MEMOIRS OF SHONAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Vol. 37, No. 1, 2003 * Balance-of-Power Theory vs. International Political Reality Mougenthau, Waltz, and Post-Waltz Masanori HASEGAWA* Theory of International Politics, written by Kenneth N. Waltz in 1979, has had a profound influence on North American academic society of International Politics, and the field of security studies in particular, since the 1980s. In this book, by advocating balance-of-power theory, he revived the balance of power and realism (This realism was called neorealism and was separated from Morgenthau s traditional realism). Waltz s balance-of-power theory has been criticized mainly by non-realists such as neo-liberal institutionalists or constructivists, and relatively, their comments have drawn the attention. However, some realists who emerged after Theory of International Politics (I call them Post-Waltz ) suggest very impressive alternatives of Waltz s theory, too. This article is the comparisons of Waltz and Post-Waltz about the balance of power, and investigates these three issues: (1) From what viewpoints Waltz and Post-Waltz explain and estimate the balance of power? (2) How Post-Waltz criticize, revise or follow Waltz s balance-of-power theory to apply it to their own foreign policy analyses? (3) To what extent the hypothesis of the balance of power are consistent with the reality of international politics and foreign policy? (Kenneth N.Waltz) 1 1979 2 3 4 (balance of power) (Hans J. Morgenthau) (neorealist theory) balance-of-power theory: (neo-liberal institutionalism) (constructivism) * 14 10 8 5 (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) (4) 77
37 1 (Martin Wight) 4 6 7 2 (balancing) (bandwagoning) 8 ABC A B C B A A B C A 1 17 19 1 2 9 3 1 10 17 19 78
2 11 2 12 1 13 14 15 1 16 17 18 19 20 1894 2 21 22 79
37 1 2 2 23 70 1 24 A B C B A C C A C 2 1993 10 20 EU 25 3 26 (Paul Schroeder) 27 4 NATO 3 3 (Stephen M. Walt) 2 (balance of threat theory) 28 29 30 31 80
32 33 (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) 34 NATO 35 36 4 (Randall Schweller) 37 38 2 (state interest) (balance of interest theory) 39 2 2 1930 1930 1930 2 40 81
37 1 binding, distancing, buckpassing, engagement 41 42 1930 3 43 5 1990 (John J. Mearsheimer) 44 45 46 47 2 48 49 50 6 (Joseph M. Grieco) 82
(Robert O.Keohane) (relative gain) 51 capabilities 52 53 (Robert Powell) 54 55 56 EU EMS (European Monetary System) EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) 57 7 (Thomas J. Christensen) (Jack Snyder) (Robert Jervis) = chain-gangs 83
37 1 buckpassing 2 chain-gangs buck-passing 58 (Stephen Van Evera) 59 1914, 39, 40, 41 1941 1956 60 8 61 8.1 62 84
8.2 8.2 1 1930 buck-passing 63 64 2 65 66 67 8.3 85
37 1 EU EU 8.3 68 10 8.4 69 1993 70 21 18 21 EU ARF NATO 86
71 NATO EU NATO EU EU 72 EU ASEAN (ARF) 73 NATO NATO 74 75 X X 1 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: Mcgraw-Hill Publishing Company, 1979). TIP 2 Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), p. 15. 3 106 1994 30 4 Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996), preface, xii and p. 12. 87
37 1 5 (1) 53 1996 12 (2) 54 1997 4 (3) 56 1997 12 63 2000 4 6 Michel Sheehan, The Balance of Power: History and Theory (London: Routledge, 1996), pp. 15 16. 7 Ibid., pp. 1 4, 15 16 8 2 2 9 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, Fifth Edition (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978), pp. 209 211, 213. 1986 10 Ibid., pp. 103 106, 202 221. 11 Ibid., pp. 329, 338 350, 354. 12 Waltz, TIP, pp. 88, 91, 102, 118. 13 Ibid., pp. 91 92, 126. 14 Ibid., pp. 124, 127 128. 15 Ibid., pp. 118, 126, 201. 16 Ibid., pp. 126 127, 202. 17 Ibid., pp. 126; Kenneth N. Waltz, Reflections on Theory of International Politics:A Response to My Critics, in Robert O. Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), pp. 331 332. 18 Waltz, TIP, pp. 126, 128, 201. 19 Ibid., pp. 165 168. 20 Kenneth N. Waltz, Realist Thought and Neorealist Theory, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 44, No. 1, 1990, p. 36; Waltz, TIP, pp. 126. 21 Ibid., pp. 125, 166. 22 Ibid., pp. 119, 125. 23 Ibid., pp. 165 174. 24 Ibid., pp. 118, 126, 168. 25 Kenneth N. Waltz, The Emerging Structure of International Politics, Internaitonal Security, Vol. 18, No. 2, 1993, pp. 44 45, 50, 53 54, 64 68. 26 27 2 1999 9 101 107 27 Paul Schroeder, Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1994, p. 117. 28 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Paperback Edition (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1990), preface x, pp. 5, 19 22, 25 28, 172, 263 264. 29 Ibid., pp. 5, 21, 28, 32, 264. 30 Ibid., pp. 21 26, 264. Ibid., p. 25. 31 Ibid., Preface to the Paperback Edition vi, vii, pp. 31 32, 166 167, 170. 32 Ibid., pp. 5 6, 21 22, 27, 275 276. 33 Ibid., p. 32. 34 Ibid., pp. 21, 26, 29 31, 173 179. 35 Ibid., Preface to the Paperback Edition, vii. 36 Stephen M. Walt, Revolution and War (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1996), p. 4. 37 Randall Schweller, Deadly Imbalance: Tripolarity and Hitler s Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia Universtiy Press,1998), pp. 16 17, 20 21, 33. 38 Randall Schweller, New Realist Research on Alliance: Refining, Not Refuting, Waltz s Balancing Proposition, American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No. 4, 1997, p. 929. 39 Schweller, Deadly Imbalance, pp. 9 10, 16 26, 85. 40 Ibid., pp. 84 90. 41 Ibid., pp. 65 75; Schweller, New Realist Research, pp. 927, 929. 42 Schweller, Deadly Imbalance, p. 89. 43 Schweller, Deadly Imbalance, pp. 7, 31, 44, 48 55, 200. 44 John J. Mearsheimer, Buck to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War, International Security, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1990, p. 12; Idem, The False Promise of International Institutions, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1994/95, pp. 9 10. 45 Ibid., pp. 11 12; Mearsheimer, Buck to the Future, p. 13n. 46 Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981), pp. 20, 29, 87 88, 197. Ibid., pp. 186, 197 198. 88
Ibid., pp. 29, 116n, 147. 47 Mearsheimer Buck to the Future, p. 13n. 48 Ibid., pp. 18, 21. 49 Richard Rosecrance, A New Concert of Powers, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2, 1992, pp. 72 73. 50 Mearsheimer, The False Promise, pp. 3 5 37. 51 Joseph M. Grieco, Understanding The Problem of International Cooperation: The Limits of Neoliberal Institutionalism and The Future of Realist Theory, in David A. Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp. 302 304. 52 Ibid., p. 303. 53 Ibid., pp. 313 315, 321. 54 Ibid., pp. 313 316. 55 Joseph M. Grieco, Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism, International Organization,Vol. 42, No. 3, 1988, pp. 498, 498n, 499n, 500n. 56 2 1 capabilities Waltz, TIP, p. 105. 57 Grieco, Anarchy, pp. 331, 334; Idem, State Interests and Institutional Rule Trajectories:A Neorealist Interpretation of The Maastricht Treaty and European Economic and Monetary Union, Secutity Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1996, pp. 286, 289 300. 58 Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, Chain gangs and passed bucks: predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity, International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2, 1990, pp. 138 168; Idem, Progressive Research on Degenerate Alliance, American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No. 4, 1997, pp. 919 922. 59 Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1999), pp. 74 86. 60 Ibid., pp. 8 11, 104. 61 62 Waltz, TIP, p. 204. 63 Christensen and Snyder, Progressive Research, p. 921. 64 97 98 65 Waltz, TIP, pp. 118 119. (2) 37 38 66 Schroeder, Historical Reality, pp. 117, 121, 146. 67 Schweller, New Realist Research, p. 929. Kenneth N. Waltz, Evaluating Theories, American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No. 4, p. 914. 68 1999 11 7 2001 7 18 69 Kenneth N. Waltz, International Politics Is Not Foreign Policy, Security Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996, p. 54. 70 1996 Colin Elman, Horses for Courses: Why Not Neorealist Therories of Foreign Policy? and Cause, Effect, and Consistency: A Response to Kenneth Waltz, Secutity Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996; Waltz, op. cit., 1996. 71 Waltz, TIP, pp. 112, 118, 126. 72 1996 12 12 13 2000 12 9, 10 2000 6 7, 20 73 ASEAN 49 1 2001 1 74 Helga Hafetendorn, Robert O. Keohane and Celeste A. Wallander, Imperfect Unions: Security Institutions over 89
37 1 Time and Space (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 22 23; Thomas Risse-Kappen, Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO, in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., op. cit, 1996, pp. 364, 394 396; Thomas U. Berger, Norms, Identity, and National Security in Germany and Japan, in Ibid., pp. 355 356. 75 2 8 8.2 90