Coulibaly & Fontagné Finger & Kreinin 1979 Lee Coulibaly & Fontagné 2004 Coulibaly & Fontagné distance 4 i
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1 1 2 3 Iwata, Kato, Shibasaki 2010 GDP Kurmanalieva 2008 Kurmanalieva
2 Coulibaly & Fontagné Finger & Kreinin 1979 Lee Coulibaly & Fontagné 2004 Coulibaly & Fontagné distance 4 i j k Coulibaly & Fontagné 2004 regional context extra-regional context regional context regional context extra-regional context extraregional distance inland distance extra-regional distance inland distance 170
3 Coulibaly & Fontagné 2004 Coulibaly & Fontagné 2004 Coulibaly & Fontagné GDP GDP GDP 171
4 WDI SITC rev
5 SITC GDP EU % % EU % % EU EU EU 7 173
6 KAZ KYR TAJ TUR UZB COMTRADE 174
7 175
8 COMTRADE Finger & Kreinin 1979 Lee 1997 Finger & Kreinin 1979 Lee 1997 ASEAN5 EU ASEAN5 EU ASEAN5 ESI= Σi EX i bc EX i ac EX i bc 2 176
9 EX i ac a c i EX i bc b c i a b c a b ASEAN5 2 SITC rev EU ASEAN EU ASEAN ASEAN5 EU ASEAN5 9 Coulibaly & Fontagné
10 Year Japan Korea China USA France Germany Italy UK Russia Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan-Tajikistan Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan-Turkmenistan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Tajikistan-Turkmenistan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a Tajikistan-Uzbekistan ASEAN Year Japan Korea China USA France Germany Italy UK Russia Singapore-Malaysia Singapore-Indonesia Singapore-Philippines Singapore-Thailand
11 ASEAN Year Japan Korea China USA France Germany Italy UK Russia Malaysia-Indonesia Malaysia-Philippines Malaysia-Thailand Indonesia-Philippines Indonesia-Thailand Philippines-Thailand ln EXm ij β t 0 β 1 ln GDPH i t β 2 ln GDPF j t β 3 ln DISTANCE ij j β 4 ln REMOTENESS t β 5 ln LANDLOCK j t β 6 ln KLD i t β 7 ln FDI j t β 8 GNID ij t β 9 ln INFRA j t β 10 Dummy v G GDP-H GDP-F GNID KLD GNID 179
12 GDP-H t i GDP GDP-F t j GDP DISTANCE i j REMOTENESS t j LANDLOCK j KLD or t i FDI t j FDI GNID or t i j GNI INFRA or t j DISTANCE LANDLOCK CEPII World Development Indicator KLD FDI INFRA FDI FDI FDI GDP 180
13 REMOTENESS Σj 1 n DISTANCE ij GDP j t w /n GDP t 2 Coulibaly & Fontagne FDI INFRA GDP 181
14 Kazakhstan (Trade Value) GDP-H (3.80)** (3.64)** (4.94)** (6.24)** (5.20)** (6.54)** GDP-F (4.06)** (4.47)** (5.97)** (5.80)** (4.92)** (5.11)** Distance (2.50)* (4.94)** (5.75)** (6.25)** (4.89)** (6.78)** (3.07)** (3.22)** (2.89)** (3.84)** Remoteness (2.50)* (1.98)* (3.09)** (4.68)** (0.71) (2.64)** (3.59)** (4.97)** (0.90) (2.69)** Landlock (0.33) (0.14) (0.66) (0.88) (0.14) (0.48) (0.93) (0.94) (0.22) (0.78) KLD (1.44) (1.58) (3.28)** (4.77)** (3.08)** (4.65)** FDI (1.32) (1.29) (3.65)** (5.06)** (1.74) (3.95)** (3.33)** (4.44)** (1.60) (3.50)** GNID (2.03)* (2.23)* (4.54)** (3.08)** (3.49)** (1.97)* Infrastructure (1.99)* (2.56)* (0.30) (3.46)** (0.18) (2.68)** Europe (0.34) (0.72) (1.36) (1.53) (1.67) East asia (1.43) (2.18)* (2.91)** (1.55) (2.09)* Russia (0.95) (1.13) (1.39) (1.11) (1.19) Soviet (2.33)* (2.28)* (2.50)* (2.26)* (2.74)** NAFTA (0.08) (0.38) (0.91) (0.47) (0.65) CA (0.55) (0.49) (0.40) (0.04) (0.21) ASEAN (1.27) (1.95) (2.12)* (0.83) 1.06 Constant (1.06) (0.58) (2.95)** (5.09)** (1.08) (3.46)** (3.37)** (5.21)** (1.16) (3.29)** R-squared Observations Number of ID Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses *significant at 5%; **significant at 1% 182
15 Kyrgyzstan (Trade Value) GDP-H (0.69) (0.64) (1.66) (1.64) (1.71) (1.78) GDP-F (1.10) (1.67) (4.47)** (5.06)** (3.36)** (4.37)** Distance (3.21)** (4.81)** (4.70)** (5.62)** (4.96)** (5.69)** (3.25)** (3.70)** (3.40)** (3.55)** Remoteness (2.85)** (2.96)** (3.29)** (3.10)** (3.62)** (3.82)** (3.22)** (3.00)** (3.55)** (3.59)** Landlock (2.06)* (2.27)* (2.11)* (2.38)* (2.33)* (2.64)** (1.98)* (2.19)* (2.11)* (2.34)* KLD (0.66) (0.66) (1.51) (1.50) (1.56) (1.54) FDI (0.50) (0.62) (0.33) (0.94) (0.59) (0.12) (0.32) (0.99) (0.49) (0.01) GNID (0.56) (0.36) (3.88)** (3.78)** (2.95)** (3.08)** Infrastructure (0.37) (0.17) (0.07) (0.14) (0.21) (0.35) Europe (0.56) (0.76) (0.63) (0.62) (0.93) East asia (1.24) (1.70) (1.60) (1.11) (0.90) Russia (1.36) (1.57) (1.61) (1.33) (1.29) Soviet (1.18) (1.04) (1.26) (1.25) (1.58) NAFTA (0.78) (1.11) (1.18) (0.75) (0.58) CA (0.14) (0.09) (0.10) (0.24) (0.13) ASEAN (0.14) (0.27) (0.34) (0.03) (0.64) Constant (4.30)** (4.34)** (4.49)** (4.89)** (4.37)** (5.00)** (4.49)** (4.58)** (4.32)** (4.51)** R-squared Observations Number of ID Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses *significant at 5%; **significant at 1% 183
16 Tajikistan Trade Value GDP-H (0.76) (1.07) (1.85) (3.08)** (1.47) (2.90)** GDP-F (0.35) (0.34) (5.99)** (7.43)** (5.19)** (6.48)** Distance (2.75)** (4.04)** (4.21)** (5.41)** (3.98)** (6.29)** (2.80)** (3.77)** (2.73)** (4.66)** Remoteness (2.01)* (2.45)* (2.85)** (3.87)** (2.42)* (3.63)** (2.44)* (3.66)** (2.21)* (3.42)** Landlock (0.68) (1.33) (1.32) (2.31)* (1.17) (1.61) (0.66) (1.77) (0.58) (1.04) KLD (0.49) (0.43) (1.38) (2.46)* (1.20) (2.28)* FDI (1.19) (1.15) (1.23) (0.15) (0.94) (0.54) (1.29) (0.13) (1.01) (0.44) GNID (1.70) (1.75) (6.05)** (7.40)** (5.36)** (6.70)** Infrastructure (0.15) (0.16) (0.21) (2.85)** (0.26) (2.74)** Europe (0.53) (0.60) (0.15) (0.48) (0.79) East asia (0.02) (0.07) (0.21) (0.18) (0.21) Russia (1.53) (1.52) (1.58) (1.62) (1.68) Soviet (0.13) (0.11) (0.10) (0.32) (0.02) NAFTA (0.35) (0.32) (0.34) (0.28) (0.02) CA (1.68) (1.71) (1.50) (1.52) (1.18) ASEAN (1.32) (1.23) (1.02) (1.77) (1.40) Constant (2.51)* (3.04)** (3.39)** (4.45)** (2.71)** (4.39)** (2.92)** (4.13)** (2.36)* (4.11)** R-squared Observations Number of ID Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses *significant at 5%; **significant at 1% 184
17 Turkmenistan Trade Value GDP-H (0.49) (0.20) (0.14) (0.97) (0.27) (0.55) GDP-F (0.59) (0.43) (4.29)** (4.28)** (4.85)** (4.35)** Distance (4.17)** (5.45)** (5.89)** (8.43)** (5.34)** (8.06)** (4.26)** (6.35)** (4.14)** (6.02)** Remoteness (2.04)* (1.42) (1.30) (1.68) (1.75) (2.41)* (1.61) (1.38) (2.42)* (2.31)* Landlock (0.17) (1.11) (1.25) (1.58) (1.17) (1.19) (0.10) (0.63) (0.05) (0.11) KLD (1.27) (0.87) (0.70) (1.99)* (1.11) (1.82) FDI (0.35) (0.36) (0.21) (1.00) (0.47) (1.63) (0.23) (0.67) (0.55) (1.41) GNID (2.61)** (2.34)* (5.31)** (5.87)** (5.73)** (5.73)** Infrastructure (0.51) (0.17) (0.48) (1.33) (0.87) (1.03) Europe (0.84) (0.16) (1.60) (1.15) (0.40) East asia (0.61) (0.47) (0.35) (0.68) (0.30) Russia (0.46) (0.32) (0.09) (0.31) (0.04) Soviet (4.00)** (3.76)** (3.53)** (3.72)** (3.33)** NAFTA (1.33) (0.46) (1.27) (1.34) (1.35) CA (0.64) (0.45) (0.25) (0.80) (0.31) ASEAN (0.34) (0.53) (1.42) (0.55) (1.21) Constant (2.47)* (2.06)* (2.30)* (2.98)** (2.27)* (3.53)** (2.33)* (2.46)* (2.65)** (3.15)** R-squared Observations Number of ID Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses *significant at 5%; **significant at 1% 185
18 Uzbekistan (Trade Value) GDP-H (0.05) (0.10) (1.30) (2.63)** (1.37) (2.75)** GDP-F (3.63)** (3.75)** (5.40)** (7.72)** (4.86)** (7.20)** Distance (5.23)** (6.85)** (7.13)** (8.26)** (6.81)** (8.78)** (5.78)** (6.38)** (5.26)** (6.31)** Remoteness (1.51) (1.44) (1.62) (3.65)** (1.60) (4.09)** (1.65) (3.44)** (1.64) (4.12)** Landlock (0.09) (0.24) (0.66) (0.19) (0.32) (0.93) (0.56) (0.24) (0.15) (0.44) KLD (1.70) (1.75) (2.43)* (3.90)** (2.47)* (3.95)** FDI (1.45) (1.36) (2.61)** (3.53)** (1.39) (2.22)* (2.34)* (3.22)** (1.53) (2.27)* GNID (0.65) (1.04) (4.14)** (5.66)** (3.27)** (4.77)** Infrastructure (1.77) (1.74) (0.01) (2.21)* (0.13) (2.12)* Europe (1.00) (0.31) (0.10) (1.11) (0.74) East asia (1.32) (2.13)* (2.15)* (1.37) (1.43) Russia (0.66) (1.01) (1.09) (0.69) (0.58) Soviet (1.50) (1.20) (1.51) (1.50) (2.33)* NAFTA (0.59) (1.42) (1.50) (0.62) (0.58) CA (0.17) (0.42) (0.62) (0.14) 0.00 ASEAN (0.21) (0.55) (0.80) (0.21) (0.55) Constant (2.32)* (2.58)** (2.65)** (4.60)** (2.65)** (5.45)** (2.66)** (4.29)** (2.44)* (5.07)** R-squared Observations Number of ID Absolute value of z statistics in parentheses * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% 186
19 DISTANCE Coulibaly & Fontagné 2004 GDP EU ASEAN5 NAFTA 7 14 EU 187
20 EU EU Coulibaly & Fontagné Ando 2006 Arndt & Kierzkowski 2001 Jones & Kierzkowski 2001 Kimura & Ando
21 Coulibaly & Fontagné Diego 2009 OECD20 MFP multifactor productivity 8 9 Anderson & Wincoop 2003 Behar & Venables 2010 Coulibaly & Fontangné 2004 Kurmanalieva 2008 Limao & Venables Limao & Venables 2000 Shepherd & Wilson Ijiri 2005 Kimura & Lee 2006 Maeno Ijiri Chaney 2008 Chaney EU NAFTA ASEAN CCAS Working Paper Series No pp Amurgo-Pacheco, A. and M. Pierola (2007), Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins, HEI Working Paper No: 20/2007. Ando, M. (2006), Fragmentation and Vertical Intra- Industry Trade in East Asia, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 17(3), pp Anderson, J. and van, Wincoop, E. (2003), Gravity with Gravitas: A solution to the Border Puzzle, American Economic Review, 93(1), pp
22 Arndt, S. W., and H. Kierzkowski (2001), Fragmentation: New production patterns in the world economy, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Behar, A. and A. Venables (2010), Transport costs and International Trade, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Number 488. Chaney, T. (2008), Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade, American Economic Review, Vol. 98(4), pp Coulibaly, S. and L. Fontagné (2004), South-South Trade: Geography Matters, CEPII Working Papers, No Diego, A. S. (2009), Competition and Economic Growth: an Empirical Analysis for a Panel of 20 OECD countries, MPRA Paper No Felbermayr, G. and W. Kohler (2006), Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade, Review of World Economics, Vol. 142(4), pp Finger, J. M. & M. E. Kreinin (1979), A measure of export similarity and its possible use, The Economic Journal, Vol. 89, pp Iwata, Kato, Shibasaki (2010), Impact of International Transportation Infrastructure Development on a Landlocked Country: Case Study in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Proceedings of the 3 rd International Conference on Transportation and Logistics (T-LOG2010), CD-ROM, Fukuoka, Japan. Ijiri, N. (2005), Market Size, Trade Costs, and Remoteness: Gravity Evidence for Japanese Outward FDI, The Nihon University Economic Review, Vol. 74(4), pp Jones, R. W. and H. Kierzkowski (2001), Horizontal Aspects of Vertical Fragmentation, in L. Cheng and H. Kierzkowski (eds.), Global production and trade in East Asia, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Kimura, F. and M. Ando (2005), Two dimensional fragmentation in East Asia: Conceptual framework and empirics, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 14(3), pp Kurmanalieva, E. (2008), Empirical Analysis of Kyrgyz Trade Patterns, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 1(1), pp Lee, H. (1997), A Perspective on the Effects of NAFTA on Korea, in Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, eds. Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, the University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London. Limao, N. and A. Venables (1999), Infrastructure, Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs and Trade, World Bank Policy Working Paper Maeno, T. (2010), How Big is the Extensive Margin of Trade?: Evidence from Trade Data in Japan, The Nihon University Economic Review, Vol. 79(4), pp Shepherd & Wilson (2006), Road Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia: Does Network Quality Affect Trade?, World Bank Policy Working Paper
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