2013 11 29 1990 15 JEL C51, E12, E32, E62, O42, O53 1 2007 19 Borio (2012a), Galbraih (1994) 1990 1 20 1998 GDP 1998 2012 GDP 0.6 0.6 1 1930 Eggerson man (2012) and Krug 1
1 GDP 2 8 2 2
2005 2 1996 2007 60 19 Borio (2012b) Borio (2012b) Galbraih (1994) 2 1970 3 Samuelson (1939) 3
1 5 4 1 5 GDP 6 20 1997 7 2 2007 Borio (2012b) 19 Borio (2012a), Galbraih (1994), Kindleberger (2000) Drehmann, Borio, and Tsasaronis (2012) 3 Hodrick- Presco 4
3 6 3 1950 1970 10 20 Drehmann, Borio, and Tsasaronis (2012) Drehmann, Borio, and Tsasaronis (2012) 1985 1970 Reinhar and Rogoff (2008) 4 1970 5
4 1960 1970 Reinhar and Rogoff (2008) 1970 19 6
1870 Reinhar and Rogoff (2008) 5 GDP 5 Michell (1988) 3 Samuelson Y, G, C, I G 7
Y = G + C + I C a = Y-1 I = b ( C - C- 1) = ab ( Y -1 - Y -2 ) G = G 0 Y 2 Y = G + 0 a ( 1 + b ) Y - -1 aby -2 4b G0 Y a < 2 (1 + b ) 1-a (1) (2) 1 1-a 4b b 1 a 2 (1 + b ) Hicks (1950) I G Hicks (1950) 8
q Clark (1979) Tinbergen (1938) 4 q Akerlof and Shiller (2009) Borio (2012b) 9
Akerlof and Shiller (2009) 6 32 GDP GDP 1974 GDP 3 (2) Keynes (1936) GDP GDP 1970 7 1997 100 GDP 1997 1990 8 GDP 3 10
6 GDP 10 32 24.47 y = x 0.94 OECD 30 7 GDP GDP 1997 100 11
8 GDP 1954 GDP 3 5 GDP 6 8 15 5 Y, G, C, I, P, D, W, K GDP G 93SNA 2000 1980 2009 1970 12
1990 20 GDP C, G GDP G (1) Y = G + C + I (2) C a W + b = (3) g P + dp + ed + m I = -1 (4) W = AY (5) P + D = BY (6) K+1 = K + I - D (7) D = rk. A B 9 8 A B A 64.4 66.6 61.7 1.2 B 25.0 28.4 22.7 1.9 13
9 A, B 6 5.A. (3) 3 (2) (3) 1 14
1 1 C I W P D 5 0.9086 5 0.3197 0.3205 4 0.9380 4 0.4891 0.4631 3 0.9606 3 0.6228 0.5743 2 0.9794 2 0.7081 0.6676 1 0.9909 1 0.8090 0.7489 0 0.9944 0 0.6966 0.8231 1 0.9855 1 0.4436 0.8559 2 0.9689 2 0.2140 0.8610 3 0.9447 3 0.0369 0.8613 4 0.9104 4 0.2554 0.8501 5 0.8631 5 0.4043 0.8379 GDP 15
s * K I * - D = ( K - K ) + m (3) (7) * g d r(1 - e ) sk = P -1 + P, s =, = r( 1- e ) g + d g + d g + d I G0 + b = 1 -aa0 -, Y Y C Y b a A + Y = 0 (1) (2) (4) GDP GDP 5.B. G = G0, A = A0, B = B0 G 0, A 0, B0 Y 2 (8) ly + 2 + my + 1 + ny = r {( 1+ g + d - e )( G0 + b ) + m} l = 1-aA - db, 0 ( -aa 0 ){ r( 1+ d - e )-1} - B { g - d ( - r) } m = 1, 1 0 { r( -aa 0 ) + B ( r) } n = g 1-1 0 0 m 2 2p m l - 4ln < 0 cosq = - q 2l n 16
n 0 g 0 (1) (2) (4) (5) (6) 1-aA0 1-aA0 - B0 K + 1 - K = P + D - G0 - b B0 B0 5.C. * Y Y 5 B Y * = 1-aA 0 1 m G + b + B0 Ł - - 1+ g + d - e 0 ( g + d ) 1+ g + d e ł G = G 0, A = A0, B = B0 (9) 1-aA 0 1 B0 ( g + d ) - 1+ g + d - e C I G Y * Hicks (1950) 6 (10) (11) (12) 5 (2) (3) (7) 10 2 R, S.E., D.W. 17
(10) C = 5774.924 + 0. 868W (1.41) (49.92) R 2 = 0.98, S. E. = 4486. 65, D. W. = 0. 30 (11) I = -12677.163 + 0.582P - 1 + 0.511P + 0. 569D ( 3.98) (4.86) (4.64) (14.51) R 2 = 0.96, S. E. = 2892. 25, D. W. = 0. 83 (12) D = 0. 124K. (105.13) R 2 = 0.96, S. E. = 2562. 27, D. W. = 0. 54 6.A. (8) A 0, B0 A, B 19.23 Y 1990 2008 G GDP 68SNA 1990 1970 8 10 10 A, B A, B 18
19.50 22.09 17.60 8 GDP 6.B. (9) A 0, B0 A, B 3.81 A, B 3.81 4.04 3.54 Y m b G + 1 + g + d - e G 4.5 2.3 GDP 4.35 4.95 4.00 10 1990 1990 Kuner and Posen (2002) 2.0 GDP VAR vecor auoregression analysis 19
1990 8 10 VAR 1990 Lehner (2012) 1990 6.C. 20 20 1997 6 7 11 G7 GDP OECD 1990 20
GDP 1 11 20 6.D. 8 GDP 5 GDP G7 GDP Yoshikawa (2000) 5 B 1 GDP (10) (11) (12) (10) 12 21
12 7 GDP GDP 20 15 22
GDP 23
G7 1970 24
25
26
27
28
29
OECD IMF Michell (1988) 30
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2012 hp://cruel.org/books/generalheory/ [11] Kindleberger, Charles P. (2000) Manias, Panics and Crashes: A Hisory of Financial Crises. John Wiley & Sons, New York. 2004 [12] Kuer, Kenneh and Adam S. Posen (2002) Fiscal Policy Effeciveness in Japan. Journal of he Japanese and Inernaional Economies, 16, pp. 536-558. hp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projecs/bpea/fall%202001/2001b_bpea_ku ner.pdf [13] Lehner, Josh (2012) Checking in on Financial Crises Recoveries. A Blog of Oregon Economic News and Analysis. hp://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2012/09/24/checking-in-on-financial-crises-r ecoveries/ [14] Mahews, R. C. O. (1959) The Trade Cycle. Cambridge Universiy Press, Cambridge. 1961 [15] Michell, Brian R. (1988) Briish Hisorical Saisics. Cambridge Universiy Press, Cambridge. 1995 [16] Reinhar, Carmen M. and Kenneh S. Rogoff (2008) This Time is Differen: A Panoramic View of Eigh Cenuries of Financial Crises. NBER Working Paper No. 13882. hp://www.nber.org/papers/w13882.pdf?new_window=1 [17] Samuelson, Paul A. (1939) Ineracions beween he Muliplier Analysis and he Principle of Acceleraion. The Review of Economic Saisics and Saisics, 21, pp. 75-78. hp://people.bu.edu/rking/szgcourse/samresa39.pdf [18] Tinbergen, J. (1938) Saisical Evidence on he Acceleraion Principle. Economica, 5, pp. 164-176. hp://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9958/1938economica.pdf [19] (2000) 32