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1 JEL C51, E12, E32, E62, O42, O Borio (2012a), Galbraih (1994) GDP GDP Eggerson man (2012) and Krug 1

2 1 GDP

3 Borio (2012b) Borio (2012b) Galbraih (1994) Samuelson (1939) 3

4 GDP Borio (2012b) 19 Borio (2012a), Galbraih (1994), Kindleberger (2000) Drehmann, Borio, and Tsasaronis (2012) 3 Hodrick- Presco 4

5 Drehmann, Borio, and Tsasaronis (2012) Drehmann, Borio, and Tsasaronis (2012) Reinhar and Rogoff (2008)

6 Reinhar and Rogoff (2008)

7 1870 Reinhar and Rogoff (2008) 5 GDP 5 Michell (1988) 3 Samuelson Y, G, C, I G 7

8 Y = G + C + I C a = Y-1 I = b ( C - C- 1) = ab ( Y -1 - Y -2 ) G = G 0 Y 2 Y = G + 0 a ( 1 + b ) Y - -1 aby -2 4b G0 Y a < 2 (1 + b ) 1-a (1) (2) 1 1-a 4b b 1 a 2 (1 + b ) Hicks (1950) I G Hicks (1950) 8

9 q Clark (1979) Tinbergen (1938) 4 q Akerlof and Shiller (2009) Borio (2012b) 9

10 Akerlof and Shiller (2009) 6 32 GDP GDP 1974 GDP 3 (2) Keynes (1936) GDP GDP GDP GDP 3 10

11 6 GDP y = x 0.94 OECD 30 7 GDP GDP

12 8 GDP 1954 GDP 3 5 GDP Y, G, C, I, P, D, W, K GDP G 93SNA

13 GDP C, G GDP G (1) Y = G + C + I (2) C a W + b = (3) g P + dp + ed + m I = -1 (4) W = AY (5) P + D = BY (6) K+1 = K + I - D (7) D = rk. A B 9 8 A B A B

14 9 A, B 6 5.A. (3) 3 (2) (3) 1 14

15 1 1 C I W P D GDP 15

16 s * K I * - D = ( K - K ) + m (3) (7) * g d r(1 - e ) sk = P -1 + P, s =, = r( 1- e ) g + d g + d g + d I G0 + b = 1 -aa0 -, Y Y C Y b a A + Y = 0 (1) (2) (4) GDP GDP 5.B. G = G0, A = A0, B = B0 G 0, A 0, B0 Y 2 (8) ly my ny = r {( 1+ g + d - e )( G0 + b ) + m} l = 1-aA - db, 0 ( -aa 0 ){ r( 1+ d - e )-1} - B { g - d ( - r) } m = 1, 1 0 { r( -aa 0 ) + B ( r) } n = g m 2 2p m l - 4ln < 0 cosq = - q 2l n 16

17 n 0 g 0 (1) (2) (4) (5) (6) 1-aA0 1-aA0 - B0 K K = P + D - G0 - b B0 B0 5.C. * Y Y 5 B Y * = 1-aA 0 1 m G + b + B0 Ł g + d - e 0 ( g + d ) 1+ g + d e ł G = G 0, A = A0, B = B0 (9) 1-aA 0 1 B0 ( g + d ) - 1+ g + d - e C I G Y * Hicks (1950) 6 (10) (11) (12) 5 (2) (3) (7) 10 2 R, S.E., D.W. 17

18 (10) C = W (1.41) (49.92) R 2 = 0.98, S. E. = , D. W. = (11) I = P P D ( 3.98) (4.86) (4.64) (14.51) R 2 = 0.96, S. E. = , D. W. = (12) D = K. (105.13) R 2 = 0.96, S. E. = , D. W. = A. (8) A 0, B0 A, B Y G GDP 68SNA A, B A, B 18

19 GDP 6.B. (9) A 0, B0 A, B 3.81 A, B Y m b G g + d - e G GDP Kuner and Posen (2002) 2.0 GDP VAR vecor auoregression analysis 19

20 VAR 1990 Lehner (2012) C G7 GDP OECD

21 GDP D. 8 GDP 5 GDP G7 GDP Yoshikawa (2000) 5 B 1 GDP (10) (11) (12) (10) 12 21

22 12 7 GDP GDP

23 GDP 23

24 G

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30 OECD IMF Michell (1988) 30

31 [1] Akerlof, George A. and Rober J. Shiller (2009) Animal Spiris. Princeon Universiy Press, Princeon [2] Borio, Claudio (2012a) On Time, Socks and Flows: Undersanding he Global Macroeconomic Challenges. An essay for a lecure a he Munich Seminar series on 15 Ocober hp:// [3] Borio, Claudio (2012a) The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: Wha Have We Learn? BIS Working Papers No 395. hp:// [4] Clark, Peer K. (1979) Invesmen in he 1970 s: Theory, Performance, and Predicion. Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy, 10, pp hp:// 979%201/1979a_bpea_clark_greenspan_goldfeld_clark.PDF [5] Drehmann, Mahias, Claudio Borio, and Kosas Tsasaronis (2012) Characerising he Financial Cycle: Don Lose Sigh of he Medium Term! BIS Working Papers No 380. hp:// [6] Eggersson, Gaui B. and Paul Krugman (2012) Deb, Deleveraging, and he Liquidiy Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach. The Quarerly Journal of Economics, 127, pp hp:// isherminskykooapproach.pdf [7] Galbraih, John Kenneh (1994) A Shor Hisory of Financial Euphoria. Penguin Books, New York [8] Hicks, J. R. (1950) A Conribuion o he Theory of he Trade Cycle. Oxford Universiy Press, Oxford [9] Ihori, Toshihiro, Toru Nakazao, and Masumi Kawade (2003) Japan s Fiscal Policies in he 1990s. The World Economy, 26, pp hp://www2.e.u-okyo.ac.jp/~seido/oupu/fujiwara/fujiwara25.pdf hp:// [10] Keynes, John Maynard (1936) The General Theory of Employmen, Ineres and Money. Macmillan, London. 31

32 2012 hp://cruel.org/books/generalheory/ [11] Kindleberger, Charles P. (2000) Manias, Panics and Crashes: A Hisory of Financial Crises. John Wiley & Sons, New York [12] Kuer, Kenneh and Adam S. Posen (2002) Fiscal Policy Effeciveness in Japan. Journal of he Japanese and Inernaional Economies, 16, pp hp:// ner.pdf [13] Lehner, Josh (2012) Checking in on Financial Crises Recoveries. A Blog of Oregon Economic News and Analysis. hp://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2012/09/24/checking-in-on-financial-crises-r ecoveries/ [14] Mahews, R. C. O. (1959) The Trade Cycle. Cambridge Universiy Press, Cambridge [15] Michell, Brian R. (1988) Briish Hisorical Saisics. Cambridge Universiy Press, Cambridge [16] Reinhar, Carmen M. and Kenneh S. Rogoff (2008) This Time is Differen: A Panoramic View of Eigh Cenuries of Financial Crises. NBER Working Paper No hp:// [17] Samuelson, Paul A. (1939) Ineracions beween he Muliplier Analysis and he Principle of Acceleraion. The Review of Economic Saisics and Saisics, 21, pp hp://people.bu.edu/rking/szgcourse/samresa39.pdf [18] Tinbergen, J. (1938) Saisical Evidence on he Acceleraion Principle. Economica, 5, pp hp://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/9958/1938economica.pdf [19] (2000) 32

金融政策の波及経路と政策手段

金融政策の波及経路と政策手段 Krugman(988) Woodford(999) (2000) (2000) 4 rae-of-reurn dominance 405 4 406 (i) a 2 cash good credi good b King and Wolman(999) (ii) 407 3 4 90 (iii) (iv) 408 λ κ (2.8) π x π λ = x κ Svensson 999 sric