 5-29 -55-63 Case 3-434 40 4 11-43 -14-2 Case 4-18 2 0 1-2 -8-7 Case 5-388 36 3 10-40 -57-48 Case 6-51 4 1 4-7 -27-25 Case 7-419 43 4 8-39 -52-36 Case 8-422 56 5 9-40 -56-26 Case 9-40 3 0 3-10 -4-8 Case 10-320 29 3 5-30 -48-41 4

2015 4 Case 2 5 7 10 2020 5 6 Case 2 N Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 4 5

2 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia 7 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia 5 Laos Thailand Vietnam L T V C Cambodia 10 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia 4 1 4 BOT O&M FIRR A A B P kwh B a / kwh < b / kwh a ( /kwh) b ( /kwh) A P kwh a /kwh B P kwh b /kwh P kwh b /kwh P kwh a /kwh P b a A B 6

2 Case 2 25 0.5 /kwh 1.5/kWh FIRR 6% 2015 2020 FIRR 15% Case 2 2015 Case 2 / kwh 25 20 15 2 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia 1.0 5.90% 4.78% 2.60% 1.5 6.37% 5.30% 3.19% 2.0 1.98% 0.43% -2.41% 2.5 1.50% -0.10% -3.03% 3 1/50 7

8 1 O&M 2 1 2 4 LOLE Loss-of-Load Expectation 24hr LOLE

3 4 Case 2 5 7 10 1 4. JBIC SAPROF JICA 2 9

3 3 1 Case 2 15 15 30 1.0 30 1.8% 25 2.2% 3 10

Case 2 25.0 20.0 15 15.0% 30 1.0% 30 1.8% 30 2.2% 21.0 MUS$ 15.0 10.0 5.0 9.8 10.2 11.0 0.0 2 1 11

1990 1 1 13 9 16 29 2 13 11 25 12 5 2 14 2 21 22 12

13 1-1 1-1 3.3.3 3.3.1 ( ) 3.3.2 3.3.5 4 4.1 4.2 4 3.3.6 3.3.5 3 3.3.3 3.3.1 ( ) 3.3.2 3.3.5 4 4.1 4.2 4 3.3.6 3.3.5 3

2001 9 11 4 4 2-1 2-1 1 GDP 2-1 1,140 495 6,147 7,768 /km 2 63 21 120 234 GDP 31 12 1,250 264 1 GDP / 271 283 2,045 340 1 GNP / 253 372 MW 123 165 14,918 4,477 GWh/ 627 639 96,780 26,000 % 62.0 57.2 75.3 62.9 % 20 34 82 72 GW 10 27 15 16 0.5 1.0 9 6 TCF 1.5 3.5 33 5 24 35 2.1.2 2.1.3 1 1 1 14

1997 7 GDP 1996 3.5 98 1.5 1999 6.7 GDP 2000 5.4 1 GDP 36 2000 2 GDP 30.9 2000 3 GNP 253 2000 4 0.5 2000 5 6 2000 1998 a 10.5 1.1 b 14.3 7 1 3,880 2000 2 1975 1986 7 2001 2020 LLDC 3 1994 6 1 2 GDP 1,220 1999 3 GDP 283 1999 4 GDP 5.2 1999 5 134 1999 6 7 1999 a 310.9 15

b 524.6 8 Kip 1 8,200 2001 2 3 1980 1997 7 IMF 1999 2001 2 1 1996 GNP 9 28.6 GNP 5 2 GDP 1,250 1999 3 GDP 2,045 1999 4 4.2 1999 5 0.3 1999 6 5.2 1999 7 1999 1998 1999 a 584 IC b 499 1999 IC 8 1 45.45 2001 3 4 1989 1995 1996 9 1997 1999 4.8 2000 2000 6.7 16

1 2 GDP 264 1998 IMF 3 GNP 372 1999 IMF 4 6.7 2000 5-0.6 2000 6 7.4 1999 7 2000 2000 1999 a 143 b 152 8 Dong 1 14,071 2000 6 9 374 2000 12 1 2 1 1,400 3,600mm 85 5 12GW 1995 Asian Development Bank: ADB 8.6GW Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy: MIME 10GW 2 1999 17

2 East West Center 5,000 1 1 5,000 3 5,000 3 40 1960 1980 20 1996 62 2 3 90% 1 26.5GW 18GW 30 2% 23 Memorandum of Understanding 2 3 P.S. 3 1998 18

3 1,000 1994 4 90% 3% 1991 1994 3 4 1 15GW 2000 4 26 3,900MW 3,900MW 2,900MW 1,000MW 11GW 74 2 9.1 3 33.3 4.0 29.3 4 24 Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand: EGAT 4 EGAT. 2000b. 19

2.6GW 5.9GW 4 5 1 ADB 3,000 kwh/ 1,810 kwh/ 890 kwh/ 300 kwh/ 820 kwh/ 15.6GW 60 1994 Hoa Bihn 240MW 8 2,850MW 2 1996 1 6 16 / 3 Lan Tay 420 m 3 Lan Do 140 m 3 Bach Ho 280 m 3 Dai Hung Rong 600 m 3 1,440 m 3 4 35 92.4 0.3 7.3 Cam Pha 38.5 Hon Gay 13.7 Uong Bi 37.7 3 89.9 1 1996 MIME MIME Ministry of Economy and Finance: MEF Electricite du Cambodge: EdC 5 1999 20

2001 2 2 Electricity Authority of Cambodia: EAC MIME MIME EAC Power Purchase Agreement PPA MIME EdC EdC Phnom Penh Siem Reap Sihanoukvilie Pong Cham Takeo Battambang 6 MIME Electricite de Province: EdP MIME EdP EdC MIME EAC EdC 2 60% 6 1997 2000 4 11% 71.1MW 2000 4 30 2-1 2000 396GWh 62 MW 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 396GWh 62.0 0 6 12 18 EdC 2-1 6 MIME. 1999. 21

7 8 2-2 12 MW 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 MW GWh Power Transmission Master Plan & Rural Electrification Strategy, June 1998, World Bank 2-2 0 GWh 2007 GWh MW 1 2 3 4 GDP 5 22 / GDP 6 16 / GDP 4 27 / 23 7 12 /kwh EdC 16 /kwh 8 EdC 25 30MW 1999 22

600 1kWh 1US$/ 3 4 1 4$ EdC GDP 23 9 2006 2010 2006 2007 2009 2010 40% 62% 2015 10 2-3 4 MW 2010 2015 2000 4.8 6.9 2000 2020 11.7% GWh 2010 2015 2000 4.8 6.9 2000 2020 11.7% 9 MIME. 1999. 10 2000 23

MW 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR GWh 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR 2-3 MW 2-4 GWh 3 1 EdC EdP 129MW 11 2-2 2-2 MW Phnom Penh IPP1 35.0 IPP IPP 15.0 IPP C2 18.0 EdC C3 15.4 EdC C5 10.0 EdC C6 18.6 EdC Siem Reap 4.0 EdC Kampong Cham 2.0 IPP Takeo 0.9 EdC Sihanoukville 10.0 EdC 128.9 EdC Annual Report, 2000, EdC 2 2020 11 EdC. 2000. 24

2008 1 3 1998 Transmission Master Plan & Rural Electrification Strategy 12 MIME EdC JICA MIME 1999 1 MIME Cambodia Power Sector Strategy 1999-2016 MP 2016 9 753MW 2-3 EdC 5 425MW Independent Power Producer: IPP 4 330MW MP 2 3 IPP F/S 2-3 MW Phnom Penh IPP-2 CCGT 60 2008 Kirirom Hydro 12 2002 CITEC BOT Sihanoukville IPP-3 SCGT 90 2006 F/S Sihanoukville IPP-4 CCGT 90 2008 F/S Kamchay Hydro 128 2008 F/S Battambang 1&2 Hydro 60 2011 Stung Atay Hydro 100 2012 Sihanoukville IPP-5 SCGT 90 2014 Middle Stung Russei Chrum Hydro 125 2016 EdC 425 IPP 330 EdC Annual Report, 2000, EdC 12 HECEC 25

4 1 EdC 15.5 /kwh MIME 1 50kWh 43% 5 40% 13 Energy Security ADB Greater Mekong Subregion GMS Energy Security 2 PEA 7 1 22kV 1 5.6MW 3 a 2004 2005 80MW 2005 200MW PPA 2000 6 24 220kV 120km 130km 200MW 410mm2 2 2 b 3 Banteay Meanchey Siem Reap Battambang PPA 115kV 22kV 20 30MW Electricity Generating Public Company Limited EGCO BOT Build-Operate-Transfer EGCO EdC 13 15% 26

5 1 15kV 6.3kV 4.4kV 3 380/220V 15kV 9 22kV 380/220V 2 22 V 380/220V 2 2 IPP Phnom Penh Battambang Pursat 2016 Phnom Penh - Pursat Phnom Penh Phnom Penh Phnom Penh Power Rehabilitation Project 2002 Thailand - Banteay Meanchey - Battambang 115kV 2004 Vietnam - Takeo - Phnom Penh 220kV 14 EGAT EGCO Rural Electrification and Transmission Project EdC 2-5 1991 2000 35% 15 % 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 EdC Annual Report, 2000, EdC 2-5 EdC 14 230kV 27

6 C5 10.0MW C6 18.6MW 50Hz 0.5 22kV 15kV 220V 10% 50 100% 30 15 100% 30 60 7 20% 4 1 90% ADB Banlung Kampong Spue Kampot Prey Veng Serey Sophon Stung Trey Svay Rieng Takeo 8 Provincial Power Supply 1 Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts: MIH Electricite du Laos: EdL MIH BOT MIH EdL Lao National Committee for Energy LNCE Committee for and Electric Power: CEEP 2 1997 2000 4 14% ADB 2 15 10 10% 2020 800MW 16 2-6 15-1 5 1-2 2 5 4 4 16 EdL. 2001. 28

MW 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 GWh Power Development Plan up to 2020, July 2001, EdL 2-6 0 GWh 4 2000 4 3 2-7 MW 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 490GWh 57.2 0 6 12 18 EdL 2-7 EdL 2005 44.7% 2010 48.3% 2015 51.4% 2020 53.1% 17 2000 2000 57.2% EdL 17 EdL. 2001. 29

3 GDP GDP GDP 18 ADB Power Sector Strategy Study MWh MW -1-2 4 2 2010 1 6 / 40kWh 256,000 2010 190,000 2,100GWh 2010 280,000 180GWh 2,280GWh 26 10 2000 25 2005 20 16 2000 2-8 9 18 2000 57% 43% 30

MW 2010 2015 2000 3.7 5.6 2000 2020 10.6% GWh 2010 2015 2000 3.7 5.6 2000 2020 10.6% MW 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR GW 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR 2-8 MW 2-9 GWh 3 1 640.7MW 39 628.0MW 98% 14 12.7MW 2% 2-4 BOT IPP 99% 19 2 1 2015 20 5,937MW EdL 6 295MW IPP 14 5,642MW IPP Nam Theun 2 20 2-10 11 19 IPP Royalty IPP 20 60% Nam Theun2 25% ADB 20 Nam Theun 2 TA 2001 4 IMF PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility 400 US$ 3 31

2-4 MW Theun Hinboun 210.0 BOT 1998 Nam Ngum 1 21 150.0 EdL 1971 Houay Ho 152.1 BOT 1999 Nam Leuk 60.0 EdL 2000 Xeset 1 45.0 EdL 1991 Selabam 5.0 EdL 1969 Nam Phao 1.6 1995 Nam Ko 1.5 1997 Nam Dong 1.0 EdL 1970 MicroP/S 30 1.8 628.0 2000 2 MW 9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 IPP EdL EdL 2-10 21 Nam Ngum 12 1971 32

GWh 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 Power Sector Strategy Study, 2001, ADB 2-11 3 25% 1 22 2 23 2000 76% 10 2005 Nam Mang 3 2003 2005 25% 4 1 115kV 3 Nam Ngum Nam Leuk 210.0MW 24 22 IPP Theun Hinboun Houay Ho 2 4 23 IPP 50% 24 EGAT EdL PPA Baht 50% 1US$ = 28Baht 50% 1.22Baht/kWh 1.14Baht/kWh 0.5 /kwh kwh 2 1 33

2 IPP 2006 3,000MW 2010 1,500 2,000MW MOU MOU 5 1 1 5 1 2 2 5 4 4 22kV IPP Theun Hinboun Houay Ho 230kV EGAT 115kV PEA 22kV EVN 35kV 2 1 ADB Northern Area Rural Power Distribution Project former Northern Area Rural and Small Towns 2 Southern Provinces Rural Electrification Project 4 1 2 2020 JICA 6 25 50Hz 1% 115kV 5% Phone Tong 26 Phone Tong Nam Ngum Nam Ngum 1 1 5 8 9 IPP 25 EdL 26 1988 1 34

2 7 1999 34% 3 2020 90% 27 ADB 2-12 % 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 Power Sector Strategy Study, 2001, ADB 2-12 1 EGAT EGCO IPP 2000 IPP Small Power Producer: SPP Metropolitan Electricity Authority: MEA 2 Provincial Electricity Authority: PEA MEA 1992 12 1996 3 90 2000 3 National Energy Policy Office: NEPO 2003 2 EGAT MEA PEA 27 35

NEPO Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee: TLFS 1998 1999 2000 7% 6 7% 2-13 2000 4 5 2-14 MW 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 GWh MW EGAT 0 GWh 2-13 MW 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 98,636GWh 75.3 0 6 12 18 EGAT 2-14 GDP End User Method GWh MW PEA MEA 36

28 3 1 200MW 1 2017 2017 2020 5 2020 2016 2-15 16 MW 2010 2015 2000 1.9 2.6 2000 2020 6.1% GWh 2010 2015 2000 1.9 2.5 2000 2020 6.0% % 2010 73% 2015 73% MW 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR GWh 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR 2-15 MW 2-16 GWh 28 NEPO 37

3 1 29 EGAT 22,269.0MW 76.5% EGAT 23.5% EGAT 2-5 2-5 EGAT MW 7,962.5 5,534.6 2,880.0 656.0 6.0 0.5 17,039.6 EGAT EGCO REGCO: Rayong Electricity Generating Co., Ltd. 1,232.0 KEGCO: Khanom Electricity Generating Co., Ltd. 824.0 IPT: Independent Power Thailand Co., Ltd. 700.0 TECO: Tri Energy Co., Ltd. 700.0 SPPs: Small Power Producers 1,433.4 DEDP: Department of Energy Devfelopment and Promotion 0.0 Theun-Hinboun 214.0 Houay Ho 126.0 5,229.4 22,269.00 EGAT Annual Report 2000, 2000, EGAT 2 30 LOLP Loss-of-Load Probability 24h/ 25% 70% Take or Pay 3 2000 5 Power Development Plan 99-02 2000 27% 2001 2001 34% 25% 15 24% 29 EGAT. 2000a. 30 NEPO EGAT 38

2011 2-17 MW 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 ( Power Development Plan 99-02, May 2000, EGAT 2-17 4 31 1 EGAT MEA PEA EGAT NEPO 13% 2 26% 3 33% 2 IPP 2 340MW EGAT 2 PEA Bokeo Xaignabouly Khammuane 132/115kV Tenaga National Berhad: TNB EGAT 80MW EGAT TNB 50MW 31 NEPO EGAT 39

32 300MW 3 MOU : 2008 3,000MW Nam Theun2 : 2010 1,500MW : 2017 3,000MW 500kV 5 230kV 500kV 230kV 110kV 115kV 2 IPP N 1 1 2-18 % 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Power Development Plan 99-02, May 2000, EGAT 2-18 32 HVDC 300MW 120km 2001 10 40

6 33 EGAT 5% 2% 8% 50Hz 0.1Hz 12:00 EGAT IPP 16:00 7 100% 2-19 % 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1987 1992 1997 Power Development Plan 99-02, May 2000, EGAT 2-19 1 Ministry of Industry: MOI Electricity of Vietnam: EVN EVN Institute of Energy: IE 2 1997 2000 4 14% IE 10% 2-20 33 NEPO EGAT 41

MW 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 MW) GWh) THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN 2-20 0 GWh 5,500MW 2000 11 28 2-21 2020 2-22 6000 5000 MW 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 6 12 18 EVN 2-21 42

GWh 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN 2-22 EVN 5 1 3 5 2000 2005 3 2 2005 2020 GDP MW GWh % GDP % GDP 80 90 43

DSM Demand Side Management 1991 1999 GDP 1.89 GDP 1999 2000 1.82 2001 2005 1.62 2006 2010 1.48 2011 2020 1.39 1998 2020 1.50 1999 0.655 2010 0.705 DSM 2-21 1 2-23 24 MW 2010 2015 2000 2.6 4.0 2000 2020 9.4% GWh 2010 2015 2000 2.7 4.2 2000 2020 9. % % 2010 69% 2015 70% 44

MW 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR GWh 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR 2-23 MW 2-24 GWh 3 1 EVN 5,679MW IPP 51% 42% IPP 7% 2-6 2-6 MW HYDROPOWER PLANTS 2,913 COAL-FIRED TPP 645 OIL-FIRED TPP 198 GAS TURBINE TPP 1,152 DIESEL PP 397 IPP 375 TOTAL 5,679 EVN Annual Report 1999, 1999, EVN 2 2001 6 2,580MW 2002 2005 12 3,852MW 2006 2010 15 5,723MW 2002 2005 700MW 2-25 2-7 2,000MW 45

3 LOLE 24hr MW 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 - THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN 2-25 46

2-7 MW Pha Lai 2 TPP 600 Yaly HPP 3&4 360 2001 Ham Thuan HPP 1 150 Da Mi HPP 1 89 Phu My 1 ST 370 Total 1,569 Ba Ria add-on 306-2 GT 56 Ham Thuan HPP 2 150 Da Mi HPP 2 89 Phu My 2.1 ST 143 Na Duong TPP 100 Phu My 4 GT 288 Can Don HPP 72 Phu My 2.1 ST extension 140 Cao Ngan TPP 100 Phu My 4 ST 143 2002 2005 Phu My 2.2 GT 480 Omon TPP #1 300 Phu My 2.2 ST 240 Cam Pha TPP #1 150 Uong Bi TPP extension 300 Omon TPP #2 300 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #1 360 Dai Binh HPP 300 Rao Quan HPP 70 Geo-Thermal Power 50 Total 3,831 Se San3 HPP 273 Cua Dat HPP 120 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #2 360 Geo-Thermal Power 50 imported from Lao 300 Na Hang HPP Dai Thi 300 Thai Binh gas turbine C/C 360 A Vuong HPP 170 Hai Phong TPP #1 300 Ban Mai HPP Ban La 260 Dong Nai 3 HPP 240 2006 2010 Hai Phong TPP #2 300 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #3 360 Dong Nai 4 HPP 270 imported from Lao 400 Cam Pha TPP#2 150 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #3 360 Quang Ninh TPP #1 300 imported from Lao 300 Pleikrong HPP 120 Song Ba Ha HPP 200 Omon Gas-TPP #3 extension 300 Total 5,793 47

4 34 1 Huaphan Savannakhet 35kV 2 2009 400MW 2012 1,400MW PPA 2020 2,000MW 2 2 F/S 2003 220kV 2004 80MW 2005 200MW 3 1.8MW 5 500kV 220kV 2 110kV 66kV 110kV 22kV 35kV 2010 500kV 2,416km 220kV 4,414km 110kV 7,757km 15 2012 10 2-26 34 EVN 48

25 % 20 15 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN 2-26 6 35 1 75% 30% 40% Hoa Binh Tri An Hoa Binh 50.0 0.2Hz 5% DSS Daily Start & Stop 2 Pha Lai 5 10% Hoa Binh Hoa Binh 8 8 1 2 IPP MWh EVN Energy Charge Hiep Phuoc IPP 375MW 60MW 300MW IPP Phu My 3 35 EVN IE 49

6,000 IPP IPP BOT IPP Energy Charge Capacity Charge 2 WASP Wien Automatic System Planning Package Similar Date Forecast 7 2000 72% 500kV MOI 1 JBIC JBIC 1969 2 1957 Yanhee Multipurpose Project 1980 36 1999 Power Trade Strategy for the Greater Mekong Sub-Region 36 ADB GMS TA ADB 50

3 ADB GMS ADB 1995 Sub-regional Energy Sector Study for the Greater Mekong Sub-region Policy Framework 4 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Power Grid 2020 ASEAN EGAT Tenaga National Berhad: TNB 2002 3 ASEAN 2002 7 ASEAN 1 1996 Mekong Integrated Transmission System Study Basin-Wide ADB Regional Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in the GMS 2 GMS 3 GMS EGAT ADB 51

3 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 LOLE Loss-of-Load Expectation LOLP Loss-of-Load Probability EUE Expected Undelivered Energy LOLE LOLE LOLE LOLE 52

3 LOLE LOLE LOLE P i H i Pi Hi 3-1 LOLE 3-2 P i Hi LOLE (MW) LOLE Pi 0 20hrs Hi 8760hrs 10% 3-1 LOLE 3-2 LOLE 4 12 JETRO EGAT 6 RETICS 5 RETICS 53

54 RETICS RETICS LOLE LOLE LOLE LOLE 1 kwh 8760 ($/kcal) 860(kcal/kWh)

2 3 PDPAT 20 PDPAT 4 PDPAT RETICS 5 55

Financial Internal Rate of Return: FIRR 3-3 A region B region A system B system A region B region A system B system Load Load Load Load 3-3 3-3 2 B B A A 4 Udon Thani-1 2 Phone-Tong 56

37 10 3-5-1 10 2015 2020 4 1 2015 LOLE 3-1 3-4 3-1 2015 LOLE hr hr % 160 29 10 24 4 15 24 3 12 24 1hr 27 37 Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul 2000 IDE-JETRO 57

Total: 1,100 MW Total: 790 MW Others Hydro Hydro 26% 31% 100% Total: 46,900 MW Coal Hydro 25% 19% Total: 25,800 MW Coal 13% Others 8% Hydro 42% Gas+Oil 43% Gas+Oil Gas+Oil 56% 37% 3-4 2015 3 2 2015 4 10 3-5-1 10 24hr 2015 24hr Base Case 100MW 3-5-0 3-2 Base Case 38 3% 5% 3-2 Base Case Total MW 454 38,519 17,847 548 - MW 573 45,984 20,866 1,038 68,461 hr 24 24 24 24-11.0 9.2 8.6 8.8-38 Base Case 10,000MW 2015 2015 2015 10,000MW 58

Base Case Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam 3-5-0 Base Case Case 1 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia 3-5-1 Case 1: - - 59

Case 2 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam 3-5-2 Case 2: - - Case 3 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia 3-5-3 Case 3: - - 60

Case 4 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam 3-5-4 Case 4: - Case 5 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia 3-5-5 Case 5: - - - 61

Case 6 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam 3-5-6 Case 6: - - Case 7 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia 3-5-7 Case 7: - - - 62

Case 8 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam 3-5-8 Case 8: - - - - Case 9 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia 3-5-9 Case 9: - 63

Case 10 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam 3-5-10 Case 10: - - - - 64

a Case 1 3-5-1 3-6 2015 1,000MW 370MW 400 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-6 Case 1 b Case 2 3-5-2 Nam Theun 1,100MW 650MW Case 2 3-7 1,000MW 370MW 400 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-7 Case 2 65

c Case 3 3-5-3 2015 3-8 1,000MW 390MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-8 Case 3 d Case 4 3-5-4 2015 3-9 100MW 35MW 50 Cambodia Vietnam Total 40 Reduction MW 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Capacity MW 3-9 Case 4 66

e Case 5 3-5-5 Case 2 Case 5 3-10 1,000MW 410MW Reduction MW 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-10 Case 5 f Case 6 3-5-6 Case 2 5 Case 6 3-11 100MW 100MW 150 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Reduction MW 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Capacity MW 3-11 Case 6 67

(g) Case 7 3-5-7 2 Case 2 Case 7 3-12 500MW 410MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-12 Case 7 h Case 8 3-5-8 Case 7 Case 2 Case 8 3-13 500MW 410MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-13 Case 8 68

i Case 9 3-5-9 Case 9 3-14 100MW 40MW Reduction MW 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Cambodia Laos Thailand Total 0 50 100 150 200 Capacity MW 3-14 Case 9 j Case 10 3-5-10 Case 8 Case 2 Case 10 3-15 500MW 410MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Capacity MW 3-15 Case 10 69

k 3-3 3-3 MW MW Case 1 1000-370 Case 2 1000-370 Case 3 1000-390 Case 4 100-35 Case 5 1000-410 Case 6 100-100 Case 7 500-410 Case 8 500-410 Case 9 100-80 Case 10 500-410 70

2015 3-4 10% 1 2.5% Power Exchange Rate Reserve Margin Shortage Economical Power Exchange 10 /kwh 3-4 Unit: US$/kW Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Hydro 1,200 940 2,360 830 1,200 Gas C/C 547-453 407 Coal - - 727 764 Unit: /10 3 kcal Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Hydro 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Gas 1.32-1.34 1.22 Coal - - 1.21 0.52 Oil 1.81-1.81 1.74 Diesel 5.52-2.99 3.40 Base Case 3-5-0 3-5 3-5 2015 Base Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 81 138 3,668 1,942 5,828 59 0 5,692 1,776 7,527 - -13 13 - - 140 125 9,373 3,718 13,356 - - - - 1 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 109.4 360.6 /kwh 5.7 4.6 3.8 3.4 3.7 71

1 a Case 1 Case 1 1,000MW 3-6 7 8 8MW 70MW 250MW 27MUS /yr 53MUS /yr 3-6 Case 1 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 138 3,661 1,921 5,720 0 5,625 1,790 7,415-25 52-27 - 113 9,338 3,685 13,135 - - - 8 TWh 2.8 245.9 109.4 358.1 /kwh 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -8-139 -223-370 3-7 Case 1 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -1-7 -20-27 0-67 +14-53 -12 +39-27 - -13-35 -33-80 - - - +7 3-8 Case 1 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +1.1 0.0 +0.3 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - -0.0-0.0-0.0 Coal - -1.6 +0.2-1.4 Gas - -0.5 +0.6 +0.0 Oil - -0.0 +0.0-0.0 Diesel - 0.0 +0.1 +0.1 Total +1.1-2.2 +1.1 +0.0 Purchase -1.1 +2.2-1.1-72

b Case 2 Case 2 1,000MW 3-9 10 11 Case 2 8MW 100MW 230MW 29MUS$/yr 55MUS$/yr 3-9 Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 138 3,658 1,923 5,719 0 5,623 1,790 7,413-24 54-30 - 114 9,335 3,682 13,131 - - - 6 TWh 2.8 245.9 109.4 358.1 /kwh 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -8-134 -228-370 3-10 Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -1-9 -19-29 0-69 +14-55 -11 +41-30 - -12-37 -35-84 - - - +5 3-11 Case 2 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +1.1 0.0 +0.3 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - -0.0-0.0-0.0 Coal - -1.6 +0.2-1.4 Gas - -0.6 +0.6-0.0 Oil - -0.0 +0.0 +0.0 Diesel - 0.0 +0.1 +0.1 Total +1.1-2.2 +1.2 +0.0 Purchase -1.1 +2.3-1.2-73

c Case 3 Case 3 1,000MW 3-12 13 14 Case 3 42MW 150MW 220MW 100MW 22MW 43MUS$/yr 14MUS$/yr 3-12 Case 3 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 75 133 3,654 1,923 5,785 49 0 5,661 1,804 7,513 12-9 38-41 - 136 124 9,352 3,686 13,299 - - - - 12 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 109.4 360.6 /kwh 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -38-14 -117-221 -390 3-13 Case 3 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -5-6 -14-18 -43-11 0-31 +28-14 +12 +4 +24-41 - -5-2 -20-31 -57 - - - - +11 3-14 Case 3 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0-0.1 0.0 +0.3 +0.2 Pumped Hydro - - +0.4 +0.0 +0.4 Coal - - -0.6 +0.2-0.4 Gas -0.1 - -1.0 +1.2-0.0 Oil -0.2 - +0.4 +0.0 +0.3 Diesel +0.0-0.0 +0.0 +0.1 Total -0.3-0.1-0.8 +1.7 +0.6 Purchase +0.3 +0.1 +1.4-1.7-74

d Case 4 Case 4 100MW 3-15 16 17 Case 4 18MW 2MUS$/yr 8MUS$/yr 3-15 Case 4 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Vietnam Total 78 1,942 2,020 46 1,782 1,828 9-9 - 134 3,714 3,848 - - 1 TWh 2.5 109.4 111.9 /kwh 5.4 3.4 3.4 MW -15-19 -34 3-16 Case 4 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Vietnam Total -2 0-2 -13 +6-8 +9-9 - -7-3 -10 - - +1 3-17 Case 4 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 Pumped Hydro - +0.0 +0.0 Coal - +0.0 +0.0 Gas -0.2 +0.2 +0.0 Oil -0.1 0.0-0.1 Diesel -0.0 - -0.0 Total -0.3 +0.3 +0.0 Purchase +0.3-0.3-75

e Case 5 Case 5 1,000MW 3-18 19 20 Case 5 37MW 31MW 100MW 220MW 40MUS$/yr 57MUS$/yr 3-18 Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 76 131 3,658 1,923 5,788 48 0 5,631 1,791 7,470 12-24 45-33 - 136 107 9,335 3,681 13,259 - - - - 10 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 109.4 360.6 /kwh 5.5 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -37-18 -131-224 -410 3-19 Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -5-8 -9-18 -40-12 0-60 +15-57 +11-11 +33-33 - -5-18 -37-36 -97 - - - - +10 3-20 Case 5 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.0 0.0 +0.3 +1.3 Pumped Hydro - - +0.0-0.0 +0.0 Coal - - -1.4 +0.2-1.2 Gas -0.2 - -0.5 +0.7 +0.0 Oil -0.2 - -0.0 +0.0-0.2 Diesel +0.0-0.0 +0.0 +0.1 Total -0.3 +1.0-1.9 +1.3 +0.1 Purchase +0.3-1.0 +2.0-1.3-76

f Case 6 Case 6 100MW 3-21 22 23 Case 6 37MW 14MW 7MUS$/yr 27MUS$/yr 3-21 Case 6 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total 76 136 3,668 3,880 45 0 5,680 5,724 8-26 17-129 111 9,365 9,604 - - - 4 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 251.2 /kwh 5.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 MW -35-8 -57-100 3-22 Case 6 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total -5-2 0-7 -15 0-12 -27 +9-13 +5 - -11-15 -8-34 - - - +4 3-23 Case 6 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Hydro 0.0 +0.7 0.0 +0.7 Pumped Hydro - - -0.0-0.0 Coal - - -0.3-0.3 Gas -0.2 - -0.0-0.2 Oil -0.1 - -0.1-0.1 Diesel -0.0-0.0-0.0 Total -0.3 +0.7-0.5-0.1 Purchase +0.3-0.7 +0.4-77

g Case 7 500MW 3-24 25 26 Case 7 38MW 11MW 150MW 220MW 39MUS$/yr 52MUS$/yr 3-24 Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 76 136 3,654 1,923 5,789 48 0 5,638 1,790 7,475 13-26 46-33 - 136 111 9,337 3,680 13,264 - - - - 9 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 109.4 360.6 /kwh 5.5 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -36-17 -132-225 -410 3-25 Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -5-2 -14-18 -39-12 0-54 +15-52 +13-13 +33-33 - -4-15 -35-37 -91 - - - - +8 3-26 Case 7 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.1 0.0 +0.3 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - - +0.2-0.0 +0.1 Coal - - -1.1 +0.2-0.9 Gas -0.2 - -0.8 +0.6-0.3 Oil -0.2 - +0.1 +0.0-0.0 Diesel +0.0-0.0 +0.0 +0.1 Total -0.3 +1.1-1.7 +1.2 +0.3 Purchase +0.3-1.1 +2.0-1.2-78

h Case 8 Case 8 500MW 3-27 28 29 Case 8 41MW 11MW 150MW 220MW 40MUS$/yr 56MUS$/yr 3-27 Case 8 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 75 136 3,654 1,923 5,789 46 0 5,635 1,791 7,472 10-25 49-33 - 130 111 9,338 3,681 13,260 - - - - 9 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 109.4 360.6 /kwh 5.2 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -35-16 -131-228 -410 3-28 Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -5-2 -14-18 -40-14 0-57 +15-56 +9-12 +36-33 - -10-14 -34-36 -96 - - - - +9 3-29 Case 8 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.1 0.0 +0.3 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - - +0.2-0.0 +0.2 Coal - - -1.2 +0.2-1.0 Gas -0.2 - -0.8 +0.7-0.3 Oil -0.1 - +0.1 +0.0 +0.1 Diesel -0.0-0.0 +0.0 +0.0 Total -0.3 +1.1-1.8 +1.2-0.8 Purchase +0.3-1.1 +2.1-1.2-79

i Case 9 Case 9 100MW 3-30 31 32 Case 9 40MW 100MW 50MW 10MUS$/yr 4MUS$/yr Case 4 3-30 Case 9 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total 76 138 3,663 3,877 44 0 5,703 5,747 8-18 10-128 120 9,376 9,624 - - - 3 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 251.2 /kwh 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.8 MW -33-7 0-40 3-31 Case 9 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total -5 0-5 -10-15 0 +11-4 +9-5 -3 - -12-5 +3-14 - - - +3 3-32 Case 9 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Hydro 0.0 +0.2 0.0 +0.2 Pumped Hydro - - +0.0 +0.0 Coal - - +0.3 +0.3 Gas -0.2 - -0.5 +0.7 Oil -0.1 - +0.4 +0.3 Diesel -0.0-0 -0.0 Total -0.3 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 Purchase +0.3-0.2-0.1-80

j Case 10 Case 10 500MW 3-33 34 35 Case 10 39MW 11MW 50MW 220MW 30MUS$/yr 48MUS$/yr 3-33 Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 76 136 3,663 1,923 5,798 48 0 5,656 1,775 7,479 12-27 29-14 - 136 110 9,348 3,684 13,278 - - - - 5 TWh 2.5 2.8 245.9 109.4 360.6 /kwh 5.5 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.7 MW -38-18 -126-228 3-34 Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -5-2 -5-18 -30-12 0-35 -1-48 +12-14 +16-14 - -5-16 -24-34 -78 - - - - +5 3-35 Case 10 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.1 0.0 +0.3 +1.3 Pumped Hydro - - -0.0 +0.1 +0.1 Coal - - -0.8 +0.2-0.7 Gas -0.2 - -0.4-0.0-0.6 Oil -0.2 - +0.1 +0.0-0.1 Diesel +0.0-0.0 +0.0 +0.1 Total -0.3 +1.1-1.2 +0.6 +0.2 Purchase +0.3-1.1 +1.2-0.4-81

2 3-36 3-36 MUS$ Case 1 500kV 2 340km 104 1 3 500kV 3000MVA 66 170 500kV 2 360km 34 (147) Case 2 * 83 3 500kV 4600MVA 49 (101) (248) Case 3 500kV 2 520km 165 1 3 500kV 3000MVA 66 231 Case 4 110kV 2 100km 4 1 2 110kV 240MVA 4 8 Case 5 * 500kV 129 (213) 204 2 580km (316) 1 4 500kV 4600MVA 75 (103) Case 6 * 500kV 260km 9 (94) 110kV 220km 25 1 3 500kV 1800MVA (137) 16 (43) 110kV 120MVA 500kV Case 7 * 2 780km 180 (293) 243 220kV 2 100km (408) 1 4 500kV 5200MVA 63 (115) Case 8 * 500kV 2 1000km 251 (364) 322 220kV 2 100km (487) 1 4 500kV 5200MVA 71 (123) Case 9 110kV 2 220km 9 1 2 110kV 240MVA 4 13 500kV 2 360km 220kV 2 100km 115 (228) Case 10 * 169 110kV 2 220km (334) 1 4 500kV 4600MVA, 54 (106) 220kV 600 MVA 82

2015 15 20 25 8% 10% 15% O&M 1% 2% 1 15 15% 3-37 Case 2 Case 5 Case 10 Case 7 Case 2 Case 1 Case 4 Case 6 Case 9 Case 3 Case 4 Case 9 15 15% 25 8% 20 10% 3-38 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 83

3-37 15 15% Unit: MUS$/yr (MW) O&M Case 1-328 36 3 7 46-27 -53-80 -34 5 Case 2-338 15 1 5 21-29 -55-84 -63 1 Case 3-434 40 4 11 55-43 -14-57 -2 10 Case 4-18 2 0 1 3-2 - 8-10 -7 9 Case 5-388 36 3 10 49-40 -57-97 -48 2 Case 6-51 4 1 4 9-7 -27-34 -25 7 Case 7-419 43 4 8 55-39 -52-91 -36 4 Case 8-422 56 5 9 70-40 -56-96 -26 6 Case 9-90 3 0 3 6-10 -4-14 -8 8 Case 10-320 29 3 5 37-30 -48-78 -41 3 3-38 Unit: MUS$/yr 15 15% 20 10% 25 8% Case 1-34 -47-52 Case 2-63 -66-69 Case 3-2 -11-18 Case 4-7 -8-8 Case 5-48 -56-63 Case 6-25 -27-27 Case 7-36 -46-53 Case 8-26 -39-49 Case 9-8 -9-9 Case 10-41 -48-53 84

2 2 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 5 Case 7 Case 8 Case 10 Case 9 Case 1 Case 2 Case 5 10 3-16 250 200 GWh 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month EdL 3-16 2015 Base Case 85

Case 2 3-17 3-18 Case 9 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 4 2020 EdL 3-17 86

EGAT 3-18 2015 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 2020 2015 1 2020 2020 24hr Base Case 100MW 3-5-0 3-39 2015 Base Case 3-39 Base Case 2020 Unit: MW Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 601 733 47,405 26,854-771 1,352 57,984 30,536 90,643 hr 24 24 24 24-11.5 9.4 9.6 5.9-87

a 2020 Case 2 3-5-2 Case 2 2015 2020 Case 2 3-19 1,500MW 450MW 500 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Capacity MW 3-19 2020 Case 2 b 2020 Case 5 3-5-5 2015 2020 Case 5 3-20 1500MW 520MW 600 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 500 Reduction MW 400 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Capacity MW 3-20 2020 Case 5 88

c 2020 Case 7 3-5-7 2015 2020 Case 7 3-21 1000MW 520MW 600 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 500 Reduction MW 400 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Capacity MW 3-21 2020 Case 7 d 2020 Case 10 3-5-10 2015 2020 Case 10 3-22 1000MW 520MW 600 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 500 Reduction MW 400 300 200 100 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Capacity MW 3-22 2020 Case 10 89

e 3-40 2020 3-40 2020 Unit: MW 2020 2015 Case 2-450 -370 Case 5-520 -410 Case 7-520 -410 Case 10-520 -410 2 2020 2015 Case 2 5 7 10 2020 Base Case 3-5-0 3-41 3-41 2020 Base Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 118 182 4,561 2,978 7,840 42 0 7,428 2,788 10,257 - -13 13 - - 160 169 12,002 5,766 18,097 - - - - 1 TWh 3.3 3.7 303.1 167.0 477.1 /kwh 4.9 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.8 90

a Case 2 Case 2 2020 3-42 43 44 88MW 95MW 285MW 62MUS$/yr 67MUS$/yr 3-42 2020 Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 164 4,552 2,944 7,660 0 7,418 2,731 10,149-71 -32 103-93 11,938 5,778 17,809 - - - 5 TWh 3.7 303.1 167.0 473.8 /kwh 2.5 3.9 3.5 3.8 3-43 2020 Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -19-9 -34-62 0-9 -57-67 -58-46 +103 - -76-64 +12-129 - - - +4 3-44 2020 Case 2 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +1.3 0 +0.2 +1.5 Pumped Hydro - +0.2-0.1 +0.1 Coal - -0.5-1.8-2.4 Gas - +1.3 +0.3 +1.6 Oil - -0.4-0.0-0.5 Diesel - 0-0.0-0.0 Total +1.3 +0.5-1.5 +0.3 Purchase -1.3-0.2 +1.5-91

b Case 5 Case 5 2020 3-45 46 47 Case 5 70MW 116MW 40MW 270MW 61MUS$/yr 59MUS$/yr 3-45 2020 Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 112 164 4,558 2,945 7,779 43 0 7,418 2,737 10,199-8 -65-16 90-147 98 11,959 5,773 17,977 - - - - 11 TWh 3.3 3.7 303.1 167.0 477.1 /kwh 4.5 2.7 3.9 3.5 3.8 3-46 2020 Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -6-19 -4-33 -61 +1 0-9 -51-59 -8-52 -30 +90 - -12-70 -43 +6-120 - - - - +10 3-47 2020 Case 5 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.2 0 +0.2 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - - +0.2-0.0 +0.2 Coal - - -0.1-0.1-0.2 Gas +0.1 - +0.2 +0.4 +0.7 Oil 0 - -0.0-0.0-0.0 Diesel 0-0 -0.0-0.0 Total +0.1 +1.2 +0.2-1.3 +0.3 Purchase -0.1-1.2 +0.1 +1.2-92

c Case 7 Case 7 2020 3-48 49 50 Case 7 75MW 116MW 260MW 57MUS$/yr 61MUS$/yr 3-48 2020 Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 111 164 4,561 2,947 7,783 43 0 7,423 2,731 10,197-7 -66-20 +94-147 97 11,964 5,771 17,979 - - - - 10 TWh 3.3 3.7 303.1 167.0 477.1 /kwh 4.5 2.6 3.9 3.5 3.8 3-49 2020 Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -7-19 0-32 -57 +1 0-5 -57-61 -7-53 -34 +94 - -13-72 -38 +5-118 - - - - +9 3-50 2020 Case 7 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.2 0 +0.2 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - - +0.2-0.1 +0.1 Coal - - -0.3-1.7-2.0 Gas +0.1 - +0.5 +0.3 +0.9 Oil 0 - +0.0-0.0-0.0 Diesel 0-0 -0.1-0.1 Total +0.1 +1.2 +0.3-1.4 +0.3 Purchase -0.1-1.2-0.0 +1.4-93

d Case 10 Case 10 2020 3-51 52 53 Case 10 73MW 116MW 35MW 280MW 62MUS$/yr 59MUS$/yr 3-51 2020 Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 111 164 4,558 2,944 7,777 43 0 7,440 2,715 10,198-8 -69-41 118-147 95 11,957 5,777 17,976 - - - - 6 TWh 3.3 3.7 303.1 167.0 477.1 /kwh 4.5 2.6 3.9 3.5 3.8 3-52 2020 Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total -6-19 -3-34 -62 +1 0 +12-73 -59-8 -55-55 +118 - -13-74 -46 +11-121 - - - - +5 3-53 2020 Case 10 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.0 +1.2 0 +0.2 +1.4 Pumped Hydro - - +0.2-0.0 +0.1 Coal - - +0.4-1.9-1.5 Gas +0.1 - +0.8-0.3 +0.7 Oil 0 - -0.3-0.0-0.4 Diesel 0-0 -0.0-0.0 Total +0.1 +1.2 +1.1-2.0 +0.3 Purchase -0.1-1.2-0.8 +2.1-94

e 15 15% 3-54 2015 2020 2015 2015 3-54 2020 15 15 Unit: MUS$/yr MW O&M Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 2020-468 15 1 4 20-62 -67-129 -109 1 2015-338 15 1 5 21-29 -55-84 -63 1 2020-496 36 3 10 49-61 -59-120 -71 3 2015-388 36 3 10 49-40 -57-97 -48 2 2020-451 43 4 9 56-57 -61-118 -62 4 2015-419 43 4 8 55-39 -52-91 -36 4 2020-504 29 3 5 37-62 -59-121 -84 2 2015-320 29 3 5 37-30 -48-78 -41 3 95

Case 2 5 7 10 FIRR 1 FIRR C B Financial Internal Rate of Return: FIRR t= T Ct = t= T Bt t t (1 + R) (1 + R) t= 1 t= 1 T = Ct = t Bt = t R = FIRR 2 BOT O&M 1kWh O&M 96

A B 39 3-23 A A B P kwh B a ( /kwh) A P kwh a /kwh a /kwh < b /kwh b /kwh B P kwh b /kwh P kwh b /kwh P kwh a /kwh P b a P b a A B 3-23 3-24 Case 5 a < b 3-24 40 39 40 A 4 : 10 /kwh : 8 /kwh : 6 /kwh : 4 /kwh B 4 : 6 /kwh : 4 /kwh : 2 /kwh : 0 /kwh 2 /kwh 11 4 9 6 3 97

GWh 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 /kwh 3-24 Case 5 3-25 0 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 3-25 1.0 /kwh 20 15 10 5 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 /kwh 3-25 Case 98

3-25 0.5 1.5 1.0 2.5 FIRR 4 Case 2 3-26 3-27 GWh 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 /kwh 3-26 Case 2 20 15 10 5 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 /kwh 3-27 Case 2 99

FIRR 15 20 25 41 3 4 3 2015 FIRR 3-55 3-55 FIRR Case 2 25 0.5 /kwh 1.5 /kwh FIRR 6% Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 3-55 2015 FIRR 25 20 15 0.5 1.0 /kwh /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0.5 1.0 5.90% 4.78% 2.60% 1.5 6.37% 5.30% 3.19% 2.0 1.98% 0.43% -2.41% 2.5 1.50% -0.10% -3.03% 0.5 1.0 2.08% 0.55% -2.27% 1.5 2.33% 0.83% -1.95% 2.0-3.58% -5.88% -9.82% 2.5-3.31% -5.57% -9.45% 0.5 1.0-3.09% -5.32% -9.15% 1.5-1.08% -3.03% -6.45% 2.0-2.10% -12.55% -4.19% -16.25% -7.82% 2.5-1.65% -3.67% -7.21% 0.5 1.0-4.58% -7.03% -11.19% 1.5-0.31% -2.15% -5.41% 2.0-2.62% -4.78% -8.51% 2.5-2.28% -4.39% -8.06% 4 41 100

2015 5 2020 FIRR 2015 4 2020 3-56 2020 Case 2 25 0.5 /kwh 1.5 /kwh FIRR 19 1.0 2015 FIRR Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 3-56 2020 FIRR 25 20 15 0.5 1.0 /kwh /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0.5-5.11% -7.64% 1.0 11.58% 3.26% 10.93% 1.86% 9.49% -0.74% 1.5 19.42% 2.30% 19.14% 0.79% 18.36% -1.99% 2.0 18.16% 7.01% 17.83% 6.01% 16.97% 3.99% 2.5 13.12% 10.18% 12.56% 9.43% 11.28% 7.84% 0.5-1.26% -3.23% -6.69% 1.0 9.39% 2.75% 8.58% 1.30% 6.88% -1.40% 1.5 15.51% 0.28% 15.08% -1.48% 14.02% -4.63% 2.0 13.62% 3.71% 13.09% 2.37% 11.86% -0.17% 2.5 8.11% 6.02% 7.20% 4.92% 5.33% 2.76% 0.5 1.0-0.41% -9.00% -2.27% -12.14% -5.56% -17.28% 1.5 5.19% -10.95% 4.01% -14.41% 1.71% -19.98% 2.0 4.09% -4.82% 2.78% -7.30% 0.31% -11.51% 2.5 0.51% -1.83% -1.22% -3.88% -4.33% -7.45% 0.5 1.0 2.01% -5.03% 0.47% -7.55% -2.36% -11.80% 1.5 8.46% -6.44% 7.57% -9.17% 5.76% -13.73% 2.0 7.91% -1.42% 6.98% -3.41% 5.09% -6.90% 2.5 3.97% 1.53% 2.66% -0.07% 0.17% -2.99% 101

1 20 3 1 2 On-Grid 42 On-Grid Off-Grid IPP 43 42 2001 p208 43 2001 p208 102

2 44 1 1 2 3 4 5 A B C 3 2 JICA 2001 2010 25.2MW 3-57 30.3% 45 kwh 44 2001 45 1997 p192 103

3-57 MW 1999 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 25.2 13.4 37.7 54.5 57.0 59.5 67.0 13.4 41.2 58.2 60.8 63.5 92.2 JICA 2001 3 25.2 MW 8,760 30.3 % 66,900 MWh 1,181 46 5 67.0 [2010 ] / 13.4 [1999 ] 47 5,905 5,905 1,181 4,724 1$ = 8,000 kip 1 4,500 kip 48 4,500 kip 12 4,724 / 8,000 kip = 32,000 $ 2 kwh 160 kip 66,900 MWh 160 kip / kwh / 8,000 kip = 1,338 10 3 $ 3 1 + 2 = 32 10 3 + 1,338 10 3 = 1,370 10 3 $ kwh 1,370 10 3 $ / 66,900 MWh 0.020 $ / kwh 2.0 / kwh 30MVA 3-28 Case 2 5 49 2% 46 2001 p26 47 48 ADB. 2001a. p78 49 104

180.0 15.0 / kwh 170.0 10.0 5.0 2.0 4.6 4.1 170.0 0.0 Base Case 2 3-28 105

1 JICA MP 15,000 US$ / kw 2010 25.2 MW 30.3 8,760 h 25.2 MW 30.3 % = 67 GWh 12 67 GWh / 12 8,760 h = 64 MW 0.11746 20 10 64 MW 15,000 US$ / kw = 960 MUS$ 960 MUS$ 0.11746 = 113 MUS$ 113 MUS$ / 67 GWh = 170 /kwh 106

3 2015 2020 4 2020 4 2015 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 5 Case 7 Case 8 Case 10 370 410MW Case 4 Case 6 Case 9 Case 4 Case 9 Case 9 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 5 Case 6 Case 7 Case 8 Case 10 Case 3 Case 4 Case 9 1 107

4 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 Case 2 Case 1 Case 10 Case 8 2 Case 1 Case 8 4 4-1 4 2015 4-2 4-1 2015 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Case 2-29 -55-84 - -12-37 -35 Case 5-40 -57-97 -5-18 -37-36 Case 7-39 -52-91 -4-15 -35-37 Case 10-30 -48-78 -5-16 -24-34 4-2 2015 Unit: MUS$/yr 15 15% 20 10% 25 8% Case 2 21 18 16 Case 5 49 41 35 Case 7 55 45 38 Case 10 37 30 25 O&M 108

109 FIRR 6% 1 1 2 IPP IPP PPA 50 50

2 LOLE 24hr LOLE 3 Hoa Binh Son La 4 1 IPP Case2 5 7 10 IPP 110

2010 Case 2 1,000MW 260MW 4-1 300 LaoPDR Thailand Vietnam Total 250 Reduction MW 200 150 100 50 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Capacity MW 4-1 2010 Case 2 1,000MW 4-3 4-4 11MUS$/yr 47MUS$/yr 4-3 2010 Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 0 0-11 -11 0-48 +1-47 -13 +18-5 - -13-30 -15-58 - - - +4 TWh 1.8 184.2 70.4 256.4 111

4-4 2010 Case 2 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro +0.9 0 +0.6 +1.5 Pumped Hydro - +0.0 0 +0.0 Coal - -0.9 +0.1-0.8 Gas - -0.1-0.2-0.3 Oil - -0.2 +0.0-0.2 Diesel - 0 +0.0 +0.0 Total +0.9-1.2 +0.6-0.3 Purchase -0.9 +1.5-0.6-2 5 Divergence 2000 4 11 14 19 4-2 40,000 Thailand Vietnam 30,000 MW 20,000 10,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 hour 4-2 112

Case 1 4-3 2,000MW 1,200MW 370MW 3 Reduction MW 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Capacity MW 4-3 2015 4-3 6 51 4-4 Case 2 51 Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul, Noboru Seki, Yasushiro Yokosawa, Masahiko Mouri. 2001. 113

Case 11 Yunnan System Yunnan 1100MW + LAOS 100MW System Laos 650MW+ THAILAND System Thailan Cambodia CAMBODIA System VIETNAM System Vietnam 4-4 Case 11: - - - Case 11 4-5 2,000MW 1,080MW 1200 Laos Thailand Vietnam Yunnan Total 1000 Reduction MW 800 600 400 200 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Capacity MW 4-5 Case 11 114

4 7 1 FFC: Flat Frequency Control FTC: Flat Tie Line Control 2 FFC TBC: Tie Line Load Frequency Bias Control 3 TBC 2 115

BOT 3 LOLE 24hr O&M 2 1 1 3 52 SCADA System 52 1 2 116

3 2 3 4 3 4.2.1 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 JBIC SAPROF JICA 4 3 117

4.2.1(3) 4.2.1(4) 53 Case 2 15 15 30 1 30 1.8% 25 2.2% 3 5-1 15 15.0% 30 1.0% 30 1.8% 30 2.2% 25.0 20.0 21.0 MUS$ 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 9.8 10.2 11.0 1 5-1 Case 2 53 SCADA System 118

119

10-1 10 9 2,000km 250kV 60Hz 50Hz - 1 54 Central Electric Power Council Central Electric Power Committee Central Load Dispatching Liaison Office: CLDLO Bilateral Power Exchange Nationwide Power Exchange 54 http://www.cepc.gr.jp/ 120

Power Exchange for Mutually Balancing Demand and Supply Wide-Area Mutual Cooperative Power Exchange Power Exchange for Economical Operation Power Producer and Suppliers: PPSs 1 Power Exchange for Balancing Demand and Supply Using Hot Reserve Unscheduled Power Exchange for Balancing Demand and Supply 2 A Wide-Area Cooperative Power A 15 B Wide-Area Cooperative Power B A B 3 2001 4 1 121

2 22 13 1 17 17 30 17 30 18 18 19 2 19 19 30 19 30 20 20 21 13 22 8 12 30 1000kW 1/2 0.01 /kwh 122

50Hz Eastern Regional Electric Power Council Eastern Regional Electric Power Committee Eastern Regional Load Dispatching Liaison Committee 50Hz 50Hz Eastern Regional Load Dispatching Liaison Office 3 61% 13% 26% 3 3 123

http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/asia.html 1997 2001 1999 1999 10 (1998) 9 10 1999 10 11 2000 2 1999 1997 2000 ADB. 2001a. Lao Power Sector Study. 2001b. Power Sector Strategy Study (TA 3374-Lao) EdC. 2000. Electricite du Cambodge 2000 (Annual Report ) EdL. 2001. Power Development Plan up to 2020 EGAT. 2000a. Annual Report 2000. 2000b. EGAT Power Development Plan PDP 99-02 EVN. 1999. Annual Report 1999. 2001. The Master plan on Electric Power Development in Vietnam for the period of 2000-2010 perspective up to 2020 MIME. 1999. Cambodia Power Sector Strategy 1999-2016 Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul, Noboru Seki, Yasushiro Yokosawa, Masahiko Mouri. 2001. The Reliability Aspects of the Power Interconnection among the Mekong Sub-Region Countries, BULK POWER TRANSMISSION SYSTEM INTEGRATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, CIGRE INDIA. World Bank. 1998. Power Transmission Master Plan & Rural Electrification Strategy 124

JBICI Research Paper 1. Issues of Sustainable Economic Growth from the Perspective of the Four East Asian Countries 1999 12 2. Organizational Capacity of Executing Agencies in the Developing Countries: Case Studies on Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia 1999 12 3. Urban Development and Housing Sector in Viet Nam 1999 12 4. Urban Public Transportation in Viet Nam :Improving Regulatory Framework 1999 12 5. 1999 12 6. 2010 2000 3 7. BAAC 2000 11 8. 2000 11 9. 2001 2 10. Public Expenditure Management in Developing Countries 2001 3 11. INDIA: Fiscal Reform and Public Expenditure Management 12. Cash Crop Distribution Systems in the Philippines-Issues and Measures to Address Them- 2002 3 13. 2002 3 14. 2002 3 15. Foreign Direct Investment and Development: Where Do We Stand? 2002 6 16. Development Assistance Strategies in the 21 st Century: Global and Regional Issues (volume1 2) 2002 7 17. 4 2002 7 18. 2002 8 No.1 No.2 OECF Research Papers No.36 4 1999 7 OECF Research Papers No.37 1999 9 No.1~No.14 JBIC Research Paper Series 100-8144 1-4-1 03-5218-9720 03-3218-9846 http://www.jbic.go.jp/

JBICI Research Paper No.18 2002 8