DP

KEIO UNIVERSITY MARKET QUALITY RESEARCH PROJECT (A 21 st Century Center of Excellence Project) DP2004-13 * ** * ** Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Business and Commerce, Keio University 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan

2004 11 26 1 21 COE 1 KHPS,.. 1

80 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 1 1 Montgomery and Trussell[5]Weiss[6] 2

Keeley[4] Wilson[7] Wood[8] marriageable 2 Wilson Ahn and Mira[1] Wilson 3 Charles and Stephens[3] 2 Wilson Borooah[2] 3 3

[11] [12] [18] 4

4 [15] [14] [16] 25 3 21 COE 1 16 31 2069 4 [17] 5

4000 5 6 1 2 18 19 20 7 1 1 80 90 1 2 5 [10] 6 1 2 31950 53 7 1534 1 2 6

4 3 8 4 1 4 8 1991 1998 5 1 5 7

26.3% 33.2% 1 9 1 5 Wooldridge[9] t P (t T<t+ h T t, x) λ(t; x) = lim = f(t x) h 0 h 1 F (t x) = f(t x) S(t x). S(t x) f(t x) F (t x) T 9 8

λ(t; x) = exp(xβ)λ 0 λ 0 log λ(t; x) =xβ + log λ 0 (t) β x x β 6 5 1991 1992 2 2 30 1992 6 1991 1992 1992 9

10 11 7 90 20 30 10 2 1 11 10

[13] [1] Ahn, N. and P., Mira (2001) Job Bust, Baby Bust?: Evidence from Spain Journal of Population Economics 14(3): 505-521 [2] Borooah, V. (2002) Does Unemployment Make Men Less Marriageable? Applied Economics 34(12): 1571-82 [3] Charles, K. and M. Stephens Jr. (2004) Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce Journal of Labor Economics 22(2): 489-522 [4] Keeley, M. (1977) The Economics of Family Formation Economic Inquiry 15(2): 238-250 [5] Montgomery, M. and J. Trussell (1986) Models of Marital Status and Childbearing In Handbook of Labor Economics, ed. O. Ashenfelter and R. Layard, 1: 205-271. New York: Elsevier Science [6] Weiss, Y. (1997) The Formation and Dissolution of Families: Why Marry? Who Marries Whom? And What Happens Upon Divorce? In Handbook of Population and Family Economics, ed. M. Rosenzweig and O. Stark, 1A: 81-123 New York: Elsevier Science 11

[7] Wilson, W. (1987) The Truly Disadvantaged Chicago: University of Chicago Press ( J 1999 ) [8] Wood, R. (1995) Marriage Rates and Marriageable Men: A Test of the Wilson Hypothesis The Journal of Human Resources 30(1): 163-193 [9] Wooldridge, J. (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data Cambridge: MIT Press [10] = 2005 2004 [11] 2001 [12] 2002 [13] 2005 [14] 2000 2000 [15] 1999 [16] 2004 [17] 2002 (Sinfonica) [18] 1999 12

90 58 37 130 315 14.2 11.2 10.8 25.2 15.7 545 461 306 385 1697 85.8 88.8 89.2 74.8 84.3 45 30 19 52 146 14.8 12.4 10.3 21.8 15.1 259 212 165 187 823 85.2 87.6 89.7 78.2 84.9 45 28 18 78 169 13.6 10.1 11.3 28.3 16.2 286 249 141 198 874 86.4 89.9 88.7 71.7 83.8 160 58 76 21 315 15.1 16.8 15.2 19.8 15.7 901 288 423 85 1697 84.9 83.2 84.8 80.2 84.3 77 10 48 11 146 15.2 14.3 13.4 34.4 15.1 431 60 311 21 823 84.8 85.7 86.6 65.6 84.9 83 48 28 10 169 15.0 17.4 20.0 13.5 16.2 470 228 112 64 874 85.0 82.6 80.0 86.5 83.8 13

146 36.6 9.5 415.1 298.3 114 77 52.7 823 38.5 8.3 515.9 262.3 698 597 72.5 169 35.1 9.6 191.6 149.0 97 86 50.9 874 37.9 8.2 197.9 160.5 511 659 75.4 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. 0.772 0.172 *** -1.584 0.086 *** -0.020 0.009 ** 0.002 0.005 0.534 0.232 ** 0.198 0.090 ** -0.201 0.255 0.007 0.104 0.835 0.304 *** 0.123 0.151-757.621 256-5549.830 1662 14

Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. -0.263 0.090 *** -0.332 0.141 ** 0.347 0.126 *** -0.259 0.188 0.123 0.039 *** -0.036 0.084-0.001 0.000 *** 0.001 0.001 0.014 0.072 0.143 0.114 0.183 0.067 *** 0.372 0.154 ** 0.155 0.109 0.057 0.189 0.067 0.149 0.179 0.206 0.045 0.208 0.409 0.309 0.134 0.313 0.578 0.395 # 3.036 1.181 *** 5.682 1.787 *** -0.224 0.156-0.225 0.122 ** 0.339 0.138 ** -0.504 0.121 *** 0.093 0.085 0.093 0.077-0.001 0.001-0.001 0.001 0.001 0.220-0.061 0.103-0.160 0.131-0.026 0.145-0.130 0.291 0.292 0.176 * 0.424 0.227 * -0.135 0.190 0.601 0.319 * -0.282 0.273 1.022 0.444 ** 0.001 0.367-0.091 0.158-0.321 0.131 ** -0.025 0.137-0.207 0.113 * 0.084 0.077-0.230 0.060 *** -1.873 1.788-0.839 1.603 0.078 0.753-1.131 0.391 *** 897 961 15

Coef. Std. Err. -0.390 0.116 *** -0.265 0.060 *** 0.045 0.167-0.052 0.066-0.100 0.078-0.201 0.088 ** -0.064 0.076-0.267 0.069 *** -0.075 0.125-9799.327 2012 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. -0.231 0.128 * -1.050 0.400 *** 0.136 0.168 0.235 0.371-0.128 0.090-0.864 0.268 *** -0.223 0.257-0.635 0.618 0.047 0.088-0.081 0.170-3534.828-378.413 730 239 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. -0.308 0.134 ** -0.519 0.235 ** -0.138 0.097-0.187 0.226-0.213 0.135-0.738 0.284 *** 0.009 0.168-0.401 0.325-0.136 0.073 * -0.304 0.169 * -3802.387-575.262 767 276 16

Coef. Std. Err. -0.349 0.123 *** -0.247 0.064 *** 0.066 0.178-0.114 0.068 * -0.151 0.083 * -0.188 0.102 * -0.059 0.080-0.319 0.075 *** -0.035 0.131-8630.081 1972 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. -0.203 0.134 # -0.975 0.527 * 0.033 0.177-0.065 0.440-0.175 0.097 * -1.292 0.356 *** -0.187 0.266-0.578 0.641-0.155 0.092 * -0.343 0.247-3197.114-232.143 715 236 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. -0.330 0.140 ** -0.386 0.262 # -0.078 0.100-0.293 0.257-0.168 0.140-1.115 0.351 *** 0.063 0.175-0.560 0.363 # -0.125 0.076 * -0.167 0.208-3516.384 751-423.506 270 17

Coef. Std. Err. -0.271 0.145 * -0.077 0.105-0.131 0.138-0.202 0.190 0.041 0.105-0.358 0.156 ** -0.224 0.199-3120.474 1021 Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. -0.286 0.156 * -0.264 0.387 0.067 0.109-0.545 0.387-0.229 0.162-1.564 0.581 *** -0.087 0.204-1.811 0.774 ** -0.080 0.084-0.089 0.404-2833.694 751-167.522 270 18

19

20

t t-5 33 6 12 60 66 56 233 14.2 2.6 5.2 25.8 28.3 24.0 100.0 792 2 79 926 40 100 1,939 40.8 0.1 4.1 47.8 2.1 5.2 100.0 825 8 91 986 106 156 2,172 t t-5 10 50 129 70 203 175 637 1.6 7.8 20.3 11.0 31.9 27.5 100.0 166 89 390 571 107 99 1,422 11.7 6.3 27.4 40.2 7.5 7.0 100.0 176 139 519 641 310 274 2,059 t t-5 14 1 11 40 44 19 129 10.9 0.8 8.5 31.0 34.1 14.7 100.0 280 2 46 312 22 37 699 40.1 0.3 6.6 44.6 3.1 5.3 100.0 294 3 57 352 66 56 828 t t-5 16 1 1 13 14 19 64 25.0 1.6 1.6 20.3 21.9 29.7 100.0 370 0 26 378 12 34 820 45.1 0.0 3.2 46.1 1.5 4.1 100.0 386 1 27 391 26 53 884 t t-5 3 4 0 7 8 18 40 7.5 10.0 0.0 17.5 20.0 45.0 100.0 142 0 7 236 6 29 420 33.8 0.0 1.7 56.2 1.4 6.9 100.0 145 4 7 243 14 47 460 21

t t-5 5 20 53 26 76 60 240 2.1 8.3 22.1 10.8 31.7 25.0 100.0 99 57 234 297 56 40 783 12.6 7.3 29.9 37.9 7.2 5.1 100.0 104 77 287 323 132 100 1,023 t t-5 3 26 57 18 63 59 226 1.3 11.5 25.2 8.0 27.9 26.1 100.0 56 28 130 174 29 43 460 12.2 6.1 28.3 37.8 6.3 9.3 100.0 59 54 187 192 92 102 686 t t-5 2 4 19 26 64 56 171 1.2 2.3 11.1 15.2 37.4 32.7 100.0 11 4 26 100 22 16 179 6.1 2.2 14.5 55.9 12.3 8.9 100.0 13 8 45 126 86 72 350 t-5 t 22