90 ª ª * E-mailshinobu.nakagawa@boj.or.jp i
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SNA 1 70 80 2 80 90 80 80 90 1 80 90 98 6 1 1 SNA 2 1 SNA 80 1SNA 1 19931998 1
2-190 1,2 2 2-2 2-3,4 3 2-5 4 2030 2-3 3 2-15 97 20 90 2-15 9198 1. 1 2 3 5 4 2. 3. 30 20 40 50 60 4. 60 20 50 30 40 5. 9798 1. 3 2 4 1 5 2. 3. 30 40 50 60 20 5. 9197 2 5 15 98 1 494 2 494646 3 646808 4 8081047 5 1047 3 4 1 2
5 1 1 1 2-1 98 6 * c = a 1 * income + a 2 * age + a * c = 0(c < g 1 ) * c = 1( g 1 c < g 2 ) * c = 2( g < c ) 2 3 * hom e + a 4 * area c 97 98 012 income 60 5000 age 20 30 40 50 6064 6569 70 7 home 01 area 12 4 3 2 4 4 1 2 5 1 6 97 98 a 1 5 6 3 1 2 7 25 35 45 55 62.5 67.5 72.5 3
a 2 a 3,a 4 8 9798 1 a 1 a 2 a 3 a 4 1 2 Pseudo-R 2 0.0003 (4.37) <0.00> -0.0124 (-7.58) <0.00> 0.0045 (0.09) <0.93> 0.0065 (0.61) <0.54> -1.1574 (-12.40) <0.00> 0.2534 (2.76) <0.01> 0.013 3415 z t p 5% 99 c 98 99 012 a 4 9 9899 2 a 1 a 2 a 3 a 4 1 2 Pseudo-R 2 0.0001-0.0039-0.0266-0.0288-0.5634 1.0731 (1.42) (-2.30) (-0.53) (-2.60) (-5.97) (11.27) 0.003 <0.16> <0.02> <0.60> <0.01> <0.00> <0.00> 8 2-1 2 98 5 9 4
90 3-1 90 98 6 10 3-280 90 11 10 500 50 400 50 600 500 11 93 95 5,000 5
s = b + b * r + b * yf + b it i 0 i1 t i 2 it i3 * risk it s i i r 12 CPI yf i i 3-1 risk i i 3-2 i= 3 adjr 2 6169 b 3 13 b 1 b 0 3 < 1 > < 3 > < 5 > b 0 b 1 b 2 b 3 AR1 adjr 2 S.E./B-G 9.79 0.10 0.07 0.29 0.65 0.69 1.79 (2.00) (0.97) (0.68) (2.86) (7.80) 0.447 17.87-0.07 0.07 0.44 0.62 0.61 1.77 (3.56) (-0.66) (0.66) (4.18) (7.12) 0.013 28.81-0.23-0.01 0.11 0.72 0.63 1.80 (5.64) (-2.37) (-0.14) (1.66) (10.86) 0.012 1 76/298/4Q t S.E. 1% B-G Breusch-Godfrey p H 0 1 2 p 1 12 13 76/298/4Q 37.743.5 39.245.9 46.451.4 6
3-1 1 2 5 1 848994 500 14 4 94 50 2 98 500 15 16 1 5-1 1 5-25060 50 500 90 6-1 17 90 4060 6-290 14 94 1 487 15 98 1 494 16 17 6 7
6-3 2-3 90 2030 7-1 20 34 7-2 7-32030 2-3,4 90 8-180 8-290 18 80 18 1994 89 8
1 9-1 6064 65 60 65 9-2(1) 19 10-1 10-2 97 65 11-1 60 20 65 11-260 1 1073 70 742 1994 Hayashi, Ando and Ferris1988 89 94 8-2 1015 19 9-2(2) 20 9
1 12-1 60 70 6 21 2040 12-2(1) 22 1 Horioka1993 Hayashi1998 23 24 12-2(1),(2) 21 22 23 Altonji, Hayashi and Kotlikoff1992Hayashi, Altonji and Kotlikoff1996Hayashi1995 24 Bernheim, Shleifer and Summers1985 strategic bequest motive 10
12-2(3) 60 2 strategic bequest motive 2 7-3 12-1 13-1 25 13-2(1) 13-2(2) 1 2,600 13-2(3) 26 25 4 26 11
90 3 3 80 90 90 50 60 14-1 2-3 27 9-2(2) accidental bequest transitory income Abel1985 27 14-2 60 14-3 12
28 12 PR 15 300400 16 HUD HUD-HECMHome Equity Conversion Mortgage89 97/1 18,000 28 13 13
ordered probit model Y i 01 2 3 Y i Y * i latent variable * Yi = a1 + a 2X i + ei (1) 29 X i Y i (1)X i * i Y i * ì0 Yi g1 ï * Y i = í1 if g1 < Yi g 2 (2) ï * î2 g < Y 2 i (2) 1 2 0 1 2 (1) a 1 a 2 (1) i 30 F() - i =a 1 +a 2 X i -Y * i Y i =0,1,2 Pr(Yi = 0;X i,a, g) = 1- F(a1 + a 2Xi - g1) Pr(Yi = 1;X i,a, g) = F(a1 + a 2Xi - g1) - F(a1 + a 2Xi - g 2 ) (3) Pr(Y = 2;X,a, g) = F(a + a X - g ) i i 1 2 i 2 29 1 30 i ordered logit model 14
(3) 4 a 1,a 2, 1, 2 Y i log likelihood function, LLF LLF(a, g) = log Õ Yi = 0 Pr(Y = 0;X,a, g) + log i i Õ Yi = 1 Pr(Y = 1;X,a, g) + logõ Pr(Yi = 2;X i,a, g) (4) Y i = 2 4 (4) LLF i i 15
Abel, A. B.1985, Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests, American Economic Review, Vol.75. Altonji, J., Hayashi, F. and Kotlikoff, L.1992, Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data, American Economic Review, Vol.82. Altonji, J., Hayashi, F. and Kotlikoff, L.1995, Parental Altruism and Inter Vivos Transfers: Theory and Evidence, NBER Working Paper 5378. Banks, J., Blundell, R. and Tanner, S.1998, Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?, American Economic Review, Vol.88. Barro, R. J. and Friedman, J. W.1977, On Uncertain Lifetimes, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85. Bernheim, B. D., Shleifer, A. and Summers, L. H.1985, The Strategic Bequest Motive, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.93. Carlson, J. A. and Parkin, M.1975, Inflation Expectation, Economica 42. Carroll, C. D. and Samwick, A. A.1998, How Important is Precautionary Saving?, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.LXXX. Hayashi, F.1986, Why Is Japan s Saving Rate So Apparently High?, in S. Fischer, ed., Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 1, National Bureau of Economic Research. Hayashi, F., Ando, A. and Ferris, R.1988, Life Cycle and Bequest Savings, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2. Hayashi, F.1995, Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test Based on Engel Curves, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.103. Hayashi, F., Altonji, J. and Kotlikoff, L.1996, Risk-sharing between and within Families, Econometrica, Vol.64. Hayashi, F.1998, Understanding Saving, MIT Press. Higgins, M.1998, Demography, National Savings and International Capital Flows, International Economic Review, Vol.39, No.2. Horioka, C. Y.1984, The Applicability of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving to Japan, The Kyoto University Economic Review, 54, No.2. Horioka, C. Y.1989, Why Is Japan s Private Saving Rate So high?, In Ryuzo Sato and Takashi Negishi (eds.), Developments in Japanese Economics. Tokyo : Academic Press / Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Japan, Inc.. Horioka, C. Y.1993, Saving in Japan, in Heertje, A., eds., World Savings, Blackwell Publishers, UK / USA. 1998 10 10 7 1998 6 1993 12 2 1994 No.27 16
96 () () () () 81/4 1 65 90/4 70 92/10 65 91/7 1 65 94/3 1 65 96/12 94 87/12 60 2 87/1 60 1 84/3 65 1 84/4 70 70 1 85/2 70 2 85/4 65 2 89/2 65 1 2 89/4 60 1 98