ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.226 November 2009 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan
The views expressed in ESRI Discussion Papers are those of the authors and not those of the Economic and Social Research Institute, the Cabinet Office, or the Government of Japan.
* 2009 11
* ** 2006 10 3 1990 18 90 100 * ** 3 1
North America: Growing Population, Race, Ethnicity and Religion Yu KOREKAWA Special Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Miho IWASAWA Senior Researcher, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Government of Japan Abstract The U.S. population reached 300 million on October 2006, showing that the pace of population growth had not yet stagnated. The present study aims to answer the question of why among developed countries, almost all of which have entered into or are on the verge of a phase of population decline, the U.S. population alone continues to grow. In particular, the present study reviews demographic movement in the U.S. from the 1990s, focusing on fertility, death, and migration. In a supplemental chapter, the present study compares the demographic movement in Canada to that of the U.S. Demographic movement in the U.S. is often cited as an exceptional case compared to other developed countries. However, we have to understand that although this characteristic is an outcome of demographic diversity among ethnic, socio-economic, and religious groups, not every American exhibits exceptional demographic behavior. For example, the U.S. total fertility rate is now on a stable path around the population replacement level, after going through an eighteen-year-long baby boom after the Second World War, followed by a period of stagnation. Against the backdrop of its high fertility among developed countries, the U.S. has certain population subgroups whose fertility rates are very high and a uniquely flexible and adaptable social system. Moreover, the disparity in the mortality rates of population subgroups causes the U.S. s high mortality rate compared to other developed countries. Additionally, about one million immigrants arrive in the U.S. every year, greatly contributing to demographic reproduction, as many are of a younger age group that is nearing reproductive age. The future demographic path of the U.S. is uncertain, reflecting the disparity between the converging and diverging trends of the demographic behavior of population subgroups; however, the U.S. population will continue to experience not only population growth but also demographic structural change. 2
2006 10 3 Yin 2007 Total Fertility Rate TFR (1) (2) U.S. Census BureauUN Population Division 2050 4 1 (3) 1. Lesthaeghe & Neidert 2006 2000 12.5 ( 2) 2.96 2006 1.86 21 4 3
1980 (Morgan 1996, 1996 Swicegood & Morgan 2002, 2005) 1990 2. 1900-2000 2 2-1. 19 7 1930 (Coale & Zelnick 1963) ( 3) 1957 3.77 1960 1968 2.46 1976 1.74 1996, 2005 3.0 1947 1964 18 1996 1947 49 3 (Frejka & Westoff 2008) 7,600 Kent & Mather 2002 4
400 3. TFR 1940-2006 TFR 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 500 450 400 350 300 250 1.50 1.00 0.50 TFR) 200 150 100 50 0.00 1920 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 0 :Teitelbaumand Winter 1985; NHCS 2003; Hamilton et al. 2007; Martin et al. 2007 1 2 2 3 Bean 1983 Easterlin 1968, 1987 relative economic status hypothesis Weeks 2005 Easterlin Easterlin 1968, 1987 30 70 Easterlin 1968, 1987 Easterlin 76 80 90 Easterlin 1996Macunovich 1996 Rindfuss 5
(Rindfuss et al. 1988) Gibson 1976 Weeks 2005 Bean 1983 2-2. 1980 90 1970 80 80 20 30 5 Swicegood & Morgan 2002 6 20 30 1 80 90 1.69 1.85 9.4 30-34 35-39 5.83.6 7 Martin 2000 10 20 80 15-19 80 105.1 1000 41.2 90 116.2 30-39 tempo effect 8 Ryder 1980 60 70 (Bongaarts & Feeney 1998; Morgan 1996; Schoen 2004)80 90 9 1990 30 10 20 80 90 1990 2.55 2006 2.11 10 6
1. TFR TFR 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR /1000 1980 1.69 0.4 41.2 105.5 110.6 59.9 17.7 3.0 0.1 1990 1.85 0.5 42.5 97.5 115.3 79.4 30.0 4.7 0.2 2006 1.86 0.2 26.6 83.4 109.2 98.1 46.3 8.4 0.6 1980 2.35 4.6 105.1 152.2 111.7 65.2 25.8 5.8 0.3 1990 2.55 5.0 116.2 165.1 118.4 70.2 28.7 5.6 0.3 2006 2.11 1.6 63.7 133.1 107.1 72.6 36.0 8.3 0.5 pt. pt. 80-90 9.4 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.4 5.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 90-06 0.7 0.1 4.3 3.8 1.6 5.1 4.4 1.0 0.1 80-90 8.2 0.1 2.4 2.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 90-06 17.0 0.7 10.3 6.3 2.2 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 Clarke et al. 1994; NCHS 1984; Hamilton et al. 2007 2-3. 1990 Macunovich 1996; Morgan 1996 2006 2.10 11 Lesthaeghe & Neidert 2006 (Frejka & Sardon 2004) 15 34 18(Frejka & Sardon 2004) 3 1 Kent & Mather 20022 Teitler 2002 3 Frejka & Westoff 2008 2-3-1. 7 06 1.86 2.10 11 1.9 1.8 (2004 ) H ran & Pison 2007 2.96 7
2.11 1.91 1.82 Hamilton et al. 2007 2006 1.60, 2.17 3.11 2006 (Martin et al. 2009) (12) 4 4. TFR 1945-2006 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 AIAN 2.0 1.5 1940 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 API 1 AIAN= 2 API= 3 1989 Martin et al. 2007; Hamilton et al. 2007; Anderton et al. 1997 1991 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.4 5.1 2.6 1.9 0.6 4.7 3.0 1.0 0.7 Mosher & Bachrach 1996 13 Manlove et al. 2004 14 2006 15 24 15 66.2 Census Bureau 2007 54 8
Swicegood & Morgan 2002 assimilation theory Swicegood & Morgan 2002 16 Swicegood & Morgan 2002 1900 (Preston & Hartnett 2008) 2-3-2. 15-19 2006 1000 41.9 5.2 2006 2007( 11.9 UN 2007 3.5 Ventura et al. 2006; Darroch et al. 2001; Teitler 2002 15-19 Darroch et al. 2001 5 31.5% 2002 Abma et al. 200410 822001 Finer & Henshaw 2006 40 2001 Finer & Henshaw 2006 10 10 Darroch et al. 2001 9
5. 10 15-19 1000 1 2Ventura et al.(2006) 2002 31995 Ventura et al. 2006; Darroch et al. 2001 Kahn, Kalsbeek, & Hofferth 1988 15 98.315-19 84.2 38.5 Hamilton et al. 2007 Morgan 1996 1000 41.9 15-19 16.7 26.6 63.7 83.0 Hamilton et al. 2007 20-24 20 1 6.9 66.2 Darroch et al. 2001 10 Darroch et al. 2001 15-19 17 1.95 1.91 7.38.9 1.79 1.76 4.0 5.8 3 (Caldwell & Schindlmyer 2003) 10
2-3-3. Carlson 2005 2000 45 10 Hunter 1991 2002 General Social Survey 55% 22% 13% 11% Frejka & Westoff 2008 60 (Mosher & Bachrach 1996) (Frejka & Westoff 2008) 6 2.45 2002 1.50 18 1.0 2.28 2.20 2.10 2.06 2.02 2.02 2.01 2.0 1.65 1.65 1.63 1.83 1.61.59 1.6 Sutton et al. 2004 Lesthaeghe 2006 19 Lesthaghe 2006 1 11
20 21 1.72 22 1.83 2002 15-19 23 1.70 1.66 Frejka Westoff(2008) 35-44 6 Preston 0.5 (Preston & Hartnett 2008) (Frejka 2004) 6. 2002 National Center for Health Statistics 2-3-4. 80 13 12
(Hoem 2005) Tanaka 2005; 2007 12 Family and Medical Leave Act: FMLA 17 2008 (d Addio & d Ercole 2005) (24) (Haaga & Moffitt 1998) (Klerman 1999) family cap (Kearney 2004) (25) 2-3-5. (McDonald 2000; Caldwell & Schindlmyer 2003) (Cherlin 2004) Preston Hartnett (Preston & Hartnett 2008) 6 Berger et al. 20051993 (the federal Family and Medical leave Act:FMLA) 12 2007) ( 2007) (Preston & Hartnett 2008) Tocqueville 19 Frejka & Westoff 2008 13
(Preston & Hartnett 2008) Preston 2008 (Rindfuss et al.1996) 3. ( 2) 26 2. 77.8 75.2 80.4 79.4 77.2 81.6 80.7 77.1 84.1 79.4 76.5 82.1 80.5 77.5 83.5 80.7 78.3 82.9 82.6 79.0 86.1 UN 2007; Arias 2007 0405-10 3-1. 20 10 1 1 20 1 30 1 Kent & Mather 20022000 145 1 99 Kent & Mather 2002 1 1,000 7.0(2004 ) 2.6(2006 ) EU 5.3(2005 )WHO 2007 14
27 5.7 13.8 2004 Miniño et al. 2007 Kent & Mather 2002 3-2. 15-60 (Probability of dying per 1000 population between 15 to 65 years) 1,000 137.0 81.0 101.7 54.0 2005 WHO 2007 Kent & Mather 2002 ( 7) 1.0-2.5 1.5-4.9 2004 Miniño et al. 2007 28 69.5 76.3 29 4-7 Arias 2007 7. 2004 =1 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 AIAN 0.5 0.0 API 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 1 AIAN= 2 API= 3 Miniño et al. 2007 15
3. 2003 1 28.3 1 26.6 2 22.9 2 21.5 3 6.4 3 6.5 4 5.6 4 4.4 5 4.4 5 4.2 6 2.8 6 2.9 7 2.8 7 2.7 8 2.7 8 2.6 9 1.6 9 2.6 10 1.4 10 2.1 11 1.3 11 2.0 12 1.1 14 1.3 20 0.4 15 0.9 22 0.3 16 0.7 Heron et al. 2007 (Roger 1992)( 3) 30 HIV Heron et al. 2007 Heron et al. 2007 Alba et al. 1994 Heron et al. 2007 25-64 12 12 40 13 3.2 Miniño et al. 2007 3-3. 1990 5 1 Kent & Mather 2002 1965 4290 25 2003 15 24.119.2 WHO 2007 Kent & Mather 2002 3 ( 4) 80 30 16
Kent & Mather 2002 4. 15 31.1 33.2 13.6 12.3 9.3 8.7 15.9 13.9 2.9 3.3 WHO 2007 2004 01 03, (Phillips et al. 1980; Enstrom 1989) Kent & Mather 2002 (2001) 4. 1% 64 36 5 2 1990 2006 2.08 2.10 90 9.0Census Bureau 2004 06 14.8% Census Bureau 2007 17
90 06 2.96 31 5. 2006 298,754,819, 2,866,338 1,828,681 63.8 4,278,899 2,450,218 1,037,657 36.2 2007 301,621,157 Census Bureau 2007 10 93 ( 8) 2 19 20 1965 70 90 20 2006 Hirschman(2005) 2 3 Kent & Mather 2002 Census Bureau 2004 2050 100 110 2050 40 18
8. 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1820 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1900 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 DHS 2008 5. 5-1. Census Bureau 20042050 4 2050 69.4 50.1 Census Bureau 2004 2000 12.6 2030 20.1(Census Bureau 2004) 2-3-3 Hunter 1991; Longman 2004 5-2. 19
9 65 15-64 2010 19.5 6 2050 34.6 40-82 UN 2007 14 15-64 UN 2007 Kent & Mather 2002 Regional InversionSuraez-Villa 2002 32 Suraez-Villa 2002 6. 2010 2050 0-14 65 0-14 65 49.4 29.9 19.5 67.6 33.0 34.6 51.0 26.0 25.0 67.0 27.0 40.0 53.0 28.0 25.0 72.0 28.0 45.0 51.0 20.0 31.0 78.0 24.0 54.0 52.0 21.0 31.0 85.0 25.0 60.0 44.0 23.0 20.0 70.0 27.0 44.0 69.1 30.0 39.1 107.0 25.1 81.9 UN 2007; Census Bureau 2004; 2007 1 2 2007 3 100 20
9. 2010 2025 2050 10 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 10 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2025 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 10 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2050 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 Census Bureau 2004 6. 18 1990 21
NPO 2030 (Preston & Hartnett 2008) 100 (Preston & Hartnett 2008) 22
Kent & Mather 2002 1.50 2.10 3 7.0 5.0 2005 WHO 2007 3.9 3.8 UN 2007 (Frejka 2004) 1. TFR 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 UN 2007; NHCS 2003; Hamilton et al. 2007; Martin et al. 2007 1945 50 3 UN 2007 30 3 2 Kent & Mather 2002 23
20 3,375 10 1 20 UN 2007 2050 4,275.4 900 UN 2007 2. 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 UN 2007; Census Bureau 2002, 04 2.10 2006 2.10 05 2.05 1972 Hamilton et al. 2007 3 Census Bureau 2004UN. 2007 2050 419,854 402,415 4 EU demographic exceptionalism Lesthaeghe & Neidert 2006 5 24
(6) 1980 Mosher and Bachrach 1996 7 30-34 61.535-39 38.8 8 2004 Ryder 1980 2004 9 Bongarrts & Feeney 1998 adjusted-tfr 2.0 10 14.4% 06 1990 06 0.06 11 1.6 2.45 UN 2007 12 TFR TFR Toulemon 2004 13 Mosher and Bachrach 1996 14 catch-up effect Frank & Heuveline:2005 15 16 2050 1/3 Swicegood & Morgan 2002 17 15-19 11.9 1000 2005-10 UN. 2007; 2007 5.2 25
18 D.C. 1.11 19 Lesthaeghe 1986 Van De Kaa 1987 2000 20 21 Lesthaeghe & Neidert 2006 30 20-29 postponement index 0.8 22 2002 Sutton et al. 2004 23 17 24 Temporary Assistance to Needy Families: TANF (25) Moffitt 1997 26 27 28 29 30 31 () 3 2000, 10% 12% 74% 92% (Hirschman(2005) ) 32 26
Abma, J. C., Martinez, G. M., Mosher, W. D. & Dawson, B. S. (2004) Teenagers in the United States: Sexual activity, contraceptive use, and childbearing, 2002, Vital Health Stat., Vol.23(24), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Alba, Richard D., Logan, John R., & Bellair, Paul E. (1994) Living with Crime: The Implications of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Suburban, Social Forces, Vol. 73(2), pp.395-434. Anderton, D, Barrett, R.E. & Bogue, D.(1997) The Population of the United States, Third Edition, The Free Press, NY Arias, E. (2007) United States life tables, 2004, National vital statistics reports, Vol.56(9), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Bean, F. D. (1983) The Baby Boom and Its Explanations, Sociological Quarterly, Vol.23(3), pp. 353-365. Bianchi, Suzanne M. (1999) "Feminization and Juvenilization of Poverty: Trends, Relative Risks, Causes, and Consequences" Annual Review of Sociology, 25:307-333. Bongaarts, J. & Feeney, G. (1998) On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility, Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, pp.271-292. Berger, L. M., Hill, J. & Waldfogel, J. (2005) Maternity Leave, Early Maternal Employment and Child Health and Development in the US, The Economic Journal, Vol.115, pp.29-47. Caldwell, J. & T. Schindlmayr (2003) Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: A search for commonalities. Population Studies 57(3):241-263. Carlson, A. C. (2005) The Fertility Gap: Recrafting American Population, Family Policy Lectures, Family Research Council, 14 December, pp.1-14. Cherlin, A.J. (2004) "The deinstitutionalization of American marriage." Journal of Marriage and Family 66(4):848-861. Clarke, S. C. and Ventura, S. J. (1994) Birth and fertility rates for States: United States, 1990, Vital Health Stat. Vol.21(52). National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Coale, A.& M. Zelnick. 1963. New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. D Addio, A.C.& M.M. D Ercole. 2005. "Policies, institutions and fertility rates: a panel data analysis for OECD countries." OECD Economic Studies 41(2):7-45. Department of Homeland Security (2008) Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2007, Department of Homeland Security, USA. Darroch, J. E., Frost, J. J., Singh, S., & The Study Team (2001) Teenage Sexual and Reproductive, Behavior in Developed Countries; Can More Progress Be Made? The Alan Guttmacher Institute. Easterlin, R. A. (1968) Population, Labor Force and Long Swing in Economic Growth: The American Experience, Columbia University Press. (1987) Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare Second Edition, The University of Chicago Press. 27
Enstrom, James E. (1989) "Health Practices and Cancer Mortality Among Active California Mormons." Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Vol.81 pp.1807-1814. Finer, Lawrence B. & Henshaw, Stanley K. (2006) Disparities in Rates of Unintended Pregnancy in the United States, 1994 and 2001, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, Vol. 38(2), pp.90-96. Frejka,T. (2004) The curiously high fertility of the USA, Pp.88-92 in "Discussion of Paper 'Explanations of the Fertility Crisis in Modern Societies: A Search for Commonalities'," Population Studies 57 (3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr." Population Studies 58(1):77-92. Frejka, T.& J.P. Sardon. 2004. Childbearing Trends and Prospects in Low-Fertility countries: A cohort analysis. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Frejka, T.& C.F. Westoff. 2008. "Religion, religiousness and fertility in the US and in Europe." European Journal of Population 24(1):5-31. Gibson, Canpbell. (1976). "The U.S. Fertility Decline, 1961 1975: The Contribution of Changes in Marital Status and Marital Fertility. Family Planning Perspectives 8: 249-52. Haaga, J. & R. Moffitt (1998) Welfare, the Family, and Reproductive Behavior, Washington, DC: National Academic Press. Hamilton, B. E., Martin, J. A. & Ventura, S. J. (2007) Birth: Preliminary Data for 2006, National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol.56(7), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Government Printing Office. Frank, R. & Heuveline, P. (2005). A crossover in Mexican and Mexican-American fertility rates: Evidence and explanations for an emerging paradox, Demographic Research, Vol.12 Article 4, pp-77-104. Héran, F. & Pison, G. (2007) Two Children per Women in France. Population and Societies, No.432. INED. Heron, M. P., & Smith, B. L. (2007) Deaths: Leading causes for 2003. National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 55(10), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Hirschman, C.(2005) Immigration and the American century. Demography 42(4): 595-620. Hobbs, Frank & Nicole Stoops. (2002) Demographic Trends in the 20th Century, U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Special Reports, Series CENSR-4, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, DC. Hoem, J.M. (2005) "Why does Sweden have such high fertility?" Demographic Research 13(22):559-572. Hunter, J. D. (1991) Cultural Wars: The Struggle to Define America, New York: Basic Books. Kahn, J. R., Kalsbeek, William, D., & Hofferth, Sandra L. (1988) National Estimates of Teenage Sexual Activity: Evaluating the Comparability of Three National Surveys, Demography, Vol.29: pp.113-126. Kearney, M.S. (2004) "Is there an effect of incremental welfare benefits on fertility behavior?: a look at the family cap." Journal of Human Resources 39(2):295. Kent, M. M. & Mather, M. (2002) What Drives U.S. Population Growth? Population Reference 28
Bureau Bulletin, Population Reference Bureau. Klerman, J.A. (1999) "US Abortion Policy and Fertility." American Economic Review 89(2):261-264. Lesthaeghe, R. & Neidert, L. (2006) The Second Demographic Transition in the United States: Exception or Textbook Example? Population and Development Review Vol.32(4), pp.669-698. Longman, P. (2004) The Global Baby Bust, Foreign Affairs (May/June), pp. 64-79. Macunovich, D. J. (1996) Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring Their Effects on US Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, Population and Development Review, Vol.22, pp.223-257. Manlove, J., Suzanne, R., & Franzetta, K. (2004) "Contraceptive Use and Consistency in U.S. Teenagers' Most Recent Sexual Relationships." Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health Vol. 36(6), pp.265-275. Martin, J. A., Hamilton B. E., Sutton, P. D., Ventura, S. J., Menacker, F, Kirmeyer, S & Munson, M. L. (2007) Births: Final data for 2005, National Vital Statistics Reports, 56(6), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Martin J.A., Hamilton B.E., Sutton P.D., Ventura SJ, et al.(2009) Births: Final data for 2006. National vital statistics reports, 57(7). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Martin, Steven P. (2000). Diverging Fertility among U.S. Women Who Delay Childbearing Past Age 30, Demography Vol.27 (4), 523-533. Moffitt, R.A. (1997) The Effect of Welfare on Marriage and Fertility: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know? Institute for Research on Poverty, Discussion Paper No, 1153-97. McDonald, P. (2000) "Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition." Population and Development Review 26(3):427-439. Miniño, A. M., Heron, M.P., Murphy, S. L., & Kochankek, K.D. (2007) Deaths: Final Data for 2004, National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 55(19), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Morgan, S. P. (1996) Characteristic Features of Modern American Fertility, Population and Development Review, Vol.22, pp.19-63. Mosher, William D. and Bachrach, Christine A. (1996) Understanding U.S. Fertility: Continuity and Change in the National Survey of Family Growth, 1988-1995, Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 28(1), pp. 4-12. National Center for Health Statistics & Taffel, S. (1984) Birth and fertility rates for States, United States, 1980, Vital and Health Statistics. Series 21, No. 42.DHHS Pub. No. (PHS) 84-1920. Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office. (2003) Vital Statistics of the United States, 2002 Volume I, Natality, table 1-7: Birth and fertility rates for States, United States, 1980. Public Health Service. U.S. Government Printing Office. Phillips, R. L., J. W.Kuzma, W. L.Beeson, & T.Lotz (1980) "Influence of selection versus lifestyle 29
on risk of fatal cancer and cardiovascular disease among Seventh-day Adventists," American Journal of Epidemiology, pp. 112:296-314. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007) World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, <http://esa.un.org/unpp>. Preston, S.H.& C.S. Hartnett. 2008. "The Future of American Fertility." NBER Working Paper 14498. Rogers, Richard G. (1992), Living and Dying in the U.S.A.: Sociodemographic Determinants of Death Among Blacks and Whites, Demography, Vol. 29 (2), pp. 287-303. Rindfuss, R.R., S.P. Morgan, & G. Swicegood. (1988) First Births in America: Changes in the Timing of Parenthood, Berkeley: University of California Press. Rindfuss, R. R., K. L. Brewster, & A. L. Kavee. (1996) Women, work and children: behavioral and attitudinal change in the United States. Population and Development Review 22(3): 457-482. Ryder, N. (1980) Components of Temporal Variations in American Fertility, Hirons, R. A. eds., Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies, Taylor and Francis. Schoen, R. 2004. "Timing Effects and the Interpretation of Period Fertility." Demography 41(4):801-819. Sutton P. D. & Mathews T. J. (2004) Trends in characteristics of births by State: United States, 1990, 1995, and 2000 2002, National Vital Statistics Reports,Vol.52(19), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. (2006) Birth and fertility rates by Hispanic origin subgroups: United States, 1990 and 2000. Vital Health Stat., Vol. 21(57), National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Suarez-Villa, L. (2002) Regional Inversion in the United States: The Institutional Context for the Rise of the Sunbelt since 1940s, Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Vol.93(4), pp.424-442. Swicegood, G. & Morgan, S. P. (2002) Racial and Ethnic Fertility Differentials in the United States, Denton, N. A., & Tolnay, S. E. eds., American Diversity: a Demographic Challenge for the Twenty-First Century, State University of New York Press, pp. 99-127. Tanaka, S. (2005) Parental Leave and Child Health Across OECD Countries, The Economic Journal, Vol.115, pp.7-28. Teitelbaum, Michael S. & Jay M. Winter (1985) The Fear of Population Decline. Orlando: Academic Press, Inc. Teitler, Julien O. (2002) Trends in Youth Sexual Initiation and Fertility in Developed Countries: 1960-1995. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 580:134-152. Toulemon, Laurent (2004) Fertility among Immigrant Women: New Data, a New Approach. Population and Societies, No. 400. U.S. Census Bureau (2002) Demographic Trends in the 20th Century, U.S. Census Bureau. (2004) Interim Projections of the U.S. Population by Age, Sex, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. 30
Census Bureau. (2006) Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. <http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/histpov/hstpov4.html> (2007) American Community Survey 2006, U.S. Census Bureau Yin, Sandra (2007) The United States at 300 million How We Have Changed since the United States was a Nation of 200 million, Population Reference Bureau Bulletin, Population Reference Bureau. Van de Kaa, D. J. (1987) Europe s second demographic transition, Population Bulletin, Vol.42(1), Population Reference Bureau. Ventura S. J., Abma J. C., Mosher W. D., & Henshaw S. K. (2006) Recent trends in teenage pregnancy in the United States, 1990-2002: National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Government Printing Office. Weeks, John R. (2005) Population An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Ninth ed., Thomson Learning. World Health Organization (2007) World health statistics 2007, WHO Statistical Information System (WHOSIS), <http://www.who.int/whosis/database/core/core_select.cfm>. (1996), pp. 83-119 (2004), --, pp.15-36 (2007) 18 2006117 2105 18 12 (2007) 18 (2000) 2 (2005) Reitaku International Journal of Economic Studies, Vol.13, No.2, pp.109-122 (2007), Vol. 160 (2008) (1) (2001)57(4):3-30 (2006), 4.pp. 25-54 31