Pluralistic Ignorance

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1 fukui@econ.tohoku.ac.jp 2001 9 1 Fukui (1998) Fukui (1998) Bicchieri and Fukui (1998) Carnegie Mellon Cristina Bicchieri

. 2 (norm) 2 They ask themselves, what is suitable to my position? what is usually done by persons of my station and pecuniary circumstances? or (worse still) what is usually done by persons of a station and circumstances superior to mine? I do not mean that they choose what is customary, in preference to what suits their own inclination. It does not occur to them to have any inclination, except for what is customary. (Mill 1989, p.61) 1

3 18 (de Tocqueville 1955, p.155) (Andersen 1994) 3 (common knowledge of rationality) (bounded rationality) 2

1977 (norm) (pluralistic ignorance) (Allport 1924, Miller and McFarland 1991) (Bikhchandani et al. 1992) 3

A B p (> 0.5) 1 p A A p 2 B (1 p) 2 2p(1 p) (likelihood ratio) 4 A (1 p) 2 B 5 4 (likelihood ratio) 5 Fukui (1998) Bicchieri and Fukui (1998) 4

(1) Kraus (1997) 6 (incorporation strategy; p. 388) (Lev 1988) 5

Sunder (1988) 7 8 (hypothetical compensation principle) A B A B A 6 The Uniform Commercial Code determines the content of most commercial law default rules by incorporating common merchant practices. (p. 377) 7 (quasi-legislative) (Sunder 1988, p. 39) 8 Perhaps the practice-based orientation of accounting standards widely used in Canada and in other countries of the world does make sense after all. (Sunder 1988, p. 41) 9 Kraus (1997) Boyd and Richardson (1985) Conlisk (1996) 6

B B A B B B 7

Sunder (1988) incorporationoriented 10 (2) 10 quasi-legislative strategy 8

(battle-of-the-sexes) R (A, A) (B, B) C (B, B) (A, A) (A, A) (B, B) 11 (1) 11 Levine (1996) 9

Simon docility Dawkins meme 12 図 1: 逢引きのジレンマプレイヤー C A B プレイヤー R A (4, 3) (1, 2) B (2, 1) (3, 4) 12 Simon (1990) Dawkins (1989). 10

Allport, F. H. 1924. Social Psychology. Boston, U.S.: Houghton Mifflin. Andersen, H. C. 1994 (1835). Fairy Tales. London, U.K.: Penguin Books. Bicchieri, C., and Y. Fukui. 1999. The Great Illusion: Ignorance, Informational Cascades, and the Persistence of Unpopular Norms. Business Ethics Quarterly 9: 127-155. Bikhchandani, S., D. Hirshleifer, and I. Welch. 1992. A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades. Journal of Political Economy 100: 992-1026. Boyd, R. and P. J. Richardson. 1985. Culture and the Evolutionary Process. Chicago, U.S.: University of Chicago Press. Conlisk, J. 1996. Why Bounded Rationality? Journal of Economic Literature 34: 669-700. Dawkins, R. 1989 (1976). The Selfish Gene, Revised Edition. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. de Tocqueville, A. 1955 (1856). The Old Regime and the French Revolution. New York, U.S.: Doubleday. Fukui, Y. 1998. Chapter 4, Three Essays on Accounting and Reality. Ph.D. dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University. Kraus, J. S. 1997. Legal Design and the Evolution of Commercial Norms. Journal of Legal Studies 26: 377-411. Lev, B. 1988. Toward a Theory of Equitable and Efficient Accounting Policy. The Accounting Review 63: 1-22. Levine, C. 1996. Conservatism, Contracts and Information Revelation. Ph.D. dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University. McFarland, C., and D. T. Miller. 1990. Judgments of Self-other Similarity: Just Like Other People, Only More So. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 16: 475-484. Mill, J. S. 1989 (1859). On Liberty. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. Miller, D. T., and C. McFarland. 1991. When Social Comparison Goes Awry: The Case of Pluralistic Ignorance. In J. Suls and T. Wills, eds. Social Comparison: Contemporary Theory and Research. Hillsdale, U.S.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Simon, H. A. 1990. A Mechanism for Social Selection and Successful Altruism. Science 250: 1665-1668. Sunder, S. 1988. Political Economy of Accounting Standards. Journal of Accounting Literature 7: 31-41. 1977 11