2 79 4 (2014.1) 1. G7 G8 G20 1930 stabilizer 1 1 社会政治経済
3 1 2. 2 IT 1970 1990 1970 1990 1990 1989 91 92 1989 92 91 1971 IT
4 1970 1970 90 1970 80 10 10 2 GDP 1950 5.5, 1973 10.5, 90 12.7, 2000 18.8 GDP 1945 4.9, 60 6.4, 80 25.2, 90 48.6, 2000 92.0 3 100 1970 1980 2 82 85 80 1970 1978 3 4 1980
5 1 A. GDP % 1950 60 1960 73 1973 79 1979 89 1989 99 2000 10 3.1 3.0 2.4 1.7 2.7 3.8 2.5 2.5 3.0 1.9 EU 4.8 4.4 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.4 7.5 4.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 0.9 4.5 5.3 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.3 2.4 3.1 1.5 2.4 1.9 1.6 8.5 9.2 3.6 4.0 1.6 1.0 4.7 3.8 3.3 6.1 6.3 3.8 4.4 7.1 6.9 10.8 3.9 3.2 2.6 5.6 5.5 7.9 4.6 4.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.6 B. GDP % 1950 60 1960 73 1973 79 1979 89 1989 99 2000 10 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.7 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 EU 4.2 3.5 2.1 2.0 1.6 0.8 6.9 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.9 3.6 4.3 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.7 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 7.3 8.1 2.4 3.1 1.4 0.9 2.6 1.7 1.7 4.7 4.3 1.7 3.1 5.6 5.8 10.2 2.0 1.0 0.7 3.5 3.6 6.2 2.7 3.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.4 EU 1950 73 12 15 27 Maddison 2006, World Bank, World Development Report OECD, Historical Statistics, Main Economic Indicators. IMF, World Economic Outlook 1991 1980 1 1970 2 3 79 89 5.6 1989 99 5.5 1990 80 Rodrick and Subaramanian 2005 80 5 2014 80 1980 70
6 3. 1970 50 6 TFP TFP 7 1970 1 GDP 1990 1970 1960 8 1960 70 20
7 Gordon 2012 1 1750 1830 1870 1900 2 100 2 1950 70 Gordon 2012 1970 2 3 IT 1960 1980 90 1970 1990 IT 9 IT David 1990 IT 1990 90 10 IT David 1990 2000 IT 11 Fernald 2014 TFP 1990 2003 1973 95 IT 90 1980 20 1980 GDP 1980 2 20 2
8 2 GDP % 1960 2008 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 製造業 金融 保険等 3 % 1960 2008 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 製造業 金融 2003 2010 2000 3 4 GDP 1980 1990
300 4 /GDP % 1960 2010 9 250 200 150 100 50 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 アメリカイギリスユーロ圏ドイツ日本 IMF, International Financial Statistics, CD-ROM 2000 2000 IT IT GDP 8 2011 5,868 1,344 1,208 895 12 1 2 2 3 13
10 4. 14 5 19 20 1980 Big Divergence Big Convergence 15 5 1900 2000 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 GDP Rhode and Toniolo 2006, Figure1.1
11 IT IT IT 25 6 1 % 1914 2010 20 15 10 5 0 1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 日本 アメリカフランスイギリス (Ⅰ) イギリス (Ⅱ)
12 1980 16 1 6 1 7 1980 17 7 8 3 18 7 1 % 1921 2011 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 インドネシアインドシンガポールアルゼンチン中国 6, 7 Paris School of Economics, The World Top Incomes Database, http://topincomes.g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/#database
13 8, 9 1960 8 % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 アメリカイギリス日本フランスドイツ 9 % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 アメリカイギリス日本フランスドイツ 8, 9 OECD, Historical Statistics 1960 1990, 1970 2000
14 1960 1 1960 2 6 4 19 4 1 2 3 4 20 4 1 2 3 4 IT
15 IT IT Gordon 2012 IT IT 21 1980 1980 22 1980 23 24
16 5. 25 1 IT 2 10 2015 20 11 10 * 200 (2000 年 =100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 中国 日本 韓国 インド インドネシア タイ ヴェトナム
11 * 17 160 (2000 年 =100) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 日本フランスドイツアメリカイギリス * 10, 11 15 64 2010 26 10
18 Rodrick 2012 27 3 3 20 6. 1970 80 IT IT IT IT 1980 IT
19 1 Kindleberger 1973 2 Epstein 2005 Dore 2008 3 Crafts 2006, Table 2.1, p. 22 4 2002 2012 2002 4 5 Rodrick and Subaramanian 2005 TFP 1990 80 6 Boltho 1982, Boltho and Toniolo 1999, pp. 13 14 1999 4 7 TFP 1 2 8 Boltho 1982, pp. 24 26. Bernabè 1982, pp. 164 67. 1988 1999 9 Gordon 2012 Gordon 2002, 2006 10 Rhode and Toniolo 2006, pp. 10 11. Crafts 2006, pp. 35 36. 11 1 12 US International Services, Survey of Current Business, October 2012, p. 34. 13 Reinhart and Rogoff 2009, pp. 205 06. 14 2007 p. 40 15 Prichett 1997 1870 World Bank 2005 Fig. 4 1820 16 Boltho and Toniolo 1999, p. 8. 2007, p. 214 Atkinson, Piketty and Saez 2011 17 Spence 2011 18 2010 81 71 72 77 http://www.jil.go.jp/kokunai/statsitics/ databook/2012/ch.3.html 19 2011 9 8,704 5,868 5.9 3,930 4.0 2013 20 2007 p. 159 21 Atkinson, Piketty and Saez 2011 20 2 22 2007 p. 154 5 8 1970 80 1970 60 23 Temin 2006 GDP 24 2014 p. 193 25 Friedman 2006 26 Gordon 2012 6
20 27 Rodrick 2012 hyperglobalization 1980, 90 p. xvii Atkinson, A. B., T. Piketty and E. Saez 2011, Top Incomes in the Long Run of History, Journal of Economic Literature, 49 1. Bernabè, F. 1982, The Labour Market and Unemployment, A. Boltho ed., The European Economy, Growth and Crisis, Oxford University Press. Boltho A. 1982, Growth, A. Boltho ed., The European Economy, Growth and Crisis, Oxford University Press. Boltho A. and G. Toniolo 1999, The Assessment: The Twentieth Century Achievements, Failures, Lessons, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15 4. Crafts, N. 2006, The World Economy in the 1990s: a Long-run Perspective, P.W. Rhode and G. Toniolo eds., The Global Economy in the 1990s, A Long-run Perspective, Cambridge University Press. Dore, R. 2008, Financialization of the Global Economy, Industrial and Corporate Change, 17 6. Epstein, G. A. ed., 2005, Financialization and the World Economy, Edward Elgar. Fernald, J. G. 2014, Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 20248. Friedman, B. 2006, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, Vintage, 2011 Gordon, R. J. 2000, Does the New Economy Measure Up to the Great Innovation of the Past? Journal of Economic Perspective, 14 4. Gordon, R. J. 2006, The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection, P. W. Rhode and G. Toniolo eds., The Global Economy in the 1990s, A Long-run Perspective, Cambridge University Press. Gordon, R. J. 2012, Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18315. Kindleberger, Ch. P. 1973, The World in Depression 1929 1939, University of California Press, revised edition 1986. 1929 19391982 Maddison, A. 2006, The World Economy, OECD. Prichett, L. 1997, Divergence Big Time, Journal of Economic Perspective, 11 3. Reinhart, C. M. and K. S. Rogoff 2009, This Time is Different, Princeton University Press, BP 2011 Rhode P. W. and G. Toniolo eds. 2006, The Global Economy in the 1990s, A Long-run Perspective, Cambridge University Press. Rodrick. D. and A. Subaramanian 2005, From Hindu Growth to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition, IMF Staff Papers, 52 2. Rodrik, D. 2012, Globalization Paradox, Oxford University Press, 2013 Spence, M. 2011, The Impact of Globalization on Income and Employment, Foreign Affairs, 90 4. Temin, P. H. 2006, What is Happening to the Welfare State? P. W. Rhode and G. Toniolo eds., The Global Economy in the 1990s, A Long-run Perspective, Cambridge University Press. World Bank 2005, World Development Report 2006, Equity and Development, Oxford University Press, 2006 2006 1988 1999 2007 2007
21 2002 2012 2014