3 I 2016 1 6 4 4 4 2006 10 3 No-First-Use: NFU minimum deterrence 1 2 1 NFU 1964 10 2016 1 7 2006 10 4 1718 10 17 2006 10 18 1 1964 10 17
44 NFU Treaty on Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty: NPT NFU 1998 credible 1994 NFU 3 2 2001 02 03 1 3 NFU 1 2 2 counter-value counter-force Text of the Indian Nuclear Doctrine Prepared by National Security Advisory Board in August 1999, Gopal Singh and S.K. Sharma (eds.), Documents on India s Nuclear Disarmament Policy: Rajiv to Vajpayee, New Delhi: Anamika Publishes and Distributers, 2000, pp.1542-1547. see, V. N. Khanna, India s Nuclear Doctrine, New Delhi: Samskriti, 2000, p. 115. Jaswant Singh See, Clarifying India s Nascent Nuclear Doctrine: An Interview with Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh, Arms Control Today, Vol.29, No. 8 (December 1999). Press Release: Cabinet Committee of Security Reviews Progress in Operationalizing India s Nuclear Doctrine, 4th January, 2003 <http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2003/ rjan2003/04012003/r040120033.html>.
3 45 2 2 NFU 2 NFU NFU NFU NFU NFU NFU II 2013 NFU NFU 1 NFU 2 2009 5 25 NFU 2009 5 26
46 2011 12 17 3 2 4 2012 4 11 1 100 3 12 12 2087 2013 1 22 2013 2 12 3 2009 6 9 2012 3 3 2013 1 25 2013 1 26
3 47 2 2013 3 6 3 8 2094 26 1 3 31 2013 3 6 2 2013 3 9 2013 25 2014 70-72 2013 3 6 <http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-k.htm>. 2013 3 8 2013 3 7 2013 3 17 2013 3 27
48 2 4 2013 3 2013 4 1 2013 3 2013 4 1 2013 3 2013 3 31 2014 224 2013 4 2 5 NPT Negative Security Assurance: NSA 2010 4 6 Barack H. Obama Nuclear Posture Review: NPR 4 21 2013 254 NSA 2015 27 2016 86
3 49 NFU 1999 2 NFU 2 1 NFU NFU NPT NFU NFU 2 NFU 1995 Charles W. Freeman, Jr. 2005 7 2014 3 17
50 NFU 2 NFU NFU Danny Gittings, General Zhu Goes Ballistic, Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2005. See also, Chu Shulong and Rong Yu, China: Dynamic Minimum Deterrence, in Muthiah Alagappa, (ed.), The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2008, pp. 175-176; Jeffery G. Lewis, Paper Tigers: China s Nuclear Posture, London: International Institute of Security Studies, 2014, pp. 135-136. 1998 NFU 2013 NFU see, James M. Acton, Is China Changing Its Position on Nuclear Weapons? New York Times, April 18, 2013 2013 NFU See, M. Taylor Fravel, China Has Not (Yet) Changed Its Position on Nuclear Weapons: Has China Abandoned Its No First Use Policy When It Comes to Nuclear Weapons? No, Says MIT s M. Taylor Fravel, The Diplomat, April 22, 2013 <http://thediplomat.com/2013/04/ china-has-not-yet-changed-its-position-on-nuclear-weapons/>. NFU 2013 4 26 2015 NFU 2015 1987 3 20 NFU See, Rong Yu and Peng Guangquan, Nuclear No-First-Use Revisited, China Security, No. 5 (Winter 2009), p.89.
3 51 limited deterrence 2 NFU assured retaliation 2 Dong-feng: DF 21A 2 NFU NFU NFU 2012 4 5500 Agni V Alastair Iain, Johnston, China s New Old Thinking: The Concept of Limited Deterrence, International Security, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Winter 1995/1996), p. 58. See, M. Taylor Fravel and Evan S. Medeiros, China s Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4 (Spring 2006). 22 2011 3 30 2015 48-49 莼 苏 威慑与稳定 2005 212 See also, Baohui Zhang, The Taiwan Strait and the Future of China s No-First-Use Nuclear Policy, Comparative Strategy, Volume 27 Number 2 (2008), p. 168.
52 3 Defence Research and Development Organisation: DRDO Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile: SLBM V SLBM 2 NFU NFU NFU NFU NFU Dipanker Banerjee, Rukmani Gupta, Avinash Godbole, and Gunjan Singh, Building Mutual Confidence: The View from India, Lora Saalman (ed.), The China-India Nuclear Crossroads, Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012, p. 167. 10 2000 3 188
3 53 3 NFU NFU 1990 NFU 1994 7 9 Boris N. El tsin NFU 2001 7 NFU 2 NFU Leonid I. Brezhnev Intermediate Nuclear Forces: INF NFU North Atlantic Treaty Organization: NATO 697 2001 7 2 2 6 16 468 57 6 6
54 Warsaw Treaty Organization: WTO WTO NATO 1993 11 NFU 2000 2010 NATO NATO 2008 2010 2 2015 3 Vladimir V. Putin Pavel S. Grachev NFU Dunbar Lockwood, News and Negotiations: Russia Revises Nuclear Policy, Ends Soviet No-First-Use Pledge, Arms Control Today, Volume 23, Number10 (December 1993), p. 19. 679 2000 1 7 800 2010 2 144 938 2010 10 46 Nikolai P. Patrushev 2009 10 16 2 2016 3 173 See also, Volha Charnysh, Russian Nuclear Threshold Not Lowered, Arms Control Today, Volume 40, No. 3 (March 2010), pp. 38-40. See, Alexei G. Arbatov The Marshall European Center Papers, No.2; The Transformation of Russian Military Doctrine: Lessons Learned from Kosovo and Chechnya, Garmisch-Partenkirchen: The George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, 2000.
3 55 2016 4 Sergey V. Lavrov 15 NFU NFU NFU NFU 3 3-15 861 2015 3 15 罗 罗 2016 4 29
56 III 2016 1 2013 NFU 2016 1 6 1 10 NFU 4 4 2 7 4 3 7 75 3 2 2270 3 2016 2 24
3 57 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 6 3 1967 6 2016 3 4 3 3 2016 3 3 3 3 3 3 See, Jeannie L. Johnson, Kerry M. Kartchner, and Jeffrey A. Larsen (eds.), Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National Security Policymaking, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009. 2016 3 8 2016 3 8
58 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 墉 4 4 墉 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 11 4 4 4 NPT 2016 3 9 2016 3 12 墉 2016 3 30 2016 3 11
3 59 2016 3 2016 3 18 Inter-continental Ballistic Missile ICBM 2016 4 8SLBM 2016 4 23 4 2016 3 15
60 4,000 SLBM 2010 10 65 12 Transporter Erector Launcher: TEL 2013 3 2016 3 墉 3 IV 2013 2016 2006 NFU NFU NFU NFU
3 61 NFU NFU NFU NFU 2006 10 NFU 2016 5 7 NFU 4 4 2013 4 1 1 2016 3 NFU 7 2016 5 8 7 2016 5 9
62 2016 6 224 4 3 10 10 2016 6 23 10