Graduate School of Policy and Management, Doshisha University 93 タイにおける教育と人的資本形成の問題点 : 概要 1 はじめに 1952 2011 60 ( ) 6.2 (Jitsuchon 2012:13) 2011 (World Bank 2011) (2009: 26-27) 13 ( ) 1 (URL 1) 2000 42.3% 2014 10.5% 2 UNDP(URL 2:Table 6) 2005/2006 3 1.0% (6.3% 2013 ) (5.9% 2012 ) (3.9% 2013/2014 ) (HDI) 2015 0.74 3 0.68 ~ 0.69 (URL 2:Table 1) 1997 1997 11 4 1963-1993 7 (Jitsuchon 2012:13) (middle-income trap) 1 (2009:1) 1950 7 25 1960-1997 2 Jitsuchon(2012:13) (non-municipal) 1986 52.6% 2010 10.4 (municipal) 25.3% 2.6 3 (multidimensional poverty headcount) URL 2
94 2 中所得の罠 の定義 : タイは罠に陥っているのか? Gill and Kharas(2007:17) Kharas and Kohli(2011:281-282) World Bank(2013:12) ( ) Eichengreen, Park and Shin(2013) (2005 )10,000-11,000 15,000-16,000 2 Aiyar et al.(2013) (World Bank 2013:12; 2015:93-95)) World Bank(2013:12) 1960 2008 1960 101 2008 13 1960 2008 (Jitsuchon 2012:14) (2015:94-95) Jitsuchon(2012:14) 1994-1995 Aiyar et al.(2013:table A.2.1.) 1955-2009 5 138 1995-2000 1990 3 中所得の罠 回避のために労働力に求められるスキル 2 Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017:2)
95 Jitsuchon(2012:15) ( ) Aiyar et al.(2013:figure 7) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( GDP ) ( GDP ) 5 7 Jimenez, Nguyen and Patrinos(2012:2) Acemoglu and Autor(2010:1) (task) ADB (2008:62) Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos(2012:5-10) STEM STEM Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017:12) GDP R&D ADB(2008:67, 69-70) Schultz(1961:1) Romer(1990a, 1990b)
96 4 タイの教育と 中所得の罠 Hanushek and Woessmann(2008:627-628) 3 2 Eichengreen, Park and Shin(2013) Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017) 4 5 ( 12 ) (1960-2010 ) (1985-2010 ) Hanushek and Woessmann(2008:608-609) (cognitive skills) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 4 5 Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017:3) premature slowdown
97 表 1 タイとフィリピンの平均就学年数 (15 歳 -24 歳 ) 1950 1970 1990 2000 2010 3.47 4.02 7.26 8.35 10.48 3.04 5.82 7.99 8.53 9.10 URL3 Hanushek and Woessmann(2008:652-657) 15 19 2000 6 15 19 71% 9 6 4 9 ( 1) 2000 ( 1) 9 15 19 World Bank(2012) 3 2006 2009 PISA (15 ) 43 ~ 45 (reading) PISA PISA (World Bank 2012:19, 32) 2006 2009 図 1 タイとフィリピンにおける教育欠如 (15 歳 -19 歳 ) の類型 2000 Hanushek and Woessmann(2008:Figure 14) 6 2002 PISA2003 PISA(Programme for International Student Assessment) OECD 15 ( )
98 (World Bank 2012:2) TIMSS 7 1999 2004 2007 ( 8 ) 2007 34 1999 45 1999 2007 8 8 17 ( ) (World Bank 2012:20-21) PISA ( ) World Bank(2012:21-24) 2006 PISA 2000 Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos(2012: 5-10) 8 PISA(2000 2003 2006 2009 ) TIMSS(1995 1999 2003 2007 ) 1999 2007 PISA TIMSS (World Economic Forum) 9 ( ) Psacharopoulos and Patrinos(2004) 98 1 10 ( OECD ) (10 ) (Jimenez, Nguyen, and 7 TIMSS(Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) 4 TIMSS PISA 15 (World Bank 2012:31) PISA 6 8 2009 83 101% 76 45 OECD (72%) (100%) (Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos 2012:6) 9 (business leaders) ( ) World Economic Forum(2017)
99 Patrinos 2012:10) 1985 ( 2) 1980 15 7 (Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos 2012:11) 10 2016 10 ( ) ( ) 346 204 60 (URL7) 3 25 1 3 3 4.0 11 表 2 タイにおける教育の私的収益率 1985 1995 1998 10-11% Hawley(2004:Table 3) 2002 15 Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos(2012:11) 2009 13.5 2002 GNI (2015 ) 25 2010 2015 2010 2015 5,690 US 7.3 7.9 13.3 13.6 1,990 US 7.5 8.0 12.0 12.6 URL2 URL5 表 3 タイとベトナムの比較 10 TPP( ) 2017 1 TPP 2017 3 15 BOI( ) Senior Executive Advisor 11 4.0 10 ( ) ( 2017)
100 12 ( ) 4 2012 PISA (15 ) 2012 2015 GNI PISA 15 82.6 (2015 ) 79.1% (URL5) World Bank(2012:26) PISA TIMSS (ONESQA: Office for National Education Standards and Quality Assessment) 2008 15,515 20 3,243 (Lounkaew 2013: 213) : PISA2012 PISA2015 PISA2015 PISA2012 33.6% 46.7% 13.1 6.7% 5.9% -0.8 URL6 表 4 15 歳の生徒の習熟度 : PISA2012 PISA2015 PISA2015 PISA2012 33.0% 50.0% 17.0 9.4% 13.8% 4.4 : PISA2012 PISA2015 PISA2015 PISA2012 49.7% 53.8% 4.4 14.2% 19.1% 4.9 12 ( 2017)
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