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1 Cognitive Studies, 19(2), (June 2012) When a system gives outputs that you do not predict you regard those as unexpected events and try to identify the causes affecting those events In this study, we try to understand how people identify the causes affecting unexpected events by using a card magic called the three card monte as an experimental material. In our experiments, the participants were required to find out the tricks by watching a video in which a magician plays the magic. We focused on two clues related to cause identification. The first is distinctiveness of events; and the second is availability of feedback information. The results of the experiments showed that the distinctiveness of events affected the performance of cause identification, whereas the availability of feedback information did not. The process analyses revealed that even if feedback information was not directly given, the participants could perform reasoning for cause identification based on hypothetical information not observed. Keywords: cause identification, troubleshooting, magic trick, unexpected events An Experimental Study on Process of Identifying of Unexpected Events by Using a Magic Trick Task, by Hitoshi Terai (Graduate School of Information Science Nagoya University / CREST, JST), Kazuhisa Miwa (Graduate School of Information Science Nagoya University), and Hisashi Shibata (Graduate School of Information Science Nagoya University) (, 1997)
2 Vol. 19 No TV Appendix A 1 5 TR1 TR2 3 SH1 SH3 1 5 TR1 TR2 SH1 SH3 TR1 SH (Besnard & Cacitti, 2001) Chi, Feltovich, andglaser (1981) Zajchowski and Martin (1993) (Besnard & Cacitti, 2001) (Rizzo, Ferrante, & Bagnara, 1994) 2
3 148 Cognitive Studies June / / 2 SH1 SH3 SH SH SH TR1 TR2 SH1 SH3 SH1 SH3 3 / SH1 SH3 4 1
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5 150 Cognitive Studies June Appendix B χ AIC TR1 TR2 9 SH1 SH3 1 3 / / / / 3 SH1 SH3 SH1 SH3
6 Vol. 19 No. 2 マジック課題を用いた予期しない現象の原因同定過程の分析 図3 表3 151 トリック有無評定値の推移 トリック有無評定値の分散分析の結果 影響は認められないことが確認された いて 弁別性 と 試行数 との間に交互作用が認 められた これに加えて SH3 において 確定情 ターゲット位置テスト 報 の主効果 および 弁別性 と 確定情報 の 次に 序盤 中盤 終盤において ターゲット位 間の交互作用が認められた 置の特定ができた参加者の割合の変化を図 4 に示 確定情報 が与えられる場合に比べ 与えられ す 各要因がターゲット位置特定に及ぼす影響につ ない場合において ターゲット位置の特定が阻害さ いて 前述と同様 3 要因混合 弁別性 高/低 確 れることが予想されたが 確定情報 の影響が認 定情報 有/無 試行数 序盤/中盤/終盤 の分散 められたのは SH3 のみであり その影響は限定的 分析を行った 表 4 であった 一方 すべての区間において ターゲッ すべての区間において 弁別性 と 試行数 の 主効果が有意であり TR1 TR2 および SH3 にお ト位置の特定に対する 弁別性 の影響が認めら れた
7 152 Cognitive Studies 図4 表4 June 2012 ターゲット位置特定の推移 ターゲット位置特定の分散分析の結果 ターゲット位置特定とトリックの絞込の 関連 これまでの分析を通して 弁別性 の要因がト リックの絞込およびターゲットの位置特定に対して た 図 5 ターゲット位置特定試行 ある区間のターゲット位 置テストに対して それ以降の試行で全て正解の位 置を選択した最初の試行 影響を与えていることが明らかとなった 一方 ト 本分析では ターゲット位置特定試行とその直前 リックの絞込とターゲット位置の特定がどのように の試行におけるトリック有無評定値を参加者毎に 関連しながら原因同定に至ったのかについては 明 算出し 3 要因分散分析 弁別性 高/低 確定情 らかにされていない 報 有/無 試行数 ターゲット位置特定前/後 を そこで ターゲット位置特定試行 を以下のよう 実施した 表 5 その結果 トリックの存在しな に定義し ターゲット位置の特定とトリック有無評 い SH1 SH3 において 弁別性 の主効果が確認 定値の変化の関係について 条件間での比較を行っ された また 確定情報 の主効果は確認されず
8 Vol. 19 No. 2 マジック課題を用いた予期しない現象の原因同定過程の分析 図5 表5 153 ターゲット位置特定とトリック有無評定の関係 ターゲット位置特定とトリック有無評定の関係に対する分散分析の結果 試行数 の主効果は SH3 を除くすべての区間で認 却しきれていないことが明らかとなった これらの められた 1 次および 2 次の交互作用は認められな 結果は １ ターゲットの位置の特定が トリック かった 図 5 の結果から 特にトリックが存在する TR2 の区間において ターゲット位置を特定した時点 有無の確定に先んじて進んでいること また ２ 弁別性 の低下が その傾向をより大きくするこ とを示唆している n 試行目 においても 依然トリック有無評定値 は十分に上昇していないことが分かる これに加え 2.3 考 察 て トリックが存在しない SH1 SH3 の区間にお 本実験では 弁別性 の高低と 確定情報 の有 いて 弁別性 が低い条件では ターゲット位置 無を実験的に操作し 原因同定のパフォーマンスお を特定する前後 n-1 から n 試行目 で トリック よびプロセスに与える影響について検討を進めた 有無評定値が十分に低下せず トリックの存在を棄 トリックが存在しない SH1 SH3 においても ト
9 154 Cognitive Studies June / / TR1 SH3 2 F (4, 168) = 2.59, p< F (4, 168) = 7.22, p<.01; F (4, 168) = 3.16, p <.05; F (4, 168) = 11.51, p<.01- F (4, 168) = 0.64, n.s. Ryan - TR1 4 TR2 MSe = 1.57,p <.05 - TR1 TR2 SH3 MSe =1.57,p<.05 - TR1 4 MSe =1.57,p< TR
10 Vol. 19 No (c) (e) - SH1 SH3 TR2 - TR2 TR2 1 (1) A (2) B (3) B (4) B (5) B A TR2 1: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) A, 2-B A TR : TR2
11 156 Cognitive Studies June SH1 3 (1) TR2 1 (2) (3) 3: 2 TR2 3 SH1 SH2 SH3 (1) 2 TR2 (2) 2 SH1 3 (1)1 TR2 (2) TR2 (3) 3 SH1 3 (1)SH1 3 TR2 (2) B A A TR2 4, : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
12 Vol. 19 No : TR2 (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) A (2) B (3) B (4) B (5) B A n 2 n (1) (2) (3) 4.2
13 158 Cognitive Studies June (d) (a, b, c) (rule space) (instance space) (Simon & Lea, 1974) X CT (Lesgold, Rubinson, Feltovitch, Glaser, Klopfer, & Wang, 1988; Morita, Miwa, Kitasaka, Mori, Suenaga, Iwano, Ikeda, & Ishigaki, 2008) (Hardiman, Dufresne, & Mestre, 1989; Zaj-
14 Vol. 19 No chowski & Martin, 1993; Smith, 1992) (Rasmussen, 1983; Reason, 1990; Rizzo, 1987; Rizzo et al., 1994; Norman, 1988; Besnard & Cacitti, 2001) (Besnard & Cacitti, 2001; van Gog, Paas, & van Merriënboer, 2005) van Gog et al. (2005) OS 5.
15 160 Cognitive Studies June 2012 Besnard, D. & Cacitti, L. (2001). Troubleshooting in Mechanics: A Heuristic Matching Process. Cognition, Technology & Work, 3, Chi, M. T. H., Feltovich, P. J., & Glaser, R. (1981). Categorization and Representation of Physics Problems by Experts and Novices. Cognitive Science, 5, Hardiman,P.T.,Dufresne,R., &Mestre,J.P. (1989). The relation between problem categorization and problem solving among experts and novices. Memory & Cognition, 17 (5), Lesgold, A., Rubinson, H., Feltovitch, P., Glaser, R., Klopfer, D., & Wang, Y. (1988). Expertise in a complex skill: Diagnosing x- ray pictures. Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ. Morita,J., Miwa,K., Kitasaka,T., Mori,K., Suenaga, Y., Iwano, S., Ikeda, M., & Ishigaki, T. (2008). Interactions of Perceptual and Conceptual Processing: Expertisein Medical Image Diagnosis. International Journal of Human Computer Studies, 66, (1997).. B Norman, D. A. (1988). THE PSYCHOLOGY OF EVERYDAY THINGS. NewYork:Basic Books Inc. ( (1994)...). Rasmussen, J. (1983). Skills, rules, and knowledge; signs and symbols, and other distinctions in human performance model. IEEE Trans., SMC-13 (3), Reason,J. (1990). Human Error. NewYork:Cambridge University Press. ( (1994)...). Rizzo, A. (1987). Human error detection processes. Man-Machine Studies, 27, Rizzo,A., Ferrante,D., &Bagnara,S. (1994). Handling Human Error. In P. C. Cacciabue, J.- M. Hoc, & E. Hollnagel (Eds.), Expertise and Technology: Issues in Cognition and Human- Computer Cooperation, chap. 14, Lawrence Erlbaum. Simon, H. A. & Lea, G. (1974). Problem solving and rule induction: A unified view. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Smith, M. U. (1992). Expertise and the organization of knowledge: unexpected differences among genetic counselors, faculty, and students on problem categorization task.journal of Research in Science Teaching, 29, van Gog, T., Paas, F., & van Merriënboer, G. J. J. (2005). Uncovering expertise-related differences in troubleshooting performance: combining eye movement and concurrent verbal protocol data. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19, Zajchowski, R. & Martin, J. (1993). Differences in the Problem Solving of Stronger and Weaker Novices in Physics: Knowledge, Strategies, or Knowledge Structure?Journal of Research in Science Teaching, 30 (5), (1999)... (Received 23 Feb. 2011) (Accepted 27 Oct. 2011)
16 Vol. 19 No () 2006 ( ) ( ) /JST CRST () () Carnegie Mellon University, Dept. of Psychology, visiting assistant professor ( ) ( ) A TR1, TR2, SH1, SH2, SH3 2 TR1 TR2 3 9 (2) (3) flip change 9 (2) (3) (2) 9 (3) (10) (12) frustration count flip change 9 (6) 3 9 (7) (9) flip change 9 (10) 9 (10) 9 (11) 9 (11)
17 162 Cognitive Studies June (12) 2 (, 1999). 3 9 SH (22) 1 3 SH1 3 TR1 TR2 SH SH1 SH1 10 SH1 10 (1) (2) 10 (3) (6) 10 (7) SH1 3 9
18 Vol. 19 No B. 1 1 TR1 3 3 TR2 3 SH1 SH2 SH3 2
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