1 1 Galor and Weil (1996) (Sleebos, 2003) 2-1, E-mail: koba@econ.kobe-u.ac.jp 1
1: 合計特殊出生率 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 出生率の推移 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 暦年 アメリカドイツフランス スウェーデン日本 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008 1 Apps and Rees (2004) Martínez and Iza (2004) (2002) (2000) (1999) (1994) (1998) (1998) (2003) 20% 2 1 2 17 66% 2
(2004, 2005) 2 2.1 2004 28 77 6,302 15 49 3
2 3 2: 食事の用意 週あたり ( 回数 ) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 食事の後片付け 買い物 洗濯 掃除 子供と遊ぶ 子供の世話 夫 妻 2004 2.2 24 5 5 2, 1, 0, 1, 2 41.8% 3 4
58.2% 1 (Galor and Weil, 1996) Sleebos (2003) OECD 5
1: -0.009-0.017-0.022-0.030 [0.15] [0.29] [0.36] [0.48] -0.162-0.166-0.133-0.136 [2.14]** [2.17]** [1.75]* [1.77]* 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 [1.41] [1.45] [1.12] [1.14] 0.189 0.182 0.180 0.175 [0.95] [0.93] [0.89] [0.87] 0.290 0.283 0.269 0.266 [1.47] [1.45] [1.34] [1.33] 0.265 0.256 0.218 0.213 [1.29] [1.25] [1.04] [1.02] -0.553-0.554-0.543-0.545 [12.25]*** [12.33]*** [12.02]*** [12.12]*** -0.232-0.190-0.229-0.202 [4.03]*** [1.90]* [3.91]*** [1.99]** -0.130-0.128 [0.51] [0.50] 0.041 0.041 [0.18] [0.18] 0.078 0.077 [0.44] [0.43] -0.210-0.215 [0.91] [0.93] 0.206 0.208 [1.09] [1.10] 0.064 0.064 [0.43] [0.43] 0.685 0.686 [3.54]*** [3.54]*** 0.033 0.041 [0.46] [0.58] -0.037-0.074 [0.17] [0.36] 0.008 0.005 [0.53] [0.34] 1405 1405 1405 1405 0.092 0.092 0.097 0.097 z *10% **5% ***1% 6
2.3.518 2 2 2: 1.000 0.518 1.000 0.445 0.404 1.000 0.426 0.453 0.336 1.000 0.382 0.427 0.374 0.506 1.000 0.172 0.147 0.212 0.118 0.203 1.000 0.343 0.329 0.349 0.336 0.365 0.406 1.000 (1983) K x k z = K k=1 λ kx k λ k λ k = arg max λ k V (z) s.t. K λ 2 k = 1 k=1 λ k z V (z) x 4 z x K 5 3 4 5 K (x 1, x 2,..., x K ) K K 7
1 1 3: 0.412-0.191-0.394 0.386 0.012 0.393-0.579 0.413-0.257-0.161 0.455 0.165-0.590 0.394 0.383-0.018-0.562-0.694 0.003 0.050 0.233 0.399-0.275 0.484 0.027-0.056 0.571 0.449 0.405-0.110 0.505-0.369 0.289-0.335-0.487 0.232 0.782 0.012 0.150 0.523 0.158 0.117 0.370 0.445 0.117 0.061-0.783-0.177-0.059 2.059 1.066 0.725 0.596 0.542 0.485 0.461 4 3 8
4: -0.022-0.030-0.032-0.040 [0.36] [0.48] [0.54] [0.65] -0.133-0.136-0.142-0.145 [1.75]* [1.77]* [1.87]* [1.90]* 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 [1.12] [1.14] [1.20] [1.22] 0.180 0.175 0.188 0.183 [0.89] [0.87] [0.93] [0.90] 0.269 0.266 0.290 0.285 [1.34] [1.33] [1.43] [1.42] 0.218 0.213 0.237 0.231 [1.04] [1.02] [1.13] [1.10] -0.543-0.545-0.547-0.549 [12.02]*** [12.12]*** [12.10]*** [12.18]*** -0.229-0.202-0.221-0.191 [3.91]*** [1.99]** [3.83]*** [1.89]* 0.055 0.055 0.054 0.054 [3.39]*** [3.38]*** [3.33]*** [3.32]*** 0.074 0.074 0.071 0.071 0.017 0.017 [2.67]*** [2.68]*** [2.57]** [2.57]** [0.52] [0.51] -0.019-0.019 [0.53] [0.53] -0.080-0.080 [1.93]* [1.92]* -0.062-0.063 [1.50] [1.51] -0.022-0.023 [0.52] [0.54] 0.041 0.039 [0.58] [0.55] -0.074-0.058 [0.36] [0.28] 0.005 0.006 [0.34] [0.37] 1405 1405 1405 1405 0.097 0.097 0.096 0.096 z *10% **5% ***1% 9
Willis (1973) Gronau (1976) Willis Gronau 3.1 M F c s l M, l F u u = c + s + v(l M, l F ). (1) v v v l M > 0, > 0, 2 v < 0, 2 v l F l 2 M l 2 F < 0 1 n h l w M, w F c = w M n M + w F n F. (2) s h M h F CES s = f(h M, h F ) = (h ρ M + hρ F ) 1 ρ, ρ < 1. (3) ρ = 1 3.2 n M n M 10
max u = c + s + v(l M, l F ), n M,n F,h M,h F s.t. c = w M n M + w F n F, s = f(h M, h F ) = (h ρ M + hρ F ) 1 ρ, l M = 1 n M h M, l F = 1 n F h F, n M n M. w M = v l M, w F = v l F, f = v, h M l M f h F = v l F. w M = f w F = f h m h f CES h M h F = ( wm w F h M hf ) σ. (4) σ 1 1 ρ 3.1. w F = v l F, w M < v, n M = n M, l M f = v f, = v. h M l M l F h F h M h F < ( wm w F ) σ. (5) h M = 1 n M l M lm n M = n M 11
3.2. (4) 3.3 6 6 3 12
5: OLS -0.519 0.001-0.025-0.035-0.023-0.037-0.037-0.023-0.033 [4.16]*** [0.02] [4.74]*** [5.46]*** [3.69]*** [5.93]*** [5.45]*** [2.01]** [3.55]*** -0.021-0.011 0.002 0.005 0.004 0.006 0.009 0.000-0.005 [0.28] [0.25] [0.55] [1.01] [0.70] [1.31] [1.56] [0.03] [0.58] 0.136 0.394-0.019-0.023-0.015-0.007-0.024 0.051 0.041 [0.17] [0.88] [0.81] [0.86] [0.55] [0.27] [0.79] [0.62] [0.62] 0.196 0.401 0.000-0.023 0.005-0.021-0.044 0.054 0.052 [0.24] [0.88] [0.01] [0.82] [0.15] [0.81] [1.39] [0.63] [0.77] -0.108-0.047-0.002 0.000-0.004-0.002-0.005-0.014-0.011 [1.74]* [1.96]* [0.92] [0.11] [1.51] [0.74] [1.60] [3.02]*** [2.84]*** 0.006-0.381 0.000 0.004 0.008 0.010 0.006-0.064-0.029 [0.03] [3.78]*** [0.01] [0.33] [0.72] [1.04] [0.45] [3.29]*** [1.87]* -0.137 0.021-0.010-0.010-0.004-0.003-0.009-0.005-0.007 [1.77]* [0.52] [2.85]*** [2.52]** [0.90] [0.91] [2.23]** [0.63] [1.04] -0.008-0.079 0.005 0.006 0.002 0.002-0.004-0.006-0.014 [0.13] [2.07]** [1.34] [1.47] [0.48] [0.60] [0.86] [0.80] [2.30]** -0.107 0.021-0.009-0.012-0.012-0.011-0.005 0.000-0.008 [1.32] [0.51] [2.04]** [2.49]** [2.57]** [2.69]*** [1.08] [0.01] [1.17] 1.631 0.248 0.137 0.166 0.236 0.130 0.235 0.492 0.281 [1.77]* [0.50] [4.60]*** [4.87]*** [6.73]*** [4.19]*** [6.11]*** [5.49]*** [3.83]*** 593 593 1727 1731 1725 1713 1730 628 696 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 t *10% **5% ***1% 13
5 (4) 6 14
4 19 88.5% 0.57% (, 2006) SSJ 2004 15
6: OLS -0.012 [0.20] -0.010 [0.23] 0.334 [0.73] 0.333 [0.71] Yes -0.044 [1.73]* -0.455 No [3.67]*** -0.047 [1.93]* -0.217 [1.39] 0.010 [0.25] 0.000 [0.00] 0.279 [0.55] 593 0.03 t *10% **5% ***1% 16
Apps, P. and R. Rees (2004) Fertility, Taxation and Family Policy, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 4, pp. 745 763. Galor, O. and D. Weil (1996) The Gender Gap, Fertility and Grouth, American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 3, pp. 374 383. Gronau, R. (1976) Leisure, Home Production and Work The Theory of The Allocation of Time Revisited. NBER Working Paper No. 137. Martínez, D. and A. Iza (2004) Skill Premium Effects on Fertility and Female Labor Force Supply, Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 1 16. Sleebos, J. E. (2003) Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responces. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papses No.15. Willis, R. J. (1973) A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, pp. S14 S64. (2000) 56 1 38 60 (1998) 459 39 49 (1999) 35 2 192 207 (2003) 39 1 43 54 (1983) (1994) (2004) 175 189 (2005) 4 17
(2006) Life Design Report Watching (2002) 10 (1998) 459 50 62 18