27 27 IEEJ:2007 7 19 6 7 1
IEEJ:2007 7 PJM RTO Tradable Obligations System 2
IEEJ:2007 7 P ES P* P ED P* 3
IEEJ:2007 7 /1,000kWh 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 EEX Powernext Omel Pool GME APX Nord Pool Denmark West 20 10 0 98/01 99/01 00/01 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 4
IEEJ:2007 7 /1,000kWh 140 120 100 80 60 40 PJM RTO PJM East PJM West ComEd DAY AEP DUQ DOM New England New York MISO 20 0 98/01 99/01 00/01 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 RTO ISO 5
IEEJ:2007 7 PJM 2005 7 25 30 /1,000kWh 350 /1,000kWh 350 300 286.9 250 300 200 150 100 2005 2004 2003 250 200 8.0 15.8 50 150 0 100-50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% PJM Interconnection LLC,, Monthly Locational Marginal Pricing 3% 10% 2003 37.81 210.83-5.80 24.83 9.0% 24.3% 2004 42.13 180.12-0.76 21.13 7.4% 20.5% 2005 58.08 286.86-7.53 35.92 9.0% 23.8% 3% 10% 50 0 35.9 18.2 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 6
IEEJ:2007 7 7
8 TSO 1 2% IEEJ:2007 7
IEEJ:2007 7 PJM RTO 9
IEEJ:2007 7 PJM 2004 2005 2005 58 PJM Interconnection LLC, Market Monitoring Unit, 2005 State of the Market Report PJM Locational Marginal Pricing PJM RTO 10
IEEJ:2007 7 Cent Euro/ Wh 20 OMEL 2005 1 27 12 APX 2006 11 21 12 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Demand Supply 2005 5.3 2 0 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 1,000kWh OMEL Market Results APX Aggregated Curves 15% 1/3 1/4 1/4 11
IEEJ:2007 7 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% PJM 2005 3,500 3,000 1.92% 2,500 18.2% 2,000-12.9% 1,500 1,000 500 0 0% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 0 5.0 OMEL 2005 5.1 7.5 7.6 10.0 10.1 12.5 12.6 15.0 8.4% 25.2% 3.0% 15.1 17.5 17.6 20.0 PJM Interconnection LLC,, Hourly Day-Ahead Demand Bid Data Hourly Load Data OMEL OMEL Market Results 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2003 1.70% 4.98% 0.00% 2004 3.10% 10.79% 0.00% 2003 2004 2005 2005 4.24% 11.61% 0.00% 0 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Powernext RTE 20.1 3 4% 2 12
IEEJ:2007 7 kw TSO 13 kw
Powernext IEEJ:2007 7 Powernext 2005 /1,000kWh 35.0 34.5 34.0 33.5 33.0 32.5 1,000kW 60 50 40 33.24 30 20 2005 48.26 /1,000kWh 32.0 31.5 04/6/18 04/7/18 04/8/18 04/9/18 04/10/18 04/11/18 04/12/18 Powernext Statistics 10 0 2005 2004 6 18 12 31 14
Powernext IEEJ:2007 7 /1,000kW 70 3 2005 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2004/9/30 2004/12/30 2005/3/30 2005/6/30 2005/9/30 Powernext Statistics 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2005 5 2005 6 2005 7 2005 8 2005 9 2005 10 2005 11 2005 12 15
16 Powernext -21.4-15.5 4.1 0.6 8.3 6.7-3.8 1.0-5.5-11.3-6.5 2.8 72.9 67.1 45.5 44.6 35.2 44.8 44.8 36.1 40.3 50.3 40.2 31.5 51.5 51.6 49.6 45.3 43.5 51.5 41.0 37.1 34.8 39.0 33.7 34.2 49.1 49.6 46.9 41.7 38.9 35.8 31.7 28.4 30.7 31.5 33.0 34.1 67.5 53.5 57.4 58.2 57.9 57.2 44.2 43.4 38.0 39.0 36.8 38.3 53.1 52.0 49.3 48.6 47.8 42.0 40.4 39.6 34.7 33.2 34.5 35.4 9 10 11 12 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2005 Powernext Statistics 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 /1,000kW IEEJ:2007 7
IEEJ:2007 7 $/MWh MWh FC peak = R spike FC base = FC peak + (VC peak -VC base ) D * peaker R spike 1 FC peak FC base VC peak VC base D * peaker 100% 17
IEEJ:2007 7 P D base D peak FC base =(P base VC base h peak P peak VC base h base +h peak FC peak = P peak VC peak h peak P peak VC peak h peak h base P base VC base Q base Q peak Q base +Q peak Q i i=base peak base peak D i i=base peak base peak P i i=base peak base peak 18
IEEJ:2007 7 1,000kW 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJM RTO 2003 2005 2005 2004 2003 31,697 53,737 19,414 6,035 2003 2004 2005 32,268 51,962 19,543 6,049 33,309 59,031 19,825 6,917 0 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% PJM Interconnection LLC, 19
IEEJ:2007 7 P D peak D base P peak P base Q base Q peak Q base +Q peak 20
IEEJ:2007 7 VOLL TSO (NETA UK (PJM NY NE 21
IEEJ:2007 7 P P peak P 0 base P 1 base D base D peak Q base Q peak Q 22
IEEJ:2007 7 TSO Steven Stoft 2002 Oren Sioshansi 2003 Joskow Tirole 2004 TSO 23
IEEJ:2007 7 Steven Stoft 2002 Joskow Tirole 2004 3 Newbery 2004 Neuhoff Vries 2004 24
IEEJ:2007 7 P D peak D base P peak P base P kw Q base Q peak Q base +Q peak P kw * Q base +Q peak 25
IEEJ:2007 7 26
IEEJ:2007 7 27
IEEJ:2007 7 John Kwoka, Restructuring the U.S. Electric Power Sector: A Review of Recent Studies, 2006 10 Steven Stoft, Power System Economics, 2002 2 Part 2 Reliability, Price Spikes, and Investment Shmuel S. Oren, Ensuring Generation Adequacy in Competitive Electricity Markets, 2003 6 Shmel Oren and Ramteen Sioshansi, Joint Energy and Reserves Auction with Opportunity Cost Payment for Reserves, University of California, Berkeley, 2003 7 Paul Joskow and Jean Tirole, Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets, CSEM WP 129, 2004 4 Fabien Roques, David M. Newbery, William J. Nuttall, Generation Adequacy and Investment Incentives in Britain: from the Pool to NETA, CMI Working Paper, 2004 10 Karsten Neuhoff and Laurens De Vries, Insufficient Incentives for Investment in Electricity Generation, CMI Working Paper 42, 2004 3 28
PJM RTO PJM RTO IEEJ:2007 7 PJM Interconnection LLC 430 685TWh PJM East 292TWh 40% 29
PJM RTO IEEJ:2007 7 PJM RTO /1,000kWh 2005 /1,000kWh 5 8 250 200 150 100 50 0 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 /1,000kWh 250 kw 1 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 250 200 150 100 50 0 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 kw /1,000kWh 250 9 12 5 6 7 8 200 200 150 1 2 150 9 10 100 3 4 100 11 12 50 50 0 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 kw PJM Interconnection LLC 0 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 kw 30
Tradable Obligations System IEEJ:2007 7 EU Tradable Obligations System Tradable Obligations System (a) a) (b) b) c) 31
IEEJ:2007 7 Tradable Obligations System P D peak P peak 0 P peak 1 Q renewable D base Q reserve Q base Q reserve Q peak Tradable Obligations System Q i i=base peak renewable base peak renewable report@tky.ieej.or.jp D i i=base peak base peak P i i=base peak base peak 32