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JBIC Research Paper No.9 2001 2

Japan Bank for International Cooperation: JBIC 199910 JBIC JBIC JBIC Research Paper Series

13 2 () () () i

ii 1 11 1 11 2 11 3 12 13 1.1 13 1.1.1 13 1.1.2 14 1.2 Institutional Framework 15 1.3 16 1.4 17 1.4.1 17 1.4.2 18 1.5 19 1.6 21 1.6.1 21 1.6.2 21 23 2.1 23 2.1.1 23 2.1.2 23 2.1.3 24 2.1.4 24 2.1.5 24 2.1.6 24 2.1.7 25 2.2 25 2.2.1 25 2.2.2ADB 26

iii 2.2.3JBIC 28 30 3.1 30 3.1.1 31 3.1.2 31 3.1.3 31 3.1.4 31 3.1.5 31 3.1.6 32 3.1.7 32 3.2 33 3.2.1 34 3.2.2 34 3.2.3 35 3.2.4 35 3.2.5 35 3.2.6 36 3.2.7 36 3.2.8 36 3.2.9 36 3.2.10 37 3.3 38 3.3.1 39 3.3.2 39 3.3.3 40 3.4 41 3.4.1 42 3.4.2 42 3.4.3 42 3.4.4 42 43 4.1 43 4.1.1 43 4.1.2 47 4.2ADB 49 4.2.1 49 4.2.2TA 52 4.3JBIC 54

77 iv

v 1-1 14 1-2 15 1-3 15 1-4 18 1.5 22 3-1 30 3-2 33 3-3 38 3-4 41 1-1 14 1-2 16 1-3 18 1-4 20 2-1 1997 23 2-2 24 2-3ADB 27 2-4 29

ADB AVI DBFO DLO DOH DOT ENP ETC HA IRR JBIC MOF MOC MOT NGO NPO O&M OECF PFI PMU PQ RA RB RF RMI RMS Asian Development Bank Automatic Vehicle Identification Design, Build, Finance, and Operate Direct Labor Organization Department of Highways Department of Transportation Electronic Number Plate Electronic Toll Collection Highway Agency Internal Rate of Return Japan Bank for International Cooperation Ministry of Finance Ministry of Communications Ministry of Transportation Non-governmental Organization Nonprofit Organization Operation Maintenance Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund Private Finance Initiative Project Management Unit Prequalification Road Agency Road Board Road Fund Road Maintenance Initiative Road Management Initiative Road Management System SADEP Special Assistance for Development Policy and Project SATCC Southern African Transport & Communications Commission TA TOR VE VOC Technical Assistance Terms of Reference Value Engineering Vehicle Operating Cost vi

1 1 1.1 VOCVehicle Operating Costs 1 1

1.2 Institutional Framework 2 2 1.3 1 1 Road Management System: RMS fee-for-service basis Routine Maintenance 2

1.4 4 Ministry of Transportation: MOT Road Agency: RA Road Board: RB Road Fund: RF 3 3 MOF MOT RA RF * RB * 3

4 1.5 2 2 Cost/Benefit Economic IRR Disbursement/Covenant RF competitive bid DLO VE * DBFO** Co-operative Technical/Financial Audit RA RA RB RMS * ** F B O Shadow Toll

1.6 ADB 3 3 2 2.1 7 2.2 ADB RA JBIC 5

6 3 3.1 4 4 Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes

7 3.2 5 5 Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes

3.3 6 6 NO YES NO YES NPO O&M DBFO VE 8

3.4 RA RB 7 7 NO YES RA RB NO YES NO YES NO YES RMS 9

4 4.1 4.2ADB ADB TA 96 TA 4.3JBIC 10

1 1999 5 () JBIC ADB JBIC 1 http://www.worldbank.org/html/fpd/transport/roads/toll_rds.htm 1999 3 Asian Toll Road Development in an Era of Financial Crisis http://www.worldbank.org/html/fpd/transport/toll_sem/intro.htm 11

4 1 2 3 4 ADBJBIC 12

1 1.1 2 1.1.1 ODA VOC Vehicle Operating Costs Capital Expenditure Current Expenditure 1-1 1-1 VOC 2 2000 13

Road Expenditure 1-1 Capital Expenditure Current Expenditure Gwilliam and Shlizi 1997 Construction Rehabilitation Periodic Maintenance Routine Maintenance Operational Management 1-1 1.8 4 10.5 1998 7,000km 1.1.2 1-2 14

15 1-2 1.2 Institutional Framework 1-3 1-3

1.3 1-2 1-2 Road Management System: RMS fee-for-service basis Routine Maintenance 16

1.4 1.4.1 1-4 Ministry of Transportation: MOT Road Agency: RA RA Road Board: RB RB RA Road Fund: RF 1-3 3 3 17

1-4 MOF MOT RA RF RB RA RF RB MOF 1-3 1.4.2 4 1 RA Highways Agency, National Road Authority 18

4 2 RA 3 RB 2 MOF 4RF 1.5 1-4 4 2000 19

1-4 Cost/Benefit Economic IRR Disbursement/Covenant RF competitive bid DLO VE * DBFO** Co-operative Technical/Financial Audit RA RA RB RMS * **F BO Shadow Toll 20

1.6 ADB 1-5 1.6.1 1.6.2 commercialization corporatization fee-for-service basis 21

22 1-5 * DBFO Public BOT RA *

2 80 RMI Road Maintenance Initiative Road Management Initiative 90 2.1 7 2.1.1 2-1 2-11997 1,800 750 160 625 500 1,650 200 2,500 5,000 1,750 825 1,250 750 2,800 485 2,500 2.8 2.3 5.1 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 1.0 Heggie & Vickers 1998 2.1.2 2-2 23

2-2 100 333 526 191 348 74 101 5,768 395 874 0 105 50 205 0 20 5593 1 0 293 421 20 97 58 81 175 320 874 40 0 121 46 16 0 0 75 0 0% 20% 26% 59% 0% 20% 97% 0% 0% 88% 80% 10% 28% 78% 80% 3% 81% 100% 12% 0% 63% 13% 22% 0% 0% 19% 0% 68 760 135 240 31 176 970 40 742 61 308 73 127 9 101 635 27 507 7 452 62 113 22 75 335 13 235 90% 41% 54% 53% 29% 57% 65% 68% 68% Heggie & Vickers 1998 2.1.3 Ministry of Public WorksMinistry of Communications4 agencies and ministries 2.1.4 2.1.5 basic roads inventory data 10 15 50 30 50 2.1.6 VOC 24

2.1.7 20 3080 90 30 30 2.2 ADB JBIC 2.2.1 1 1980 4 5 a b c Project Management Unit PMU 5 World Bank Operations Evaluation Department 1999 25

d 2 1983 1990 6 1985 "Thailand Transport Sector Review" Sector Review 4 management umbrella 2.2.2 ADB ADB 1998 7 1 ADB a 4 b ADB 1990 ADB Policy Development 6 World Bank Operations Evaluation Department 1997 7 ADB 1998 26

ADB Department of Highways DOH ADB T/A 2 ADB 5 2-3 2-3 ADB Expressway Management Corporations routine, periodic DOH periodic maintenance work PWD Public Works Dept 99 10%2008 Field Divisions DOR DOR ADB 50 ADB 1998 a BOT 27

b sound planning criteria ADB National Planning Commission pavement management system workable maintenance program 2.2.3 JBIC JBIC OECF 1997 2-4 JBIC 1999 28

29 2-4 40% * 30% * OECF, 1998

30 3 3.1 3-1 3-1 Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes

3.1.1 8 5 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4 ADB 9 3.1.5 8 31

3.1.6 5 3.1.7 ADB 32

33 3.2 3-2 Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes

3.2.1 LPG AVI Automatic Vehicle Identification ENP Electronic Number Plate 3.2.2 34

3.2.3 IMF 3.2.4 3.2.5 3 2 raid 35

3.2.6 3.2.7 3.2.8 3.2.9 36

3.2.10 37

3.3 O&M VEDBFO 3-3 3-3 NO YES NO YES NPO O&M VE DBFO 38

3.3.1 NPO Lengthman Contractor System Direct Labor Organization DLO 3.3.2 9 91 9 39

3.3.3 VE DBFO Design, Build, Finance and Operate VE DBFO Design, Build, Finance, and Operate 40

3.4 RA RB 3-4 3-4 NO YES RA RB NO YES NO YES NO YES RMS 41

3.4.1 EU SATCC Southern African Transport & Communications Commission Road Authority 2 SATCC 3.4.2 Highway Agency National Road Authority, Ltd. 3.4.3 RB National Road Board 3.4.4 Result Unit/Production Unit Result Unit/Production Unit 42

4 4.1 4.1.1 Report No. Report No. Indonesia- Second Highway Sector Investment Project 12161-final-1994-02-07 institutional capacity 2000km 2200km 5300m 210km Indonesia- Fifth Kbupatan Roads Project 12671-final-1994-04-19 TA 43

Indonesia- Strategic Urban Roads Infrastructure Project (SURIP) Report No. 15295-final- 1996-06-04 Report No. Thailand -Fifth Highway Sector Project 13333-final-1995-11-28 4 2 ( ) TA Nepal- Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Project Report No. 12192-final- 1994-02-18 300km 130km 44

Report No. Report No. Bangladesh-Second Rural Roads and Market Improvement and Maintenance Project 15321-final-1996-11-22 NGO India-Andhra Pradesh State Highway Project (Haryana Highway Upgrade) PIC726-final-1997-09-05 TA TA China Second HenanProvincial Highway Project Report No. 15358-final- 1996-05-01 LSE ETC Yangjia-Baijiazhai Connection LSE 4 45

China- Second ShaanxiProvincial Highway Project Report No. 15160-final - 1996-02-05 5 Xian-Sanyuan class I highway 3 Turkey- Road Improvement and Traffic Safety Project Report No. 15011-final -1996-05-22 (state and province) General Directorate of Highways (KGM) 600km 300km KGM 46

4.1.2 Kingdom of Morocco- Secondary, Tertiary and Rural Roads Projects Report No. 12761-final- 1995-05-11 1133km 96km 2219km Ghana- Highway Sector Investment Program Project JBIC Report No. 14572- final- 1996-04-19 VOC TA Brazil- Federal Highway Decentralization Project Report No. PIC1873-final- 1997-09-05 TA TA TA 47

Report No. Russian Federation Bridge Rehabilitation Project PIC979-final-1997-09-05 5 200 300 2 3 TA Lithuania Highway Project Lithuania Report No. 15636-final- 1996-08-02 VOC Vilnius Kaunas 48

4.2 ADB ADB TA 4.2.1 96 North Java Road Improvement Project Initial Listing 26 Jan 1995 Cost ADB (mill. $) 134.9 193.7 210km 9 4 90 TA Jiangxi Highway Project Initial Listing 31 July 1995 Cost ADB (mill. $) 100 0 Policy Dialogue 49

Almaty-Bishkek Regional Road Rehabilitation Initial Listing 1 June 1996 Cost ADB (mill. $) 65.00 47.4 Policy Dialogue Almaty-Bishkek Georgievka 204km 2 Second Roads Development Initial Listing 1 Dec. 1996 Cost ADB (mill. $) 25.0 8.5 Policy Dialogue 288M/M 24M/M 50

Southern Provincial Roads Initial Listing 2 April 1997 Cost ADB (mill. $) 30.0 12.9 1/3(550km) Southern Provincial Road Development Authority (SPRDA) Policy Dialogue 4 Xieng Khouang Road Improvement Initial Listing April 1997 Cost ADB (mill. $) 40 23.5 Policy Dialogue HebeiRoads Development Initial Listing June 1997 Cost ADB (mill. $) 180 293 Policy Dialogue (Corporatization) 51

4.2.2 TA TA Western Transport Corridor Facilitating Private Participation (IND31435-01) Initial Listing 1 Dec. 1996 Cost($) JSF 1,000,000 NH4, NH8 Policy Dialogue 25M/M 16M/M Punjab Roads Sector Project (PAK31662-01) Initial Listing 1 Dec 1997 Cost($) TASF 1,150,000 Communications and Works Dept 40M/M F/S West Bengal North-South Corridor Development (IND32203-01) Initial Listing 1 May 1998 Cost($) TASF 1,000,000 PPP 46M/M 16 30 O&M 52

Road Rehabilitation (TAJ32514-01) Initial Listing 23 Nov. 1998 Cost($) JSF 840,000 Policy Dialogue F/S 27M/M O&M 17M/M O&M Provincial Roads Improvement Initial Listing 5 July 1999 Cost($) TASF 1,000,000 29 19M/M 240M/M Shanxi and ShaanxiRoads (PRC30424-01) Initial Listing 16 Feb. 1999 Cost($) JSF 640,000 F/S Policy Dialogue F/S 16M/M14M/M 53

4.3 JBIC 1Philippine-Japan Friendship Highway Rehabilitation Project (1) (PH-P145) 1994 12 20 D/D D/D Achimota-Anyinam Road Improvement Project 1999 4 13 60 AfDB BADEA Road Network Improvement Project SL-P63 1999 8 4 A5 B13 ADB 54

SAPS Special Assistance for Project Sustainability * 5 National Highway No.5 Improvement Project VNI-4 VNII-4 VNIII-4 1999 JBIC 5 * 55

5 1996 2 5 1957 5 5 80 1996 2 Transit New Zealand Transfund Transfund 3 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 56

RMS RMS GIS 7 MMS Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads World Bank Technical Paper No. 275 March, 1995 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads World Bank Technical Paper No. 409 May, 1998 A 1986 The Road Maintenance Management SystemRMMS 1992 RMMS Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads World Bank Technical Paper No. 409 May, 1998 57

ADB 9 10 SFED ADB Project Performance Audit Report on the Ninth Road (Maintenance) Sector Project in IndonesiaDec. 1997 1980 1980 90 2 1996 externalization Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads World Bank Technical Paper No. 409 May, 1998 TOR 1 potholes Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads World Bank Technical Paper No. 409 May, 1998 ADB 2 5 10 15 5 ADB Technical Assistance Performance Audit Report on the Urban Transport Planning Project in MalaysiaDec. 1996 58

Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 275, March 1995 2000 4 Namibia Ministry of Works, Transport & Communication, MWTC2000 Project Newsletters 1993 7 24 40 50 1 1 60 1 1994 4050 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 275, March 1995 59

Automatic Vehicle Identification ENP Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 275, March 1995 Fedhaul Fedhaul Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 275, March 1995 LPG 25% 75% (1) (2) 2 LPG 25% Ian G. Heggie et al. Review of Selected Road Funds, Commercialization of Roads: Annex 3 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 60

1956 6 Ian G. Heggie et al. Review of Selected Road Funds, Commercialization of Roads: Annex 3 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 National Road FundNRF 1953 1996 NRF Transfund ( ) Transfund RAMM Transfund Ian G. Heggie et al. Review of Selected Road Funds, Commercialization of Roads: Annex 3 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 1970 1980 80 1996 2 IMF Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 61

Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 60 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 62

7.8 km 2.4 km 28 km 2 1997 10.4 km 1990 3 4 5 FinnRA Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 Ian G. Heggie Cost Sharing Arrangements Used by Selected Local Government Road Agencies, March 1999 1970 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 63

Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 0.2 Land Transport Safety Authority 3.2 18 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 The National Agency for Navigation and Freight 3% Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads March 1995 64

15 9 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 275, March 1995 1996 9 3 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 1994 1 30 27 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 65

100 75 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 PMO 3 3 3 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 DFR 2.2 km 10 1 10 DFR DFR 25 Ian G. Heggie Management and Financing of Roads Technical Paper No. 275 March 1995 Ian G. Heggie & Piers Vickers Commercial Management and Financing of Roads, World Bank Technical Paper No. 409, May 1998 66

150200 US 300 US IMF 1998 1999 67

SIDA MWTC2000 MWTC2000 Roads Contractor Company Limited 3 Namibia Ministry of Works, Transport & Communication, MWTC2000 Project Newsletters Russia Highway Rehabilitation and Maintenance ProjectHRMP $300 mill.ln 3706-RU 1992 (FHWA)$5 mill. 1994 9596 (PQ) 20 JV 68

(micro empresas contract) 1990 Ministry of Public Works national road network Institute Nacional de Vias 15 1520km micro empresas co-operatives micro empresas 70 road administrators "Restructuring Existing Road Agencies" Mar. 1999 WBHP, Innovations, Annex 8 Direct Labor OrganizationDLOLegislation 1981 DLO DLO 1520% Miquel, S and J Condon, 1991, Assessment of road maintenance by contract. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department Report INU 91. Washington DC: The World Bank. 69

1991 SNRASwedish National Road Agency 1993 SNRA Periodic Maintenance 3 SNRA 3 1994 SNRA SNRA 15% 35 SNRA Production Unit "Restructuring Existing Road Agencies" Mar. 1999 WBHP, Innovations, Annex 8 NRBNational Roads Board NRB ACEAssociation of Consulting Engineers of Zambia Province 1 District ACE 2.5% NRB reimburse District NRB "Contracting Out Planning and Management of Local Government Roads" Mar. 1999, WBHP, Innovations, Annex 10. 3 5 18 3 2 5 Miquel, S and J Condon, 1991, Assessment of road maintenance by contract. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department Report INU 91. Washington DC: The World Bank. 70

Lump sum contracts 10% Miquel, S and J Condon, 1991, Assessment of road maintenance by contract. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department Report INU 91. Washington DC: The World Bank. Lane Rental Contract) 1984 DOT 2 2,000 25,000 3,00040,000 1984 89 100 17 91 1 National Audit Office, 1991, Management of road maintenance. London: HM Stationery Office. VE VE VE 2 71

DBFO PFI F D B O Shadow Toll 6 DBFO D B F O DBFO 15 Labour-based Routine Maintenance Contract Agreement/Lengthman Contractor System (fixed price contract) Jones, T E and R C Petts, 1991. Maintenance of minor roads using the lengthman contractor system. In: Fifth International Conference on Low Volume Roads, Raleigh North Carolina, 19-23 May 1991. Transportation Research Record 1291, Vol. 1. Washington DC: Transportation Research Board, National Research Council; 41-52 72

(performance guarantees) 1% 5% 10% 12.5% 20% 10% 5% 5% 3% 20 4 1 Miquel, S and J Condon, 1991, Assessment of road maintenance by contract. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department Report INU 91. Washington DC: The World Bank. 30 Miquel, S and J Condon, 1991, Assessment of road maintenance by contract. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department Report INU 91. Washington DC: The World Bank. 73

SATCC RA (Road Authority) Road Act RA RA RA 2 RA RA RA RA RA RA CEO RA "SATCC Model Legislation to Establish a Roads Authority" WBHP Innovations, Annex 4 The Highway AgencyHA HA 1994 DOT (Executive Agency) HA 66,000 1700 30 98 7 HA HA DETR CEO DETR Home Page- http://www.detr.gov.uk/ HA Home Page- http://www.highways.gov.uk/ "Restructuring Existing Road Agencies" Mar. 1999 WBHP, Innovations, Annex 8 74

The National Road Authority, Ltd.NRA NRA 1998 South African Roads Board NRA national road agency national road system 120 7000km NRA NRA NRA DOT RMSroad management system "Restructuring Existing Road Agencies" Mar. 1999 WBHP, Innovations, Annex 8 79 1 2 1952 12 1 2 3 "Examples of Some Road Management Boards" Mar, 1999. WBHP Innovations, Annex 7 http://roppou.aichi-u.ac.jp/joubun/s27-180.htm National Road BoardNRB NRB 1994 "Roads and Road Traffic Act" Road Fund NRB 5 Finance, Works and Supplies, Transport and Communications, Local Government, and National Commission for Development Planning 7 Institute of Engineers, Institute of Transport, Copperbelt Univ. executive secretary "Examples of Some Road Management Boards" Mar, 1999. WBHP Innovations, Annex 7 75

SNRA RESULT UNIT 1990 Board of SNRA RA 1991 2 Result Unit 5 Ferries, Consultancy, Production, Training school, Traffic Data SNRA Production Unit Production Unit SNRA 1995 Production Unit 60 "Restructuring Existing Road Agencies" Mar. 1999 WBHP, Innovations, Annex 8 Local Government Engineering DepartmentLGED LGED 700 95,000km rural roads rural infrastructure worker groups LGED 9 10 "Special Purpose Agencies for Managing Rural Road Networks" Mar. 1999 WBHP Innovations, Annex 9 76

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JBIC Research Paper Series 1. Issues of Sustainable Economic Growth from the Perspective of the Four East Asian Countries1999 12 2. Organizational Capacity of Executing Agencies in the Developing Countries: Case Studies on Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia1999 12 3. Urban Development and Housing Sector in Viet Nam1999 12 4. Urban Public Transportation in Viet Nam :Improving Regulatory Framework1999 12 5. 1999 12 6. 2010 2000 3 7. BAAC 2000 11 8. 2001 1 9. 2001 2 No.1No.2 OECF Research Papers No.36 4 19997 OECF Research Papers No.37 19999 100-8144 1-4-1 03-5218-9720 03-3218-9846 http://www.jbic.go.jp/ JBIC Research Paper No.9 20012