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5 中国とロシアの間や 中国と中央アジアの間 そしてそれ以外のユーラシアの陸域で 境 界紛争が随時解決していったことが その証左といえるでしょう 陸域は以前に比べれば あくまで相対的にですが 静かで安定したものになりました 他方で 海域は 人類が先進 技術や諸活動を通じてそれを利用できるようになるにつれて エネルギーや資源を求めて注 目される存在となっています しかしながら 私たちは海域の紛争について十分な経験や解 決策をいまだもっていません ですから人類にとって狭くなりつつある海域でどのように私 たちが共存しうるか その方法を急いで探し出すため 議論する必要があります ロシア 中国 インドという三つのユーラシア大国は それぞれ海へのリーチをもってい ます 最近 その競合が注目されているのは ロシアの北極海です インドも基本的に大陸 国家ですが 海に向かって活動しています そして中国に関しては この薄い紫色が係争海 域です ロバート カプランが Foreign Affairs に最近書いた論文に掲載されている地図をご存じで しょう この地図で 中国の影響圏にインドや韓国も含まれています 今日 私たちはこの ような地図のもつリアリティについても議論したいと思います 私たちは中国の友人たちとも率直に議論を行っています 私たちは孤立して勝手に議論し ているわけではありません 境界研究 には 中国のボーダースタディーズの指導的な研究 センターの専門家が 中国の海域境界について論じた論文も含まれています そして今日は ブルッキングスで米国の友人たちと討論します ブッシュさんの新しい本が 尖閣諸島の問 題に多くの頁を割いているのはすでにご存じでしょう 日本はこれまで周りを海に囲まれ 大陸の紛争地帯から少し離れていることで安全だった といえます 私たち日本人はユーラシア陸域の国境紛争について以前は真剣に考える必要が ありませんでした だから 日本には境界問題にかんする深い知見がなく これを研究する 5
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16 Japan s Senkaku Islands Uotsurijima Island (Photo: Koichi Sato) Taishojima Island (Photo: Koichi Sato) 16
17 Japan s Senkaku Islands Kubajima Island (Photo: Koichi Sato) Kitakojima Island & Minamikojima Island (Photo: Koichi Sato)
18 South China Sea and China s Broken U shaped Line Source: Hainansheng Quantu, Xinhua Shudian, 1988 U 4 U 18
19 50 Spratly Islands: Malaysia s Swallow Reef Artificial Island from Air: Airstrip (Photo: Koichi Sato) Artificial Island from Lagoon (Photo: Koichi Sato) Spratly Islands: Malaysia s Swallow Reef Developing a Diving Resort (Photo: Koichi Sato) Malaysian Navy Base (Photo: Koichi Sato) 19
20 U % 75.5% 9.2% 錆 Table 1: Comparison of the Main Warships Crew Submarine Aircraft Carrier Cruiser Destroyer Frigate % of the Total (10000) gas turbine USA % 191 Japan China (1) Source Sekai No Kaigun : Ships of the World, Kiajinsha Publishing, 2010, Tokyo) China has two newly developed Shang class nuclear submarines, two Yuan class diesel submarines and twelve Russian made Kilo class diesel submarines, though five nuclear submarines and nineteen Ming class diesel submarines have the noisy old engines. The total number of Chinese warships is two times the JMSDF s, though the number of seamen is 5.2 times the JMSDF s. The PLA Navy is oversupplied with crew. The PLA Navy s capability to orchestrate many warships is not that of a full fledged blue water navy. The PLA Navy couldn t practice a mobile style fleet review. Numbers of Tankers for Replenishment at Sea: USA 18, JMSDF 5, China 5 20
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