ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.94 by April 2004 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan
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Kosai et.al. (1998) 2003 Hotz, Klerman and Willis1996 The Economics of Fertility in Developed Countries Handbook of Population and Family Economics pp.275-347 Arroyo and Zhang(1997) Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey Journal of Population Economics, vol.10, pp.23-6 2002 2001 2002
2 1 5 6 1925 5.11 1939 3.74 1940 1947 1949 4.54 10 1957 2.04 replacement ratio 2.08 1966 2 1967 1 2 1971 1974 2 19 2 1870 7 3 demographic transition 1880 1920 37.3 2002 1920 1 8 5 2001 6 (total fertility rate) 15 49 1 7 1872 3480 1887 2002 8 2
19812001 1938 2 3 1 1947 1960 33.5 16.8 14.6 7.6 2 1 1970 2 the second demographic transition 9 1970 3 1950 4 1950 2 5 1960 4%1970 1 60 70 3 1960 20 90 2 70 90 3 1995 3 1975 10 2 3 9 2000 10 1992 1969 7074 7579 80 92 80 75 3 90 3
1995 2 3 1990 1 4 1980 90 3 5 11 1 1971 4 70 0.39 0.24 80 3 6 11 Crude Birth Rate Crude Marriage Rate
80 70 2024 6180 20 20 20 20 20 20 62 30 1 71 1990 20 30 90 30 2000 20 30 72 30 20 20 35 75 1996 12 8 12
49 1930 1950 1950 49 2 35 1965 35 1.46 1955 35 1.89 13 30 2 2001 3 32 6 1970 1970 3 80 97 0.26 1999 14 13 2001 2 30.53 3 32.59 4 34.33 14 1997 1.39 196570 0.26
3 31. Malthus 20011 1950 H. Leibenstein Becker R.A. Easterlin 2 1 9 1 H. Leibenstein 3 1 2
15 Becker(1960, 1991) Quality-Quantity Model Becker 16 30 2 2003 Becker Willis(1973) Willis 2003 28 34 8500 17 Willis 15 2001 3 2 16 17 2 3,800 2004 1 200 2,500
Becker and Lewis(1981)Becker (1988) Becker and Barro(1988) and Becker(1989) altruism 1992 Becker, Murphy and Tamura (1990) 18 Barro(1991) GDP 19 20 18 Lucas 1988 19 GDP 1960-85 GDP 60 GDP 20 Yamauchi and Senda (2003)1910
Schultz (1973) Human Capital Theory Theory of the Allocation of Time Household Production Function Easterlin(1969, 1973) 2 70 Becker1973 Becker
21 3 1 2 2 3 22 23 101 2 1977 2002 2 21 Becker 1999 22 23 2003
Easterlin(1969) 70 102 24 24 1999 3
3 2. (1) (2) (3) 25 (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 1 1 (1) (6) (7) (9) Butz and Ward 1 Butz and Ward(1979) f m m f m m W K Y Y K W K Y K Y K B ln ln ln ) (1 ln ln 3 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 γ γ γ γ β β β β + + + = + + + = B m Y f W K ( ) 2 4 3 0 0,, 0 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 < = > = > + = γ β γ β γ γ β Butz and Ward 25
Ogawa and Mason(1986) Butz and Ward Ogawa and Mason 26 1966 1983 Ohbuchi(1982, 1988), (1996) 1950 1983 1968 1994 2001 Butz and Ward 27 28 26 Kramer and Neusser (1984) 10 1 100 1 27 1999 28 2001
1993 10 1997 8 1 29 1 111 1564 30 2001 1564 64.4% 111 6 6 111 112 2 6 29 2 30 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 OECD 1981
2 31 Ohbuchi(1988) 1950 1983 19931960 1980 199270 85 32 1996 33 31 Ohbuchi (1982) 32 1960 60 33 1999 1998
1996 34 2000 35 1996 1993 1992 20 1999 Ohbuchi(1982) 1954 1980 36 34 1999 35 36
1999 Ohbuchi(1982) Ohbuchi(1988) 1998 1998 1998 2000 1999 19 25 2002 Heckman
37 38 1999 39 40 Ohbuchi (1988) 1996 2004 37 2003 38 39 1999 40 2000 1996
1999 1999 2 2000 41 1 1999 1 2 3 1 2 2 2 3 3 2000 41 Bivariate probit 2000
2529 2529 1999 58 5 0.09 3 0.18 2003 3 1999
1997 Oyama (2001)
4 (1) (2) (3) sample selection bias endogeneity bias 2004 42 42 1999 1993
2003 9 2 43 44 45 46 47 48 43 44 45 46 1992 1994 2003 3 3 3 47 2002 1998 48
1999 49 1996 Waldfogel1997 2001 1998 Waldfogel1997 50 1999 2000 1999 6 14 95.4% 1 2 1997a 02 0 49 1994 50 3
2001 4 1 2 1999 6 0 2000 1999
1995 51 52 53 16 6 54 90 92 1 94 99 40 3 6 2001 51 52 2003 1 2 1 1 5 3 1 1 53 3 1 2 3 54 2004 3 2003
2003 55 2004 3 2004 2010 56 5% 2010 1.51 0.21 2010 5% 2010 1.56 2015 55 1 56 2001 5
5 1980 80 90 1.57 2007 2 1945 200 121122 57 70 3 3 3 3 57 Kohler et. al. (2002) Lowest-Low Fertility
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2003 H11 008 pp.19-38. 1999 48 2 pp.32-36. 1996. (1997) 53 1 pp.3-20. 1998 54 1 pp.1-6. (2000). (2002). (2003) 1 59 1. 1999 34 4 pp.361-373. 1999 18 1 pp.40-46. (1996) = 52 2 pp.30-35. 2001. 2002
( H12- -027) 12. 2003 39 1 pp.55-69. 1997. 1993. 1981. 1998 54 1 pp.88-119. 1993. http://www1.ipss.go.jp/bunken/data/pdf/14209501.pdf. 1996 :. Mason, AndrewTuljapukar, ShripadLi, Nan2003. Decle, Robert(19921970 22 pp.16-76. 1998 40 pp.1-17. 1999 VAR H10- -032.
2000 56 1 pp.38-60. 2001. (2004). 2003. (1997)Economy, Society, Policy 306 pp.66-69.. 2003 2003. 2000. 1998 10. 2002 14. 200212.. (1989) 45 2 pp.15-34. (1995) 42 2 pp.9-14. (2003 14. 1996 45
3 4 pp.65-74. 1998 No.459 pp.39-49. (1999) 35 2 pp.192-207. (2001). (2003) 39 1 pp.43-54. 1998, 46 pp.54-71. 2003 CVM No.83. 2004 No.89. 2000. 1999 34 4 pp.392-401. 1999 H10- -032. 2002.
1999 H10- -032. 2000 51 pp.72-78. 2002 37 4 pp.371-379. 2002 58 1 pp.57-84. 1999 H10- -032pp.137-166. 2000 56 4 pp.1-18. 1995 28 pp.148-161. 1999 34 4 pp.348-360. 1994 40 1 pp.43-56. 1996 41 4 pp.143-156.
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