upstreamness 2000... Heiwai Tang 2015 10 30 29 11 28 2016 2016 6 18 19 E-mail: kenji.suganuma@boj.or.jp / /2016.7 1
1. Timmer et al. [2014] Global Value Chain: GVC GVC FTA EU ASEAN IT Krugman [1980] Melitz [2003] iphone GVC upstreamness Antràs and Chor [2013] 2 /2016.7
GVC GVC GVC GVC 2000 2 3 4 5 2. 3
1 1 2010 Antràs and Chor [2013] 2011 Fally [2012] 2 Antràs et al. [2012] Antràs et al. [2012] 3 1 1 2 i (1) (3) 2 Antràs et al. [2012] (1) nj=1 U i =1 Fi d ij F nj=1 nk=1 j d ik d kj F j +2 + 3 + (Antràs and Chor [2013]) (1) Y i Y i Y i U i = 1 + n j=1 d ij Y j Y i U j (Fally [2012]) (2) U i = 1 Y i n j=1 Y i d jj (Antràs et al. [2012]) (3) Antràs et al. [2012] 426 6 1 4.65 2.09 0.85 OECD-STAN EU16 41 3 GDP... 1 output upstreamness 2 3 3 4 /2016.7
GDP Fally [2012] Antràs et al. [2012] GVC Fally and Hillberry [2015] IDE-JETRO Value-added content of export ratio: VAX GVC Ito and Veniza [2015] Fally and Hillberry [2015] IDE-JETRO 1990 2005 i ii iii Miller and Temurshoev [2015] World Input Output Database WIOD 2 1 4... 4 Johnson [2014] 1 5
5 WIOD 40 6 35 1995 2014 2011 7 World Input Output Table National Input Output Table IDE-JETRO Asian International Input Output Table 9 8 1985 5 2013 2005 76 1995 78 49 OECD (Inter-Country Input Output Tables) 61 OECD34 27 34 1995 5 2008 2015 2011 9 Johnson and Noguera [2012] IDE-JETRO OECD Johnson [2014] WIOD Antràs and Yeaple [2014] Timmer et al. [2014] Los, Timmer,... 5WIOD 2011 4,630 7.7 4,630 22 6 27 EU EU EU KLEMS WIOD 13 6 4 3 rest of the world 7WIOD Dietzenbacher et al. [2013] Timmer et al. [2015] 8 9 OECD Trade in Value Added: TiVA 2013 2013 2009 2015 2011 6 /2016.7
and de Vries [2015] WIOD GVC 3 1 3 1 WIOD 1995 2011 2 3 3. 1 WIOD WIOD 2 2 1995 2011 7
IDE-JETRO WIOD 40 85 WIOD 5 2011 6 1995 2000 2005 7 12 17 34 2011 37 10 4 3 185 2011 190 1 2 1 2 2 Y i i F i i Z i a ij j... 10 2011 1995 2000 2005 2011 37 2005 34 2005 2011 3 3 2011 8 /2016.7
1 WIOD 2 i A Y F Y (4) I n n a 11 a 1n A:=....., a n1 a nn F 1 F :=. F n, Y 1 Y :=. Y n, Y:= diag( Y ) = Y 1 0.... (4) 0 Y n 9
d ij j 1 i a ij /Y j D = (d ij ) (5) AY 1 a 11 a 1n d 11 d 1n Y 1 Y n D:=..... = AY 1 =..... d n1 d nn a n1 Y 1 a nn Y n. (5) 3 2 1 (1) Antràs and Chor [2013] i (Y i ) i (F i ) j (Z i ) 2 Z i (6) n n Y i = F i + Z i = F i + a ij = F i + d ij Y j j=1 j=1 n n n n n n = F i + d ij F j + d ik d kj F j + d il d lk d kj F j +. (6) j=1 j=1 k=1 j=1 k=1 l=1 (6) 2 1 i i 2 i j 3 i k j (6) 1 i 2 i j 3 i k j (6) i Y i (7) 1 = F nj=1 i d ij F nj=1 nk=1 j d ik d kj F nj=1 nk=1 nl=1 j d il d lk d kj F j + + + +. (7) Y i Y i Y i Y i i (U i ) (7) (8) 10 /2016.7
nj=1 U i = 1 Fi d ij F nj=1 nk=1 j d ik d kj F j + 2 + 3 Y i Y i Y i nj=1 nk=1 nl=1 d il d lk d kj F j + 4 +. (8) Y i U = (U 1,...,U n ) (4) (5) (9) U = Y 1 [I + 2D + 3D 2 + ] F. (9) (9) [I D] Y (10) U (11) [I D] Y U = [I + D + D 2 + ] F = [I D] 1 F, (10) U = Y 1 [I D] 2 F. (11) (11) Antràs et al. [2012] (6) Y (12) Y = [I + D + D 2 + ] F = [I D] 1 F. (12) (12) [I D] 1 (12) (11) (5) (13) U = Y 1 [I D] 1 Y = [Y DY] 1 Y 1 = [I Y 1 A] 1 1, (13) 1 1 n B (14) (15) a 11 a 1n Y 1 Y 1 B:= Y 1 A =....., a n1 a nn Y n Y n (14) U = [I B] 1 1. (15) 11
(15) Ito and Vezina [2015] (15) [I B] 1 (Miller and Temurshoev [2015]) 1 1 (6) Z i = 0 Y i = F i (8) WIOD 1.5 3.0 1.0 3.7 4 3 (15) (16) U = [I + B + B 2 + ] 1. (16) (16) (16) (16) B = (b ij ) i 1 i j i 2011 Z F 12 /2016.7
( ) Y 1 1 66 ( ) Z (1) (0.66) 34 i ( ) F (1) 2 39 ( ) Z (2) 2 (0.39) 11 [I + B + B 2 + ] (16) j i 4 5 4 U ci c i c U c (Y ci /Y c ) (17) U c = n i=1 ( ) U ci Yci. (17) Y c... 11 6 0.07 7 7 0 7 1 6 13
ΔU c ΔU ci Δ (Y ci /Y c ) 2 within effect between effect (18) ΔU c = n i=1 [ ΔU ci ( Yci Y c )] + n i=1 [ U ci Δ ( Yci Y c )]. (18) (18) 1 2 (U) (ΔU) (Y c /Y) (19) (20) U = m c=1 ( ) U c Yc, (19) Y ΔU = m c=1 [ ΔU c ( )] Yc + Y m c=1 [ U c Δ ( Yc Y )]. (20) i U i (21) (Y ci /Y i ) ΔU i (22) (21) i U i (Y i /Y) (23) ΔU (24) (19) (23) (20) (24) U i = m c=1 ( ) U ci Yci, (21) Y i ΔU i = m c=1 [ ΔU ci ( Yci Y i )] + m c=1 [ U ci Δ ( Yci Y i )], (22) 14 /2016.7
U = n i=1 ( ) U i Yi, (23) Y ΔU = n i=1 [ ΔU i ( )] Yi + Y n i=1 [ U i Δ ( Yi Y )]. (24) 4. 1 3 1 2 3 5 (24) (18) 1 n i=1 U i Δ(Y i /Y) n i=1 U ci Δ(Y ci /Y) 1 1995 2011 1995 2000 1 1995 2011 WIOD 15
2 1995 2011 WIOD 12 3 2 2 2 1 2000 2010 13 3 2 3 1 3 (22) 1995 2011 3(a), (b) (22) ΔU ci (Y ci /Y i ) i 3(a)... 12 13 16 /2016.7
3 1995 2011 WIOD 5 4 2000 4 3(b) 14... 14 17
15 2 1 4 4 (18) 4 1995 2011 2000 2000 2011 5 (18) 14 16 (16) 6 2 4 6(a) 2011 66 1 6(b) 1995 2011 2011 1 66 43 3 2 24 3 1... 15 Fally [2012] 16 5 4 2000 2 18 /2016.7
4 1995 2011 WIOD 2 39 21 18 3 6(b) 2 1995 2011 2.17 2.61 GVC 19
5 1995 2011 WIOD 6(c) 2011 0.39 0.85 1995 2011 0.11 0.07 20 /2016.7
6 (b) WIOD 21
3 7 (22) 1995 2011 19 17 2000 2 8 (22) 1995 2011 7 WIOD... 17 22 /2016.7
8 WIOD 3 WIOD EU WIOD 18 3 19... 18 WIOD EU NACE WIOD 35 19 2 WIOD 23
9 2 (16) 1 9(a) Research and Development: R&D 9(b) 1995 2011 1 2 9(c) 1995 2011 2 2 2 i j i j k k j k 2 20... 1 20 1 (8) 2 i j 2 3 i j 24 /2016.7
10 1995 2011 R&D 2 10(a) 10(b) 1995 2011... k 25
2 1995 1 1990 Wi-Fi 2 1 2 21 2 1 1 5. GVC 1 2000 3 2... 21 R&D 26 /2016.7
3 1 1 2 11 value-added ratio 22 Ito and Vezina [2015] Baldwin, Ito, and Sato [2014] U 3 Miller and Temurshoev [2015] 23 GVC 4 2 GVC 1... 22 23 input downstreamness 27
11 WIOD 28 /2016.7
Antràs, Pol, Davin Chor, Thibault Fally, and Russell Hillberry, Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows, American Economic Review, 102(3), 2012, pp. 412 416.,and, Organizing the Global Value Chain, Econometrica, 81(6), 2013, pp. 2127 2204., and Stephen R. Yeaple, Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade, Handbook of International Economics, 4, 2014, pp. 55 129. Baldwin, Richard, Tadashi Ito, and Hitoshi Sato, Portrait of Factory Asia: Production Network in Asia and Its Implication for Growth The Smile Curve, Joint Research Program Series, IDE-JETRO, 159, 2014. Bernard, Andrew B., J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding, and Peter K. Schott, Firms in International Trade, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3),2007,pp. 105 130. Dietzenbacher, Erik, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, Marcel P. Timmer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, The Construction of World Input Output Tables in the WIOD Project, Economic Systems Research, 25, 2013, pp. 71 98. Fally, Thibault, Production Staging: Measurement and Facts, Working paper, 2012 (available at https://are.berkeley.edu/~fally/papers/fragmentation_us_aug_2012.pdf)., and Russell Hillberry, A Coasian Model of International Production Chain, NBER Working Paper, No. 21520, 2015. Helpman, Elhanan, Marc J. Melitz, and Yona Rubinstein, Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(2), 2008, pp. 441 487. Ito, Tadashi, and Pierre-Louis Vezina, Production Fragmentation, Upstreamness, and Value-Added: Evidence from Factory Asia 1990 2005, IDE Discussion Paper, 535, 2015. Krugman, Paul R., Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade, American Economic Review, 70, 1980, pp. 950 959. Johnson, Robert C., Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research, Journal of Economics Perspectives, 28(2), 2014, pp. 119 142., and Guillermo Noguera, Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added Over Four Decades, NBER Working Paper, No. 18186, 2012. Los, Bart, Marcel P. Timmer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, How Global are Global Value Chains? A New Approach to Measure International Fragmentation, Journal of Regional Science, 55(1), 2015, pp. 66 92. 29
Markusen, James R., Expansion of Trade at the Extensive Margin: A General Gains-from- Trade Result and Illustrative Examples, Journal of International Economics, 89(1), 2013, pp. 262 270. Melitz, Marc J., The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Econometrica, 71(6), 2003, pp. 1695 1725. Miller, Ronald E., and Umed Temurshoev, Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industries/Countries in World Production, International Regional Science Review, 2015, published online before print. Timmer, Marcel P., Abdul Azeez Erumban, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, Slicing up Global Value Chains, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2),2014, pp. 99 118., Erik Dietzenbacher, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input Output Database: The Case of Global Automotive Production, Review of International Economics, 23, 2015, pp. 575 605. 30 /2016.7
1 3 1 6 A-1(a) 2000 2000 3 4 6 4 3 A-1(b) 31
A-1 WIOD 32 /2016.7
2 1 5 24 extensive margin intensive margin Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein [2008] Markusen [2013] 25 R&D servicification 2 2 26... 24 25 Bernard et al. [2007] 26 1995 2000 2005 2005 33
A-2 WIOD 27 A-2 4 2 1995 2008... 27 WIOD previous year s price: PYP PYP 1998 PYP 1997 1997 PYP 1996 PYP 1995 34 /2016.7