subjective measures E-mailkeiko.murata@mfs.cao.go.jp
subjective subjective measures Dardanoni Leland waiting option Browning and LusardiEngen and Gruber
Carroll and Samwick PSIDPanel Study of Income Dynamics KazarosianNLSNational Longitudinal Survey Engen and Gruber SIPPSurvey of Income and Program Participation replacement ratio rate DynanCEXConsumer Expenditures Survey Kimball Guiso, Jappeli and Terlizzese Lusardi HRSHealth Retirement Survey Starr-McCluer SCFSurvey of Consumer Finances ZhouDardanoni Carroll Kimball equivalent precautionary premium
Horioka, Murakami and Kohara Shimizutani Browning and Lusardi Starr-McCluer Browning and Lusardi
LelandSandmo u(. )u (. )> 0 Engen and GruberLusardi KazarosianStarr-McCluerGuiso, Jappeli and Terlizzese W i p Y i = f (agei, i, X i ), W i i Y p i age i i i X i preference X i Y p i King and Dicks-Mireaux u(c t ) T max E t (1+ ) t j u(c j ), c t,,c T j = t wealth transition equation W t +1 = (1+r t +1 )(W t +y t c t), c t W t y t r t Browning and LusardiDeaton y t
r r t = ra 0 t + 1 a + 1 i a a 0 W i,t +1 = (1+r)a a 0 +1 j [ y i,t (a a0 ) + j c i,t (a a 0 ) + j], j =0 c i,t i i W i i X i i Y p i
transitory
W i = 0 + 11 FDUM1 i + 12 FDUM2 i Y i p + 2 Y i p + 31 age i + 32 age i 2 + 4 fedu i + 5 children i + 6 nem i + 7 income i + i. W i = 0 + 11 IDUM2 i + 12 IDUM3 i + 13 IDUM4 i Y i p + 2 Y i p + 31 age i + 32 age i 2 + 4 fedu i + 5 children i + 6 agap + i. W FDUM1 FDUM2 IDUM2 IDUM3 IDUM4 Y p age fedu children nem income agap 11 > 0, 12 > 0, 11 > 0, 12 > 0,
max ( 11, 12 ) 13, finite horizon 31 + 2 32 age > 0, 31 + 2 32 age > 0, P
P P
StarkStark
i i i i i i
deterministic attrition
e it 1 e it e it +1 e it +2 e it +3 e it +4 e it e it +1 e it +2 e it +3
i W i p Y i = h ( i, X i ), W i i X i W i = 0 + 11 IDUM2 i + 12 IDUM3 i + 13 IDUM4 i Y i p + 2 Y i p + 3 fedu i + 4 children i + 5 agap + i, 11 12 11 12 Kimball Kimballstandard risk aversion loss-aggravating risk
Kimball
Kotlikoff
King and Dicks-Mireaux King and Dicks-Mireaux y p i i age i age ln y i p = Z i + u i c (age i ), Z i u i = 0= 2 u c (age i ) transitory componenty it ln y it = ln y i p + h (age it age ) + e it, h age- earnings profilee it = 0= 2 e u i ln y it = Z i + g(age it )+ u i + e it, g(age it )=h (age it age ) c (age it ), Z i ln y it = Z i 1 + Z i 2 age it + Z i 3 age 2 it + u i + e it,
1 2 3 u i Z i age 2 i Z i w j, age W j, age y i, age = y i, 50. W j, 50 agej j w j, age / w j
R u i
i 1 61 age N y i,age+n y i p =. 61 age N n= N (1+ r) n N u i u i
P =
ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.1 Browning, Martin, and Annamaria Lusardi, Household Saving: Micro theories and Micro facts, Journal of Economic Literature, 34, 1996, pp. 1797-1855. Carroll, Christopher D, How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 1994, pp. 61-135. and Andrew A. Samwick, How Important is Precautionary Saving? Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 1998, pp. 410-419. Dardanoni, Valentino, Precautionary Savings under Income Uncertainty: a Cross-Sectional Analysis, Applied Economics, 23, 1991, pp. 153-160. Deaton, Angus S., Understanding Consumption, Oxford University Press, 1992. Dynan, Karen E., How Prudent are Consumers? Journal of Political Economy, 6, 1993, pp. 1104-1113. Engen, Eric M., and Jonathan Gruber, Unemployment Insurance and Precautionary Saving, Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 2001, pp. 545-579. Guiso, Luigi, Tullio Jappeli, and Daniele Terlizzese, Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving, Journal of Monetary Economics, 30, 1992, pp. 307-337. Horioka, Charles Y., Akane Murakami, and Miki Kohara, How Do the Japanese Cope with Risk? Seoul Journal of Economics, 15, 2002, pp. 1-30. Kazarosian, Mark, Precautionary Saving-A Panel Study, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 1997, pp. 241-247. Kimball, Miles S., Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica, 58, 1990, pp. 53-73., Standard Risk Aversion, Econometrica, 61, 1993, pp. 589-611. King, Mervyn A., and Louis Dicks-Mireaux, Asset Holdings and the Life-Cycle, Economic Journal, 92, 1982, pp. 247-267.
Kotlikoff, Laurence J., What determines savings? MIT press, 1989. Leland, Hyne E., Saving and Uncertainty: the Precautionary Demand for Saving, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82, 1968, pp. 465-473. Lusardi, Annamaria, On the Importance of PS motive, American Economic Review, 88, 1998, Papers and proceedings, pp. 449-453. Sandmo, Agnar, The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions, Review of Economics Studies, 37, 1970, pp. 353-360. Shimizutani, Satoshi, Are Japanese Consumers Prudent in the Late 1990s? Evidence from Japanese Micro Data, ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.15 (Part II), Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, 2002. Stark, Oded, Altruism and Beyond, Cambridge University Press, 1995. Starr-McCluer, Martha, Health Insurance and Precautionary Saving, American Economic Review, 86, 1996, pp. 285-295. Zhou, Yanfei, Precautionary Saving and Earnings Uncertainty in Japan: A household-level Analysis, Journal of Japanese and International Economics, 17, 2003, pp. 192-212.