Analyzing the Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Decadal to Multi-decadal Climate Systems Kensuke KATO Abstract Mid range climate predict

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2 Analyzing the Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Decadal to Multi-decadal Climate Systems Kensuke KATO Abstract Mid range climate prediction of decadal to multi-decadal scales have become increasingly important in recent years for policy making. Determining low frequency climate systems are significant as they influence the internal or natural variability of the climatic system, which is unaffected by anthropogenic influences. The study focuses on three types of climatic oscillations which are significant in establishing mid range predictions. The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and two low frequency modes; the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO) is statistically analyzed by using spectral analysis and lag correlation analysis of each climatic mode with Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The spectral analysis suggests that the AOI leads the other two climatic modes in the long term and in the short term, which emphasises on the AO being the dominant climatic mode. To verify the relationship of the AO and SST on an intra-annual basis, lag correlation of January Monthly Mean AOI with Monthly Mean SST was performed. The analysis suggested the persistence of the AOI in influencing SST until late Spring. To verify the relationship of the AO and SST on an inter-annual basis, lag correlation of DJF averaged AOI and DJF averaged SST was performed for AOI lead and SST lead.the analysis showed strong correlation from both leads suggesting that both the AO and the oceanic oscillations may affect one another. On a long term scale, the AO represents the spatial pattern of the PDO well but do not contribute in representing the spatial pattern of the AMO. i

3 Key Words: Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Spectral Analysis, Lag Correlation ii

4 Abstract i v SST SST iii

5 9 24 iv

6 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Mochizuki et al. (2010) PDO Mochizuki et al. (2010) PDO Schneider and Cornuelle (2005) PDO Dima and Lohmann (2007) AMO SST AO (Jia et al. 2009) (Atmospheric Bridge; Alexander et al. 2001) SST 60 (Alexander et al. 2001) AO SST 6 10 (Sun and Wang 2009) AOI SST PDOI SST AMOI SST AOI PDOI AMOI AOI PDOI AMOI AOI PDOI AOI AMOI AOI PDOI AOI AMOI AOI 1 SST AOI 2 SST AOI 3 SST v

7 30 1 AOI 4 SST AOI 5 SST AOI 6 SST AOI 7 SST AOI 8 SST AOI 9 SST AOI 10 SST AOI 11 SST AOI 12 SST DJF AOI SST (+0 ) DJF AOI SST (+1 ) DJF AOI SST (+2 ) DJF AOI SST (+3 ) DJF AOI SST (+4 ) DJF AOI SST (+5 ) DJF AOI SST (+6 ) DJF AOI SST (+7 ) DJF AOI SST (+8 ) DJF AOI SST (+9 ) DJF AOI SST (+10 ) DJF AOI SST (+11 ) DJF AOI SST (+12 ) DJF AOI SST (+13 ) DJF AOI SST (+14 ) DJF AOI SST (+15 ) DJF AOI SST (+16 ) DJF AOI SST (+17 ) DJF AOI SST (+18 ) DJF AOI SST (+19 ) DJF AOI SST (+20 ) DJF AOI SST (+21 ) DJF AOI SST (+22 ) DJF AOI SST (+23 ) vi

8 63 DJF AOI SST (+24 ) DJF AOI SST (+25 ) DJF AOI SST (+26 ) DJF AOI SST (+27 ) DJF AOI SST (+28 ) DJF AOI SST (+29 ) DJF AOI SST (+30 ) DJF AOI SST (-1 ) DJF AOI SST (-2 ) DJF AOI SST (-3 ) DJF AOI SST (-4 ) DJF AOI SST (-5 ) DJF AOI SST (-6 ) DJF AOI SST (-7 ) DJF AOI SST (-8 ) DJF AOI SST (-9 ) DJF AOI SST (-10 ) DJF AOI SST (-11 ) DJF AOI SST (-12 ) DJF AOI SST (-13 ) DJF AOI SST (-14 ) DJF AOI SST (-15 ) DJF AOI SST (-16 ) DJF AOI SST (-17 ) DJF AOI SST (-18 ) DJF AOI SST (-19 ) DJF AOI SST (-20 ) DJF AOI SST (-21 ) DJF AOI SST (-22 ) DJF AOI SST (-23 ) DJF AOI SST (-24 ) DJF AOI SST (-25 ) DJF AOI SST (-26 ) vii

9 96 DJF AOI SST (-27 ) DJF AOI SST (-28 ) DJF AOI SST (-29 ) DJF AOI SST (-30 ) viii

10 1 (Delworth and Mann 2000) 100 (Meehl et al. 2007; 2009) 1.1 AO, PDO, AMO (Arctic Oscillation; AO) Thompson and Wallace (1998) (NDJFMA:11 4 ) 20 (Sea Level Pressure; SLP) (Empirical Orthogonal Function; EOF) AO AO (Arctic Oscillation Index; AOI) AO 1( ) 2( ) AOI (Thompson and Wallace 2001) AO 1

11 (North Atlantic Oscillation NAO: Walker and Bliss 1932;Hurrell 1996) AO NAO (Ambaum et al. 2008; 2004) NAO ( ) (Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PDO) Mantua et al. (1997) 10 3( ) 4( ) PDO (Mantua and Hare 2000) PDO 20 (Sea Surface Temperature; SST) EOF (Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PDOI) PDOI (2009) Mochizuki et al. (2010) PDO Mochizuki et al. (2010) Shiogama et al. (2007) PDO ( 6) ( 7) PDO Schneider and Cornuelle (2005) PDO Nino 3.4 sst (NPI; North Pacific Index) (KOE; Kuroshio-Oyashio Extent) PDO ( 8) 2

12 1.1.3 (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation; AMO) ( ) 5( ) ( Dima and Lohmann 2007) Mann and Delworth (2000) SST SLP Enfield et al. (1999) ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation; ) SST EOF SST Kerr (2000) (Thermohaline Circulation; THC) AMO Enfield et al. (2001) AMOI (AMO Index; ) 0 SST (SSTA) AMO Dima and Lohmann(1999) AMO : SLP AMO ( 9) 1.2 ( ) AO SLP AOI PDOI 1950 AO Lin et al. (2002) Jia et al. (2009) AOI SST ( 10) Deser (2000) AO NAO 3

13 AO Eden and Greatbatch (2003) AOI AO NAO Cohen and Barlow (2005) AOI sst (Indo-Pacific sst; sst) sst AO NAO PDO Schwing et al. (2003) PDO Schneider and Cornuelle (2005) PDO ( 8) NPI PDO (PDO 73 ) Nino 3.4 SSTA(SST Anomaly; ) (PDO 23 ) NPI PDO EOF AO PDO NPI Newman et al. (2003) NPI PDO 1 Enfield (1999) AMOI SSTA SSTA 40 Enfield AMO Enfield AMO SSTA AMOI Enfield et al. (1999) AMO AMO Dima and Lohmann (2007) AMO ( 9) AMO AO PDO AMO AO PDO AMO SST Kumar and Hoerling (2003) SST 1 3 4

14 SST 1 3 SST AO Jia et al. (2009)( 10) SST AO SST AO Kumar and Hoerling (2003) SST Alexander et al. (2002) Atmospheric Bridge ( )( 11) ENSO ( ) Atmospheric Bridge ENSO (Q net ) (W e) (V ek ) (Trenberth et al. 1998) SST 60 ( 12) PDO Atmospheric Bridge AO PDO Sun and Wang (2006)( 13) AO 6 10 PDO AO SST AO 1 12 SST SST 10 (PDO) (AMO) (Arctic Oscillation: AO) 5

15 2 AO PDO AMO AO PDOI AMOI AOI SST 6

16 3 3.1 AO x(t) τ (τ ) C(τ) = x(τ) + x(t + τ) (1) C(τ) τ = 0 C(0) S(ω) x(t) X(ω) (power spectral density) 2πX(ω)X(ω) S(ω) = lim T T (2)

17 x(t) y(t) 1 C xy (τ) = x(t)x(t + τ) = lim T T T/2 T/2 x(t)x(t + τ)dt (3) 0 S xy (ω) = 1 C xy (τ)e iωτ dτ = K xy (ω) iq xy (ω) (4) 2π K xy Q xy (ω) coh 2 (ω) = S xy(ω) 2 S x (ω)s y (ω) (5) θ xy (ω) = tan 1 ( Q xy(ω) K xy (ω) ) (6) S x(ω) X(t) Y (t) SST SST AOI SST PDOI( ) AMOI( ) x y r xy = S xy S x S y = (xi x)(y i ȳ) (x i x) 2 (y i ȳ) 2 (7) 8

18 S x S y x y (standard deviation) S xy x y (covariance) HadISST AOI SST AOI 1 HadISST PDO AMO AO DJF AOI DJF SST AOI SST AOI SST SST AOI 9

19 4 4.1 AOI( ) AOI JISAO (Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean) PDOI( ) PDOI JISAO(Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean) SST AMOI( ) AMOI (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NOAA) Exstended SST version2 (Kaplan,1998) SST SST HadISST(Rayner et al 2003) HadISST Parker et al (1995) GISST (Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature) MDB (Marine Data Bank; Parker et al 1995) NOAA ICOADS(International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) (Woodruff et al. 2003) SST SST

20 5 5.1 ( ) x y AOI ( 17) ( 20) AOI PDOI ( 18) ( 21) PDOI 100 AMOI ( 19) ( 22) AMOI ( ) AOI( 23) PDOI( 23) AMOI( 24) AOI AOI PDOI 0 30 AMOI 23 AOI PDOI 0 10 AOI PDOI AOI PDOI AOI PDOI PDOI AOI

21 AOI AMOI AOI AMOI AOI AOI (reverse Fourier Transformation) 25 AOI( ) PDOI AOI 120 AOI 26 AOI( ) AMOI AOI AOI SST T AOI SST AOI SST ( ) 0.3 ( ) (2009) PDOI AMOI SST 15 PDOI (NPI) SST ( ) SST PDO (PDOI ) 12

22 16 AMOI AMOI (AMO ) AMO PDO AMO AOI SST AOI (1 4 ) SST AO (NDJFM: 11 3 ) AO AMO (7 8 ) DJF AOI DJF SST (AOI ) DJF +0 PDO AOI AMOI SST ( 16) AO AMO PDO ( 13

23 ) ( )+26 AO PDO AMOI AMOI AO AO DJF AOI DJF SST (SST ) AO AOI SST 14

24 6 6.1 AOI PDOI AMOI AOI AOI AOI PDOI AOI AOI AOI SLP NPI(North Pacific Index) AMOI AOI 11 AMOI 90 AMOI SST AOI 6.2 AOI SST AOI PDOI AMOI SST PDOI AMOI SST Lanzante(1996; 1 ) (IND CPAC EPCA NATL ) ( ) SST ( 99 ) 15 PDOI Lanzante (Principal Component Analysis; PCA) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; ) SST McCabe and Palecki(2006) PDSI SST PDOI 15

25 AMOI PDOI AMOI 1 AOI SST AOI Jia et al. (2009) Kumar and Hoerling (2003) SST SST SST DJF AOI SST 1 AO SST SST AOI AO 10 1 AO AOI SST ( ) 1950 ( ) DJF DJF AOI SST AO SST AO AOI SST AOI PDO AO NAO AOI AMOI SST AO PDO AO AMO SST 16

26 7 PDO( ) AMO( ) AO( ) AOI PDOI AMOI SST AOI 1 AO SST DJF AOI SST (AOI SST ) SST 1 AOI SST AOI PDOI AMOI AO PDO AMO 300 (Moore et al. 2002) 1661 (Biondi et al. 2001) PDO 1567 (Gray et al. 2004) AMO PDO AMO AO (D Arrigo et al. 2002) Robertson (2001) SST SST 17

27 GMT (The Generic Mapping Tools; Wessel and Smith, 1991) 18

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33 9 24

34 1: ( ). 2: ( ). 25

35 3: ( ) (JISAO ). 4: ( ) (JISAO ). 26

36 5: ( ) (Wikipedia ). 27

37 6: Mochizuki et al. (2010) PDO. 7: Mochizuki et al. (2010) PDO. 28

38 8: Schneider and Cornuelle (2005) PDO. 9: Dima and Lohmann (2007) AMO. 29

39 10: SST AO (Jia et al. 2009). 11: (Atmospheric Bridge; Alexander at al. 2001). 30

40 12: SST 60 (Alexander et al. 2001). 13: AO SST 6 10 (Sun and Wang 2009). 31

41 14: AOI SST. 15: PDOI SST. 32

42 16: AMOI SST. 33

43 17: AOI. 18: PDOI. 19: AMOI. 34

44 20: AOI. 21: PDOI. 35

45 22: AMOI. 36

46 23: AOI PDOI. 37

47 24: AOI AMOI. 38

48 25: AOI PDOI. 39

49 26: AOI AMOI. 40

50 27: 1 AOI 1 SST. 28: 1 AOI 2 SST. 41

51 29: 1 AOI 3 SST. 30: 1 AOI 4 SST. 42

52 31: 1 AOI 5 SST. 32: 1 AOI 6 SST. 43

53 33: 1 AOI 7 SST. 34: 1 AOI 8 SST. 44

54 35: 1 AOI 9 SST. 36: 1 AOI 10 SST. 45

55 37: 1 AOI 11 SST. 38: 1 AOI 12 SST. 46

56 39: DJF AOI SST (+0 ). 40: DJF AOI SST (+1 ). 47

57 41: DJF AOI SST (+2 ). 42: DJF AOI SST (+3 ). 48

58 43: DJF AOI SST (+4 ). 44: DJF AOI SST (+5 ). 49

59 45: DJF AOI SST (+6 ). 46: DJF AOI SST (+7 ). 50

60 47: DJF AOI SST (+8 ). 48: DJF AOI SST (+9 ). 51

61 49: DJF AOI SST (+10 ). 50: DJF AOI SST (+11 ). 52

62 51: DJF AOI SST (+12 ). 52: DJF AOI SST (+13 ). 53

63 53: DJF AOI SST (+14 ). 54: DJF AOI SST (+15 ). 54

64 55: DJF AOI SST (+16 ). 56: DJF AOI SST (+17 ). 55

65 57: DJF AOI SST (+18 ). 58: DJF AOI SST (+19 ). 56

66 59: DJF AOI SST (+20 ). 60: DJF AOI SST (+21 ). 57

67 61: DJF AOI SST (+22 ). 62: DJF AOI SST (+23 ). 58

68 63: DJF AOI SST (+24 ). 64: DJF AOI SST (+25 ). 59

69 65: DJF AOI SST (+26 ). 66: DJF AOI SST (+27 ). 60

70 67: DJF AOI SST (+28 ). 68: DJF AOI SST (+29 ). 61

71 69: DJF AOI SST (+30 ). 62

72 70: DJF AOI SST (-1 ). 71: DJF AOI SST (-2 ). 63

73 72: DJF AOI SST (-3 ). 73: DJF AOI SST (-4 ). 64

74 74: DJF AOI SST (-5 ). 75: DJF AOI SST (-6 ). 65

75 76: DJF AOI SST (-7 ). 77: DJF AOI SST (-8 ). 66

76 78: DJF AOI SST (-9 ). 79: DJF AOI SST (-10 ). 67

77 80: DJF AOI SST (-11 ). 81: DJF AOI SST (-12 ). 68

78 82: DJF AOI SST (-13 ). 83: DJF AOI SST (-14 ). 69

79 84: DJF AOI SST (-15 ). 85: DJF AOI SST (-16 ). 70

80 86: DJF AOI SST (-17 ). 87: DJF AOI SST (-18 ). 71

81 88: DJF AOI SST (-19 ). 89: DJF AOI SST (-20 ). 72

82 90: DJF AOI SST (-21 ). 91: DJF AOI SST (-22 ). 73

83 92: DJF AOI SST (-23 ). 93: DJF AOI SST (-24 ). 74

84 94: DJF AOI SST (-25 ). 95: DJF AOI SST (-26 ). 75

85 96: DJF AOI SST (-27 ). 97: DJF AOI SST (-28 ). 76

86 98: DJF AOI SST (-30 ). 99: DJF AOI SST (-30 ). 77

宮本大輔山川修治

宮本大輔山川修治 No.53 2018 pp.163 175 PDO The Relationships between Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Synoptic Climate System Daisuke MIYAMOTO and Shuji YAMAKAWA Accepted November 30, 2017 We investigated the relationships