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3 4 1 4 1 15 6 2 TA University of Texas, Austin University of New Mexico 2-2 -
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1 9 1989 90-48 -
2 1921 The Government of Ireland Act 3 3 7-49 -
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Arend Lijphart 1984Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-one CountriesYale University Press David Fromkin. 1999.KOSOVO CROSSING. The Free Press. 2001 1999 1999 1999 1998 1994 SamuelP.Huntington1996 1998-54 -
(1988) (1) (1990) (2) - 55 -
(3) - - 3 PTA PTA 1 (social capital) -1. Coleman(1988)Putnam(1993) - 56 -
(4) Coleman Putnam Coleman(1988) (5) Putnam Coleman Putnam (6) Putnam (7) Putnam Putnam -2. Lazarsfeld (8) - 57 -
(1986) (9) 1983 JES Lazarsfeld ( ) (10) Putnam Putnam (11) - 58 -
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1 0 1 -. 7 8 7 8 7 7 0.45 2 0.83 0.027-65 -
-3. 0.36 0.14 0.1-66 -
(14) - (1) (2) (3) (4) - 2 2 - - 67 -
2 Putnam Putnam (1) 1988 P92 (2) 1990 3 (3) JEDS2000 (4) James S. Coleman 1988 Social Capital in the Creation of Human CapitalThe University of Chicago Coleman Putnam (5) James S. Coleman (6) D 2001 NTT P216 (7) - 68 -
(8) F 1987 15 (9) 1986 5 (10) F P210 1940 (11) 231 (12) 1979 (13) D P115 (14) - 69 -
- 70 -
1. 1971 2000-71 -
2., 2001 2-1. (Butler & Stokes, 1974) 72
Carmines&Stimson 1980 93 1998 JESII 2 3 2-2. 96 2 2 73
, 2000a 96 3. 2 2.2 3-1. 74
4 E(U A t+1)e(u B t+1) +, 1968 RPBC R B E(U A t+1) E(U B t+1) P C 75
76 D D D 50 A.,1980 Riker&Ordeshook, 1968 D
3-2.,1988 5 1971 2000 20 71 77
20 4 80 86 2 4. 78
1.1 4-1. 2.1 2.4 2.1 0.702 0.132 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 0 r=0.165 r0.702 (%) r 0.132 79
80
0.7 2.2 2.3 0 10 4-2. 0.74 4-1 2.1 1.2 0.13 81
1.1 1.2 0.54 0.76 0.54 0.76 0.39 0.12 0.39 0.12 46.69 0.01 46.63 0.01 0.74 0.87 0.61 0.89 8.69 0.15 8.74 0.16 0.83 0.82 0.28 0.86 R 2 0.45 R 2 0.45 Interaction term 4-3. 1.3 2 1.1 1.2 82
1.3 0.18 0.93 3.25 0.38 0.08 0.62 1.29 0.09 33.43 0.17 52.98 0.12 3.78 0.42 10.94 0.33 9.68 0.06 10.06 0.30 R ( 0.72 R ( 0.41 ) ) 5. 4 23 7 4 1.83.6 83
(1) Markus1979 (2) A B (3) (4), 1990 (5), 1988 (6) 84
(7) 71/6, 72/12, 74/7, 76/12, 77/7, 79/10, 80/6, 83/6&12, 86/7, 89/7, 90/2, 92/7, 93/7, 95/7, 96/10, 98/7,2000/6 3 6 7 2.5 2 3 2.5 7 5 (8),1995 (9) 0 1 (10) (11) Interaction term (12) 1.1 1.2 0 85
1995 1988 1998 2001 1989 1990 2001. 1980 David Butler and Donald Stokes. 1974. Political change in Britain/ the evolution of electoral choice: London Macmillan. Gregory B.Markus. 1979. Analizing panel date: Beverly Hills, Calif :Sage Publication. James A.Stimson and Edward G.Carmines. 1989. Issue evolution/ race and the transformation of American politics: Princeton University Press. Mark Rodeghier 1996 SPSS William H.Riker and Peter C.Ordeshook. 1968. "A theory of the Calculas of Voting" American Political Science Review, 62: 25-42. 86
EU EU 1. European Coal and Steal Community: ECSC 1952 European Union: 2 2000 Ronald Inglehart 87
1978 59% 62% 1 70 68% 69% 10 3 1981 76 4 1986 68 2 EU 2 3 4 5 6 2. 2 2 88
1993 2 2 20 1993 3. EU 3 89
3-1 3-1 2 32 2 2 2 EU 3-2 90
EU EU Common Agricultural Policy: CAP 4 CAP EU EU 5 Democratic Deficit 91
2000 2000 2 4. 4-1. EU Eurobarometer54 2000 1112 EU 4-1 3-1 4 (1) EU15 2 EU G8 92
4 11 6 (2) EU EU 4 8 41 2 7 (3) 7 EU 41 93
4-2. Eurobarometer54 8 EU EU EU 7 4 Eurobarometer54 9 EU Eurobarometer54 EU 10 01 2 5-1 5-3 4 1 11 0 5-2 5-4 11 1 4 0 2 2 94
2 5-1 5-4 EU 1978 EU EU 65 2000 GDP 11 1978 EC EC EU 1999 EU 95
12 5. 4 11 5-1 5-2 4 11 4 11 4 11 5-3 5-4 4 11 2 5-1 5-2 96
5-1 t (EU4)* 1.04.35 1.84 2.94 0.02 (EU15) 0.15 0.17 0.24 0.88 0.41 ** -48.98 14.48-2.06-3.38 0.01 3.15 1.20 0.48 2.62 0.04 1.54 1.39 0.19 1.11 0.30 0.37 0.16 0.60 2.34 0.05 0.74 0.59 0.29 1.25 0.25 Eurobarometer54 R.953 5-2 t (EU11) * -1.04 0.35-2.96-2.94 0.02 (EU15) 1.19 0.41 1.93 2.91 0.02 ** 48.98 14.48 2.06 3.38 0.01 3.15 1.20 0.48 2.62 0.04 1.54 1.39 0.19 1.11 0.30 0.37 0.16 0.60 2.34 0.05 0.74 0.59 0.29 1.25 0.25 Eurobarometer54 R.953 97
5-3 t EU (EU4)* 0.01 0.94 0.02 0.01 0.99 EU (EU15) 0.17 0.24 0.18 0.73 0.49 ()** -9.89 34.54-0.42-0.29 0.78 2.87 1.57 0.44 1.83 0.11 0.68 2.20 0.08 0.31 0.77 0.51 0.16 0.84 3.30 0.01 1.34 0.52 0.53 2.56 0.04 Eurobarometer54 R.896 5-4 t EU (EU11) * -0.01 0.94-0.03-0.01 0.99 EU (EU15) 0.18 0.96 0.20 0.19 0.85 () ** 9.89 34.54 0.42 0.29 0.78 2.87 1.57 0.44 1.83 0.11 0.68 2.20 0.08 0.31 0.77 0.51 0.16 0.84 3.30 0.01 1.34 0.52 0.53 2.56 0.04 Eurobarometer54 R.896 98
6. G EU Eurobarometer54 EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU 99
(1) Eurobarometer542000 4 ICPSR (2) Silent Revolution R. 1978 12 (3) 1999 EU GNP EU 2001 (4) EU CAP 41.7 40.2 (5) Eurobarometer54 EU 6 EU (6) 11 (7) 3 EU (8) EU EU EU EU 100
EU 1. 2. 3. (9) EU 1. 2. 3. (10) EU 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. (11) http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/ 100 basic indicators from Eurostat Yearbook 2001 (12) http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/,r. 1977 1978 R.,R. 1990 1993 2000EU 2000 EU 21 101
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Vol.5 2001 2002 3 20 [ ] 2001 602-8580 Tel075-251-3597E-mailynishiza@mail.doshisha.ac.jp HPhppt://www1.doshisha.ac.jp/~ynishiza/index.html Copyright 2002 Nishizawa Seminar Printed in Japan