MEB [1] [2] [3] MEB [4] Böhringer et al. (1997) Rut
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- けんじ たつざわ
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1 MEB <hiro.takeda@gmail.com>. GAMS 1
2 MEB [1] [2] [3] MEB [4] Böhringer et al. (1997) Rutherford et al. (2002) Rutherford and Light (2002) Armington 27 1 (AGE ) Armington 1 2
3 i I ( 1 ) ES = {COC, SLA, COK, CRU, PET, NAT, GAS, LIM} EC = {COC, SLA, CRU, PET, NAT, GAS} CL = {COK, LIM}. ELE = {ELE} ENE = EC ELE NENE = I \ ENE EN = ES ELE + COL + LIM NEN = I \ EN COL LIM 1 1: (27 ) AGR CSC LIM IAM COC MAC SLA OIP CRU CON NAT ELE OMI GAS FOO SWW TET COM PPP RES CHM TCB PET PUB OPP SER COK 2.2 3
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5 ( ) η 0 σ FE & σ F,i σ E 2: COC ( ), SLA ( ), CRU ( ), NAT ( ), PET ( ), GAS ( ), ELE ( ) LIM ( ) COK ( ) 2 1) COL LIM 2) 3) 4) COL LIM 5) 6) 6 4 5
6 PET CRU GAS NAT 2 CES σ CES Q F i L D i KD i [ Q F i = fi F (L D i, Ki D ) = αi FL (L D i) σ F,i 1 σ F,i + (1 α FL i )(K D i ) σ F,i ] σf,i 1 σ F,i 1 σ F,i σ F,i CES Q EE i j QE ji Q EE i = f EE i ({Q E ji}) = j ENE αji(q E E ji) σ E 1 σ EE σ EE σ EE 1 CES Q FE i (1) (2) Q FE i ] = fi FE (Q F i, Q EE i ) = [α i F (Q F i) σ FE 1 σ FE + (1 αi F )(Q EE i ) σ σ FE 1 FE σ FE 1 σ FE (3) Q FE i QNEN ji Q NC ji COL LIM QCL ji i Q i Q i = f Q i ({QNEN ji }, {Q NC ji }, {Q CL { } Q NEN = min, ji ā NEN ji j NEN ji}, {Q FE { Q NC ji ā NC ji i }) (4) } { } Q CL ji, ā CL, QFE i ji ā FE (5) i j ES ā CES j CL p F i min L,K [ p L i L + r K i K f F i (L, K) = 1 ] (6) p L i = (1 + tl i )pl rk i = (1 + tk i )rk t L i tk i 3 (1) p F i 3 p F i = [ (αi FL ) σ F,i ( p L i) 1 σ F,i + (1 αi FL ) σ F,i ( r i K ) 1 σ ] 1 F,i 1 σ F,i 6
7 p E j (j EC), pa,ele p L, r K p F i pee i } p E j p FE i (j CL) c Q i p A j 3: p EE i min {Q E j } p E jq E j fi EE ({Q E j }) = 1 (7) j ENE = (αji) E σee ( p E j) 1 σee j 1 1 σ EE (8) p E j = pe j (j EC) pe,ele = pa,ele pe j j pa,ele p FE i p FE i min {Q F,Q EE } [ p F i Q F + p EE i Q EE f FE i (Q F, Q EE ) = 1 ] = [ (α F i ) σfe (p F i) 1 σfe + (1 α F i ) σfe (p EE i ) 1 σfe] 1 1 σ FE ( ) COL LIM c Q i = j NEN p A jā NEN ji + j ES p A jā NC ji + j CL p E jā CL ji + p FE i ā FE i p A j j 4 3 Böhringer et al. (1997) Rutherford et al. (2002) Rutherford and Light (2002) (contant elaticity of tranformation, CET) 5 4 p A j Armington j 5 ( ) ( ) 7
![F i ) σfe (p F i) 1 σfe + (1 α F i ) σfe (p EE i ) 1 σfe] 1 1 σ FE ( ) COL LIM c Q i = j NEN p A jā NEN ji + j ES p A jā NC ji + j CL p E jā CL ji + p FE i ā FE i](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_7.jpg "p A j j 4 3 Böhringer et al. (1997) Rutherford et al.")
8 D i X i Q i Q i = f O i (X i, D i ) = ] [α i X (X i ) 1+η η + (1 αi X )(D i ) 1+η η 1+η η η CET p D i px i p Q i p Q i = max X,D [px ix + p D id f O i (X, D) = 1] p Q i pd i px i ( ) (9) p Q i p Q i = [ (α X i ) η (p X i) 1+η + (1 α X i ) η (p D i) 1+η] 1 1+η t Q i ( ) (1 t Q i )pq i i (1 t Q i )pq i = cq i Shephard Shephard c Q i p FE = ā FE i i Shephard p FE i p F i = [ α F i p FE ] σfe i p F i p F i p L = i [ α FL i p L i p F ] σf,i i 3 i L D i L D i = [ α FL i p L i p F i ] σf,i [ α F i p FE ] σfe i p F ā FE i Q i i 8
9 i Ki D [ (1 α FL i )p F i K D i = r K i ] σf,i [ α F i p FE i p F i ] σfe ā FE i Q i i j EC Eji D [ ] α E Eji D ji p FE σee [ i (1 α F = i )p FE ] σfe i p E j p EE ā FE i Q i j EC i p E i pa,ele [ ] α E Eji D ji p FE σee [ i (1 α F = i )p FE ] σfe i p A j p EE ā FE i Q i, j = ELE i COK LIM ā NEN ji Q i j NEN ā CL ji Q i j CL ā NC ji Q i j ES Shephard ( ) [ ] η Xi S = pq i p X i p X Q i = Q i i Di S = pq i p D Q i = i [ α X i pq i p D i (1 α X i )pq i ] η Q i 2.3 (period utility) (lifetime utility) ( ) 9
![A j p EE ā FE i Q i, j = ELE i COK LIM ā NEN ji Q i j NEN ā CL ji Q i j CL ā NC ji Q i j ES Shephard ( ) [ ] η Xi S = pq i p X](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_9.jpg "i p X Q i = Q i i Di S = pq i p D Q i = i [ α X i pq i p D i (1 α X i )pq i ] η Q i 2.")
10 σ LC σ CC σ EC σ C 4: U W CES 6 [ ] σu 1 U = U({W } ) = (W ) σ U 1 σ U σ U (9) =t α W t 4 CES 3 CES [ ] σec C ENE = C ENE ({C i } i ENE ) = (αi EC )(C i ) σ σ EC 1 EC 1 σ EC α W i ENE CES [ ] σc C NENE = C NENE ({C i } i NENE ) = (αi C )(C i ) σ C 1 σ C 1 σ C (11) i NENE CES C = NENE C(C, C ENE ) = [ α NENE (C NENE ) σcc 1 σ CC + (1 α NENE )(C ENE ) σcc 1 σ CC ] σ CC σ CC 1 C LE CES W W = W (LE, C ) = [α LE (LE ) σ LC 1 σ LC + (1 α LE )( C ] ) σ LC 1 σ LC σ LC 1 σ LC 6 " # σ X U = t σ U 1 σ W U 1 σ 1 =t CES W CES (10) (12) (13) 10
![σ σ EC 1 EC 1 σ EC α W i ENE CES [ ] σc C NENE = C NENE ({C i } i NENE ) = (αi C )(C i ) σ C 1 σ C 1 σ C (11) i NENE CES C = NENE C(C,](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_10.jpg "C ENE ) = [ α NENE (C NENE ) σcc 1 σ CC + (1 α NENE )(C ENE ) σcc 1 σ CC ] σ CC σ CC 1 C LE CES W W = W (LE, C ) = [α LE (LE ) σ LC 1 σ")
11 C i LE CES C ENE C i (10) p EC min {C i} i ENE [ i ENE p C ic i C ENE ({C i }) = 1 p C i = (1 C i )pe i, pc,ele = (1 C ELE )pa,ele C i p C i p EC p C i 7 (10) p EC p EC = [ i ENE i ) σec ( p C i) 1 σec ] 1 1 σ EC (α EC [ ] p C min p C ic i C NENE ({C i }) = 1 {C i} i NENE = [ i NENE p C i = (1 C i )pa i i NENE (α C i ) σ C ( p C i) 1 σ C ] 1 1 σ C p CC [ min p C C NENE + p EC {C NENE,C ENE C ENE C(C NENE, C ENE ) = 1 ] } = [ (α NENE ) σcc (p C ) 1 σcc + (1 α NENE ) σcc (p EC ) 1 σcc] 1 1 σ EC ] 7 11
![i p C i p EC p C i 7 (10) p EC p EC = [ i ENE i ) σec ( p C i) 1 σec ] 1 1 σ EC (α EC [ ] p C min p C ic i C NENE ({C i }) = 1](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_11.jpg "{C i} i NENE = [ i NENE p C i = (1 C i )pa i i NENE (α C i ) σ C ( p C i) 1 σ C ] 1 1 σ C p CC [ min p C C NENE + p EC {C")
12 p LE c W [ min p LE LE, C LE + p CC C W (LE, C ) = 1 ] = [ (α LE ) σlc (p LE ) 1 σlc + (1 α LE ) σlc ( p CC ) 1 σlc] 1 1 σ LC = (1 t I )p L ti p L p CC = (1 + t C )p CC t C p W p U min W [ = =t [ ] p W W U({W } ) = 1 =t (α W ) σ U (p W ) 1 σ U ] 1 1 σ U (preent price) R p W = R t, c W { 1 = t R t, = l=t (1 + r ) 1 > t r 1 (current price) p W p EC, p C, p CC, p W, p U p C i pec p C pec p C p CC p CC p LE p W p W p U p C i p LE p U 2 (14) U = Y H /p U (15) Y H ( ) ( ) ( ) 12
![U ] 1 1 σ U (preent price) R p W = R t, c W { 1 = t R t, = l=t (1 + r ) 1 > t r 1 (current price) p W p EC, p C, p CC, p](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_12.jpg "W, p U p C i pec p C pec p C p CC p CC p LE p W p W p U p C i p LE p U 2 (14) U = Y H /p U (15) Y H 2.3.3 ( ) ( ) ( ) 12")
13 2: p C i (i ENE) pec p C i (i NENE) pc } p CC p LE } R c W = p W p U p W ( ) Shephard W Shephard p U p W [ α W = p U ] σu (16) p W W c W p LE = [ α LE c W p LE ] σlc (17) (16) (17) LE = [ α LE c W p LE ] σlc [ α W p U ] σu U (18) p W p W p CC = [ (1 α LE )c W p CC ] σlc (19) C D = [ (1 α LE )c W p CC ] σlc [ α W p U ] σu U (20) p W Shephard i NENE [ α Ci D C = i p C p C i ] σc [ α NENE p CC ] σcc CD p C i NENE (21) 13
![α W p U ] σu U (18) p W p W p CC = [ (1 α LE )c W p CC ] σlc (19) C D = [ (1 α LE )c W p CC ] σlc [ α W p](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_13.jpg "U ] σu U (20) p W Shephard i NENE [ α Ci D C = i p C p C i ] σc [ α NENE p CC ] σcc CD p C i NENE (21) 13")
14 i ENE C D i = [ α EC i p C i p EC ] σec [ (1 α NENE )p CC ] σcc CD p EC i ENE (22) ( ) L (18) ( ) L S = L LE p LE L S p LE L 8 r KE t A r KE = (1 t A )r K r KE K TRN 1 NA H r NA H K + r NA H + TRN + p LE L (23) r KE EXP 9 INV NA H +1 NA H INV + NA H +1 NA H = r KE K + r NA H + Ω (24) Ω = p LE L + TRN EXP H INV p I I ( ) INV = p I I quadratic adjutment cot J I ( )] J I = J [1 + Φ 8 p LE LS 9 EXP p W W/Rt, K (25) 14
15 J Φ ( ) J Φ = ϕ J (26) 2 K K ϕ (25) (24) p I J [1 + Ω ] + NA H +1 NA H = r KE K + r NA H + Ω (27) (27) K +t = (1 δ)k + J K J NA H 10 max U({W }) (28).t. p I J [1 + Ω ] + NA H +1 (1 + r )NA H r KE K Ω = 0 (29) K +1 = (1 δ)k + J (30) Given K t and NA H t. (31) 11 L = U({W }) (32) [ λ R t, p I J (1 + Ω ) + NA H +1 (1 + r )NA H ] (33) =t µ R t, [K +1 (1 δ)k J ] (34) =t NA H J K L NA H = 0 : λ = λ 1 = t + 1, t + 2, (35) [ ] L µ = 0 : = p I 1 + Φ + Φ J = t, t + 1, (36) J λ K L = 0 : r K + µ [ ] 2 (1 δ) + p I K λ Φ J = (1 + r ) λ 1 µ 1 = t + 1, t + 2, (37) K λ µ µ /λ hadow price p K p KA µ /λ p KA p I Φ [ J K ] 2 (38) p KA K p KA (36) (37) [ ] = p I 1 + Φ + Φ J = t, t + 1, (39) p K r K K + p K (1 δ) + p KA = (1 + r )p K 1 = t + 1, t + 2, (40) 10 W W 11 current value 15
![(31) 11 L = U({W }) (32) [ λ R t, p I J (1 + Ω ) + NA H +1 (1 + r )NA H ] (33) =t µ R t, [K +1 (1 δ)k J ] (34) =t NA H J K L NA H = 0 : λ = λ 1 = t + 1, t + 2, (35) [ ] L µ = 0 : = p I 1 + Φ +](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_15.jpg "Φ J = t, t + 1, (36) J λ K L = 0 : r K + µ [ ] 2 (1 δ) + p I K λ Φ J = (1 + r ) λ 1 µ 1 = t + 1, t + 2, (37) K λ µ µ /λ hadow price p K p KA µ /λ p KA p I Φ [ J K ] 2 (38) p KA K p KA (36)")
16 (39) p I ( ) p I Φ ( ) p I Φ p I Φ J /K ( ) (39) ( + 1 ) (39) hadow price (40) ( ) 12 p K 1 (1 + r )p K 1 ( ) r KE 1 1 δ (1 δ)p K r KE + p K +1(1 δ) + p KA ( ) (40) 13 (40) > t = t K t 14 Φ (39) (40) [ p K = p I 1 + ϕ J ] = t, t + 1, (41) K r K + p K (1 δ) + p KA = (1 + r )p K 1 = t + 1, t + 2, (42) [ p I J 1 + ϕ ] J + NA H +1 NA H = r KE K + r NA H + Ω (43) 2 K p I ϕ(j ) 2 /(2K ) [ p I J 1 + ϕ J ] + NA H +1 = r KE K + p I ϕ J 2 + (1 + r )NA H + Ω (44) K 2 K 12 hadow price 13 (40) r = rke p K 1 pk p K δ + pk pk 1 1 p K 1 + pka p K 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (40) no arbitrage condition 14 (40) 16
![+ 2, (42) [ p I J 1 + ϕ ] J + NA H +1 NA H = r KE K + r NA H + Ω (43) 2 K p I ϕ(j ) 2 /(2K ) [ p I J 1 + ϕ J ] + NA H +1 = r KE K + p I ϕ J 2 + (1 + r](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_16.jpg ")NA H + Ω (44) K 2 K 12 hadow price 13 (40) r = rke p K 1 pk p K δ + pk pk 1 1 p K 1 + pka p K 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (40) no arbitrage condition 14")
17 (41) p K J + NA H +1 = r KE J = K +1 (1 δ)k p KA p K K +1 + NA H +1 = [ r KE > t (42) (46) K + p I ϕ J 2 + (1 + r )NA H + Ω (45) 2 K + p K (1 δ) + p KA ] K + (1 + r )NA H + Ω (46) p K K +1 + NA H +1 = (1 + r ) [ p K 1K + NA H ] + Ω > t (47) t + 1 forward iteration p K t K t+1 + NA H [ t+1 = R t,t p K T K T +1 + NA H ] T +1 T R t, Ω (48) =t+1 t (46) p K t K t+1 + NA H t+1 = [ r KE t (48) (49) t T + p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt + (1 + r t )NA H t + Ω t (49) [ r K t + p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt +(1 + r t )NA H t (50) [ R t,t p K T K T +1 + NA H ] T T +1 + R t, Ω t = 0 (51) T no Ponzi game lim R [ t,t p K T K T +1 + NA H ] T +1 = 0 (52) T ( ) =t R t, EXP = [ rt K =t + p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt + (1 + r t )NA H t + =t R t, [ p LE L + TRN ] (53) (15) Y H Armington Armington 5 CES CES Armington A i A i = A i (D i, M i ) = [ αi AD σ A,i 1 σ (D i ) A,i + (1 αi AD )(M i ) σ A,i ] σa,i 1 σ A,i 1 σ A,i (54) 17
![+ p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt + (1 + r t )NA H t + Ω t (49) [ r K t + p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt +(1 + r t )NA H t (50) [ R t,t p K T K T +1 + NA H ] T T +1 + R t, Ω t = 0 (51) T no Ponzi game lim R [](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_17.jpg "t,t p K T K T +1 + NA H ] T +1 = 0 (52) T ( ) =t R t, EXP = [ rt K =t + p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt + (1 + r t )NA H t + =t R t, [ p LE L + TRN ] (53) (15) Y H 2.4")
18 Armington σ A,i 5: Armington Armington ( 1 ) 4 Armington p A i min [ p D id + p M i M A i (D, M) = 1 ] (55) [ = (p D i) 1 σa + (1 αi AD )( p M i ) 1 σa] 1 1 σ A (56) α AD i p M i = (1 + tm i )p M i pa i Armington ( ) Di AD M i D AD i = pa i p D A i = i M i = pa i p M A i = i [ α AD p A i p D i ] σ A [ (1 α AD )p A i p M i A i (57) ] σ A A i (58) Armington I A I i Armington a I i Armington i [ ] A I I = min i (59) i p I a I i p I = i p A ia I i (60) (world price) 18
![p D A i = i M i = pa i p M A i = i [ α AD p A i p D i ] σ A [ (1 α AD )p A i p M i A i (57) ] σ A A i (58) 2.4.](/docs-images/52/20145091/images/page_18.jpg "2 Armington I A I i Armington a I i Armington i [ ] A I I = min i (59) i p I a I i p I = i p A ia I i (60) 2.4.")
19 15 p ROW i p FX i p M i p M i = p FX p ROW i (61) p ROW i = p X i/p FX (62) 1 p ROW i = 1 (63) p M i = p FX p X i = p FX (64) i p X i pfx i 1 i p M i p FX 1 i 1 p FX ( ) TRN 15 ( ) 16 ( ) ( ) 19
20 Armington Armington i a G i ( ) p G = i p A ia G i G p G G M G M G = i t L i p L L D i + i t K i r K K D i + i t Q i pq i Q i + t I p L L S + t A r K K + t C p CC C + t M i p M i M i C i p A ici D i i NENE i ENE C i p E ic D i 3 ( ) GS GS = M G p G G TRN G (65) GBS forward iteration GBS = NA G +1 NA G = GS + r NA G (66) (1 + r t )NA G t = R t,t NA G T +1 T R t, GS (67) =t (1 + r t )NA G t = lim T R t,t NA G T +1 (68) [ ] R t, p G G + TRN = M G (69) =t =t 20
21 p E i Armington γ i i EC t CE p E i p E i = p A i + γ i t CE (70) Armington A EC i Armington A EC i A EC i = j ā CL ij Q j + C D i i CL (71) A EC i = j E D ij + C D i i EC (72) CE D = i ES γ i A EC i (73) 2.7 Armington D i Armington Di AD D i = D AD i (74) Armington Armington i Armington A i ( LIM COK) LIM COK ( LIM COK) 4 21
22 (LIM COK ) i NENE A i = C D i + j ā Q ij Q j + ā I i I + ā G i G i NENE (75) LIM COK (i CL) A i = C D i + j ā CL ij Q j + j ā NC ij Q j + ā I i I + ā G i G i CL (76) (i ELE) A i = C D i + j E ij + ā I i I + ā G i G i ELE (77) ( LIM COK) (i EC) A i = C D i + j E ij + j ā NC ij Q j + ā I i I + ā G i G i EC (78) L S = i L D i (79) r K K = i K D i (80) ( ) CAS CAS = NA F +1 NA F = TS + r ROW NA F (81) TS i pw i [X i M i ] r ROW NA F r ROW forward iteration (1 + rt ROW )NA F t = Rt,T ROW NA F T T =t R ROW t, TS (82)
23 (1 + r ROW t )NA F t = lim T RROW t,t NA F T +1 =t R ROW t, TS (83) (1 + r ROW t )NA F t = lim T RROW t,t NA F T +1 (84) (84) =t i =t R ROW X i = R ROW t, TS = 0 (85) =t i R ROW M i (86) X i X i M i M i (86) p FX (73) CE D CED CE S tce CE S = CE D (87) 3 [1] [2] [3] [4] 23
24 3.1 (σ LC ) Böhringer et al. (1997) Rutherford et al. (2002) Rutherford and Light (2002) ( 3 ) Armington GTAP verion 5 17 ( 4 5) η σ EE σ FE 3: η 4 σ FE 0.5 σ F i i 5 σ EE 0.5 σ Ai i Armington 4 σ LC ( ) σ CC 0.3 σ EC 2 σ C 1 σ U 0.5 σ LC 4: Armington (σ Ai ) AGR, FOO, TET 2.2 OMI, LIM, COC, SLA, CRU, NAT, IAM, MAC, OIP, ELE, GAS, 2.8 SWW PPP 1.8 CHM, PET, OPP, COK, CSC, CON, COM, RES, TCB, CAB, 1.9 PUB, SER 17 See < 24
25 5: (σ F i ) AGR, FOO OMI, LIM, COC, SLA, CRU, NAT 0.2 TET, PPP, CHM, PET, OPP, COK, CSC, IAM, MAC, OIP 1.26 ELE, GAS, SWW, RES, TCB, PUB, CON, SER, 1.4 COM [1] CES (α F i αx i αfl i ) [2] (σ LC ) CES Armington α AGE σ LC (ε L ) α LC AGE 19 ε L (2003) ε L = LE U (13) LE U [ ] α LE U LE σlc X = p LE (α LE ) σlc (p LE ) 1 σlc + (1 α LE ) σlc (p CC ) 1 σlc X p LE L + r KE K + rna H + TRN SAVE H ε LE ε LE ln LEU ln p LE = [ ] 1 ple LE σ LC + ple L X X 18 Rutherford (1998) Shoven and Whalley (1992, p. 115) 19 Shoven and Whalley (1992) 20 (2003) Aano (1997) 0.39 Pencavel (1986) 0.2 ε L = =
26 σ LC σ LC ε LE [ ] 1 σ LC = 1 p LE ε LE + ple L LE/X X (88) L L = L LE ε L ln L ln p LE = ε LE LE L (89) (88) (89) σ LC ε L σ LC = [ 1 1 p LE LE/X ε L ] L LE + ple L X p LE L L X ε L σ LC 3.3 ( ) Step 1: Step 2: Step 1 Step 3: GDP GDP Step 1 Step 1 3 [1] L [2] G [3] TRN p G r ROW r r r p W p W +1 = pw 1 + r (90) 26
27 1 21 W p W (α W ) (9) α W CES W p W α W r K t rt K δ r r K t K +1 = K K +1 = (1 δ)k + J J /K = δ (91) J t K t J I [ I = J 1 + ϕ ] J 2 K (91) [ I = δk 1 + ϕ ] 2 δ p I t 1 I t V I t V I t = δk [ 1 + ϕ 2 δ ] (92) r rt KE δ (42) p K t 1 = p K t (41) r KE t + p K t (1 δ) + p KA t = (1 + r t )p K t (93) p K t = p I t [1 + ϕδ] = 1 + ϕδ
28 (93) r KE t p KA t p KA t = [1 + ϕδ](r + δ) p KA t (94) = p I t (38) (91) [ ] 2 ϕ Jt = ϕ 2 K t 2 δ2 (95) rt KE K t Vt K rt KE K t = Vt K (96) (92) (94) (96) Vt K Vt I ϕ r δ rt K K t Vt K Vt I (92) (94) (96) 23 [ ] 2 [ ] 2 r r δ δ min Lo = + (97) r,δ,r KE t,k t,p KA t.t. V I t r KE t r = δk [1 + ϕδ/2] = [1 + ϕδ](r + δ) p KA t p KA t = ϕδ 2 /2 rt KE K t = Vt K r δ ( ) r = 0.03 δ = 0.07 r = δ = rt KE = K t = 1561 p KA t = δ Step 2 Step 1 L (1997) (1997) (2002) (96) 23 Böhringer et al. (1997) 28
29 6: (%) Year Rate Year Rate Year Rate Year Rate
30 3.3.3 Step 3 [1] [2] [1] [1] GDP GDP [2] [2] [1] [2] primary factor-augmented energy augmented Q FE i [ Q FE i = αi F ( β F Q F i) σ FE 1 σ FE + (1 α F i ) ( β E Q EE i ) σ FE 1 σ FE ] σfe σ FE 1 (98) β F βe primary factor energy input βf β E QFE i β F βe i primary factor energy ξ F ξ E β F = (1 + ξ F ) t β F t β E = (1 + ξ E ) t β E t (99) β F t β E t 1 β F βe ξ F ξ E ξ F ξ E ξ F ξ E G [1] ξ F GDP GDP [2] ξ E 30
31 [3] G GDP 24 [1] [2] GDP CO2 AIM/Trend model (AIM Project Team, 2002) AIM/Trend model 2032 GDP CO2 AIM/Trend model GDP CO GDP CO2 ξ F ξ E G Step 3 ( ) Lau et al. (2002) (terminal period) J T = W T (100) J T 1 W T 1 T t T 24 GDP GDP p G G/GDP pg t Gt/GDPt 25 Lau et al. (2002) 31
32 (53) T =t p W W = [ r KE t + p K t (1 δ) + p KA ] t Kt + NA H t [ R t,t p K T K T +1 + NA H ] T [ ] T +1 + p LE L + TRN =t K T +1 NA H T +1 (pot terminal period) no Ponzi game R t,t [p K T K T +1 + NA H T +1] NA H t = NA H T +1 = 0 ( ) K T +1 (100) J T T 26 T [ ] T R t, p G G + TRN = R t, M G (101) =t T p RF X i = =t i =t T =t i p RF M i (102) 4 MEB (marginal exce burden MEB) MEB (1) differential approach (2) balanced-budget approach (Ballard, 1990) (1) (1) (2) ( ) (1) differential approach [1] 1% [2] 26 (68) (1 + r t)na G t = R t,t NA G T +1 NA G t = 0 NAG T +1 (84) (1 + r ROW t )NA F t = RROW t,t NA F T +1 (1 + r ROW t )NA F t = 0 32
33 [3] EV MEB MEB = 100 EV (103) 5 7 (1995 ) ( 1999 ) [1] [2] [3] ( ) [4] ( ) [5] ( ) [6] ( ) SNA SNA KDB (Keio Economic Obervatory Data Bae) (, 1997, pp. 49)
34 7: (35 ) AGR LIM COC SLA CRU NAT OMI FOO TET PPP CHM PET OPP COK CSC IAS NFM MET GMA EMA TRE PIN OIP CON ELE GAS SWW COM FAI RES TRN CAB PUB OPS SER 34
35 ( ) 6 27 ( ) ( ) KDB KDB KDB KDB 1995 [1] KDB ( ) β i β i = i i [2] β i i + (104) = β i + (105) 1995 i 27 SNA
36 5.3.2 = + + = + + = = [1] [2] ( 1997 ) 7 21 [3] [4] {x 1,, x n} x α = x/ P i x i α x i = αx i x i 36
37 8: ( ) 13.7 ( ) 0.8 ( ) (1) (2) (1) (2) = + ( ) 29 37
38 5.4.2 = = + = + 24 ( ) 30 38
39 31 = % ( 7 ) (? ) 540 ( 1997 ) % 7.2 %
40 = 26.4% = + (= ) = + = + + = + (106) (106) = + = 40
41 = ( 1 ) ( ) CRU ( ) NAT ( ) PET ( ) OPP ( ) CRU NAT 27 PET NAT CRU CRU NAT NAT CRU CRU NAT PET OPP PET OPP PET OPP
42 5.6.5 Yi C Yi R i i A ij j j A ij = Y R i i (107) A ji = Y C i i (108) [ ] 2 Aij Āij (109) Lo = i,j Ā ij Āij ( ) (109) (107) (108) (109) A ij EID (, 2002) 3EID 399 3EID (10 13 kcal) LIM 42
43 10 ELE ( ) IAM ( ) CHM ( ) TCB ( ) CSC ( ) 10 PET GAS PET 11 COC CRU NAT PAC GSW 12 PET LPG 58% 13 ELE, IAM, CHM, CSC, TCB 9: (16 ) AGR AGR MIN OMI, LIM, COC, SLA, CRU, NAT FOO FOO TET TET PPP PPP CHM CHM PAC PET, OPP, COK CSC CSC IAM IAM MAO GMA, OIP CRE CON, RES ELE ELE GSW GAS, SWW COM COM TCB TCB SER SER, PUB 43
44 10: (10 13 kcal) COC SLA CRU NAT PET COK GAS AGR FOO TET PPP CHM CSC IAM ELE COM TCB SER MIN PAC MAO CRE GSW LIM (limetone) 11: (10 13 kcal) COC CRU NAT PET CHM 2.45 PAC GSW
45 12: (%) COC SLA CRU NAT PET COK GAS : (%) (%) AGR 1.10 FOO 0.40 TET 0.40 PPP 0.70 CHM 0.80 CSC 4.00 IAM 1.40 ELE 8.90 COM 0.20 TCB 5.60 SER 0.30 MIN 0.80 PAC 2.10 MAO 0.10 CRE 0.30 GSW
46 COK SLA COK CRU PET NAT GAS 319MtC 3EID (320MtC) CHM, CSC, IAM, ELE, TCB 7 ( 13%) CHM, CSC, IAM, ELE, TCB 14: (MtC) AGR FOO TET PPP CHM CSC IAM ELE COM TCB SER MIN PAC MAO CRE GSW EID 320MtC 3EID 3EID (1) (2) 3EID PET 2 46
47 AGR CFI CHM CRE CSC ELE FOO GSW IAS MAC MIN MPD Carbon emiion by ector (MtC) PAC PPP SER TET TRN FCON Coal Ga Petroleum Limetone 6: (MtC) 15: (%) LIM COC SLA CRU NAT PET COK GAS
48 7: 16: (%) ( /100 ) AGR FOO TET PPP CHM CSC IAM ELE COM TCB SER MIN PAC MAO CRE GSW
49 5.8.3 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 7 (1) (5) 5 17 V K i i ( ) T K i i τ K i = T K i V K i i V L i i ( ) T L i τ L i = T L i V L i 18 3 ( ) 18 ( ) % (1997) [1] [2]
50 17: (10 ) (%) (10 ) (%) AGR OMI LIM SLA NAT FOO TET PPP CHM PET OPP COK CSC IAM MAC OIP CON ELE GAS SWW COM RES TCB PUB SER
51 18: (%) ( ) : (%) (1 )
52 AIM Project Team (2002) AIM/Trend Model. (available at: Aano, Seki (1997) Joint Allocation of Leiure and Conumption Commoditie: A Japanee Extended Conumer Demand Sytem , Japanee Economic Review, Vol. 48, pp Ballard, Charle L. (1990) Marginal Welfare Cot Calculation: Differential Analyi v. Balanced Budget Analyi, Journal of Public Economic, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp Böhringer, Chritoph, Andrea Pahlke, and Thoma F. Rutherford (1997) Environmental Tax Reform and the Propect for a Double Dividend, Jan. Mimeo, (available at: Lau, Morten I., Andrea Pahlke, and Thoma F. Rutherford (2002) Approximating Infinite-Horizon Model in a Complementarity Format: A Primer in Dynamic General Equilibrium Analyi, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, Vol. 26, pp Pencavel, John (1986) Labor Supply of Men: A Survey, in O. Ahenfelter and P. R. G. Layard ed. Handbook of Labor Economic, Vol. 1, Amterdam: North-Holland, Chap. 1. Rutherford, Thoma F. and Mile K. Light (2002) A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Analyi in Colombia: The MEGATAX Model. ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA, Documento 188. Rutherford, Thoma F., Mile K. Light, and Gutavo Hernández (2002) A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Analyi in Colombia. ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA, Documento 189. Rutherford, Thoma F. (1998) CES Preference and Technology: A Practical Introduction. in Economic Equilibrium Modeling with GAMS: An Introduction to GAMS/MCP and GAMS/MPSGE (GAMS/MPSGE Solver Manual), pp , (available at: Shoven, John B. and John Whalley (1992) Applying General Equilibrium, New York: Cambridge Univerity Pre. Varian, Hal R. (1992) Microeconomic Analyi, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 3rd edition. (1997) 540 (1997) KEO Keio Economic Obervatory Monograph Serie 8 (1997) 7 (2002) ( 14 1 ) (1999) 7 (1995 ) 52
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Title 最適年金の理論 Author(s) 藤井, 隆雄 ; 林, 史明 ; 入谷, 純 ; 小黒, 一正 Citation Issue 2012-06 Date Type Technical Report Text Version publisher URL http://hdl.handle.net/10086/23085 Right Hitotsubashi University Repository
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