KEIO UNIVERSITY MARKET QUALITY RESEARCH PROJECT (A 21 st Century Center of Excellence Project) DP2005-020 * C. R. McKenzie** 2003 3 2004 ( 38 ) 2 2004 2005 (Keio Household Panel Survey) control group treatment group * ** Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Business and Commerce, Keio University 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan
C. R. McKenzie 2003 3 2004 ( 38 ) 2 2004 2005 (Keio Household Panel Survey) control group treatment group 1
1 2003 3 2004 ( 38 ) (Keio Household Panel Survey) 80 EITC (Earned Income Tax Credits) WFTC (Working Family Tax Credit) (tax credit) (Blundell and Macurdy, 1999). 1986 EITC Eissa and Liebman (1996) DD 1986 Eissa and Liebman (1996) control group treatment group DD EITC Blundell et. al. (1998) 80 Blundell et. al. (1998) (1995) 100 (1995) 35.6% 2
24.8% (2001) (1995) 1999 1990 1995 (2003) 0.4% 2 3 (2005) 1100 2004 2004 DD 2 3
1961 1987 2 1 2004 (b) (a) 1995 1000 2 1 2003 70 76 (38 38 (a)) 70 (a) 103 0 103 103 141 (b) 100 103 2001 130 100 2003 2-1 (a) 2004 38 10% 3.8 20% 7.6 (a) 70 4
3 Eissa and Liebman (1996) Eissa and Liebman (1996) DD DD treatment group control group control group treatment group treatment group control group P lfp = 1) = Φ( α + β Χ + γ treat + γ year04 + γ ( treat year04 )), (3-1) ( it p p it p0 i p1 t p2 i t lfpit 1 0 treati year04t treatment group 2004 1 X it 2 7 7 14 treat year04 i t 70 γ treatment p2 γ p2 5
HW it = α + β Χ + γ treat + γ year04 + γ ( 2 treat year04 ) + ε h h it h0 i h1 t h i t it, (3-2) HWit 3-2 2004 35 3-1 3-2 γ h2 4 1 2004 2 2005 (Keio Household Panel Survey) KHPS 1 3 2 20 69 4000 1 4005 2 attrition rate 17.3% 1 2 (3 1) KHPS2004 1 (1 12 ) 1 0 KHPS2004 1 (1 12 ) KHPS2005 1 1 12 1 1 1 0 1 1 KHPS2004 KHPS2005 KHPS2005 KHPS2004 KHPS2005 1 2004 1 3 2003 2004 2004 1 3 6
KHPS2004 KHPS2004 2004 KHPS2004 KHPS2005 2003 3 2004 KHPS2004 2003 DD treatment group control group 4 1 DD control group t-1 t KHPS2004 t-1 t control group 2 control group t-1 treatment group t (3-1) (3-2) treatment group control group 4 2 (3-1) 4 1 treatment group control group 2 ( ) 0.2 treatment group ( 0.1) control group 0.3 0.1 0.3 treatment group 0 control group 1000 0 7
control group (3-2) 3 treatment group control group 2004 3 treatment group control group 4 3 3486 733 5 2003 1000 65 5 1. 5 1 DD 0.05 10% 20 65 KHPS 5 2 2003 ( 15 ) 2004 ( 16 ) 20 65 3 KHPS 2 81% 75% KHPS 2003 89% 2004 93% 2004 2 57% KHPS 2003 64% 2004 73% 2 8
2 KHPS2004 KHPS2005 KHPS 20 65 1 1 1 2003 57.9% 2004 59.6% 2003 79.4% 2004 80.8% 2 2 KHPS2004 KHPS2005 KHPS 2 5 1 5 3 treatment group control Pooled OLS random effects model 1% 2004 treatment pooled OLS random effects random effects 5 4 control group treatment group 330 10% 330 990 20% pooled OLS random effects random effects 2004 treatment (1995) (2001) 9
10% control group 20% treatment group 5 5 2004 treatment 5 5 0% control group treatment group 5 2 5 6 DD 70-5.31 (3-2) KHPS2004 35 KHPS2005 70 4 2 3 5 7 control group treatment group 2004 treatment pooled OLS random effects KHPS 4 DD 5 8 6 5 9 control group treatment group Pooled OLS random effects control group treatment group 5 10 10
5 7 5 9 2004 treatment pooled OLS random effects KHPS 4 5 9 random effects 6 2004 2004 2004 2005 KHPS control group treatment group KHPS 4 (2003) 11
(2003) pp.113-133 (1995) 31 pp. 120-134 (1999) 35, pp.77-95. 2001) No. 493. pp. 15-29. (1995) pp.185-219. (2001) 103 No. 489, pp. 60-61. (2005) 2005 Blundell, R., A. Duncan, and C. Meghir (1998) Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms Econometrica, 66(4), pp. 827-861. Blundell, R. and T. Macurdy (1999) "Labor Supply: A Review of Alternative Approaches" in Orley, A. and D. Card, Handbook of Labor Economics Vol.III A, North Holland. Eissa, N., and J. B. Liebman (1996), Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), pp. 605-637. MODSIM2005, 12
2 1 (2003 ) 76 (a) 38 38 38 (b) 103 141 13