28 Islamic State: IS

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2 28 Islamic State: IS

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6 1 1-1 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD Association of South East Asian Nations: ASEAN Kurdistan Regional Government: KRG

7 Japan International Cooperation Agency: JICA de-radicalization Foreign Terrorist Organizations Gulf Cooperation Council: GCC

8 energy return on investment: EROI EROI

9 % 3 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: JCPOA 3-1 JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA Donald Trump 3-2 JCPOA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: OCHA 2016

10 11 1 2, Internally Displaced Persons: IDP 1-1 Islamic State: IS IDP IDP ,553 2,504 2, ,148 1,069 1, ,332 3,718 4,595 4, UNHCR

11 5 GCC

12

13 7-3 BBC NHK

14 27 1 Barack Obama Islamic State: IS Donald Trump IS

15 Bashshār al-asad Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat: PYD Yekînêyen Parastina Gel: YPG Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: PKK PKK YPG IS YPG IS 3 P5+1 5 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: JCPOA Gulf Cooperation Council: GCC

16 National Transformation Program: NTP Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: OPEC 8 GCC IS IS IS IS IS 5 IS IS IS 6 7 Fethullah Gülen 4 5 IS , ,080 6

17 Staffan de Mistura NGO Physicians for Human Rights: PHR bureaucratic blockage NGO Stephen O Brien 13 Economic and Social Comission for Western Asia: ESCWA ,596 1,697 GDP 899 GDP

18 IS , IS

19 International Syria Support Group: ISSG ISSG Vladimir Putin IS

20 United Nations Development Programme: UNDP 18 David Leonard 19 2 Aron Lund 20

21 militiafication Cody Roche Frederic Wehrey localized security 22 Popular Mobilization Unit local council Non Governmental Organization: NGO Internally Displaced Persons: IDP Rana Khalaf 23 Jihad Yazigi

22 24 IDP Paul Prettitore IDP 25 IDP 1, OCHA ,860 6,

23 3 Security Sector Reform: SSR Hassar, Younes The Middle East Needs a Westphalian Moment not New Borders, International Policy Digest, June 7, IHS Markit AFP, October 9, ,000 Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Gülen Movement, Muslim Networks and Movements in Western Europe, Pew Research Center, 2010, pp.13, Ibid, p John Butler and Dov Friedman, The Roots of Gulenist Power in Turkey: The Coup and After, Foreign Affairs, August 2, OCHA, Syria Crisis: Regional Overview: About Crisis, [ syria-country-profile/about-crisis] accessed on December 20, OCHA 643, Al Jazeera, April 23, Khaddour, Kheder, The Assad Regime s Hold on the Syrian State, Carnegie Middle East Center, July Physicians for Human Rights, Anatomy of a Crisis: A Map of Attacks on Health Care in Syria, [ s3.amazonaws.com/phr_syria_map/web/index.html] accessed on December 19, UN Security Council, Implementation on Security Council Resolutions 2139 (2014), 2165 (2014), 2191 (2014) and 2258 (2015): Report of the Secretary-General, S/2016/796, September 16, 2016, para Lynch, Colum, U.N. s Fear of Angering Assad Leaves Gap in Syria Aid Effort, Foreign Policy, December 30, 2014; Sparrow, Annie, Aiding Disaster: How the United Nations OCHA Helped Assad and Hurt Syrians in Need, Foreign Affairs, February 1, Gladstone, Rick, 73 Syrian Aid Groups Suspend Cooperation with U.N., The New York Times, September 8, O Brien, Stephen, The UN Is Impartial in Syria As It Is Elsewhere, The Guardian, September 1, ESCWA and University of St. Andrews, Syria at War: Five Years On, 2016, pp.14, 15.

24 15 Mazzetti, Mark, Anne Barnard and Eric Schmitt, Military Success in Syria Gives Putin Upper Hand in U.S. Proxy War, The New York Times, August 6, Klein, Margarete, Russia s Military: On the Rise?, Transatlantic Academy Paper Series , No.2, March Jabhat Fatḥ al-shām Hayʼat Taḥrīr al- Shām Tahrir al-sham: Al-Qaeda s latest incarnation in Syria, BBC, February 12, UNDP, Governance for Peace: Securing the Social Contract, 2012, pp.18, Leonard, David K., Ferdinand Mugumo Mushi, and James Vincent, Social Contracts and Security in Sub- Saharan African Conflict States: The Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone and Somalia, Paper for presentation to the African Studies Association, November Lund, Aron, Assad s Broken Base: The Case of Idlib, The Century Foundation, July 14, Roche, Cody, Assad Regime Militias and Shi ite Jihadis in the Syrian Civil War, Bellingcat, November 30, 2016, [ accessed on December 10, Wehrey, Frederic and Ariel Ahram, The National Guard In Iraq: A Risky Strategy to Combat the Islamic State, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 23, Khalaf, Rana, Governance without Government in Syria: Civil Society and State Building during Conflict, Syria Studies, Vol.7, No.3, 2015, p Yazigi, Jihad, Syria s War Economy, European Council on Foreign Relations, April 2014, p Prettitore, Paul, Will Forcibly Displaced Syrians Get Their Land Back?, Brookings, July 21, OCHA, Global Humanitarian Overview 2017, [ accessed on January 3, 2017.

25

26 1 1 Q A 1 ulamā ṣūfī

27 qāḍī 2 al-qur ān ḥadīth al-nabī Muḥammad 632 ḥalqa ilmiye 3 Ḥizb Allāh Ḥizb al-da wa al-islāmīya al-ikhwān al-muslimūn 4

28 1 Neo-Sufism Gülen Hareketi/Gülen Movement 1 5 ṣūf = taṣawwuf Sufism 9 walī 10 Abū Ḥāmid Muḥammad al-ghazālī 1111 Muḥyī al-dīn Muḥammad Ibn Arabī ṭarīqa 13 Jalāl al-dīn Muḥammad al-rūmī 1273 Mawlā-nā al-ṭarīqa al-mawlawīya 7 14 Bahā al-dīn Muḥammad Naqshband 1389 al-ṭarīqa al-naqshbandīya

29 dhikr shaykh baraka 14

30 1 Ṭarīqa-yi Ṣafavīya Taqī al-dīn Aḥmad Ibn Taymīya

31 10 17 Aḥmad Sirhindī Mujaddid = Muḥammad Ibn Abd al-wahhāb 1792 Āl Sa ūd Aḥmad b. Idrīs al-fāsī 1837 al-ṭarīqa al-idrīsīya = Muḥammad b. Alī al-sanūsī 1859 al-ṭarīqa al- Sanūsīya Muḥammad Idrīs al-sanūsī

32 New ReligiosityAlternative Religiosity Mark Sedgwick Idries Shah George Ivanovich Gurdjieff 1949

33 15 Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi: AKP 2002 Fethullah Gülen Bediüzzaman Saîd Nursî 1960 Nur Cemaati/Nur Movement Ḍiyā al-dīn Mawlā-nā Khālid Baghdādī Shahrazūrī 1827

34 Hizmet

35 NGO

36

37 Q&A q a/ Hayyim J. Cohen, The Economic Background and the Secular Occupations of Muslim Jurisprudents and Traditionalists in the Classical Period of Islam, Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient, vol , pp

38 R. A Qādirī 11 Suhrawardī 12 Rifā ī 12 Shādhilī 13 Chishtī 13 Bektashī 13 7 Mevlevî = Muḥammad Niẓām al-dīn Awliyā 1325 Thékla Umma man yujaddidu la-hā dīna-hā Abū Dāwūd, Sunan Abī Dāwūd, ed. Abū Ṭāhir Zubayr Alī Za ī, al-riyāḍ: Dār al-salām, 2009, p. 847 (Kitāb al-malāḥim, Bāb Mā Yuzhkar fī Qarn al-mā a). 12 Naqshbandi: Sufi Way, Naqshbandiyya Nazimiyya of Sufi Order of America, Accessed on December 15, 2016; Al-Salṭana: Bayān Jalīl li-sharaf Banī Ādam min qibal al-shaykh al- Ḥaqqānī al-rabbānī, Sheikh Nazim, Accessed on December 15, Jaysh Rijāl al-ṭarīqa al-naqshbandīya 2006 Al-Mawqi al-rasmī li-jaysh Rijāl al-ṭarīqa al- Naqshbandīya, Accessed on December 15, 2016; JRTN Jaysh al-rijal al-tariq al-naqshabandiweb Mark Sedgwick, Islamic Mysticism and Neo-Sufism, CISMOR ; Idem, Neo-Sufism in the 1960s: Idries Shah, CISMOR ; Idem, Western Sufism: From the Abbasids to the New Age, Oxford University Press, SOKAnet: Fethullah Gülen, Emerald Hills of the Heart: Key Concepts in the Practice of Sufism, 4 vols., n. p.: Tughra Books, ; Idem, Sufism and Metaphysic, Fethullah Gülen s Official Web Site, Accessed on March ; Heon C. Kim, Fethullah Gülen s Dialogic Sufism: A Theological Framework, Gulen Movement, Accessed on March Sedgwick, Islamic Mysticism and Neo-Sufism, p Fethullah Gülen, Fethullah Gülen s Official Web Site, Accessed on December 1, 2016; Gulen Movement, Accessed on March Svante E. Cornell & M. K. Kaya, The Naqshbandi-Khalidi Order and Political Islam in Turkey, Hudson

39 Institute, 2015, Accessed on December 1, Fethullah Gülen, Fethullah Gülen s Official Web Site, Accessed on December 1, Daren Butler, Turkey Officially Designates Gulen Religious Group as Terrorists, World News, Reuters, May 31, 2016, Accessed on March 6, Maruyama Daisuke, Seeking Articulation between Sufi and Salafi: Doctrines and Education of al-tariqa al-rukayniya in Sudan, ; Idem, Redefining Sufism in Its Social and Political Contexts: The Relationship between Sufis and Salafis in Contemporary Sudan (Special Feature: The Vicissitudes of the Sufi Movement in Society: Past and Present ), ; Pakistan kills 100 militants after Sufi shrine attack, BBC News (February 17, 2017) Accessed on February 18, 2017.

40 EROI Energy Return on Investment EPR Energy Profit Ratio 2 1 Eout Ein EnetEout Ein EROI EROI

41 eroei.net 3 EROI EROI 1 EROI 10 2 net energy cliff EROI 10 EROI 100 Kurt Cobb 4

42 2 2 3 EROI 3 1 EROI 5

43 4 5 4 EROI EROEI EROI Gareth Roberts 6 5 EROI EROI EROI

44 2 Gareth Roberts 7 BP Statistical Review 2016

45 6 EROI Peak Oil EROI 10

46

47 BP Statistical Review BP Statistical Review 2016

48 2 BP Statistical Review BP Statistical Review 2016

49 BP Statistical Review 2016

50 2 Export Land Model EROI UAE UAE

51 1 Leggett, Jeremy, Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis, new edition, Portobello Books, EPR Energy Profit Ratio EROI EROI EPR EROI 3 eroei.net, [ accessed on January 3, 2017; Cobb, Kurt, The Net Energy Cliff, Energy Bulletin, [ accessed on January 3, ,400 6 Roberts, Gareth, The Resource Triangle, (Power Point Slides presented at Net Energy Analysis Workshop on April 1, 2015 at Stanford University) PDF file available at [ Roberts_The%20Resource%20Triangle%20April% pdf] accessed on Dec. 29, Ibid. 8 Council on Foreign Relations Fatih BirolIEA, World Energy Outlook 2014, Council on Foreign Relations, November 25, 2014, [ accessed on December 29, Korowicz, David, Trade-Off: Financial System Supply- Chain Cross-Contagion: A Study in Global Systemic Collapse, revised version, Metis Risk Consulting & Feasta, 2012; Orlov, Dmitry, Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, Now Society Publishers, 2008; Orlov, Dmitry, The Five Stages of Collapse: A Survivor s Toolkit, Now Society Publishers,

52 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: JCPOA 1 Ḥasan Rouḥānī Donald Trump % % % % % % % Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications: SWIFT 9 4

53 2012 Europe Union: EU SWIFT SWIFT Barack Obama 6 40 JCPOA A320 A330 A A A320 A ,

54 Due diligence PSA Industrial Development & Renovation Organization of Iran: IDRO JCPOA 2 JCPOA International Atomic Energy Agency: IAEA JCPOA 9 JCPOA JCPOA

55 JCPOA JCPOA P5+1 JCPOA EU North Atlantic Treaty Organization: NATO JCPOA 1 Rex Tillerson CEO CNBC JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA Isalamic State: IS 10 James Mattis 2013 Vladimir Putin Bashshār al-asadjcpoa JCPOA 11 IS 12 Michael Flynn 3 Defense Intelligence Agency: DIA

56 Steve Bannon National Security Council: NSC 1980 Benjamin Netanyahu Jared Kushner 2 JCPOA P5+1 JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA

57 Iran Sanctions Act: ISA Alī Akbar Ṣāleḥī JCPOA Moḥammadjavād Ẓarīf P5+1 JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: IRGC JCPOA JCPOA Annex B para JCPOA JCPOA JCPOA

58 S IRGC Marco Rubio 12 Todd Young John Cornyn IRGC Sāzmān-e Ṣanāye -e Havāfaẓā Gorūh-e Ṣana tī-ye Shahīd Hemmat Gorūh-e Ṣana tī-ye Shahīd Bāqerī IRGC JCPOA

59 JCPOA 20 7 JCPOA Maḥmūd Aḥmadīnezhād NGO 21 JCPOA JCPOA 22 Akbar Hāshemī Rafsanjānī Moḥammad alī Movahedī Kermānī NATO 24 Moḥammad Khātamī Alī Khāmeneī 2 10

60 Alī Shamkhānī JCPOA Mīrḥosein Mūsavī

61 Mehdī Karrūbī Narges Moḥammadī ,000 Yāshār Soltānī Alī Moṭahharī Maḥmūd Ṣādeqī Moḥammadbāqer Qālībāf Ṣādeq Lārījānī 12 Bābak Zanjānī IRGC

62 IRGC 33 IRGC Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line: IRISL IRGC Khātam al- Anbiyā Abdollāh Abdollāhī IRGC 2010 Esḥāq Jahāngīrī IRGC IRGC IRGC Touse e-ye E temād Shahriyār Mehstān Setād-e Ejrāī-ye Farmān-e Emām Sherkat-e Gostaresh-e Elektronīk-e Mobīn-e Īrān 78 Gorūh-e Pīshgāmān-e Kavīr-e Yazd 36

63 IRGC 1 JCPOA JCPOA Alī Lārījānī IRGC Qāsem Soleimānī JCPOA IRGC JCPOA

64 GDP 7.4% GDP 7.2% Iran Economic Outlook, Focus Economics, February 7, 2017, accessed February 10, BBC Persian persian/iran-features , accessed December 9, Ebrahim Mohseni, Nancy Gallagher and Clay Ramsay, Iranian Public Opinion, One Year after the Nuclear Deal, July 2016, pp. 12, 18, IranianPOOneYearAfter-FINAL pdf, accessed August 27, , BBC Persian 1 JCPOA accessed January 19, accessed January 19, Nick Kostov The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2015, 0, accessed January 20, Jay Solomon The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2013, accessed January 20, CNN.co.jp 80 accessed January 20, Gregory Viscusi 520 Boloomberg, January 28, 2016, accessed January 20, BBC Persian accessed December 18, Laura Rozen, Tillerson Faces Togh Questions on Iran, Russia, Al-Monitor, January 11, 2017, html#ixzz4ybaph5kg, accessed January 19, 2017; Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, How Rex Tillerson s Oil Industry Politics Could Boost the Iran Deal, Brouse & Bazaar, December 10, 2016, bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2016/12/10/new-secretary-of-state-rex-tillerson-doesnt-believe-insanctions, accessed December 18, Austin Wright and Jeremy Herb, Mattis Breaks with Trump on Iran, Russia, POLITICO, January 12, 2017, accessed February 10, 2017; Paul McLeary, Splitting from Trump, Defense Pick Mattis Slams Russia, Supports Iran Deal, Foreign Policy, January 12, 2017, accessed February 10, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, Sara Mazloumsaki and Angela Dewan, Iran World s Biggest State Sponsor of Terrorism, Mattis Says, CNN, February 4, 2017, accessed February 10, Russia Today: RT 2015 RT 2014 Flynn Intel Group2014

65 Colin Powell US: Trump Names Michael Glynn National Security Adviser, Al Jazeera News, November 19, 2016, accessed December 18, Michael T. Flynn, The Field of Fight: How We Can Win the Global War Against Radical Islam and Its Allies, New York: St. Martin s Press, United Nations Security Council, Resolution 2231 (2015) Adopted by the Security Council at its 7488th meeting, 20 July 2015, accesed July 25, mainichi.jp/articles/ /k00/00e/030/176000c, accessed December 18, BBC Persian JCPOA persian/iran , accessed January 11, United Nations Security Council, Resolution 2231 (2015): Ballistic Missile-related Transfers and Activities, accessed January 31, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, Sara Mazloumsaki and Angela Dewan, Iran World s Biggest State Sponsor of Terrorism, Mattis Says, CNN, February 4, 2017, accessed February 8, BBC Persian accessed January 26, 2017; Iran Nonnuclear Sanctions Act of 2017, D0B00D825E809D59437CC24F3FEA4FC0.hey17084.pdf, accessed January 31, 2017; Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, 31 CFR Part 561 Iranian Financial Sanctions Regulations, accessed Februaryb 16, BBC Persian JCPOA accessed January 19, BBC Persian accessed January 31, Ibid BBC Persian com/persian/iran-features , accessed February 8, BBC Persian bbc.com/persian/iran , accessed January 27, BBC Persian accessed February 8, BBC Persian accessed February 8, Russia, Iran Interest Conflict in Syria, Middle East Monitor, December 27, 2016, middleeastmonitor.com/ russia-iran-interest-conflict-in-syria/, accessed January 31, SRID BBC Persian accessed July 5, Moḥammadja far Montaẓerī

66 BBC Persian accessed October 17, 2016; Iran s Prosecutor General Tries to Link Imprisoned Rights Activists with Evil Triangle of Nuclear Deal, International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, November 1, 2016, narges-mohammadi-judiciary-challenge/, accessed January 31, BBC Persian accessed October 17, 2016; BBC Persian 45 accessed October 29, BBC Persian accessed January 9, PC PC com/ /hyundai_heavy_industry/, accessed February 8, NITC Willing to Place Orders with High-Level Domestic Firms, Financial Tribune, February 2, 2017, articles/energy/58716/nitc-willing-to-place-orders-with-high-level-domestic-firms, accessed March 5, BBC Persian IRGC accessed December 13, BBC Persian IRGC accessed December 16, 2016; BBC Persian IRGC accessed December 16, 2016.

67

68 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi: AKP Fethullah Gülen AKP European Union: EU Islamic State: IS Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: PKK North Atlantic Treaty Organization: NATO AKP AKP

69 1 AKP 11 AKP AKP EU 300 AKP Ahmet Davutoğlu Binali Yıldırım AKP EU Pelikan Dosyası 2 Cemil Barslas AKP AKP AKP 11.9% 40 3 Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi: MHP 10.8% 59 4 Halkların Demokratik Partisi: HDP MHP Devlet Bahçeli PKK PKK Teyrêbazên Azadiya Kurdistan: TAK 10%

70 MHP AKP AKP MHP AKP MHP IS Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat: PYD Yekîneyên Parastina Gel: YPG Syrian Democratic Forces: SDF IS IS PYD PKK PYD PYD PYD 5 Bashshār al-asad IS PYD 8 13 IS Joe Biden 9 4 IS

71 PYD YPG IS 8 31 İbrahim Kalın PYD YPG IS HIMARS IS PYD YPG IS IS % % 7 93% Murat Yetkin 4 Hulusi

72 4 Akar 6 Cavit Çağlar Vladimir Putin Yuri Ushakov Ramazan Abdulatipov 4 30 Nursultan Nazarbayev Valery Gerasimov Andrey Karlov 9 22 Mevlüt Mert Altıntaş 3 4 AKP AKP AKP

73 PKK PKK TAK TAK TAK PKK PYD TAK PKK IS 11 IS 2 IS IS IS Mustafa Dokmacı 12 IS IS IS Yunus Durmaz IS IS 5 IS Akhmed Chatayev 13 Reina

74 Abdulkadir Masharipov 14 IS United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: UNHCR EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU

75 IS PYD PYD PYD Hillary Clinton 7/15 Donald Trump 17 PKK TAK PKK 2, EU EU AKP AKP

76 4 1 Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı: MİT Hakan Fidan PKK IS PKK Andrei Akulov, Moscow Declaration: Russia, Turkey and Iran Join Together to End Syria s Tragedy, Strategic Culture, 21 December, Turizm rakamları dibe vurdu, Cumhuriyet, 31 Temmuz, Okan Yardımcı, Energy Cooperation in the History of Turkish-Russian Relations, ( naturalgaseurope. com/energy-cooperation-in-the-history-of-turkish-russian-relations-24672), Natural Gas World, July 15, 2015, Murat Yetkin, Story of secret diplomacy that ended Russia-Turkey jet crisis, Hürriyet Daily News, 9 August, Mustafa Kırıkçıoğlu, Russian army chief s visit to Turkey signals further collaboration in Syria, Daily Sabah, 15 September, Turkish Chief of Staff Hulusi Akar visits Russia for talks on military cooperation, Daily Sabah, 1 November, Newsweek /stories/ world/2016/12/1210.php IS IS IS Turkey charges 13 over deadly Istanbul airport attack, The Telegraph, 3 July, Turkish police hunt Reina assaulter after 3-day track down, Daily Sabah, 17 January, URL ( rogressive+report%27), Newsweek stories/ world/2016/11/post-6430.php 18 Berkay Mandıracı, Turkey s PKK Conflict: The Death Toll, ( interactives/ turkey/), International Crisis Group, 20 July, 2016 (last update 9 January, 2017),

77

78 Islamic State: IS Ḥaydar al- Abādī 2016 IS 2017 IS IS IS IS 2014 IS IS IS IS

79 IS Popular Mobilization Unit: PMU IS IS IS IS IS PMU IS km km 2003 IS 1,000km IS

80 , Brett McGurk IS 8 15 Kurdistan Regional Government: KRG 5 KRG Counter Terrorism Service: CTS IS 5,000

81 Nūrī Kāmil al-mālikī 2014 KRG Donald Trump 2 PMU 2014 IS IS 2 IS CTS % 70% 9 PMU Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: IRGC PMU CTS

82 5 PMU PMU 3 IS 9 Mas ūd Barzānī KRG IS IS IS

83 4 IS PMU Athīr al-nujayfī 14 Tony Blinken IS km 1, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Binali Yıldırım

84 KRG 16 KRG IS KRG 20 Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: PKK PKK PKK PKK 2014 IS PKK Yekîneyên Parastina Gel: YPG PKK YPG Yekîneyên Berxwedana Şengal: YBŞ PMU 18 KRG IS

85 2 IS CTS IS IS KRG IS IS IS KRG PMU

86 5 PKK 20 1 IS IS 2 IS PMU Stephen Kalin and Dmitry Zhdannikov, Exclusive: U.S. helped clinch Iraq oil deal to keep Mosul battle on track, Reuters, Oct 3, 2016, [ 6 IS KRG KRG 2014 KRG KRG 55 17% 2015 KRG KRG KRG 7 Ben Kesling, U.S. Troops Now Inside Mosul, Pentagon Says, Wall Street Journal, 5 Jan, 2017, [ 8 Michael Knights, The Long Haul: Rebooting U.S. Security Cooperation in Iraq, Policy Focus 137, Jan 2015, [ 9 Zana Gulmohamad, Unseating the Caliphate: Contrasting the Challenges of Liberating Fallujah and Mosul, CTC Sentinel, Oct 2016, [ 10 Hayder al-khoei, Syria, Iraq and the Struggle for Power: Intertwined Futures, Research Paper: Middle East and North Africa Programme, Nov 2016, [ 11 Rudaw, Kurdish president: We have deal with US and Baghdad to keep reclaimed lands, Nov 17, 2016, [

87 12 Amnesty International, Banished and Dispossessed: Forced Displacement and Deliberate Destruction in Northern Iraq, Jan 2016, [ forced_displacement_and_deliberate_destruction_in_northern_iraq.pdf]; Human Rights Watch, Marked with an X : Iraqi Kurdish Forces Destruction of Villages, Homes in Conflict with ISIS, Nov 2016, [ 13 Amnesty International, Absolute Impunity Militia Rule in Iraq, Oct 2014 [ sites/default/files/absolute_impunity_iraq_report.pdf]. 14 Zana Gulmohamad, op.cit Today s Zaman, Oct. 3, Christine McCaffray van den Toorn, The Wars After the War for Sinjar: How Washington Can Avert a New Civil War, War on the Rocks, Jun 20, 2016, [ Rāid al-jubūrī Ṣuhayb al-rāwī

88 Muḥammad bin Salmān Āl Sa ūd Salmān bin Abd al- Azīz Āl Sa ūd National Transformation Program: NTP 2 information technology: IT 9 G

89 5 4 PDCA plan-do-check-act cycle Sulṭān bin Salmān Āl Sa ūd Abd al- Azīz bin Salmān Āl Sa ūd Council of Political and Security Affairs:

90 CPSA Council of Economic and Development Affairs: CEDA Muḥammad bin Nāif Āl Sa ūd Bandar bin Sulṭān Āl Sa ūd Khālid bin Bandar Āl Sa ūd Sa ūd bin Fayṣal Āl Sa ūd Ādil al-jubayr Abd Allāh bin Abd al- Azīz Āl Sa ūdmut ib bin

91 Abd Allāh Āl Sa ūd Alī al-na imī Khālid al-fāliḥ Saudi Research and Marketing Group: SRMG Aḥmad bin Aqīl al-khaṭīb SRMG Sulṭān bin Abd al- Azīz Āl Sa ūd Organization of Islamic Cooperation: OIC

92 NTP Social Network Service: SNS Muqrin

93 bin Abd al- Azīz Āl Sa ūd Ṭalāl bin Abd al- Azīz Āl Sa ūd Central Intelligence Agency: CIA 2030 NTP % % % , ,200 2, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency: SAMA International Monetary Fund: IMF

94 % Value Added Tax: VAT %

95 % 5% 18 SNS Abd al- Azīz Āl al-shaykh

96 NTP NTP Al-Ru ya al-mamlaka al- Arabīya al-su ūdīya 2030, 2 Saudi Vision 2030, jp.pdf 5 Transcript: Interview with Muhammad bin Salman, The Economist, Jan. 6, 2016, economist.com/saudi_interview; Gassan Al-Kibsi et. al., Moving Saudi Arabia s Economy beyond Oil, McKinsey Global Institute, Dec. 2015,

97 mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/moving-saudi-arabias-economy-beyond-oil 6 Saudi Arabia s Vision 2030: How Analysts Reacted, Al-Arabiyah English, Apr. 25, Howanalysts-reacted.html Andrea Thomas, Germany s BND Criticizes Saudi Arabia s Role in Arab World, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2, 2015, 9 Patrick Cockburn, Saudi Arabia s Dream of Becoming the Dominant Arab and Muslim Power in the World Has Gone Down in Flames, Independent, Jan. 6, 2017, saudi-arabia-syria-yemen-oil-prince-salman-down-in-flames-a html 10 Matthew Nitch Smith, Inside the Incredible Journey of Millennial Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman s Rise to Power, Business Insider, Apr. 26, 2016, 11 Mark Mazeetti and Ben Hubbard, Rise of Saudi Prince Shatters Decades of Royal Tradition, New York Times, Oct. 15, 2016, David Ignatius, A 30-year-old Saudi Prince Could Jump-start the Kingdom Or Drive It Off A Cliff, The Washington Post, Jun. 28, 2016, 13 World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016, IMF, Oct. 2016, ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/weoselser.aspx?c=456&t=1 14 Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority, Monthly Bulletin, Oct. 2016, Oct 2016, pdf 15 Glada Lahn and Paul Stevens, Burning Oil to Keep Cool: The Hidden Energy Crisis in Saudi Arabia, Chatham House, Dec. 2011, Energy,%20Environment%20and%20Development/1211pr_lahn_stevens.pdf 16 Saudi Arabia to Raise Military Spending 6 Pct-budget, Reuters, Dec. 22, 2016, article/saudi-economy-budget-military-idusl5n1eh3cu 17 Peter Walker, Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman Buys 452m Yacht But Slashes Public Spending, Independent, Oct. 18, 2016, 18 Muddassir Quamar, Municipal Elections in Saudi Arabia, 2015, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, Vol. 3 No. 4, Dec., 2016, pp Haia Can t Chase, Arrest Suspects, Arab News, Apr. 14, 2016, news/ Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, Saudi Arabia and the Movie Theatre, Concerts Arguments, Asharq Al-Awsat, 15 Jan. 2017,

98 Muḥammad Mursī = Abd al-fattāḥ al-sīsī 2016 International Monetary Fund: IMF IMF 4 1 Muḥammad Ḥusnī Mubārak Adlī Manṣūr 1 IMF 120

99 IMF

100 7 Jamāl Abd al-nāṣir, Nasser 67 Salmān b. Abd al- Azīz Āṣifa al-ḥazm

101

102 7 91% 95.1 % 96% 97% Nael Shama, Egyptian Foreign Policy from Mubarak to Morsi: Against the National Interest, Routledge Studies in Middle Eastern Politics, 2014, p Vladimir Putin IMF

103 Nabīl Fahmī Sergey Lavrov Anwar al-sādāt, Sadat Ṭāriq al-mullā 2017 Khalīfa Ḥaftar

104 a IMF IMF IMF 10 IMF Value Added Tax: VAT11 b

105 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: AIIB G China State Construction Engineering Corporation China Fortune Land Development Company: CFLD 20

106

107 IMF = Yāsir al- Umda Ṣidqī Ṣubḥī IMF

108 Ahram online, March 22, Mandour, Maged., Egypt s Shift from Saudi Arabia to Russia, The Carnegie Middle East Center, November 3, 2016, [ 7 Ibid Al-Maṣrī al-yawm, IMF [ Japanese/Publish/Periodicals/Me_review/pdf/201612_01.pdf]

109 Adli, Amr., The Military Economy and the Future of the Private Sector in Egypt, The Carnegie Middle East Center, September 6, Brown, Nathan. and Hamzawy, Amr., An Egyptian Court Just Struck Down Part of a Repressive New Law. Here s What that Means, The Carnegie Middle East Center, December 7, 2016, [ carnegieendowment.org/2016/12/07/egyptian-court-just-struck-down-part-of-repressive-new-law.-here-swhat-that-means-pub-66380] Walīd Badr Hishām al- Ashmāwī

110 8 8 Barack Obama Donald Trump 2017 Islamic State: IS/ Islamic State of Iraq and Syria: ISIS/ Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant: ISIL /18

111 Israel Defense Forces: IDF Gideon Plan: GP 1 5 IDF GP 2015 IDF IDF GP 1 2, % F GP GP IDF 8 2 GP IDF IDF IDF Strategy: IDFS 33 IDF Dan Meridor 10 IDFS

112 8 IDFS National Goals IDFS Non-State Entity: NSE Sub-State: SS IDF 2014 Protective Edge 15 NSE/SS IDFS Benjamin Netanyahu IDF

113 19 P5+1 5 GP IDFS 5 IDFS NSE/SS P5+1 NSE/SS 3 IDFS Routine EmergencyFull-Scale Warfare NSE/SS Cast Lead 2012 Pillar of Defense 2014 Protective Edge IDFS NSE/SS Cumulative Deterrence Deterrence Early Warning Military Decisiveness 20

114 8 21 IDF NSE/SS Campaign between Wars: CBW 4 IDF IDF 22 NSE/SS CBW NSE/SS IDFS Victories

115 4 Defense Israel Defense Forces IDF IDF IDFS IDF IDFS IDF Command Control Communication Computer Intelligence: C4I

116 8 Cyber Arm Command 3 IDF 5 GP IDFS IDF Menachem Begin Ariel Sharon Rafael Eitan IDF IDF IDF

117 Garrison State Inter-States Warfare High Intensity Conflicts: HIC Intra-State Warfare Low Intensity Conflicts: LIC IDF IDF LIC IDF Neo-Liberal 1990 Revolution in Military Affairs: RMA

118 8 IDF 1990 HIC Frontal States: FS NSE LIC LIC 2007 NSE IDF IDF 1990 RMA GP IDFS IDF 2009 GP IDFS

119 IDF 1990 IDF 3 C4I Remotely Manned Aircraft GP IDF IDF GP Johanan Locker IDF 14IDF 9 IDF IDF 10 Shaul Mofaz 1950 David Ben-Grion IDF IDF 10 1

120 IDF IDFS GP IDFS 19 IDFS IDF IDF Dan Halutz 23 24

121