36 p.9 202010 Tourism Demand and the per capita GDP : Evidence from Australia Keiji Hashimoto Otemon Gakuin University Abstract Using Australian quarterly data1981: 2 2009: 4some time-series econometrics methods are applied to the analysis into the relationship between the per capita GDP and the tourism demand captured by the numbers of visitors arriving. On the stationality of the numbers of the long-termmore than one yearvisitors, and of the short-termless than one yearvisitors, along with the real per capita GDP, ADF tests are conducted. We found there are stationary relationships between the tourism demand and the per capita GDP by the estimation results of the Error Correction Mechanism. Further, the causalities in a sense of Granger between the long-term visitors and the change of per capita GDP are found. Key words : Tourism demand in Australia, Unit Root Test, ADF Test, Co-integration Test, Granger Causality. JEL Classification : L 83, C 01, E 10.
GDP 1981: 2 2009: 4 GDP 1 1 GDP GDP GDP Granger ADF Granger
1 UNWTO Tourism GDP Song and Li2008Song, Witt and Li2009 GDP 2 ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics1 LTDSeries ID: A 1830883 C1 STD Series ID: A 1830888 R 1981 2 2009 4 3 1 GDP2008 1 LTD STD RPGDP 2008 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Observations 30,205 20,450 143,440 4,300 27,471 115 861,914 903,200 1,618,800 191,600 428,946 115 10,173 9,544 14,617 7,112 1,948 115 1981 2 2009 4
GDP GDP GDP Series ID : A 2302467 ASeries ID : A 2133251 W Series ID : A 2303940 RABS 3 1 LTD 3 1 STD 86 GDP 1 1982 2009 LTD 9.30 STD 6.76 RPGDP 2.02 3 2007 2009 LTD 34 STD 560 RPGDP 5.5 1 2 LTD 1 4 STD 4 2 1 1 LTD 2 1 STD
3 GDP : RPGDP 2008 3 GDP 2008 3 LTD, STD RPGDP spurious regression LTD, STD RPGDP Augmented Dickey-FullerADF ADF Xt Δ Xtβ 1β 2tδ Xt 1α i Δ Xt 1ε t m!i1 1 Δ Xt Δ XtXt Xt 1, t ADF δ 0 1 X LTD, STD RPGDP LTD STD 1 δ RPGDP 5 RPGDP 1 Δ RPGDP 2 1LTD, STD, RPGDP Δ RPGDP δ t Augmented Dickey Fuller test statistic
GDP 2 1Null Hypothesis : LTD has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 3.619351Prob.0.0326 2Null Hypothesis : STD has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 10.7868Prob.0.0000 3Null Hypothesis : RPGDP has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 3.343872Prob.0.0646 4Null Hypothesis : Δ RPGDP has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 11.6282Prob.0.0000 4 GDP LTD STD GDP RPGDPta1a2LTDtμ t RPGDPtb1b2STDtν t 2 3 LTD STD RPGDP 23 23 RPGDP LTD RPGDP STD μ t ν t 23 Augmented Engle Granger AEG 23 RPGDPt8500.6260.055364 LTDt t50.0220813.27542 Prob0.0000 0.0000 Adjusted R-squared0.605859 Durbin-Watson stat2.226812 RPGDPt6637.8680.004101 LTDt t37.5760122.33319 Prob0.0000 0.0000 Adjusted R-squared0.813656 Durbin-Watson stat0.674764 4 5
5 4 Δμ t1.136730 μ t 1 t12.06676 Prob0.0000 Adjusted R squared0.562921 Durbin Watson stat1.832028 6 Δμ t μ t 1 RPGDP LTD 5 Δμ t0.336270 ν t 1 t4.744106 Prob0.0000 Adjusted R squared0.166042 Durbin Watson stat2.495898 7 RPGDP STD RPGDP LTD RPGDP STD 1 Δ RPGDPt65.486080.018143 Δ LTD 0.038053 μ t 1 t1.4655266.115324 0.631455 Prob.0.1456 0 0.529 Adjusted R squared0.418268 Durbin Watson stat2.706876 8 Δ RPGDPt30.274280.001973 Δ STD 0.201142 ν t 1 t0.5701045.09251 2.957116 Prob.0.5698 0 0.0038 Adjusted R squared0.183325 Durbin Watson stat2.984955 9
GDP 8 GDP RPGDP 1 LTD 0.0189 1 STD 0.0019 LTD STD GDP 45 GDP 1 1 LTD 0.055STD 0.004 45LTD, STD, RPGDP 1 45 Δ RPGDP/Δ LTD LTD/RPGDP 0.05536430205.22/10172.90.164386 Δ RPGDP/Δ STD STD/RPGDP 0.004101861913.9/10172.90.347463 GDP 1 0.1641 0.347 45 GDP 1 GDP 5Granger Granger GDP Granger X Y
Xt α iyt 1 β jxt ju1t n!i1 n!j1 Yt λ iyt i n!i1 δ jxt ju2t n!j1 10 11 10Y α i011 X n!i1 δ j0y X Granger n!j1 Y X Y X Y X 2 RPGDP GDP 1011 X, Y RPGDP RPGDP LTD 1 RPGDP STD 1 Granger RPGDP 3 A Granger Null Hypothesis Obs No. of Lags F-Statistic Prob. Decision Direction of Causality Causality LTD does not Granger Cause ΔRGDP 114 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.13019 1.69147 0.76826 2.77618 2.72028 3.38353 2.90371 3.10961 2.58483 3.31576 2.64118 2.37538 0.7189 0.1886 0.5143 0.0309 0.0241 0.0046 0.0087 0.0038 0.011 0.0012 0.0062 0.0116 LTD ΔRGDP STD does not Granger Cause ΔRGDP 114 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.94256 0.72345 13.6815 3.66816 2.30451 1.96857 1.71752 1.68383 1.95176 1.99924 1.93332 1.71423 0.3337 4.87 E 01 1.00 E 07 0.0078 0.0502 0.0778 0.1145 0.1133 0.055 0.0435 0.0469 0.0799 STD ΔRGDP
GDP 3 B Granger Null Hypothesis Obs No. of Lags F-Statistic Prob. Decision Direction of Causality Causality ΔRGDP does not Granger Cause LTD 114 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 92.4642 57.8867 73.9098 6.74416 5.53855 4.29505 2.70373 1.88466 1.77833 1.75157 1.29488 0.94445 3.00 E 16 9.00 E 18 1.00 E 25 7.00 E 05 0.0002 0.0007 0.0136 0.0722 0.084 0.0828 0.2427 0.5083 ΔRGDP LTD ΔRGDP does not Granger Cause STD 114 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 24.0933 13.8393 6.92819 3.4371 1.58662 1.24276 1.03728 0.83814 1.05525 1.04618 0.93242 1.06745 3.00 E 06 5.00 E 06 0.0003 0.0112 0.1709 0.2916 0.4108 0.5716 0.404 0.4131 0.5142 0.3989 ΔRGDP STD 3A 3BF 5 4A 4B GDP 4A 4 12 LTD RPGDP 47 1 RPGDP 4B STD 3, 4 RPGDP GDP
4A Obs No. of Lags Tourism Demand Direction of Causality Change of Real per capita GDP 114 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 LTD ΔRGDP 4B Obs No. of Lags Tourism Demand Direction of Causality Change of Real per capita GDP 114 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 STD NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE ΔRGDP 6 1 GDP GDP Granger GDP GDP GDP
GDP Gujarati, D. N2003Basic Econometrics, 4th edition, McGraw Hill. Gujarati, D. N. and D. C. Porter2003Essentials of Econometrics, 4 th edition, McGraw Hill. Narayan, P. K2003Tourism Demand and Modelling : Some Issues Regarding Unit Roots, Co integration and Diagnostic Test,International Journal of Tourism Research, 5, 369 380. Song, H. and G. Li2008Tourism Demand Modelling and ForecastingA Review of Recent Research,Tourism Management, 29, pp.203 220. Song, H., S. F. Witt and G. Li2009The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand, Routledge. 2010 8 St. Lucia Campus on Queensland University, 8 27 Tourism Demand and Economic Growth in Australia : Some Econometrics View ABS Dr. Timothy J. Lee