OECD 1
(OECD) OECD 30 OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD 2
OECD OECD 2003 10 21 OECD MLIT 19956000 2007 5 14192026 OECD 3
4
Disaster Management Council Technical Investigation Committees MLIT Yves Kovacs Ulf Bjurman Reza Lahidji OECD Reza Lahidji OECD Ulf Bjurman Nikolaï Malyshev OECD Pierre Alain Schieb OECD Barrie Stevens Anita Gibson Lucy Lrawcsyk Jack Radisch Jenny Leger OECD OECD.. OECD 5
(OECD)... 2... 3... 6... 10... 14... 15... 27 1.... 28 2.... 28 3.... 29 4.... 31 5.... 32 6.... 32 7.... 33... 34... 35 1.... 36 2.... 40 3.... 44... 46... 47 1.... 48 2.... 51... 56... 57 1.... 58 2.... 64 3.... 67... 69 6
... 71 1.... 72 2.... 76 3.... 78... 80... 81 1.... 82 2.... 84 3.... 86... 88.1. (EPTB)... 89.2.... 90.3.... 91.4.... 92.5. (ICPR)... 93.6.... 95.7.... 97.8.... 98.9.... 99.10.... 100.11... 101.12.... 109... 110... 112... 113... 122 1.... 123 2.... 124 3.... 125... 126 7
... 127 1.... 128 2.... 132 3.... 134... 137... 139 1.... 140 2.... 145... 148 1.... 149 2.... 152... 154... 155 1.... 156 2.... 158 3.... 160... 162... 163 1.... 164 2.... 166... 169.1... 170.2.... 172.3.... 182.4.... 183... 185 3.1. 3.1... 50 3.2. 3.2 CEMAGREF... 55 4.1... 63 8
6.1.... 85 8.1.... 130 8.2.... 135 9.1... 143 10.1.... 154 11.1.... 159 1.1. 2000 2004... 32 6.1. 1989 1999 10 ( 2000 )... 86 9.1. 2007 3... 141 10.1.... 149 1.1.... 28 1.2.... 29 1.3.... 30 1.4.... 30 1.5.... 31 1.6.... 31 1.7. 1975 2003... 33 2.1.... 36 2.2....37 2.3.... 38 2.4.... 39 2.5. The River Law with Commentary by Article... 41 2.6.... 44 3.1.... 51 3.2.... 52 3.3.... 56 4.1.... 58 9
4.2.... 60 4.3.... 60 4.4.... 61 4.5... 64 5.1...73 I.3.1.... 91 I.5.1. ICPR (ICPR, 2002)... 94 I.6.1.... 95 7.1.... 123 7.2. 1923... 124 8.1.... 135 9.1.... 142 9.2.... 146 10.1.... 150 10.2.... 152 10
AIST: ANSI/NFPA: / Bank of Japan: BCP: BS: BZK: CalARP: CAO: CAT: CCS: CDF: CDMC: CEMAGREF: CND Plan: DEFRA: DHI: Diet: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University: DSB: EC: EEA: EPTB: ESPACE: European Spatial Planning Adapting to Climate Events FDMA: FEMA: GBP: UK GDP: GEONET: GPS GNP: 11
GSI: HERP: HIC: International Conference on Hydro-informatics ICHARM: ICPR: ICT: IDI: ( ) IPPC: Japanese Red Cross Society: JMA: JPY: MLIT: NCC: NFIP: NFPA: NGO: NIED: NVC: OECD: PES: PRP: PWRI: RIA: RMS: Risk Management Solutions SME: Swedish Rescue Services Agency: UK: UNEP: UNESCO: UN/SDR: UN/WWAP: USA: 12
13
14
OECD 4 3 550 1 1. 2001 15
1. 2. 16
OECD 2. 3. 10 1990 17
3. 2 1. (JMA) (IPCC) 4. 18
2. ( ) 5. 3 1. 30 200 19
4 IPCC 6. 2. ( ) 20
7. 3. OECD 8. 4 1. 21
24 22
9. 2. 10. 3. 23
2005 11. 1. 1998 12. 24
2. 13. 3. OECD 25
14. 26
27
378 000 km 2 70 1 2 75 540 1 1.1., 2007 5, 28
173 1 140 100 ( GNP 20 ) 2 6 7 30 50mm 5 100mm 20 1.2., 2007 5, (IPCC) 100 60cm 50 ( ) 29
(OECD 2008) 100 1 10 10 10 1.3., 2007 5, ( 1.4 ) 1.4., 2007 5, 30
100 30 1 4 3 1 ( 1.5 ) 1.5. (m), 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 1.6. 1,440km 1953 () 6,018km 1947 () 55,400km 1946 ( ) 21,750km 1861 (), 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 2004 10 3 1947 1,930 12 1959 5,000 4 31
1.1. 2000 2004 2000 9 990 2001 7** 18 2004 7 18 2004 9 21 2004 9 22 2004 10 23 2004 10 12,500ha 5,800 212km/h 160km/h 162km/h 229km/h 23,210 279 1.95 20 1 3.59 7.17 41 4* 291 798 26 1 241 603 7 4 1.12 3.2 94 3 ** Swiss R., 2001, 2005 32
1.7. 1975 2003 ( ) 2005 (2005.5) ( OECD ) 1959 1961 33
1. : (MLIT) (2005): OECD. 2. : 2007 5 15 OECD 3., 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 4. :, 2007, 34
35
2001 2.1 2.1. Weets, Guy,, DG INFSO ICT,, 2007.5.31 2001 36
2.2 2.2.,, 2007, 2001 I.2 (,, 2007, ) 1 2.3 ( ) ( ) 37
2.3.,, 2007, 2001 1 38
2.4. (9), 2006 9, Rivers in Japan CDMC CDMC 10 39
OECD 1. ( )1961 2 40
1947 1964 1997 1949 2005 2.5., 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 41
109 7 ( ) 4 5 6 7 18 3 23 42
43
(.1 ) 2. 2005 6,390 1996 2.6 3 2.6., 2007.11, River Administration in Japan 44
1996 1990 2002 1990 716 1999 2003 4,600 4 2002 45
5 3. 1. :,, 2007, 2. :,, 2007,,, 2006, 3. :, 2007, 4. :, 2007, 5. : UN/ISDR, Geneva, 2004. 46
47
(JMA) ( ) www.river.go.jp 10 1,300 2000 (PWRI) (ICHARM) 2005 48
(CMDC) 24 2007PF PF (IPCC).3 3.1 49
4. 3.1. 1995 ( GIS ) 2002 2006 2000 (50) Andrew P. Bradbury, Channel Coastal Observatory 2007, 50
OECD ()( 3.1 ) 4 3.1., 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 51
3.2. 0.5m 1m 2m 5m 5m, 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 1 GNP 52
( 4 ) 2 ( ) 53
.4 ( ) ( 3 ) 100 10 2008 2012 3000 ( ) 2 3.2 54
5. CEMAGREF CEMAGREF TOP (TOP= 50 100)(TOP=1000) (TOP=1) DHI MIKE Module TAL TOP TAL 55
3.3. (TAL) 2006 7 DHI Eau & Environnement S. Mejdi 1. IDI 1,822 700 2. :http://www.eptb loire.fr/publications/newsletter/nl5.htm,accessed in February 2008. 56
57
4.1. ( ), 2007,, Comprehensive Flood Management in Japan o o o o 58
o o : : : : 59
4.2., 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 4.3. 2000 7 ( 2 ) 2002 6 ( 2 ), 2006 9, Rivers in Japan ( 4.4 ): 60
( ) 4.4., 2007,, Comprehensive Flood Management in Japan 6.3km 10m 2002 6 48 141mm 2000 7 2000 236 1 10 61
1997 100 200 21 30 40 30 100 5 10 ( ) 59.1 2 2006 9 12,000km 100 13 1585 3 200 14,800 m 3 /s 3,900 m3 1970 2004 400 7,000 m 3 /s 4 62
IPCC 4.1 4.1. IPCC 2008 3, 2008 3 11,, 63
( 4.5 ) 5 4.5., 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 6. 64
() NGO 6 3 ( ) 10 7 39 1 8 1997 3 20 2007 3 65 9 65
10 70 OECD ( ) 5 66
7. 1999 ()3 67
1991 10 2002 60 ( ) 50 75 (2010 ) 50 100 11 1999 11 68
10 30 8. 1. :, 2006 9, Rivers in Japan 2. :, 2007, River Administration in Japan 3. : 2007 5 15 OECD 4. : OECD, 2007 5 17 5.,, 2004, Life and Livelihood boudn to the Earth: A vision for the regeneration of the Trumi River Basin 6. : 2007 5 14 OECD 69
2007 5 16 OECD 7. : 2007 5 14 OECD 8. : 2007 5 14 OECD 9. : 2007 5 18 OECD 10. : 2007 5 16 OECD 11. : Baden Wurttemberg Umweltministerium, 2007 1, Hochwasservorsorge in Baden Wurttemberg: Anforderungen an Anlagen zum Umgang mit wassergefahrdenden Stoffen,, 70
71
1 24 2 9 72
5.1 5.1. (2004 ) (2005 14 ), 2006 5, OECD ( ) (1,940 )(558 ) 3 73
OECD 74
28.6.7 ( ) () 75
9. 2005 248 940 ( ) 6 10 30 40 76
3 1,800 90 50 12m ( ) 4 23 ( ) FAX 5 3 77
10. OECD () (ICT) 1975 2003 3.3 15.8 1975 61 341 5 OECD 6 65 2002 3 7 78
2005 200 2 5m 20 50 187 600 20 20 200 26,000 58 8 OECD 11. 79
1. :, 2007, 2. OECD 3. 2007 5 15 4. : 2007 5 16 OECD 5. : 2007 5 17 OECD 6. :, 2005 7. : www.grid.unep.ch/activities/global_change/atlas/pdf/reagir_changements%20climatiques.pdf, acccessed 2008 7 8. : 2007 5 16 OECD 80
81
1998 2004 1 2005 BCP BCP ( civil forces?) ( civil forces?) 2 82
(civil security forces?) Civil security forces NGO 12. 83
5 1964 1997 1961 2001 1995 3 2007 4 84
(.9 ) 6.1 2007 6 7 a. b. i. ii. c. d. e. 2007 6 7 DEFRA, 2007 8 8, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk 13. 85
70 3 4 23 (1,030 ) 1991 (5700 ) 5 1989 1999 10 ( ) 0.03 6.1. 1989 1999 10 ( ) ( ) 1992 20,800 36,600 0.57 1994 17,600 50,600 0.35 1991 6,900 12,700 0.54 1990 Winterstorm 6,800 9,100 0.75 Daria 1989 6,300 12,700 0.50 1999 Winterstorm 5,900 11,100 0.53 Lothar 1987 Winterstorm 4,700 5,600 0,84 1998 3,500 10,300 0.34 86
1995 3,400 112,100 0.03 1999 3,400 5,000 0.60 :, 2000 70 OECD 35% 40% 6 OECD 95 ( 40 ) 7 87
.10 ( ) OECD 14. 1. :, 2007, 2. :, 2007, 3. :, 2007, 4. : : 2007, 2008 6 28 5. : 2007 5 18 OECD 2007 5 18 6. OECD(2003), 7. : 2007 5 18 ( ) OECD 88
. (EPTB) 1990 1992 EPTB EPTB Loire SEPIA Conseils, 2007, Apprendre a vivre avec les inondations, Les EPTB, un moteur d innovation. 89
. (CCS) * * * * * 1. CCS, weside: http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/secretariats/civil_contingencies.apsx 90
. ESPACE 2003 : the Bayerisches Landesmat für Umwelt and Wasserwirtschaftsamt Bad Kissingen. I.3.1. : ESPACE(2008). 91
. 1991 105 (2) 1/100 (1 )100 1999 1 1 5km A1 A3 ( )A122,000 A38,000 : United Kingdom National Press Office (2004) 92
. (ICPR) 1950 ICPR 1. 200510202025 2. 200530cm 2020 70cm 3. 2000502005100 4. 2000502005100 24 36 72 624 1997 50 ftp 93
I.5.1. ICPR (ICPR, 2002) HQ10 HQ100 0.5m 2.0m 4.0m 4m : Harm Oterdoom, 2001, 94
95. I.6.1. :, /
(DCC) DCC (NCC) (NVC) (Ministry of BZK) 96
. EU : Geovernment office of Sweden(2007) 97
. <www.prim.net> : Camphuis, Nicolas Gerard: 98
. : (2000) 99
.10 (FEMA) (NFIP) Write Your Own (WYO) NFIP FEMA NFIP NFIP 25 NFIP NFIP WYO 1978 140 2006 550 (PRP)PRP 1980 100 PRP PRP WYO PRP 1990 13 2002 22 25 (100 ) FEMA : (2006) 100
.11 A.1. A.1.a. A.1.b. 101
A.1.c. 20 10 20 A.2. A.2.a A.2.b 102
A.3. A.3.a A.3.b. 103
A.4. A.5. A.5.a A.5.b 104
A.5.c. A.6. A.7. A.7.a. 105
A.7.b A.8. B.1. 106
B.2. B.2.a. B.2.b. B.3. B.3.a. B.3.b. 107
B.4. B.5. B.6. B.7. B.7.a 10 10 B.7.b 108
.12 (ICHARM) 109
2007 DHI Eau & Environnement, 7th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, HIC 2006, Nice, FRANCE. FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT BASED ON METHODE INONDABILITE French Ministry of Land Use Planning and Environment. Major Risks Prevention Bureau. April 2000, Pierre A. Vidal Naquet and Francis Calvet, A L EPREUVE D UNE CATASTROPHE. Les inundations de novembre 1999 dans le midi de la France IDI Water Series No.4, February 1999, supervised by River Bureau, Ministry of Construction, JAPAN, compiled and commented by Toshikatsu Omachi (IDI), published by the Infrastructure Development Institute. THE RIVER LAW WITH COMMENTARY BY ARTICLE, Legal Framework for River and Water Management in Japan, Japan. (2004): 2003,. (MLIT) (2005): OECD. (MLIT)(2007)Existing Conditions and Tasks of River Administration in terms of Flood Control. (MLIT) (2007) 7 OECD The Review of Floods in Japan. (MLIT) (2008)Adaptation measures related to water related disasters to reduce the impacts of climate change due to global warming. (2007) 7 OECD The review of process of Floods and Earthquakes in Japan. (2000) 1968 6 15 100. 2006 6 8 61. (n.a.): River Administration in Japan, www.mlit.go.jp/river/english/admin.html, 2005 8 3. OECD (2003): A Methodological Framework for Evaluating Risk Management Policies, background document for the first meeting of the Project Steering Group, 3 November 2003. OECD (2006 a): Information security in Norway. OECD Risk Management Studies, OECD, Paris. OECD (2006 b): Risk Management Policies in Japan concerning large scale floods, OECD Study in Risk Management, OECD, Paris. 110
OECD. 9th Working Party on Global and Structural Policies SCEERING STUDY: RANKING PORT CITIES WITH HIGH EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES. INTERIM ANALYSIS EXPOSURE ESTIMATES UN/WWAP(United Nations/World Water Assessment Programme).,2003. 1st UN World Water Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life. Paris, New York and Oxford. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) and Berghahn Books., Pilot Case Studies,; a focus on real world examples. Greater Tokyo Japan. 111
112
4 (/OECD 2002) ( Safety Regions 2004) 113
1. OECD OECD DSB 2. OECD (RIA) 2004 3 RIA RIA 2002 PES 114
3. () 115
4. 5. 2006 10 116
OECD (OECD 2005a) 6. 18 8 10 117
( ) 7. 10 (pp.26,28.) CalARP OECD 118
8 OECD ( 1 2 ) 9 (SME) 119
10 120
11 2 1966 2007 2005 20% 12. 121
122
4 / 8 1 1 3 90 150 200km 7.1. 1885 1995, 20km 123
2000 110 1995 7 2004,2005 200 300 8 7 1923 9 1 1 12 105,000 ( (2007). ) 7.2. 1923, 1923. (Reischauer 1953) 1960 9 1 2 2 1 17 5 46 7.3 124
150 6 6,400 32 40 10 1995 1 23 85% ( ) 2.5 4 10 GDP 2.5% 2004 10 23 6.8 7 40 3 10 50 1964 1.7G 2 442 23 125
(HERP) 2 8 30 87% 1854 100 150 (CDMC) 9,200 260,000 37 GDP 7.2% 3 1944 1946 1000 30 60 70% 50 90% 8.1 50% 80 90% 8.4 17,800 57 GDP 11% 4 OECD 4 1. 2. 2 1 3. 2003 3 4. 2003 9 126
127
1961 () 3 2 1947 1978 1995 128
3 1 3 ( 8.1 ) 1,940 558 6 18 3 23 129
8.1. 2 47 3000 12 610,000 80,000 km 2 2,000 km 2 3.5 200 1,400 km 2 1.3 km 2 OECD 70% 2002 2000 1000 1991 GDP 15% 2003 40% OECD (OECD, 2005) 130
2006 600 4 / (OECD 2002) ( Safety Regions 2004) 131
1. 10 OECD 2001 1 (1) (2)(3) (4) 2001 1 4 (MLIT) ( ) OECD 132
2 1 2006 ( 2 ) 2008 4 ( ) () OECD 3 133
4 3 OECD DSB 2. 1960 1990 1990 9% 4.5% 2002 ( ) 134
2005 2007 3,300 3 1 8.2 8.2. 1990 10 2002 GDP 8.2% GDP 150% () 5 GDP 38% () : OECD (2006a). 3% 5% 2020 8.1 8.1. (2005). 135
1 2002 4 (PES) PES PES PES ( ) 2400km 2.4 (GDP 0.5%) 2005 2008 3 55km 136
( 3 1 ) 30 6 2 26% 89% 3% 37% 3 3 96% 53 4 OECD (RIA) 2004 3 RIA RIA PES PES 3. 1. (2003) A 4 29 30 2. 137
3. 4. 138
139
GPS 200 180 JMA 600 JMA GSI, GEONET GPS 1,231 GPS 20km GPS GPS GSI 3 1cm (NIED, ) 3 K NET() 1000 Hi net () 750 F net () 70 (AIST, )( ) 140
9.1. 2007 3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.. 7. 6.7 8. TYPE2 20 9. 10 2 10. 11. 2,800 (HERP) () 1995 7 HERP 1999 98 141
2005 9.1 9.1. HERP http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index e,html. 4 142
1995 2004 ( 9.1 ) 9.1. 50% 60 80 50 6 60 2 10 OECD 2004 143
1990 Wisner Uitto 1996 23 65 GIS () 4. 144
1985 9 1 1982 6 500 1% 1991 22.9% 8.4% 145
( 9.2 ) 9.2. (2006), 14 ( 3 1 ) 146
5. 147
148
1981 1995 10 12,000 90,000 25% 40 10.1 10.1. 1982 48 797 37.7 1981 27 126 20.9 75 923 58.6 45 041 34.8 1981 8 595 6.6 53 636 41.4 MEXT (2007). 1990 ( 2005) 1998 2001 2005 149
9,170 1996 2000 1,432 1 2003 25% 1981 1150 10.1. 40 35 30 25 20 15 trend 10 government objective 5 0 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 (2005). 2002 2005 / 2006 15% 150 Spence (2004), 2002 150
( 2001) 1981 20 Whittaker 1998 ( 2005, p.47) 2006 15m/s M7.3 11,000 10 75% 90%30% 60 40% 151
OECD (OECD 2005a) 6. 1 2,800 2005 1 km 2 340 1 km 2 13,000 OECD 10.2 10.2. (2004). CND 152
18 8 7 ( 2005 pp.7,8) ( 10.1 ) 153
10.1. 1972 Alquisito Priolo 1000 50 20m 10 ( ) 7. 10 1. : 154
155
175 82 2004 12 8,000 m 3 (UNEP, 2005) 2005 30,000 m 3 2007 7 16 3 OECD 3 156
(Uitto, 1998) 1 2005 Cruz 2007 CalARP 1998 (CalARP, 2004) 157
( (2005), pp.26, 28) CalARP OECD 8 OECD 2,000 80% (RMS, 2005) OECD 158
( 11.1 ) 11.1. HB 221 HB 221 1994 / (ANSI/NFPA 1600) NFPA 1995 2000 2004 9/11 BS 25999 2006 (BS 25999 1 ) 2007 2 Standards Australia (www.standards.org.au) American National Standards Institute (www.ansi.org) British Standards Institution (http://www.bsi global.com/) 2005 2007 2008 BCP ( 2005, p.34.)bcp 159
OECD ( 1 2 ) 9 (SME) OECD 160
300,000 5 6 2 ( 28 ) ( 2 1 ) 2 / / 161
OECD 10 1. 162
163
OECD ( 84 ) 1995 3 16 2 4 9000 15 20 3 15 49,000 164
12 2005) ( ) ( 2005, p.46, ) 2001 165
3 2 11 1 1990 166
(Petak, William J., 2000, p. 10.) 25 3 (Ibid) / 2001 1. 2. 3. 30% 50% 5,000 1,000 4. 3 5. 6. 7. 1 5 2 1966 2007 () 7.7% 2008 4 5.5 167
2007 12 1,100 2005 20% (, 2006) 2004 4 (CDF) 2006 3 2 2 168
12 1. 70% 169
. 170
171
. 83 A.1. A.1.a. 172
A.1.b. A.1.c. 10 10 A.2. 173
A.2.a A.2.b A.3. A.3.a 174
A.3.b. A.3.c. 175
A.3.d. 10 A.4. A.4.a A.4.b. A.4.c. 176
A.4.d. 10 A.5. A.5.b. 10 20 A.6. A.6.a 177
NGO B. B.1. B.2. B.2.a. 179
B.2.b. B.3. B.3.a. B.3.b. B.4. 180
B.5. B.6. B.7. B.7.a 10 10 B.7.b 181
. 182
. 2007 11 Alexandre MARTEL Agent responsible de la politique intégrée de gestion du risque Division de la Planification Stratégique Sécurité publique Canada Philippe THOMPSON Directeur Division de la Planification Stratégique Sécurité publique Canada Niels JACOBSEN Head of Section Danish Emergency Management Agency Niels MADSEN Senior Advisor Danish Emergency Management Agency Dorte JUUL MUNCH Head of Section Civil Sector Preparedness Division Danish Emergency Management Agency Henrik Grosen NIELSEN Head of Division Emergency Management Division Ministry of the Interior and Health Jean-Claude EUDE Directeur Déveloment et Relations extérieures stablissement Public Loire Luigi D ANGELO Department for Civil Protection Prime minister s office Agostino MIOZZO Minister Plenipotentiary Presidency of the Council of Ministers 183
Hilde Bostr m LINDLAND Senior Engineer/Project Manager Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning (DSB) Ministry of Justice and the Police Minga ORKAN Deputy Director Social Services Alf ROSEBERG Project Leader Swedish Rescue Services Agency Jim SANDKVIST Director SSPA John TESH Deputy Director Respresenting Bruce MANN Director, Capabilities Civil Contingencies Secretariat Cabinet Office Tina GABBRIELLI () Acting Director Office of Risk Management and Analysis National Protection and Programs Directorate US Department of Homeland Security 184
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