Institute for International Policy Studies 2004 Institute for International Policy Studies 5 th Floor, Toranomon 5 Mori Building, Toranomon, Mi

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1 Institute for International Policy Studies Tokyo IIPS Policy Paper 307J June 2004

2 Institute for International Policy Studies 2004 Institute for International Policy Studies 5 th Floor, Toranomon 5 Mori Building, Toranomon, Minato-ku Tokyo, Japan Telephone (03) Facsimile (03)

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11 Noland(2001) P / 1,500 /GDP 70 IMF GNP GNP ANZ (Myung-ChulCho & Hyoungsoo Zang, Korea Institute for Economic International Policy (KIEP)) Shim Jae Hoon Disillusioned Donors CGE Deok Ryong Yoonn&Soon Chan Park,KIEP M. Noland,

12 44 M. Noland, KEDO 100 M. Noland,

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26 5 IAEA ABACCBrazillianArgentin Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear 22

27 Materials IAEA IAEA IAEA NPO Natural Resources Defense Council NPO IAEA 23

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32 2005 NPT NSG PSI 1 NSGNuclear Suppliers Group IAEA 92 2 NZ 2 FMCTFissile Material Cut-off Treaty NPT

33 3 CTBT: Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty PTBT CTBTO Proliferation Security Initiative: PSI PSI IAEA IAEA IAEA 29

34 6 IAEA THE ECONOMIST IAEA NPT IAEA 7 NPT NPT NSG NSG NSG NPT

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36 NY IAEA 93.7 IAEA IAEA NY IAEA IAEA IAEA KEDO NY

37 ADB IAEA ( EU EU BMD ABM KEDO KEDO IAEA IAEA IAEA 2003

38 IAEA IAEA IAEA NY KEDO IAEA , KEDO KEDO

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48 Alan D. Romberg & Michael D. Swaine The North Korea Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for Negotiations, May < Andrew Scobell, Crouching Korea, Hidden China, Asian Survey, Vol. XLll, No.2, March/April 2002, pp Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, China and the Korean Peninsula, Asia-Pacific Security Studies VOL3-NO1, January Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dealing with North Korea, Proliferation Brief, Volume 6, Number 23 December 18, 2003 < Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The World Just Got Safer. Give Diplomacy the Credit Washington Post, January 11, 2004 Sunday, January 11, 2004 < Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Iran Treaty and Regime Issues < Charles L. Pritchard, North Korean Nuclear Brinkmanship Testing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, November 16, 2003 < CIA World Factbook < Cristina Chuen An, Is This Russia's Chance to Return to Centre Stage? The South China Morning Post. Saturday, February 15, < Dan A. Pinkston and Phillip C. Saunders, Seeing North Korea Clearly, Survival. VOL45. NO3, pp August 26, 2003< Daniel A. Pinkston, Bargaining Failure and the North Korean Nuclear Program s Impact on International Nonproliferation Regimes,KNDU Review, December 2003, pp5-21 < Daniel A. Pinkston, North Korean Motivations for Developing Nuclear Weapons, October 30, 44

49 2002 < D.V. Hippel, T. Savage, P. Hayes THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR Nautilus Institute 2002 Federation of American Scientists, Doctrine, March < Federation of American Scientists, Energy and Power, June < Fred McGoldrick, Monitoring and Verification of DPRK Enrichment Freeze, January 2003< Gaurav Kampani, Proliferation Unbound: Nuclear Tales from Pakistan February, 2004 < Guarav Kampani, Second Tier Proliferation: The Case of Pakistan and North Korea The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 9.3., 2002 < International Atomic Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency < International Institute for Strategic Studies, North Korea s Weapons Program, PALGRAVE MACMILAN, NY, January 2004 James Clay Moltz, Russian Policy on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis [Prepared for presentation at the 13th annual International Security Conference of Sandia National Laboratories on "International Security Challenges and Strategies in the New Era," April 23-25, 2003, Albuquerque, New Mexico]< James Lilley, Testimony on North Korea, Senate Foreign Relations Committee March 12, 2003 < Jean du Preez & Maya Nakamura, Iran and the IAEA: A Troubling Past with a Hopeful Future?, December 2003< Jing-Dong Yuan, China and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis January 22, 2003 < 45

50 Jing-Dong Yuan, Six nations charting a course for peace on the Korean Peninsula Published in SignOnSanDiego.com. August 27, 2003 < Jing-Dong Yuan, U.S. Must Rethink North Korea Strategy The Japan Times. March 23, 2003 < Jing-Dong Yuan, Why China Should Rethink Its Approach to North Korea The South China Morning Post. May 29, 2003.< Jon B. Wolfsthal, Getting Back to Go: Re-establishing a Freeze on North Korea s Plutonium Fuel Cycle January 2003 < K.Alan Kronstadt, Pakistan: Chronology of Recent Events, CRS REPORT FOR COGRESS, February 5, 2004 < K.Alan Kronstadt, Pakistan-U.S Relations, CRS REPORT FOR COGRESS, February 6, 2004 < > Katy Oh &Ralph Hassig, Kim Jong-il Through the Looking Glass < Kimberly Ann Elliott, Economic Leverage and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis International Economics Policy Briefs, April 2003 < Korea Institute for National Unification,International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, Vol.12, No1, 2003 Leon Sigal, Negotiating with the North, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, November/December 2003 < Leonard S. Spector, Choices Are Narrowing to Meet the DPRK Nuclear Threat The Chosun Ilbo. February 7, 2003 < Marcus Noland, North Korea s External Economic Relations, Institute for International Economics, 2001 in Ch.6 Samuel S. Kim and Tai Hwan Lee, ed. North Korea and Northeast Asia Mel Gurtov, Common Security in North Korea, Asian Survey, Vol. XLll, No.3, May/June 2002, 46

51 pp Mitchell Reiss, Negotiating with North Koreans, January 2003 < Mohamed Eibaradei., Towards a safer world THE ECONOMIST October Nautilus Institute, A Korean Krakatoa? Scenarios for the Peaceful Resolution of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis, August 2003 Norman D. Levin &Yong-Sup Han, Sunshine in Korea, RAND, 2002 Peter Hayes, Bush's Bipolar Disorder and the Looming Failure of Multilateral Talks With North Korea, October < Peter Hayes and Jon Wolfsthal, Foreword of Verifying North Korean Nuclear Disarmament - A Technical Analysis Working Paper No. 38, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Nautilus Institute, June 2003 < Phillip C. Saunders, Confronting Ambiguity: How to Handle North Korea's Nuclear Program, March 2003 < Phillip C. Saunders, What to Expect from the Six-Party Talks on the Korean Nuclear Crisis, August 25, 2003 < Pierre Goldschmidt, The Increasing Risk of Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons Learned, IAEA BULLETIN 45/2 Dec.2003 R. Frank, A Socialist Market Economy in North Korea? Systemic Restrictions and a Quantitative Analysis, 2003 Samuel S. Kim and Tai Hwan Lee, ed. North Korea and Northeast Asia, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Pub Inc., Scott Snyder, North Korea on the Edge :Ch. 6 of Negotiating on the Edge, < Sebastian Harnisch, U.S.-North Korean Relations Under the Bush Administration, Asian Survey, Vol. XLll, No.6, November/December 2002, pp

52 Selig. S. Harrison, Korean Endgame, Princeton University Press, Oxfordshire, 2002 Seongwhun Cheon, North Korea s Nuclear Problem: Political Implications and Inspection Formats, January < Sharon Squassoni, Iran s Nuclear Program: Recent Developments CRS REPORT FOR COGRESS March 4, 2004 < Sharon A. Squassoni, North Korea s Nuclear Weapons: How Soon an Arsenal? CRS Report for Congress, February 2, 2004.< The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 2001/2002, London: Oxford University Press, 2002 The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 2002/2003, London: Oxford University Press, 2003 The Nautilus Institute, THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR September, 2002 V. D. Cha & D. C. Kang, NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS, NY, 2003 William Dudley, ed. North and South Korea, Farmington Hills: Greenhaven Press, 2003 Yinhay Ahn, North Korea in 2002, Asian Survey, Vol. XLll, No.1, January/February 2003, pp IAEA < The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) < < < < WEB < < ( )

54 J okibe@iips.org

日朝国交正常化交渉の経緯と朝鮮半島をめぐる最近の動向

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