Q4-1 テキスト P83 多重共線性が発生する回帰 320000 280000 240000 200000 6000 4000 160000 120000 2000 0-2000 -4000 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 R e s i dual A c tual Fi tted Dependent Variable: C90 Date: 10/27/05 Time: 13:43 Sample: 1973 1998 Included observations: 26 DI90 0.650151 0.060084 10.82074 0.0000 AST90 0.034907 0.011717 2.979145 0.0069 LP90 147.1141 32.87611 4.474804 0.0002 C 20082.73 7534.474 2.665446 0.0141 R-squared 0.998244 Mean dependent var 211997.9 Adjusted R-squared 0.998005 S.D. dependent var 50740.35 S.E. of regression 2266.404 Akaike info criterion 18.43042 Sum squared resid 1.13E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.62397 Log likelihood -235.5954 F-statistic 4169.535 Durbin-Watson stat 0.966195 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 242
説明変数間の単相関行列 (DI,AST,LP) 1 0.985975 0.652599 0.985975 1 0.731731 0.652599 0.731731 1 その逆行列 56.67452-62.0273 8.401561-62.0273 70.03821-10.7701 8.401561-10.7701 3.397993 DI と AST において多重共線性が見られる 金融資産残高 (AST) を除く単相関行列 1 0.652599 0.652599 1 その逆行列 1.741812-1.1367-1.1367 1.741812 AST を除くと多重共線性の問題は解決 ご参考 1 説明変数 DI を除いた回帰 AST90 0.191994 0.007129 26.93263 0.0000 LP90-331.2666 90.80755-3.648008 0.0013 C 124053.4 3820.716 32.46864 0.0000 R-squared 0.982355 Mean dependent var 246576.8 Adjusted R-squared 0.980821 S.D. dependent var 56794.18 1 VIF = = 56. 67 1 0.982355 2 説明変数 AST90を除いた回帰 DI90 5.048419 0.187446 26.93263 0.0000 LP90 1958.842 418.8728 4.676460 0.0001 C -617161.0 37645.93-16.39383 0.0000 R-squared 0.985722 Mean dependent var 715772.0 Adjusted R-squared 0.984481 S.D. dependent var 323751.1 1 VIF = = 70. 03 1 0.985722 243
Q4-2-1 テキスト P86 構造変化の検定 ( 予備検討 ) 500000 450000 400000 RGDP 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 M2CD 8 4 0 R -4-8 -12 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 M2CD 244
構造変化の検定 60000 40000 20000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 0-20000 -40000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Residual Actual Fitted Dependent Variable: M2CD Date: 10/27/05 Time: 14:03 Sample: 1968 1998 Included observations: 31 RGDP 1.454768 0.031912 45.58734 0.0000 R -1465.762 929.6090-1.576751 0.1261 C -157580.2 10320.61-15.26850 0.0000 R-squared 0.988809 Mean dependent var 322823.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.988009 S.D. dependent var 151162.3 S.E. of regression 16552.68 Akaike info criterion 22.35825 Sum squared resid 7.67E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.49702 Log likelihood -343.5529 F-statistic 1236.956 Durbin-Watson stat 0.523323 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 245
One-Step Forecast Test の結果 60000 40000 20000 0.00-20000 -40000.05.10.15 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 One-Step Probability Recursive Residuals Q4-2-2 テキスト P88 1) 定数項ダミーのみ加えたケース Dependent Variable: M2CD Date: 10/27/05 Time: 14:10 Sample: 1968 1998 Included observations: 31 RGDP 1.289913 0.055059 23.42777 0.0000 R -1010.942 800.3891-1.263063 0.2174 D6885-37561.03 10920.26-3.439572 0.0019 C -81998.79 23657.24-3.466118 0.0018 R-squared 0.992218 Mean dependent var 322823.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.991354 S.D. dependent var 151162.3 S.E. of regression 14055.94 Akaike info criterion 22.05939 Sum squared resid 5.33E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.24442 Log likelihood -337.9206 F-statistic 1147.558 Durbin-Watson stat 0.780598 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 246
2) 実質 GDP にのみ係数ダミーを加えたケース Dependent Variable: M2CD Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:20 Sample: 1968 1998 Included observations: 31 RGDP 1.336731 0.035485 37.66987 0.0000 D6885*RGDP -0.115513 0.025230-4.578362 0.0001 R -645.7005 732.5227-0.881475 0.3858 C -103090.2 14277.00-7.220714 0.0000 R-squared 0.993700 Mean dependent var 322823.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.993000 S.D. dependent var 151162.3 S.E. of regression 12647.40 Akaike info criterion 21.84821 Sum squared resid 4.32E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.03324 Log likelihood -334.6472 F-statistic 1419.514 Durbin-Watson stat 0.920258 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 3) 実質金利のみに係数ダミーを加えたケース Dependent Variable: M2CD Date: 10/27/05 Time: 14:12 Sample: 1968 1998 Included observations: 31 RGDP 1.408413 0.047633 29.56814 0.0000 R 1754.711 2645.123 0.663376 0.5127 D6885*R -3254.820 2507.011-1.298287 0.2052 C -146984.8 13060.30-11.25432 0.0000 R-squared 0.989466 Mean dependent var 322823.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.988296 S.D. dependent var 151162.3 S.E. of regression 16353.69 Akaike info criterion 22.36221 Sum squared resid 7.22E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.54724 Log likelihood -342.6142 F-statistic 845.3894 Durbin-Watson stat 0.562440 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 247
4) 上記 1)~3) のダミー項を組み合わせたケース Dependent Variable: M2CD Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:25 Sample: 1968 1998 Included observations: 31 RGDP 1.466420 0.074342 19.72543 0.0000 D6885*RGDP -0.332992 0.089635-3.714971 0.0010 R -7488.380 3000.767-2.495489 0.0195 D6885*R 7804.734 3064.510 2.546813 0.0174 C -136291.2 38646.46-3.526617 0.0017 D6885 54856.48 40653.97 1.349351 0.1893 R-squared 0.996352 Mean dependent var 322823.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.995622 S.D. dependent var 151162.3 S.E. of regression 10001.68 Akaike info criterion 21.43088 Sum squared resid 2.50E+09 Schwarz criterion 21.70842 Log likelihood -326.1786 F-statistic 1365.544 Durbin-Watson stat 1.564455 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 解答例 ( 最もあてはまりがよいと思われるモデル ): 実質 GDP と金利に係数ダミー付加 Dependent Variable: M2CD Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:28 Sample: 1968 1998 Included observations: 31 RGDP 1.374382 0.030029 45.76778 0.0000 D6885*RGDP -0.220390 0.033234-6.631475 0.0000 R -9962.255 2412.770-4.128969 0.0003 D6885*R 10168.40 2553.885 3.981544 0.0005 C -86718.69 12182.11-7.118527 0.0000 R-squared 0.996086 Mean dependent var 322823.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.995484 S.D. dependent var 151162.3 S.E. of regression 10158.31 Akaike info criterion 21.43666 Sum squared resid 2.68E+09 Schwarz criterion 21.66795 Log likelihood -327.2683 F-statistic 1654.254 Durbin-Watson stat 1.838179 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 248
演習 ( テキスト P89) 1) 10.8 10.4 10.0.10.05 9.6 9.2 8.8.00 -.05 -.10 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 R e s i d ual A c tu a l Fi tted Dependent Variable: LOG(TAXH) Date: 10/27/05 Time: 14:18 LOG(YNH) 0.916294 0.035528 25.79047 0.0000 LOG(YAH) 0.616127 0.044149 13.95566 0.0000 C -7.299619 0.335175-21.77856 0.0000 R-squared 0.992242 Mean dependent var 9.977606 Adjusted R-squared 0.991504 S.D. dependent var 0.472175 S.E. of regression 0.043523 Akaike info criterion -3.314578 Sum squared resid 0.039780 Schwarz criterion -3.167321 Log likelihood 42.77494 F-statistic 1343.016 Durbin-Watson stat 1.341033 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 249
2) 不均一分散の検定 White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 2.395524 Prob. F(5,18) 0.078376 Obs*R-squared 9.589250 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.087746 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Date: 10/27/05 Time: 14:19 帰無仮説 : 均一分散 が 10% 水準で棄却 不均一分散あり C -1.954484 0.687821-2.841560 0.0108 LOG(YNH) 0.470146 0.153957 3.053760 0.0068 (LOG(YNH))^2-0.019967 0.008311-2.402340 0.0273 (LOG(YNH))*(LOG(YAH)) 0.002559 0.015651 0.163486 0.8720 LOG(YAH) -0.188140 0.131560-1.430069 0.1698 (LOG(YAH))^2 0.007606 0.014062 0.540882 0.5952 R-squared 0.399552 Mean dependent var 0.001657 Adjusted R-squared 0.232761 S.D. dependent var 0.001906 S.E. of regression 0.001669 Akaike info criterion -9.740580 Sum squared resid 5.02E-05 Schwarz criterion -9.446067 Log likelihood 122.8870 F-statistic 2.395524 Durbin-Watson stat 1.520791 Prob(F-statistic) 0.078376 250
3) 構造変化の検定 (One-Step Forecast Test の結果 ).00.05 構造変化のポイント.12.08.04.00 -.04 -.08 -.12.10.15 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 One-Step Probability Recursive Residuals 1992 年 ~1998 年に 1 それ以前は 0 の値をとるダミー変数 d9298 という名で作成 ( 上記グラフより構造変化が 1992 年に起こった バブル崩壊? と仮定) 1) 定数項ダミー Dependent Variable: LOG(TAXH) Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:41 LOG(YNH) 1.061492 0.069950 15.17493 0.0000 LOG(YAH) 0.506864 0.061550 8.235009 0.0000 D9298-0.090662 0.038755-2.339333 0.0298 C -7.999869 0.426872-18.74067 0.0000 R-squared 0.993909 Mean dependent var 9.977606 Adjusted R-squared 0.992995 S.D. dependent var 0.472175 S.E. of regression 0.039518 Akaike info criterion -3.473111 Sum squared resid 0.031233 Schwarz criterion -3.276769 Log likelihood 45.67733 F-statistic 1087.854 Durbin-Watson stat 1.433099 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 251
2) 雇用者所得のみに係数ダミーを付加 Dependent Variable: LOG(TAXH) Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:42 LOG(YNH) 1.062695 0.070112 15.15715 0.0000 D9298*LOG(YNH) -0.007186 0.003056-2.351136 0.0291 LOG(YAH) 0.505834 0.061677 8.201384 0.0000 C -8.004476 0.426957-18.74773 0.0000 R-squared 0.993922 Mean dependent var 9.977606 Adjusted R-squared 0.993011 S.D. dependent var 0.472175 S.E. of regression 0.039475 Akaike info criterion -3.475282 Sum squared resid 0.031166 Schwarz criterion -3.278940 Log likelihood 45.70339 F-statistic 1090.233 Durbin-Watson stat 1.434848 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 3) 財産所得のみに係数ダミーを付加 Dependent Variable: LOG(TAXH) Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:44 LOG(YNH) 1.052426 0.068827 15.29082 0.0000 LOG(YAH) 0.514568 0.060681 8.479944 0.0000 D9298*LOG(YAH) -0.008763 0.003904-2.244519 0.0363 C -7.964526 0.426591-18.67015 0.0000 R-squared 0.993803 Mean dependent var 9.977606 Adjusted R-squared 0.992874 S.D. dependent var 0.472175 S.E. of regression 0.039859 Akaike info criterion -3.455902 Sum squared resid 0.031776 Schwarz criterion -3.259560 Log likelihood 45.47082 F-statistic 1069.179 Durbin-Watson stat 1.423819 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 252
4) 雇用者所得と財産所得の両方に係数ダミーを付加 Dependent Variable: LOG(TAXH) Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:45 LOG(YNH) 1.263253 0.080889 15.61719 0.0000 D9298*LOG(YNH) -0.289037 0.081575-3.543225 0.0022 LOG(YAH) 0.314118 0.074393 4.222432 0.0005 D9298*LOG(YAH) 0.356713 0.103195 3.456702 0.0026 C -8.583746 0.381949-22.47352 0.0000 R-squared 0.996269 Mean dependent var 9.977606 Adjusted R-squared 0.995483 S.D. dependent var 0.472175 S.E. of regression 0.031733 Akaike info criterion -3.879844 Sum squared resid 0.019133 Schwarz criterion -3.634416 Log likelihood 51.55813 F-statistic 1268.289 Durbin-Watson stat 1.719299 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 253
4) につき不均一分散がなくなったか検定を実施 White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 0.684629 Prob. F(8,15) 0.699184 Obs*R-squared 6.419329 Prob. Chi-Square(8) 0.600369 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Date: 11/11/05 Time: 17:47 帰無仮説 : 均一分散 を棄却できず 均一分散 C -0.584351 0.565673-1.033018 0.3180 LOG(YNH) 0.162867 0.183451 0.887796 0.3887 (LOG(YNH))^2-0.006666 0.007564-0.881323 0.3920 D9298*LOG(YNH) 0.305768 0.494304 0.618583 0.5455 (D9298*LOG(YNH))^2-0.012526 0.020018-0.625759 0.5409 LOG(YAH) -0.083150 0.160274-0.518800 0.6115 (LOG(YAH))^2 0.004220 0.008358 0.504883 0.6210 D9298*LOG(YAH) -0.371517 0.628256-0.591347 0.5631 (D9298*LOG(YAH))^2 0.018524 0.032025 0.578424 0.5716 R-squared 0.267472 Mean dependent var 0.000797 Adjusted R-squared -0.123210 S.D. dependent var 0.001145 S.E. of regression 0.001213 Akaike info criterion -10.31073 Sum squared resid 2.21E-05 Schwarz criterion -9.868962 Log likelihood 132.7288 F-statistic 0.684629 Durbin-Watson stat 2.602916 Prob(F-statistic) 0.699184 254