ＩＴ革命とは？

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1 2001 N 8 Ž

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9 1 1 (%) 4 ITv½ 3 YÆv½ 2 1 MŠX A ŠJ nick Harley Reassessing the Industrial Revolution: a Macro View in Joel Mokyr(ed.) The British Industrial Revolution 2 nd Ed. Oliner and Sichel The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story? IT 3 1 IT 2-5-

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10 i j 3 MŠX A ŠJ ITv½ YÆv½ Svf Y«Ìñ^x {~Ï Ìñ^x Joel Mokyr, Editor s Introduction: The New Economic History and the Industrial Revolution in The British Industial Revolution 2 nd Ed. Oliner and Sichel, The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story? -6-

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42 IT IT IT 53 IT IT 54 IT 53 Acceleration of Economic Progress Youngson, A.J., Possibilities of Economic Progress, ambridge Univ. Press.,

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44 Antràs, Pol, Productivity Growth During the English Industrial Revolution: A Dual Aroach, Baskin, Jonathan Barron and Paul J. Miranti, Jr., A History of ororate Finance, ambridge University Press, Basu, Susanto and John Fernald, Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We are?, Federal Reserve Bank of hicago, Basu, Susanto, et al., Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?, NBER Working Paer 8359, Brynjolfsson, Erik and Brian ahin (ed.), Understanding the Digital Economy, MIT Press, Burbeck, Steve, What is all this fuss about P2P, TIMIA onference, arlsson, Bo (ed.), Technological Systems and Economic Performance: The ase of Factory Automation, luwer Academic Publishers, iccone, Antonio, Falling Real Wages During an Industrial Revolution, 1996 lark, Gregory, The Industrial Revolution, lass notes at U Davis, ommittee on Innovations in omuting and ommunications, Funding a Revolution : Government Suort for omuting Research, National Academy Press; rafts, Nicholas, The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Persective, London School of Economics, David, Paul and Gavin Wright, Early Twentieth entury Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of Our Ignorance, Discussion Paers in Economic and Social History at University of Oxford, David, Paul and Gavin Wright, General Purose Technologies and Surges in Productivity: Historical Reflections on the Future of the IT Revolution, Discussion Paers in Economic and Social History at University of Oxford, David, Paul, Understanding Digital Technology s Evolution and the Path of Measured Productivity Growth: Present and Future in the Mirror of the Past, Dodgson, Mark, et al., The Intensification of Innovation, SPRU, Dosi, Giovanni, et al. (ed.), Technical hange and Economic Theory, Printer Publishers, Elzinga, enneth, P SOFTWARE, Encaoua, David, et, al. (ed.), The Economics and Econometrics of Innovation, luwer Academic Publishers,

45 Freeman, hris and Luc Soete, The Economics of Industrial Innovation, ontinuum, Freeman, hris and Francisco Louçã, As Time Goes By, Oxford University Press, Freeman, hris, A Hard Landing for the New Economy? Information Technology and the United States National System of Innovation, SPRU, Gordon, Robert, Does the New Economy Measure u to the Great Inventions of the Past?, Gordon, Robert, Interreting the One Big Wave in U.S. Long-term Productivity Growth, Gordon, Robert, Exlaining the U.S. Economic Miracle, Presented at OED Jobs onference, Gordon, Robert, Technology and Economic Performance in the American Economy, Granstrand, Ove (ed.), Economics of Technology, North-Holland, Grossman, Gene and Elhanan Helman, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, The MIT Press, Helman, Elhanan (ed.), General Purose Technologies and Economic Growth, The MIT Press, Hobart, Michael and Zachary Schiffman, Information Ages, Johns Hokins University Press, Holdway, Michael Quality-Adjusting omuter Prices in the Producer Price Index: An Overview, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jorgenson, Dale and evin Stiroh, Raising the Seed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age, OED Economics Deartment Working Paers No.261, ing, Steven and Geoffrey Timmins, Making Sense of the Industrial Revolution, Manchester University Press, lundert, Theo, Growth Theory in Historical Persective, Edward Elgar, Landefeld, Steven and Bruce Grimm, A Note on the Imact of Hedonics and omuters on Real GDP, Survey of urrent Business, December Landes, David, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, W. W. Norton & omany, Longstreet onsulting Inc., osts and Estimating for Software Projects Incre asing Marginal osts, 2001, (htt:// matingdata.htm). Mokyr, Joel (ed.), The British Industrial Revolution, Westview Press, More, harles, Understanding the Industrial Revolution, Routledge, Nadiri, Ishaq and Ingmar Prucha, Dynamic Factor Demand Models and Productivity Analysis,

46 Nordhaus, William, New Data and Outut oncets for Understanding Productivity Trends, Nordhaus, William, Productivity Growth and the New Economy, North, Douglass and Robert Paul Thomas, The Rise of the Western World, ambridge University Press, Nuvolari, Alessandro, The Machine Breakers and the Industrial Revolution, Ecis Oliner, Stehen and Daniel Sichel, The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s:Is Information Technology the Story?, Pohjola, Matti (ed.), Information Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, Oxford University Press, Roberts, John, Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques, Ruttan, Vernon, Technology, Growth, and Develoment, Oxford University Press, Sanghoon Ahn, Technology Ugrading with Learning ost: A Solution for Two Productivity Puzzles, OED Economics Deartment Working Paers No.220, Schreyer, Paul, The ontribution of Information and ommunication Technology to Outut Growth: A Study of the G7 ountries, OED STI Working Paer, Shy, Oz, The Economics of Network Industries, ambridge University Press, Sinclair, James and Brian atron, An exerimental rice index for the comuter industry, Monthly Labor Review, October Soto, Hernando de, The Mystery of aital, Basic Books, Stiroh, evin, What Drives Productivity Growth?, FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March Stiroh, evin, Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Stay?, Temin, Peter, Two Views of the British Industrial Revolution, NBER Historical Paer 81, Whelan, arl, omuters, Obsolescence, and Productivity,

47 A IT IT Y = F(, AL). (1) Y L A L & = 0 A & / A = x = const F( λ, λl) = λf(, L). (2) (1) AL 1 k / AL y Y / AL = F( / AL,1) f ( k). (3) r w δ P P = F(, AL) ( r + δ ) wl (4) r w -43-

48 P F(, AL) = ( r + δ ) = 0. (5) F(, AL) = AL F( / AL,1) AL k = f ( k) (6) 1 k α ( r + δ ) Y f k) = r + δ ( (7) f ' ( k) = = ALf ( k) f ' ( k) k f ( k) α (8) TFP γ TFP Y& & L& f ' ( k) k α (1 α) = x 1 Y L f ( k) γ (9) Y Γ (9) x & f ' ( k) k f ' ( k) Γ α = x + k& (10) f ( k) f ( k) γ TFP 1 f ' ( k) Γ = γ TFP + k&. (11) f ( k) 1 f ( k) f ' ( k) k k & = 0 (7) r = const k = const (11) 2 - k Γ γ TFP γ TFP Γ γ TFP. (12) - 0 γ TFP -44-

49 Γ 0 x x + x s & (13) = sf(, AL) δ A & (13) & (14) k = sf ( k) ( x + δ ) k & (15) k = k x (10) f ' ( k) k = ( x + x) f ( k) f ' ( k) k x f ( k) = f ' ( k) k x. f ( k) Γ (16) f '( k) k TFP = x 1 f ( k) γ (17) IES U U (1 θ ) 1 e 1 θ 0 ρt dt (18) -45-

50 & 1 = ( r ρ) θ (19) Y = F, AL) = & + δ + ( (20) 1 c = / AL s & (21) f ( k) = k + ( x + δ ) k + c. c k k& s = 1 = ( x + δ ) (22) f ( k) f ( k) f ( k) (7) (19) s k ( x + δ ) f ( k) = (23) & / = x f k) = θ x + δ + ρ ( (24) (24) k k * ( x ) k * ( x ) x x s * ( x ) * * * * 1 f ( k ( x)) k ( x) ρ + (1 θ ) δ k ( x) s ( x) * * θ f ( k ( x)) θ f ( k ( x)) = (25) θ x s * γ TFP s θ ρ -46-

51 + & = F (, AL ) δ ( + ), & (26) L = F, L ), (27) L ( + L = const, = (28) & 1 = ( r ρ θ & ), (29) F F = r + δ, = r + δ, (30) (31) F L = F L = w, w. (32) (33) (28) (29) (31) (33) (29) IES(18) (19) k / AL 1 k / L (26) (30) (33) -47-

52 xk l& k 1 + l + k& = f + l A k& l& + k A(1 + l) ( k ) δ ( k + l A k ), (34) A '( k ) = r + δ, f (35) ' ( k ) = r + δ, f (36) { f ( k ) k f ' ( k )} w, (37) = { f ( k ) k f ' ( k )} w. (38) = l L / L - (29) r = const (35) k = const (35) (38) α = k f ' ( k ) / f ( k ) = k α (1 α ) k α (1 α ) A = (39) const α = k f ' ( k ) / f ( k ) = const k & = xk (40) (40) (34) α (1 α ) 1 l& = α (1 α ) f ( k (1 + l) k ) α (1 α ) δ x ( x + δ ) l α (1 α ) (41) {} 0 l l & = 0-48-

53 & γ (42) = & = x, γ (43) x, γ, & = xα (44) γ & = x( 1 α ). (45) s s d / dt γ (46) = F (, AL ) F (, AL ) + x. const. = (47) (29) xk l& k 1+ l + k& = f A + Bl k& A '( k Bl& + k A(1 + l) ) = r + δ, ( k + ybl A ) δ ( k k + Bl A k ), (48) f (49) ' ( k ) = r + δ, f (50) { f ( k ) k f ' ( k )} w, (51) = -49-

54 B B / B = y = const { f ( k ) k f ' ( k )} w. (52) = & k / BL (49) (52) k α (1 α ) k α (1 α ) A, B = (53) & (54) k = ( x y) k (48) α (1 ) α 1 l& = α (1 α ) f (1 + l) ( k k ) α (1 ) α δ x ( x + δ ) l. α (1 α ) (55) & γ (56) = & = x, γ (57) x, γ & = xα + ( 1 α ) y, (58) γ & = ( x y)(1 α ), (59) d / dt γ (60) = F, AL ) I ( x. -50-

55 = (61) + I I Y, L Y, L 0 0 (62) I I 0 0 Y, P Y, P I I (63) Y Y Y + d Y Y ( = + d ) + ( + d + I ) I, (64) Y + Y I. (65) Y Y & Y & I& (1 s) + s. I s I + I ) = (66) = const /( (66) Y Y γ Y & = xα + ( 1 α ) y + s{ ( x y)(1 α )}. (67) Y -51-

56 -52- (64) Y Y d s d s d + = ) 1 ( (68) s s Y ) 1 ( = (69) TFP, γ TFP, γ TFP γ, ) (1 ) (, y r TFP α α δ γ = = + & & & & (70), ) (1 ) (, x I I I r I I TFP α α δ γ = = + & & & & (71). ) (1 ) )(1 (1 ) (1 ) ( ) (,, x s y s s s Y r Y Y TFP TFP Y TFP α α γ γ δ γ + = + = & & & (72) = γ ~ TFP, ~γ, / ~ x dt d γ + γ = (73), ) (1 ) ( ~ ~, TFP x r γ α δ γ γ + = + & (74). & γ (75)

57 γ & 0 = γ (76) = γ + γ = 0 γ γ = x y)(1 α ), ( = (77) ~ γ TFP, (1 α ) y = (78) γ & = 0 TFP Y (1 s ) Y = = 0 (79) γ ( 1 s) γ = (1 s)( x y)(1 α ), = (80) ~ γ (81) TFP, = γ + s(1 α )( x y) TFP y = 0 TFP = 0 ~ γ = s(1 x TFP, α ) G S y y G G S & = γ TFP S γ, (1 α ) x, γ (1 α = (82) ) y TFP, G G G, = (83) ~ γ TFP S (1 α S ) x + γ,. = (84) 0 G -53-

58 & G G d G = dt & + = ( x yg )(1 αg ) + γ G = 0 (85) γ )(1 α ) ( x y G G = (86) ~ γ TFP, S ( αg α S ) + (1 αg x ) y = (87) S y & G = 0 S G (87) IES U S G U 0 ρt u( G, S) e dt (88) G S 2 u G & 2 G G& G r = + ρ, (89) u G G G 2 u S & 2 S S& S r = + ρ. (90) u S S S -54-

59 γ G 2 u G 2 G γ u G G = γ S 2 u S 2 S γ u S S (91) γ γ G γ γ S (91) G S -55-

60 B IT IT 4 B.1 4 B.1 4 IT IT B.1IT 2 IT 2 2IT -56-

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63 2 IT IT IT IT 2 LAN AT&T (2001) -59-

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66 IT IT 59 Longstreet onsulting Inc.(2001) 60 A -62-

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68 A F(,, S, L) F( λ, λ, λs, λl) = λf(,, S, L), S = n i= 1 S f ( Si ) i i f f ( 0) = 1 f ( ) = 0. S i 64 L f L A A 65 Basu(2001) -64-

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