94 20 21 2000 6 10 30 = 1971 3 2000 6 17 = B al-ra īl al-qadīm al-dimā al-jadīdah 1 2000 9 28 = 2001 2 2001 9 11 10 7 = 1
95 2 3 B The Brink of Peace 2 1963 3 1947 7 3
4 1978 9 1946 4 1960 1955 1958 1961 5 1970 11 13 3 11 16 al- arakah al-ta ī īyah infitā 6 7 strategic parity 1980 10 96
97 = madrasat āfi al-asad 8 1970 1980 1972 3 9 1960 10 1980 1982 1986 1989 PLFP DFLP PFLP-GC =
98 = PLFP PFPL-GC 11 1975 1989 1988 7 11 PNC 12 PNC 242 338 1991 10 1992 7 1995 11 1993 9 1994 5
99 7 1994 8 1995 9 1996 5 1998 10 1994 7 10 1989 11 defensive sufficiency 2 1990 8 1 1991 10 180 12 1980 1990 1989 10 1990 10 1976 6
100 al-salām al- ādil wa-al-shāmil 2 1991 5 4 10 13 2 5 22 9 1993 2000 14 1995 11 1996 6
non-paper and a whole host of hypothetical and conditional statements 15 5 2 2 3 1967 6 1995 11 4 1996 2 3 5 1996 6 1999 5 1 16 101
102 2 marja īyah 1996 6 khiyār istrātījī 17 2000 5 1999 5 2001 2 425 426 2000 6 10 30
Syria of Asad 18 B 2000 7 17 al-fikr al-mubdi al-naqd al-bannā shafāfīyah al-fikr al-mu assasātī al-fikr al-dīmuqrā ī mas ūlīyah istimrārīyat al-nahj B 19 B 2000 9 2000 7 2000 10 3 2001 4 7 B B 103
104 2000 10 22 23 salām al-qūwah salām al-aqwiyā 20 B B 1990 B
21 B 2001 6 B B 2001 9 11 10 7 B PFLP DFLP 22 105
106 B 2001 9 19 B 1 10 7 10 31 B 9 11 1970 1980 23 B
107 2001 10 1 2 = PFLP 24 25 26 2001 1 29 B 2002 1 31
1. B 1 = 31 2001 7 13 37 2 = 32 2002 35 65 Hiroyuki Aoyama, History Does Not Repeat Itself (Or Does It?!): The Political Changes in Syria after āfi al-asad s Death, Chiba: IDE-JETRO, 2001 2. Itamar Rabinovich, The Brink of Peace: the Israeli-Syrian Negotiations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998, p. 14. 3. 1948 5 1947 Dustūr izb al-ba th al- Arabī 3-2 6 23 1947 11 Majlis al- izb Dustūr izb al-ba th al- Arabī, Damascus: Ma ba at al-i tidāl, 1947; izb al-ba th al- Arabī al-ishtirākī, al-qiyādah al-qawmīyah, Ni āl izb al-ba th al- Arabī al-ishtirākī 1943-1975, Damascus: Ma ba at al-qiyādah al-qawmīyah, 1978, p. 27; 1983 40 41 4. Rabinovich, The Brink of Peace, p. 20. 5. Patrick Seale, The Struggle for Syria: A Study of a Post-War Arab Politics 1945-1958, London: Oxford University Press, 1965 6.?! 1990 = 25 1998 9 19 34 ; Aoyama, 108
History Does Not Repeat Itself (Or Does It?!), pp. 5-10; 149 154 7. Moshe Ma oz, The Emergence of Modern Syria, Moshe Ma oz and Avner Yaniv, eds., Syria under Assad: Domestic Constraints and Regional Risks, London: Croom Helm, 1986, p. 9. 8. Fī iwār Shāmil ma a al- ayāh, Bashshār al-asad: Al-Tafā ul bi-al-salām lā Ya nī al-harwalah, Al-Wasa, No. 395, August 1999, p. 10; 1990 28 2000 3 43 44 9. = 10. 1972 = 1973 = 1974 = 1982 1994 1986 11. Gary C. Gambill, Will the Bush Administration Break with Syria?, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, Vol.3, No.11, November 2001 (http://www.meib.org/articles/ 0111_sl.htm). 12. 1992 15 13. 2 10 Hans Hopfinger & Marc Boeckler, Step by Step an Open Economic System: Syria Sets Course for Liberalization, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 23, No. 2, 1996, pp. 109
183-202 14. Rabinovich, The Brink of Peace, pp. 85, 129. 15. Rabinovich, The Brink of Peace, p. 10. 16. 1995 Al-Wafd, 8 January 1996 17. Alan Makovsky, The Arab Summit: Syria s Qualified success, in The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Peace Watch, No. 102, June 25, 1996 (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/watch/peacewatch/peacewatch1996/102. htm). 18. Patrick Seale, Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East, London: I.B. Tauris, 1988, p. 494. 19. B Al-Ba th, Damascus, July 18, 2000 20. B Tishrīn, Damascus, October 22, 2000 21. = 2000 8 22. Michael Slackman, Bin Laden s Mother Tried to Stop Him, Syrian Kin Say, Chicago Tribune (Internet Edition), November 13, 2001 (http://chicagotribune.com/ news/nationworld/chi-0111130207nov13.story). 23. President Assad Held Talks with British Premier, SANA (Syrian Arab News Agency), Damascus, October 31, 2001 (http://www.sana-syria.com/english/ mainen.htm). 24. http://www.laruta.com/earlier/lebanon.htm. 25. Interview with Ibrāhīm al- amīdī, Tokyo January 25, 2002. 26. Syrian Conditions to Resume Negotiations with Israel, Arabicnews.com, January 3, 2002 (http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/daily/day/020103/ 2002010310.html) ; Al-Wa an, January 2.2002. 110