* nakaza-t@hoffman.cc.sophia.ac.jp ** yutaka.soejima@boj.or.jp ()*** **** munehisa.kasuya@boj.or.jp No.03-J-7 2003 10 103-8660 30 * **()*******
* ** () *** **** 2003 10 (i) (ii) Keywords: government bonds, sustainability, long-run interest rate JEL Classification: H62, E43 * nakaza-t@hoffman.cc.sophia.ac.jp ** yutaka.soejima@boj.or.jp *** **** munehisa.kasuya@boj.or.jp 1
90 2003 450 686 2002 7.3 1 10 1 90 2 100 2 1 2001 6 90 2 [2001][2002] 2
10 90 91 3 3
90 Hayashi and Prescott[2002] 3 90 90 4 (Leeper[1991] Cochrane[1998] 5 4 5 [2002] 4
90 4 6 7 8 < > 5 6 6 2001 3 19 (2003) 7 8 98 99 [2000] 5
1999 2001 7 2001 9 8-1 10 9 2001 43 12 2002 34 11 10 8-21 2) 3) 80 90 90 6
90 9 11 70 80 1080 11 () 12 ( ) 11 7
12 13 13 14 15 90 (1998) 13 14 (2003) VAR 15 13- GLS 8
[2000] 14 9
16 10
90 Alesina and Perotti[1995,1996] OECD 17, 18 17 Buti et al. (2002) 18 11
1516 93 () 15-14 15-5 93 20 94 94 2001 19 Giavazzi and Pagano[1990], Alesina and Perotti[1996] 19 12
20 Cap pay-as-you-go 17 21 1960 1976 20 97 98 21 Von Hagen and Harden[1995], Poterba[1997] 13
[1976] 70 1981 22 70 1981 60 1.5 18 1987 23 19 24 80 20-2 25 80 22 [1995] 23 85 24 19 25 13 14
20 30 21 90 70 80 [2002] 15
16
(2002)90 63,. (2003) No. 03-J-4. (2003) 03-J-4. (1995) 14. (1976) 51. (2002). (2001),. (2000): 16,. (2001),. (2001). 98 99 19 2. (1998) 981,. (2002) 64,. Alesina, Alberto and Roberto Perotti(1995)Fiscal Expansions and Adjustment in OECD Countries, Economic Policy 21, pp207-248. Alesina, Alberto and Roberto Perotti(1996) Fiscal Adjustment in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects, NBER Working Paper #5730. Buti, Marco; von Hagen, Jurgen; Martinez-Mongay, Carlos (2002) The behaviour of fiscal authorities: Stabilization, growth and institutions, Houndmills, U.K. and New York: Palgrave. 17
Cochrane, John (1998)A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp323-384. Giavazzi, Francesco and Marco Pagano(1990) Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp75-111. Hayashi, Fumio and Edward Prescott(2002)The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade, Review of Economic Dynamics 5, pp206-223. Leeper, Eric (1991)Equilibria under Active and Passive Monetary and Fiscal Policies, Journal of Monetary Economics 27, pp129-147. Lipman, Barton L.(1995) Information Processing and Bounded Rationality: A Survey, Canadian Journal of Economics,. Vol. 28 (1), pp. 42-67. February. Pesaran, M Hashem (1987) The limits to rational expectationism, Oxford and New York: Blackwell. Poterba, James (1997 )Do Budget Rules Work?, in Auerbach, Alan J., ed., Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Economic Research, Cambridge and London: MIT Press, pp.53-86. Rubinstein, Ariel (1998) Modeling bounded rationality, Cambridge and London: MIT Press. Von Hagen and Harden(1995)Budget Process and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline, European Economic Review 39, pp771-779. 18
173 1969 2904 33 30 1981 1984 8284 2,800 8284 1,300 1985 GRH 1991 1993 1990 OBRA90 Cap pay-as-you-go 9195 5,000 1993 OBRA93 OBRA90 Cap, pay-as-you-go 1998 9398 5,000 1997 2002 Cap, pay-as-you-go 2002 982002 1,750 2002 4 98 (2001)