RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-034
RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-034 M&A の経済分析 :M&A はなぜ増加したのか 蟻川靖浩 宮島英昭 ( 早稲田大学 RIETI) 2006 年 4 月 要旨 1990 年代以降の M&A の急増の主要な要因は 産業や企業の成長性や収益性へのショックである とりわけ M&A を活発に行っている産業あるいは企業の特性としては 成長機会が豊富で収益性も高く 負債比率が低い その意味で 1990 年代以降の M&A は 成長機会の豊富な企業や産業が その成長機会を実現する手段として用いてきたということもできる 本稿は RIETI コ - ポレ - ト ガバナンスプロジェクトの一環として作成された 本稿 作成あたっては 吉岡念人氏の協力を得た 感謝申し上げる
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
References Andrade, G., and E. Stafford (2004), Investigating the Economic Role of Mergers, Journal of Corporate Finance, 10, pp.1-36. Clark, R. and C. Ioannidis (1996), On the Relation between Aggregate Merger Activity and the Stock Market: Some Further Empirical Evidence, Economics Letters, 53, pp.349-356. Golbe, D. and L. J. White (1988), A Time-Series Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions in the U.S. Economy, Auerbach, A. J. (eds.), Corporate Takeovers: Cause and Consequences, University of Chicago Press. Harford, J. (2005), What Drives Merger Waves? Journal of Financial Economics,77, pp.529-560. Healy, P., K. Palepu and R. Ruback (1992), Does Corporate Performance ImproveAfter Mergers? Journal of Financial Economics, 31, pp.135-175. Jensen, M C. (1993), The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure ofinternal Control Systems, Journal of Finance, 48, pp.831-880. Jovanovic, B. and P. L. Rousseau (2002), The Q-Theory of Mergers, American Economic Review, 92, pp.198-204. Kaplan, S. (2000), Introduction, Kaplan, S. (eds.), Mergers and Productivity, University of Chicago Press. Mitchell, M. L. and J. H. Mulherin (1996), The Impact of Industrial Shocks on Takeover and Restructuring Activity, Journal of Financial Economics, 41,pp.193-229. Rhodes-Kropf, M. and S. Viswanathan (2004), Market Valuation and Merger Waves, Journal of Finance, 59, pp. 2685-2718. 18
Shleifer, A. and R. W. Vishny (1992), Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity, Journal of Finance, 47, pp.1243-1366. Shleifer, A. and R. W. Vishny (2003), Stock Market Driven Acquisitions, Journal of Financial Economics, 70, pp.295-489. (2001) 2004 M&A 19
IN-IN IN-OUT OUT-IN OUT-OUT Total (%) (%) (%) (%) 1985 161 61.9 77 29.6 21 8.1 1 0.4 260 1986 223 53.3 178 42.6 14 3.3 3 0.7 418 1987 207 54.2 156 40.8 17 4.5 2 0.5 382 1988 218 41.7 285 54.5 14 2.7 6 1.1 523 1989 246 38.1 380 58.9 11 1.7 8 1.2 645 1990 268 35.5 459 60.9 19 2.5 8 1.1 754 1991 310 48.6 292 45.8 18 2.8 18 2.8 638 1992 254 52.6 179 37.1 29 6 21 4.3 483 1993 236 59.4 108 27.2 24 6 29 7.3 397 1994 250 49.5 187 37 33 6.5 35 6.9 505 1995 255 48 208 39.2 33 6.2 35 6.6 531 1996 321 51.7 226 36.4 31 5 43 6.9 621 1997 454 60.3 215 28.6 51 6.8 33 4.4 753 1998 488 58.5 213 25.5 85 10.2 48 5.8 834 1999 718 61.4 248 21.2 129 11 74 6.3 1169 2000 1066 65.2 361 22.1 175 10.7 33 2 1635 2001 1190 72 282 17.1 158 9.6 23 1.4 1653 2002 1354 77.3 258 14.7 129 7.4 11 0.6 1752 2003 1352 78.2 211 12.2 158 9.1 7 0.4 1728 2004 1677 75.8 318 14.4 207 9.4 9 0.4 2211 IN-IN: IN-OUT: OUT-IN: OUT-OUT:
Model 1 2 3 OLS q * *** *** * ** ER *** *** ** *** *** (ER) *** *** *** *** ROA *** ** Econshock1 ** ** ** *** Econshock2 * spread * * *** *** const *** *** ** *** Year Dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Log Likelihood N
Econshock2
Model 1 2 q *** * *** * *** Lq *** *** *** *** H q ** *** * * *** *** *** *** ** ** Econshock2 const *** *** *** *** *** *** Year Dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Log Likelihood N