10 Sawada Yasuyuki 199798 twin crisis Kaminsky and Reinhart199919701980 1 19981 122 2001 20061998 1 197079 1 198095 1 26 2.6 50 3.13 1 0.10 18 1.13 25 2.50 32 2.00 3 0.30 23 1.44 Kaminsky and Reinhart1999, Table 1. No. 5632007 7 8 39
10 10 1 1GDP, 2000 5 1 GD 0 5 P 10 15 20 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 World Development Indicators, the World Bank. 180 2 20 160 140 120 100 0 0 80 60 40 20 0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 World Development Indicators, the World Bank. 2 % 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2.9 4.1 4.7 5.5 6.3 6.1 8.1 9.1 9.5 9.9 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.1 2 2.6 7 6.3 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 4.7 3.7 3 3.1 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.4 3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 8.1 9 8.6 8.9 8.4 8.4 7.4 7.9 9.6 9.2 10.1 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.9 2.2 2.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 3.4 3 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 World Development Indicators, the World Bank. No. 5632007 7 8 40
10 V 1 Ito2007 10 1 2003 pass through 2 199858.4% balance sheet channel 1 2 credit crunch 19971998146 2003 11997981 1IMF 2002 Frankenberg, Smith, and Thomas2003; Alem and Townsend2003; Townsend1999; Goh, Kang, and Sawada2005; Kang and Sawada2007a No. 5632007 7 8 41
10 3 1 % 19971998 1 23 9 34 35 37 Frankenberg, Smith, and Thomas2003, Table 1. 4 1 % 1997 1998 23 34 498 1 12 23 34 2.65 3.37 12.15 10.91 0.62 10.75 7.42 4.39 29.52 1.00 2.55 14.75 6.48 7.38 26.28 11.46 4.75 0.00 39.57 48.11 48.89 53.79 40.66 41.67 10.90 26.32 22.85 7.17 4.31 3.06 Kang and Sawada2005. Frankenberg, Smith, and Thomas2003 2 3199798 35%37% 9 Kang and Sawada20054500 Household Income and Expenditure SurveyHIES 19974 26%19981 4 2 Friedman and Levinsohn2002SUSENAS No. 5632007 7 8 42
10 3 1.5 1 0.5 0 10 11 12 13 19961 Friedman and Levinsohn2002, Figure 1. 13 Kang and Sawada2005Korean Household Panel Survey KHPSGoh, Kang and Sawada2005 Kang and Sawada2005 Goh, Kang, and Sawada2005 Alem and Townsend2003 3 Friedman and Levinsohn2005 No. 5632007 7 8 43
10 3 Kang and Sawada2007aKHPS Kang and Sawada2007a 199897 30% Kang and Sawada2007a1998 Frankenberg, Smith, and Thomas2003 Frankenberg, Smith, and Thomas2003 15 Fallon and Lucas2002 1997984.0% 3.5%13.3% 2003 Kang and No. 5632007 7 8 44
10 Sawada2005 7% Kang and Sawada2005; 2007b 4 10 11999 V 1997 98 11.6%10.4% Burton and Zanello200710 5 Kang and Kwon2006 4 1 GDP 11GDPV Kakwani1993 3 1GDP1% % No. 5632007 7 8 45
10 5 % 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1981 21.64 55.03 1984 1.96 1985 20.70 23.5 62.01 1987 28.15 75.84 1.20 1988 24.9 57.02 17.86 54.06 1989 0.93 1990 17.10 1991 24.6 55.48 1992 0.43 6.02 37.48 1993 17.39 64.19 1994 17.5 52.72 1995 0.90 8.90 1996 14.12 59.73 2.21 28.28 1997 0.14 16.6 43.92 1998 26.33 75.95 0.00 28.17 1999 7.58 55.16 2.03 31.61 2000 7.19 55.39 5.50 18.1 44.92 1.96 32.51 2001 2002 7.78 52.89 0.89 25.81 2003 13.49 43.87 2004 11119852000Sawada and Estudillo2005a; 2005bOECF1997, PovcalNet, World Bankhttp://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/jsp/index.jsp 30.00 4 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 1982 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 Kang and Kwon2006. No. 5632007 7 8 46
10 5 19905%4% 4 Dollar and Kraay2002 pro-poor growth Fallon and Lucas 2002199798 No. 5632007 7 8 47
10 World Bank2000; 2003; 2003 3 Friedman and Levinsohn 2002 1 Krugman1999 2 NN N 3 Kakwani1993 4 trickle-down 2003 2006No. 12420061 4 7 2003 2002 2003 Alem, Mauro and Robert M. Townsend2003 An Evaluation of Safety Nets and Financial Instituions in Crisis and Growth, mimeographed, University of Chicago. Burton, David and Alessandro Zanello2007 Asia Ten Years After, Finance & Development, June 2007, pp. 22 25. Dollar, David and Aart Kraay2002 Growth is Good for the Poor, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 195 225. No. 5632007 7 8 48
10 Fallon, Peter R. and Robert E. B. Lucas2002 The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Market, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence, World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 21 45. Frankenberg, Elizabeth, James P. Smith, and Duncan Thomas2003 Economic Shocks, Wealth, and Welfare, Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 280 321. Friedman, Jed and James Levinsohn2002 The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia s Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A Rapid Reponse Methodology, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 397 423. Goh, Chor-ching, Sung Jin Kang, and Yasuyuki Sawada2005 How Did Korean Households Cope with Negative Shocks from the Financial Crisis? Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 16, No. 2,April 2005, pp. 239 254. Ito, Takatoshi2007 Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview, Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 16 49. Kakwani, Nanak1993 Poverty and Economic Growth with Application to Côte D Ivoire, Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 121 139. Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Carmen M. Reinhart1999 The Twin Crisis: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of- Payments Problems, American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 3, pp. 473 500. Kang, Sung Jin and Hyun-Jin Kwon2006 The Equivalence Scale and Poverty Evaluation of the Korean Urban Households, Kyong Je Hak Yon Gu, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 61 97in Korean. Kang, Sung Jin and Yasuyuki Sawada2007a A Credit Crunch and Household Welfare in Korea, Japanese Economic Review, forthcoming. Kang, Sung Jin and Yasuyuki Sawada2007b Did Public Transfers Crowd Out Private Transfers in Korea During the Financial Crisis? Journal of Development Studies, forthcoming. Kang, Sung Jin and Yasuyuki Sawada2005 Consumption Behavior of Korean Households During the Financial Crisis of 1997 98, paper presented at Singapore Economic Review Conference 2005 on August 4, 2005, Singapore. Kang, Sung Jin and Yasuyuki Sawada2003 Are Private Transfers Altruistically Motivated? The Case of the Republic of Korea before and during the Financial Crisis, Developing Economies, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 484 501. Krugman, Paul1999 Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises, International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 459 472. OECF1997 Rural Development Administration for Poverty Eradication in Malaysia: Focusing on Coordination Mechanisms, OECF Research Papers, No. 17, Research Institute of Development AssistanceRIDA, The Overseas Economic Cooperation FundOECF. Sawada, Yasuyuki and Jonna P. Estudillo2005a Trade, Migration, and Poverty Reduction in the Globalizing Economy: the Case of the Philippines, paper presented at the UNU-WIDER Conference on the Impact of Globalization on the Poor in Asia, 25 26 August 2005, Tokyo, Japan. Sawada, Yasuyuki and Jonna P. Estudillo2005b MDGs and Exit time: the Case of the Philippines, CIRJE Discussion Paper, F-356, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, Japan. Townsend, Robert M.1999 Removing Financial Bottlenecks to Labor Productivity in Thailand, in W. C. Hunter, G. G. Kaufman, and T. H. Krueger, eds., the Asian Fiancial Crisis: Origins, Implications, and Solutions, Klewer Academic Publishers. World Bank2000East Asia: Recovery and Beyond, World Bank. sawada@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp No. 5632007 7 8 49