社会保障と公的年金
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1 * oshio@econ.kobe-u.ac.jp 1
2 vs. funded sysem pay-as-you-go sysem 2 1 Akinson and Sigliz (1980) Myles (1995, Ch. 14) (1996, 9 ) (2001) Feldsein and Liebman (2002)
3 1 2 3 Feldsein ed. (1998) Smih (1982) Bohn(2001) (modified) golden rule rus fund
4 5 Myles (1995) Abel (2001) Smeers (2003) Oshio (2004a) Oshio 3 6 Feldsein (1985) Feldsein Feldsein (1987) Breyer (1989) Geanakoplos, Michell, and Zeldes (1998) Sinn (2000)
5 2 2 n w r p (1+n)p c1 c2 s ( 1+ r) s + ( n)p s = w c p c = 1+ 1, 2 c + c /( 1+ r) = w + ( n r) p /( 1+ r) 1 2 n r L (1+n)Lp 7 p ( 1+ r) s + ( r)p s = w c p c = 1+ 1, 2 ( r) = w c1 + c2 / 1+ ( 1+ n ) L + ( 1+ n) L /( 1+ r) + Λ = ( 1+ n)lp = ( r n) p /( 1+ r) Feldsein 1995 (1998 Feldsein
6 3 Feldsein (1+n)Lp 3 Feldsein and Samwick (1998) Auerbach and Kolikoff (1987) 6
7 8 p = p ( r n) p /( 1+ r) = ( 1+ n) p /( 1+ r) > 0 w c1 p w c1 2 1 Elmendorf and Sheiner (2000) 2 8 Auerbach and Kolikoff (1996) Kao(1998) (1999) (2001) 7
8 Diamond and Mirrlees (1986) Diamond and Mirrlees Gruber and Wise eds. (1999) (1998) (1998) (1998) (2000) 1 SSW: Social securiy wealh Gruber and Wise eds. 8
9 9 Sock and Wise (1990) r V(r) V r 1 s S s () r = β U ( w ) + β U [ b ( r) ] s= w s s= r ws s s r 1 bs(r) r s r s S S U( ) r G () r = V () r V () r* OV OV G ( r*) = V ( r*) V ( ) V(r*) V() Sock and Wise Coile and Gruber (2000a)(2000b) Gruber and Wise eds. (2004) 10 (2000) (2003) r s 9 10 r SSW(r) r* PV PV = SSW ( r **) SSW ( ) 9
10 generaional accouning (1998) Takayama and Kiamura(1999) 3 1 (1999) Coronado, Fulleron and Glass (2000) Gusman and Seinmeier (2001) Liebman (2002) Coronado e al. 10
11 2 2 w θ b w* w * = 1 θ w + b / 1+ ) ( ) ( r n w 1 ( 1 + n ) θw = b w* = ( 1 θ ) w + ( 1+ n) θw /( 1+ r) = w + θ[ ( 1+ n) w /( 1+ r) w] [( 1+ n) w /( 1+ r) w] = w + ( n r) w /( r) w * = w + θ θ 1+ n r w * w if w ( 1+ n) w /( 1+ r) ; w* < w if w > ( 1+ n) w /( 1+ r) 11 Feldsein and Liebman ed. (2002) 11 Oshio (2004b) ( ) 11
12 12 Groezen, Leers and Meijdam (2003) 2 2 second bes p 1 p p/(1+r) 1 1 p/(1+r) 1 a ( r) a = p / 1 + Groezen, Leers and Meijdam Nishimura and Zhang (1992) Peers (1995) Kolmar (1997) Sinn (1998) Cigno, Luporini and Peini (2000) 12
13 1 2 Becker and Barro (1988) Barro and Becker (1989) 13 Oshio (2003) 1 DB; defined-benefi DC; defined-conribuion Campbell and Feldsein eds. (2001) 13 Becker and Barro (1988) 13
14 Feldsein, Ranguelva, and Samwick (2001) Shoven ed.(2000) Diamond (2000) Diamond 2 Feldsein Diamond 3 NDC; noional defined conribuion 14 Abel (2001) Diamond and Geanakoplos (1999) Tamaki (2003) 15 14
15 16 Abel, A. B. (2001), The social securiy and rus fund, he riskless ineres rae, and capial accumulaion, in J. Y. Campbell and M. Feldsein eds., Risk Aspecs of Invesmen-based Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Akinson, A. B. and J. E. Sigliz, (1980), Lecures on Public Economics, McGraw-Hill. Auerbach A. J. and L. J. Kolikoff, (1987), Dynamic Fiscal Policy, Cambridge Universiy Press. Barro, R. J. and G. S. Becker (1989), Feriliy choice in a model of economic growh, Economerica, Vol. 57, pp Becker G. S. and R. J. Barro (1988), A Reformaion of he economic heory of feriliy, Quarerly Journal of Economics, Vol. 103, pp Bohn, H. (2001), Social securiy and demographic uncerainy: he risk-sharing properies of alernaive policies, in J. Y. Campbell and M. Feldsein eds., Risk Aspecs of Invesmen-based Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp
16 Breyer, F. (1989), On he inergeneraional Pareo efficiency of pay-as-you-go financed pension sysems, Journal of Insiuional and Theoreical Economics, Vol.145, pp Campbell, J. Y. and K. Felsein eds. (2001), Risk Aspecs of Invesmen-Based Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press. Cigno, A., A. Luporini, and A. Peini (2000), Transfers o families wih children as a principal-agen problem, CESifo Discussion Paper, No.351. Coile, C. and J. Gruber (2000a), Social securiy incenives for reiremen, in D. A. Wise ed., Themes in he Economics of Aging, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Coile, C. and J. Gruber (2000b), Social securiy and reiremen, NBER Working Paper, No. W7830. Coronado, J. L., D. Fulleron, and Th. Glass (2000), The progressiviy of social securiy, NBER Working Paper, No Diamond, P. (2000), Adminisraive coss and equilibrium changes wih individual accouns, in J. B. Shoven ed., Adminisraive Aspecs of Invesmen-based Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Diamond, P., and J. Geanakoplos (1999), Social securiy invesmen in equiies I: Linear case, NBER Working Paper, No Diamond, P. A. and J. Mirrlees (1986), A model of social insurance wih variable reiremen, Journal of Public Economics, Vol.10, pp Elmendorf, D. F. and L. M. Sheiner (2000), Should America save for is old age? Fiscal policy, populaion aging, and naional saving, Journal of Economic Perspecives, Vol.14, pp Feldsein, M. (1985), The opimal level of social securiy benefis, Quarerly Journal of Economics, Vol.10, pp Feldsein, M. (1987), Should social securiy be means esed? Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 95, pp Feldsein, M. (1995), Would privaizing social securiy raise economic welfare? NBER Workin g Paper, No Feldsein, M. (1998), The effec of privaizing social securiy on economic welfare: Appendix o he Inroducion, in M. Feldsein ed., Privaizing Social Securiy, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Feldsein, M. ed. (1998), Privaizing Social Securiy, The Universiy of Chicago Press. Feldsein, M. and J. B. Liebman (2002) Social securiy, in Auerbach, A.J. and M. Feldsein eds., Handbook of Public Economics, Norh-Holland, Vol.4, Ch.32, 16
17 pp Feldsein, M. and J. B. Liebman, eds. (2002), The Disribuive Aspecs of Social Securiy and Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press. Feldsein, M., E. Ranguelova, and A. Samwick (2001), The ransiion o invesmen-based social securiy when porfolio reurns and capial profiabiliy are uncerain, in J.Y. Campbell, J.Y. and K. Felsein eds., Risk Aspecs of Invesmen-Based Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Feldsein, M. and A. Samwick (1998), The ransiion pah in privaizing social securiy, in M. Feldsein ed., Privaizing Social Securiy, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Geanakoplos, J., O. S. Michell, and S. P. Zeldes (1998), Would a privaized social securiy sysem really pay a higher rae of reurn?, in R. D. Arnold, M. J. Graez, and A. H. Munnell eds., Framing he Social Securiy Debae, Brooking Insiuion, pp Groezen, B. van, T. Leers, and L. Meijdam (2003), Social securiy and endogenous feriliy: pensions and child allowances as Siamese wins, Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, pp Gruber, J. and D. A. Wise eds. (1999), Social Securiy and Reiremen around he World, The Universiy of Chicago Press. Gruber, J. and D. A. Wise eds. (2004), Social Securiy Programs and Reiremen around he World, The Universiy of Chicago Press, forhcoming. Gusman, A. and Th. Seinmeier (2001), How effecive is redisribuion under he Social Securiy benefi formula?, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 82, pp Kao, R. (1998), Transiion o an aging Japan: public pension, savings, and capial axaion, Journal of he Japanese and Inernaional Economies, vol.12, pp Kolmar, M. (1997), Inergeneraional redisribuion in a small open economy wih endogenous feriliy, Journal of Populaion Economics, Vol.10, pp Liebman, J. B. (2002), Redisribuion in he curren U.S. social securiy sysem, in M. Feldsein and J. B. Liebman, eds., The Disribuive Aspecs of Social Securiy and Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press, pp Myles, G.M. (1995), Public Economics, Cambridge Universiy Press. Nishimura, K. and J. Zhang (1992), Pay-as-you-go public pensions wih endogenous feriliy, Journal of Public Economics, Vol.48, pp Oshio, T. (2003), Social securiy, child allowances, and endogenous feriliy, Pie 17
18 Discussion Paper, No.171. Oshio, T. (2004a), Social securiy and rus fund managemen, Journal of he Japanese and Inernaional Economies, forhcoming. Oshio, T. (2004b), Social securiy and inrageneraional redisribuion of lifeime income in Japan, Japanese Economic Review, forhcoming. Peers, W. (1995), Public pensions, family allowances and endogenous demographic change, Journal of Populaion Economics, Vol.8, pp Shoven, J.B. ed. (2000), Adminisraive Aspecs of Invesmen-Based Social Securiy Reform, The Universiy of Chicago Press. Sinn, H.-W. (1998), The pay-as-you go pension sysem as a feriliy insurance and enforcemen device, CESifo Discussion Paper, No.154. Sinn, H.-W. (2000), Why a funded pension sysem is useful and why i is no useful? NBER Working Papers, No Smeers, K. (2003), Is he social securiy rus fund worh anyhing? NBER Working Paper, Smih, A. (1982), Inergeneraional ransfers as social insurance, Journal of Public Economics, Vol.19, pp Sock, J. H. and Wise D. A. (1990), Pensions, he opion value of work and reiremen, Economerica, Vol.58, pp Takayama, N. and Y. Kiamura (1999), Lessons from generaional accouning in Japan, American Economic Review 89, pp Tamaki, N. (2003) A sudy of he invesmen of Japan s public pension reserve fund How should he governmen behave as an insiuional invesor? NIRA Working Paper, (1996), pp (1998) , pp (2000) 35 4, pp (2001) 42, pp (2000) 35 4, pp (1998) 80 18
19 , pp (2002) 37, pp ,, 35 1,pp (1998) 49 3, pp (1999) 39, pp (2000) 51 4, 2000, pp (2001) 2. (2003) (2002) 53 2, pp (1999). (1998) 34 2,pp
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