2-1. (2-1 ) (2-2 ) (2-3 ) (Hayashi [1986]Dekle [1989]Barthold and Ito [1992] [1996]Campbell [1997] [1998]Shimono and Ishikawa [2002]Shimono and Otsuki [2006] [2008]Horioka [2009]) 1 2-1-1 2-1-1-1 8 (1. 2. 200 3. 200~500 4. 500~1,000 5. 1,000~2,000 6. 2,000~3,000 7. 3,000~5,000 8. 5,000 )9. 9 9. 8 1 () 26
2 () 8 y i y * i 1 if yi = M 8 if * κ 0 < yi κ1 * κ < y κ 7 i 8 (1) y = x β + u * i i i u i ~ N(0, σ ) κ 0 = κ 8 = x i u i i ( i = 1, L, n ) j ( j = 1, L, 8) π ij κ j xiβ κ j x β * 1 i = Pr( κ j 1 < yi < κ j ) = Φ Φ (2) σ σ Φ( ) κ β σ = 1 κ σ (2) N 8 κ j xiβ κ j 1 xiβ [ ] ln L( β, κ, σ ; y, x) = 1 y = i j ln Φ Φ (3) i= 1 j= 1 σ σ β κ σ 2-1-1-2 (3) x i ()() 2 (censored) 5,000 () 9. Heckman 27
3 4 x ( i )() ( ) 5 829 2-1-1 52.8 50.6 9% 8 3 () 4 5 (1989) (1993) 28
2-1-1 52.8 12.1 22 80 50.6 11.6 20 78 0.090-0 1 0.821-0 1 0.093-0 1 0.521-0 1 0.386-0 1 0.078-0 1 0.766-0 1 0.156-0 1 3.4 1.8 1 12 3.2 1.6 1 12 0.608-0 1 0.606-0 1 0.285-0 1 0.367-0 1 0.306-0 1 0.274-0 1 () 2 2114.6 2559.9-4923.3 18750 () 3 630.2 362.7 0 1875 () 3 145.6 224.5 0 1875 829 ( []) 10 1 0 () () () () ()1 0 () 10 ()1 0 () () 2: 578 3: 559 29
3 6 ( ) 2,115 630 146 2-1-2 (%) 502 60.55 200 78 9.41 200-500 72 8.69 500-1000 62 7.48 1000-2000 42 5.07 2000-3000 31 3.74 3000-5000 16 1.93 5000 26 3.14 829 100 () 1 1379.8 1 2-1-2 6 60% (1989) (1993) (1996) (2008) 60% 1,380 2,115 6 () 700 1. 2. 200 3. 200~500 4. 500~1,000 30
40% 7 2-1-1-3 2-1-1-1 (1) u i σ 1 ( β ) σ 2-1-3 2-1-4 89 ( 2-1-3 (C)) 10 () 7 () (2008)2. 200 200 0.8 (160 )8. 5,000 5,000 1.25 (6,250 )2-2-2 8 9 2-1- A 1. 8. 5,000 10 2-1-2 31
2-1-3 (A) (B) (C) 32 σ 1.5 65.4 5.6 56.0 0.129 0.069 * 136.1-0.043 0.608-0.069 0.521-0.001 0.001 * -1.2 61.8 66.9 52.2 57.2-0.008 0.070-8.6-0.467 0.647-0.395 0.553 1.6E-04 0.001 0.167 591.5 154.2 *** 500.7 132.8 *** 0.110 0.148 115.9-67.4 114.7-56.3 98.5 0.013 0.110 13.5-251.9 174.5-214.7 149.6-0.168 0.176-177.6 197.6 102.2 * 187.2 87.8 ** 0.357 0.097 *** 376.3-163.9 187.7-153.5 161.0-0.309 0.192-326.3 227.4 133.6 * 181.8 114.8 0.099 0.125 104.2-19.0 29.2-17.4 25.0-0.030 0.028-32.0 26.2 35.7 21.6 30.6 0.007 0.035 7.3 230.4 99.0 ** 201.1 84.9 ** 0.158 0.096 166.6 47.3 99.1 46.6 85.0 0.043 0.095 45.0 330.1 121.3 *** 296.4 104.1 *** 0.382 0.117 *** 403.1 431.2 157.6 *** 370.8 135.4 *** 0.340 0.148 ** 358.7-33.4 119.2-27.8 102.4 0.095 0.113 100.1-4.6 157.4-11.5 135.3 0.012 0.148 12.2-1776.1 853.7 ** -1618.7 730.6 ** - - (σ) 1235.6 1054.4 - F/LR - 4.49 *** -4958.12 80.89 *** -1101.60 103.18 *** / 0.0705-0.0447 829 1: ***** *1510
2-1-4 0.049 0.026 * -4.E-04 2.E-04 * -0.003 0.027 6.E-05 3.E-04 0.042 0.058 0.005 0.042-0.063 0.064 0.137 0.037 *** -0.112 0.065 * 0.038 0.049-0.012 0.011 0.003 0.013 0.060 0.036 * 0.016 0.036 0.148 0.046 *** 0.131 0.057 ** 0.036 0.044 0.004 0.057 829 1: ***** * 1510 500 2-1-3 (A)(C) 2-1-3 2-1-3 2-1-7 2-1-3 11 11 Greene (2008, p.38) 2-2 2-3 0.15 2-1-3 33
12 2-1-3 (1) ()(2) (3) 2-1-4 (1) (2) 2-1-2 2-1-2-1 2-1-4 (=1-)() 70 4 67 4 13 14 2-1-5 () 16.6% 27% 40% 52.9% 66.7% 2-1-2 2-1-4 0.0447 12 κ 13 70 67 70 4 70 67 4 14 2-1-4 34
2-1-5 1 16.6% 27.0% 26.0% 38.8% 31.1% 44.5% 22.9% 35.1% 34.0% 47.7% 39.5% 53.6% 34.4% 48.2% 47.0% 61.1% 52.9% 66.7% 1: 70467 4 10~14% 34% 47.7% 13.7% 15 2-1-2-2 8 2-1-6 () E() E( >0) 2-1-6 E() 4~5 142.1 343.6 732.3 15 829 388 (46.8%) 35
2-1-6 () 1 E() 142.1 281.2 177.9 343.6 260.1 481.0 318.7 575.4 311.8 564.4 379.4 670.5 198.5 378.7 245.7 457.4 351.8 627.5 426.1 742.2 417.4 728.9 502.1 856.4 380.8 672.6 459.8 793.2 630.6 1043.5 745.7 1205.5 732.3 1187.0 860.3 1362.5 E( >0) 790.0 981.3 844.6 1054.6 955.1 1202.5 1026.0 1296.7 1017.9 1285.9 1094.7 1387.7 873.9 1093.9 936.8 1178.0 1063.9 1347.0 1145.2 1454.1 1135.9 1441.9 1224.0 1557.2 1096.2 1389.6 1180.6 1500.5 1349.9 1720.7 1457.3 1858.4 1445.1 1842.8 1560.7 1989.5 1: 704674 1,362.5 2-1-5 351.8 742.2 (2008) Horioka (2009) 2006 () 343.4 16 2-1-6 (E( >0)) 2 800 ~2,000 1,000 1,500 1447 (2008) Horioka (2009) 16 (2008) Horioka (2009) 2-1-6 36
(2008) Horioka (2009) 70 67 2-1-3 ( ) 17 () 60 18 2-1-7 1,000 2.7% 79.5 ~115.6 100 1.3% 29.1 ~47.4 17 (1990) (2006) (2008) Horioka (2009) 18 60 59 37
2-1-7 σ 3 () 115.6 22.7 *** 101.6 19.7 *** 0.027 0.010 *** 0.071 0.020 *** 79.5 (σ) 1310.4 1124.6 - F/LR / 6.48 0.1459 112.13-126.10 0.0743 578 38 σ 3 () 47.4 12.6 *** 40.7 10.7 *** 0.013 0.006 ** 0.036 0.015 ** 29.1 3 () 10.9 19.1 9.6 16.2 0.004 0.008 0.011 0.022 9.2 (σ) 972.2 817.2 - F/LR / 5.03 0.1208 94.6-118.63 0.0813 559 1: ***** *1510 2: 3: 4: 59
2-1-8 2-1-9 19 2-1-8-2,500 7,500 6.9% 21.8% 24.9% 51.2% 35.7% 63.3% (E( )) 43.0 196.6 237.9 757.0 410.5 1,147.4 (E( >0)) 627.0 901.4 955.1 1,478.7 1,150.1 1,811.8 1 737 ( E()) 2-1-9 1,000 324 ( E()) 2-1-8 2-1-9 2-1-4 19 2-1-8 2-1-9 40 40 39
40 2-1-8 () 1 () 40() -2500 0 2500 5000 7500-1088.7 1411.3 3911.3 6411.3 8911.3 Pr() 6.9% 9.5% 12.9% 17.0% 21.8% E() 43.0 64.9 95.9 138.7 196.6 E( >0) 627.0 681.8 744.8 817.5 901.4 Pr() 24.9% 30.8% 37.3% 44.2% 51.2% E() 237.9 326.9 440.6 582.9 757.0 E( >0) 955.1 1060.1 1181.0 1319.9 1478.7 Pr() 35.7% 42.5% 49.5% 56.5% 63.3% E() 410.5 545.5 711.6 911.7 1147.4 E( >0) 1150.1 1284.4 1438.2 1613.4 1811.8 1: 704674 2: 704674 3: 40 40(1411.3)-25000250050007500
2-1-9 () 1 () 40() -250 0 250 500 750 306.9 556.9 806.9 1056.9 1306.9 Pr() 16.0% 18.3% 20.8% 23.5% 26.3% E() 90.8 108.9 129.9 154.3 182.4 E( >0) 571.5 600.0 630.9 664.4 700.6 E() 30.3% 33.5% 36.9% 40.3% 43.9% E( >0) 214.3 251.0 292.8 340.0 393.1 E(Y >0) 739.6 782.1 828.2 878.1 932.1 Pr() 48.0% 51.7% 55.2% 58.8% 62.3% E() 482.2 551.8 628.7 713.4 806.2 E( >0) 1019.1 1084.5 1155.2 1231.3 1313.3 41 1: 704674 2: 704674 3: 4040 (556.9)-2500250500750
() 2.5~3.2 4~5 1 1,000 (1998) Vol. 49No. 4pp. 289-296 (1993) Vol. 17No. 1pp. 46-54 (1996) ()pp. 134-173 (1990) ()pp. 207-230 -----------(1989) Vol. 102No. 6pp. 749-771 (2008)Vol. 44No. 3pp. 307-315 (2006) ()pp. 165-195 Barthold, Thomas A., and Takatoshi Ito, (1992) Bequest Taxes and Accumulation of Household Wealth: U.S. -Japan Comparison in T. Ito and A. O. Krueger, eds., Political Economy of Tax Reform, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 235-292. 42
Campbell, David W, (1997) Transfer and Life-cycle Wealth in Japan, 1974-1984, Japanese Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 410-423. Dekle, Robert, (1989) The Unimportance of International Transfers in Japan, Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 403-413. Hayashi, Fumio, (1986) Why is Japan s Saving Rate So Apparently High? in S. Fischer, ed., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Vol. 1, Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 147-210. Horioka, Charles Yuji, (2009) Do Bequests Increase or Decrease Wealth Inequalities? Economics Letters, Vol. 103, No. 1, pp. 23-25. Shimono, Keiko., and Ishikawa Miho, (2002) Estimating the Size of Bequests in Japan: 1986-1994, International Economic Journal, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 1-21. Shimono, Keiko., and Hideaki Otsuki (2006) The Distribution of Bequests in Japan, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 77-86. 43
2-1-A 1: 2: 200 3: 200-500 4: 500-1000 44-0.049 0.026 * 0.006 0.003 * 0.009 0.005 * 0.010 0.005 * 4.E-04 2.E-04 * -5.E-05 3.E-05 * -7.E-05 4.E-05 * -9.E-05 5.E-05 * 0.003 0.027 0.000 0.003-0.001 0.005-0.001 0.005-6.E-05 3.E-04 7.E-06 3.E-05 1.E-05 4.E-05 1.E-05 5.E-05-0.042 0.058 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.011-0.005 0.042 0.001 0.005 0.001 0.007 0.001 0.008 0.063 0.064-0.008 0.009-0.012 0.012-0.013 0.013-0.137 0.037 *** 0.014 0.004 *** 0.023 0.007 *** 0.027 0.008 *** 0.112 0.065 * -0.016 0.012-0.022 0.014-0.023 0.014 * -0.038 0.049 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.011-0.001 0.001-0.002 0.002-0.002 0.002-0.003 0.013 3.E-04 0.002 5.E-04 0.002 0.001 0.003-0.060 0.036 * 0.007 0.005 0.011 0.007 0.012 0.007-0.016 0.036 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.006 0.003 0.007-0.148 0.046 *** 0.014 0.004 *** 0.023 0.007 *** 0.029 0.009 *** -0.131 0.057 ** 0.013 0.006 ** 0.022 0.009 ** 0.026 0.011 ** -0.036 0.044 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.009-0.004 0.057 0.001 0.006 0.001 0.010 0.001 0.011 LR 103.18 *** 0.0447 829 1: ***** *1510
2-1-A () 5: 1000-2000 6: 2000-3000 7: 3000-5000 8: 5000 45 0.008 0.004 * 0.007 0.004 * 0.004 0.002 * 0.007 0.004 * -7.E-05 4.E-05 * -6.E-05 3.E-05 * -3.E-05 2.E-05-6.E-05 3.E-05 * -0.001 0.004-4.E-04 0.004-2.E-04 0.002-4.E-04 0.004 1.E-05 4.E-05 8.E-06 4.E-05 5.E-06 2.E-05 8.E-06 3.E-05 0.007 0.010 0.006 0.009 0.003 0.005 0.006 0.009 0.001 0.007 0.001 0.006 4.E-04 0.003 0.001 0.005-0.010 0.010-0.008 0.008-0.004 0.004-0.007 0.007 0.023 0.007 *** 0.020 0.006 *** 0.011 0.004 *** 0.020 0.007 *** -0.018 0.010 * -0.014 0.008 * -0.008 0.004 * -0.012 0.006 ** 0.006 0.008 0.005 0.007 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.007-0.002 0.002-0.002 0.002-0.001 0.001-0.002 0.001 4.E-04 0.002 4.E-04 0.002 2.E-04 0.001 4.E-04 0.002 0.010 0.006 0.008 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.006 0.002 0.005 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.025 0.009 *** 0.022 0.008 *** 0.013 0.005 ** 0.023 0.009 ** 0.022 0.010 ** 0.019 0.009 ** 0.011 0.006 * 0.019 0.010 ** 0.006 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.001 0.009 0.001 0.008 3.E-04 0.004 0.001 0.008 LR 103.18 *** 0.0447 829 1: ***** *1510
2-2. 2-1 1 20 5~8 21 2-2-1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-2,070-2,178-2,206-2,092-2,084 1,462 1,301 1,164 916 1,191 5,363 5,893 6,089 5,954 5,906-2,377-2,563-2,681-2,430-1,747 2,636 2,813 2,959 3,043 3,486 6,012 6,748 7,463 7,815 7,714 59 5 2-2-1. (2008) [1992][1993] 20 21 1,007 21 46
=9=12=14=16 22 23 (1) (2) (3) (4) 4 (3)(4) Ono[2004] 1 / 2-1 22 2-2-2 2-2- A 23 47
2 24 2-2-2 1 [1] (4) 4400 [2][3][1] 25 [4] [5] [4] 24 60 60 25 12 14 48
2-2-2 [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] 49 1 0.344 0.062 *** 0.272 0.105 ** 0.283 0.104 *** 0.336 0.135 ** 0.346 0.125 *** 0.033 0.005 *** 0.058 0.010 *** 0.032 0.010 *** 0.044 0.013 *** 0.082 0.012 *** -0.101 0.023 *** -0.108 0.056 * -0.188 0.059 *** -0.203 0.072 *** -0.207 0.066 *** -0.105 0.023 *** -0.084 0.051 * -0.227 0.055 *** -0.248 0.070 *** -0.237 0.065 *** 0.078 0.060 0.159 0.103 0.123 0.109 0.157 0.144 0.247 0.132 * 0.095 0.050 * 0.120 0.097 0.041 0.098 0.049 0.132 0.255 0.120 ** -0.011 0.006 ** -0.003 0.011-0.010 0.012 0.000 0.016 0.001 0.014-0.011 0.006 * -0.028 0.013 ** -0.011 0.013-0.024 0.019-0.059 0.016 *** 1-0.590 0.056 *** -0.311 0.290-0.385 0.194 ** -0.778 0.442 * 2-0.280 0.092 *** -0.270 0.274-0.422 0.237 * -0.987 0.382 ** 3-0.094 0.324 0.311 0.943 4 0.086 0.293 0.045 0.498-0.234 0.435-0.966 0.138 *** 5-0.373 0.080 *** -0.024 0.152-0.417 0.144 *** -0.047 0.224 6 0.233 0.110 ** 0.614 0.165 *** 0.282 0.167 * 0.656 0.217 *** 7 0.701 0.071 *** 0.720 0.128 *** 0.631 0.126 *** 0.652 0.176 *** 8-0.028 0.172 0.506 0.377 0.122 0.309 0.345 0.368 9 0.339 0.078 *** 0.333 0.105 *** 0.520 0.119 *** 0.412 0.146 *** 10 0.780 0.124 *** 0.778 0.185 *** 0.865 0.237 *** 0.770 0.258 *** 11 0.958 0.069 *** 0.804 0.102 *** 0.978 0.103 *** 0.932 0.129 *** 12-0.006 0.365 4.790 0.210 *** 4.952 0.212 *** 5.142 0.240 *** 13 0.792 0.267 *** 1.168 0.405 *** 1.543 0.490 *** 1.510 0.509 *** 14 1.492 0.481 *** 4.804 0.121 *** 4.922 0.142 *** 5.078 0.166 *** 15 1.297 0.085 *** 1.123 0.120 *** 1.481 0.133 *** 1.374 0.161 *** ( 0.064 0.011 *** 0.064 0.016 *** 0.107 0.016 *** 0.034 0.019 * 0.008 0.025 0.034 0.021 0.007 0.001 *** 0.005 0.002 ** 0.007 0.002 *** -4230-1268 0.161 0.150 4417 1595-1221 0.162 1461 ***** *1510 9121416 2100 [2][4][5]60-700 0.200 950-820 0.128 1038
2-2-2. 2-2-2 2-2-3 4 2-2-2 2-2-2 [1] 3-1 0.133 13%-0.039 4% 21% 47% 2-2-3 3-2)3-1) 2-2-2 100 2 2,200 2-2-3. 2 1950 50
2-2-3 Prediction 3-1) 51 1 0.339 0.034 *** -0.014 0.002 *** -0.107 0.010 *** -0.012 0.002 *** 0.133 0.013 *** 0.013 0.001 *** -0.001 0.000 *** -0.004 0.000 *** 0.000 0.000 *** 0.005 0.000 *** -0.100 0.015 *** 0.004 0.001 *** 0.032 0.005 *** 0.004 0.001 *** -0.039 0.006 *** 1-0.573 0.050 *** 0.035 0.005 *** 0.182 0.016 *** -0.004 0.004-0.212 0.017 *** 2-0.257 0.086 *** 0.014 0.006 ** 0.083 0.028 *** 0.002 0.002-0.098 0.031 *** 3-0.015 0.287 0.001 0.012 0.005 0.091 0.000 0.009-0.006 0.112 4 0.263 0.261-0.008 0.006-0.079 0.074-0.017 0.024 0.104 0.104 5-0.294 0.075 *** 0.016 0.005 *** 0.094 0.024 *** 0.001 0.002-0.111 0.027 *** 6 0.308 0.105 *** -0.009 0.002 *** -0.092 0.029 *** -0.021 0.010 ** 0.122 0.041 *** 7 0.773 0.068 *** -0.017 0.002 *** -0.207 0.014 *** -0.074 0.010 *** 0.298 0.024 *** 8 0.043 0.153-0.002 0.006-0.014 0.048-0.002 0.007 0.017 0.060 9 0.383 0.076 *** -0.011 0.002 *** -0.113 0.021 *** -0.028 0.008 *** 0.152 0.030 *** 10 0.721 0.109 *** -0.015 0.002 *** -0.191 0.022 *** -0.072 0.016 *** 0.278 0.038 *** 11 1.020 0.067 *** -0.020 0.002 *** -0.255 0.012 *** -0.105 0.010 *** 0.380 0.021 *** 12 0.107 0.348-0.004 0.011-0.033 0.107-0.005 0.021 0.042 0.139 13 0.888 0.267 *** -0.015 0.002 *** -0.218 0.042 *** -0.098 0.040 ** 0.332 0.083 *** 14 1.104 0.308 *** -0.016 0.002 *** -0.247 0.036 *** -0.130 0.044 *** 0.393 0.080 *** 15 1.340 0.082 *** -0.021 0.002 *** -0.296 0.010 *** -0.150 0.012 *** 0.467 0.020 *** -4936 0.173 5025 3-2) ((100) 0.059 0.010 *** -0.001 0.000 *** -0.011 0.002 *** -0.009 0.002 *** 0.021 0.004 *** -1345 0.1486 1664 *** ** *1510 9121416 3-23-160
2-2-4 =9=12=14=16 3 [1] [2][1] [3] 26 [4] [5] 26 g P(g)ΣP(g)=1 (b)(t) T ΣP(g)t(Tg ; ) ΣP(g)t(Tg ; ) 52
2-2-4 4-1) [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] 11-1.596 0.056 *** -1.349 0.059 *** -1.356 0.059 *** -1.349 0.059 *** -0.851 0.233 *** 0.722 0.086 *** 0.629 0.088 *** 0.620 0.088 *** 0.623 0.088 *** 0.494 0.141 *** 1.321 0.053 *** 1.299 0.055 *** 1.289 0.055 *** 1.294 0.055 *** 1.167 0.100 *** 0.023 0.001 *** 0.012 0.006 ** 0.338 0.020 *** 0.170 0.085 ** 0.561 0.122 *** 0.0003 0.0001 ** -3006 0.270 3365-2803 0.304 3283-2803 0.303 3283-2801 0.304 3283-727 0.142 748 53 4-2) [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] 1-1.743 0.057 *** -1.628 0.059 *** -1.636 0.059 *** -1.628 0.060 *** -1.232 0.219 *** 0.938 0.056 *** 0.872 0.058 *** 0.868 0.058 *** 0.871 0.058 *** 0.868 0.090 *** 1.925 0.096 *** 1.857 0.098 *** 1.850 0.098 *** 1.855 0.098 *** 1.946 0.140 *** 0.008 0.001 *** 0.007 0.006 0.125 0.022 *** 0.025 0.086 0.088 0.077-0.0002 0.0002-3032 0.270 3354-2980 0.273 3309-2980 0.273 3309 ***** *1510 9121416 100 [5]60-2980 -871 0.273 0.163 3309 935
2-2-5 2-2-6 27 2-2-4. 2-2-6 2-2-3 b f e f 2-2-6 p(e m ; b f, e f ) 2-2-3 3-1) s c (b c )(n c )(e f, e m ) 4 q(e c ; s c, b c, n c, e f, e m ) 30 b c =b f +30b f (e f )b c Pr( e ; b c f, e f, s, n ) = c c em p( e m ; b f, e f ) q( e ; s, b, n, e 2-2-7 2 n c 210 Pr( e ; b, e,2) = (Pr( e ; b, e,,2) + Pr( e ; b, e,,2))/ 2 c f f c f f c f f c c c c f, e m ) 27 54
2-2-5 Prediction 5-1) 11-1.356 0.059 *** 0.410 0.020 *** -0.184 0.017 *** -0.187 0.008 *** -0.039 0.004 *** 21 0.620 0.088 *** -0.113 0.011 *** -0.067 0.021 *** 0.134 0.021 *** 0.045 0.010 *** 31 1.289 0.055 *** -0.232 0.010 *** -0.142 0.016 *** 0.263 0.014 *** 0.111 0.009 *** 0.338 0.020 *** -0.083 0.005 *** 0.006 0.004 * 0.063 0.004 *** 0.014 0.001 *** -2803 0.303 3283 55 5-2) 11-1.636 0.059 *** 0.524 0.020 *** -0.166 0.017 *** -0.077 0.006 *** -0.281 0.010 *** 21 0.868 0.058 *** -0.173 0.009 *** -0.132 0.016 *** 0.038 0.003 *** 0.267 0.021 *** 31 1.850 0.098 *** -0.222 0.009 *** -0.423 0.024 *** 0.010 0.006 *** 0.635 0.030 *** 0.125 0.022 *** -0.033 0.006 *** -0.005 0.002 *** 0.007 0.001 *** 0.031 0.005 *** -2980 0.273 3309 ***** *1510 9121416
2-2-6 1910 0.829 0.170 0.001 0.000 1910 0.794 0.199 0.004 0.003 1920 0.796 0.202 0.002 0.000 1920 0.782 0.210 0.004 0.004 1930 0.718 0.278 0.004 0.000 1930 0.757 0.233 0.005 0.005 1940 0.670 0.324 0.006 0.000 1940 0.743 0.246 0.005 0.006 1950 0.525 0.458 0.017 0.001 1950 0.714 0.272 0.007 0.007 1960 0.411 0.555 0.032 0.002 1960 0.657 0.323 0.009 0.011 1970 0.376 0.582 0.039 0.002 1970 0.650 0.328 0.010 0.012 1980 0.310 0.630 0.056 0.004 1980 0.639 0.338 0.010 0.013 1910 0.342 0.608 0.047 0.003 1910 0.208 0.587 0.062 0.143 1920 0.299 0.637 0.059 0.005 1920 0.196 0.587 0.065 0.152 1930 0.218 0.680 0.092 0.010 1930 0.174 0.584 0.069 0.172 1940 0.180 0.692 0.114 0.014 1940 0.163 0.581 0.072 0.184 1950 0.098 0.678 0.190 0.034 1950 0.142 0.573 0.077 0.208 1960 0.057 0.624 0.257 0.061 1960 0.109 0.549 0.085 0.258 1970 0.047 0.601 0.278 0.073 1970 0.106 0.545 0.085 0.264 1980 0.032 0.547 0.319 0.102 1980 0.100 0.540 0.087 0.273 1910 0.152 0.695 0.135 0.018 1910 0.046 0.436 0.097 0.421 1920 0.126 0.692 0.159 0.024 1920 0.042 0.423 0.097 0.437 1930 0.081 0.662 0.214 0.042 1930 0.036 0.398 0.097 0.469 / / 1940 0.062 0.635 0.247 0.056 1940 0.032 0.384 0.097 0.487 1950 0.028 0.527 0.332 0.113 1950 0.026 0.356 0.096 0.522 1960 0.014 0.427 0.381 0.178 1960 0.018 0.304 0.092 0.586 1970 0.011 0.394 0.392 0.203 1970 0.017 0.299 0.091 0.593 1980 0.007 0.330 0.405 0.258 1980 0.016 0.290 0.090 0.604 1910 0.045 0.594 0.284 0.077 1910 0.004 0.148 0.065 0.783 1920 0.035 0.559 0.311 0.096 1920 0.003 0.139 0.062 0.795 1930 0.019 0.474 0.360 0.146 1930 0.003 0.122 0.058 0.817 / / 1940 0.014 0.425 0.382 0.180 1940 0.002 0.114 0.055 0.829 1950 0.005 0.293 0.408 0.294 1950 0.002 0.098 0.050 0.850 1960 0.002 0.205 0.393 0.400 1960 0.001 0.073 0.041 0.885 1970 0.002 0.180 0.383 0.435 1970 0.001 0.071 0.040 0.888 1980 0.001 0.137 0.355 0.507 1980 0.001 0.067 0.038 0.894 2-2-5 1910 15.6%10.6% 1910 15.2% 11% 1970 3% 37% 1960 1970 1930 1940 1920 56
2-2-7 ( ) 1910 1940 0.156 0.577 0.161 0.106 0.152 0.574 0.163 0.110 1920 1950 0.125 0.560 0.181 0.134 0.123 0.557 0.182 0.138 1930 1960 0.097 0.533 0.201 0.170 0.098 0.532 0.200 0.170 1940 1970 0.075 0.500 0.217 0.208 0.077 0.502 0.216 0.206 1950 1980 0.054 0.453 0.232 0.261 0.059 0.465 0.229 0.248 1960 1990 0.038 0.403 0.241 0.318 0.043 0.421 0.238 0.298 1970 2000 0.028 0.358 0.244 0.370 0.033 0.380 0.243 0.344 1910 1940 0.073 0.495 0.218 0.214 0.062 0.455 0.222 0.260 1920 1950 0.055 0.456 0.231 0.258 0.047 0.417 0.230 0.306 1930 1960 0.040 0.406 0.240 0.315 0.035 0.372 0.234 0.359 1940 1970 0.029 0.359 0.243 0.369 0.026 0.330 0.234 0.411 1950 1980 0.019 0.299 0.238 0.444 0.018 0.284 0.229 0.469 1960 1990 0.012 0.244 0.226 0.517 0.012 0.234 0.217 0.536 1970 2000 0.008 0.204 0.213 0.575 0.009 0.199 0.205 0.587 / / 1910 1940 0.034 0.383 0.240 0.343 0.018 0.282 0.230 0.470 1920 1950 0.025 0.335 0.241 0.399 0.013 0.242 0.221 0.524 1930 1960 0.016 0.281 0.235 0.468 0.009 0.202 0.208 0.581 1940 1970 0.011 0.235 0.224 0.530 0.006 0.167 0.193 0.634 1950 1980 0.006 0.179 0.201 0.613 0.004 0.134 0.174 0.687 1960 1990 0.004 0.135 0.176 0.686 0.002 0.102 0.152 0.744 1970 2000 0.002 0.106 0.156 0.736 0.002 0.082 0.133 0.783 1910 1940 0.010 0.224 0.222 0.544 0.005 0.161 0.198 0.636 1920 1950 0.007 0.184 0.207 0.603 0.003 0.129 0.179 0.688 1930 1960 0.004 0.143 0.185 0.668 0.002 0.100 0.157 0.741 1940 1970 0.002 0.112 0.164 0.721 0.001 0.077 0.136 0.786 1950 1980 0.001 0.079 0.135 0.784 0.001 0.056 0.113 0.831 1960 1990 0.001 0.056 0.110 0.834 0.000 0.040 0.091 0.868 1970 2000 0.000 0.041 0.091 0.867 0.000 0.030 0.075 0.895 2-2-32-2-5230 9 2-2-5. 2-2 (1) (2) 57
(1) 2009 1992No. 22pp. 137-165 2008 4 pp. 93-117 2009 Ono, Hisashi (2004) Are sons and daughters substitutable? Allocation of family resources in contemporary Japan, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 143-160. 58
59 2-2-A [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] 1 0.329 0.072 *** 0.127 0.187 0.190 0.142 0.153 0.263 0.167 0.245 0.017 0.006 *** -0.030 0.022 0.006 0.016-0.050 0.033-0.014 0.032-0.155 0.026 *** -0.271 0.092 *** -0.278 0.080 *** -0.450 0.125 *** -0.345 0.116 *** -0.149 0.026 *** -0.114 0.089-0.191 0.078 ** -0.225 0.130 * -0.223 0.123 * 0.056 0.069 0.253 0.165 0.180 0.137 0.295 0.237 0.386 0.227 * 0.055 0.056 0.112 0.168-0.035 0.135-0.092 0.247 0.069 0.237-0.014 0.007 ** -0.032 0.023-0.044 0.019 ** -0.024 0.039-0.007 0.034-0.005 0.007-0.009 0.024 0.006 0.019-0.013 0.037-0.068 0.031 ** 1-0.723 0.060 *** -0.478 0.307-0.485 0.196 ** -0.221 0.464 2-0.371 0.097 *** -0.418 0.406-0.272 0.258-0.610 0.612 3-0.295 0.335-0.713 0.227 *** 4-0.157 0.312-1.208 0.178 *** -0.204 0.402-1.165 0.239 *** 5-0.551 0.084 *** -0.416 0.190 ** -0.701 0.158 *** -0.621 0.287 ** 6 0.233 0.138 * 1.051 0.275 *** 0.060 0.261 1.096 0.513 ** 7 0.602 0.080 *** 0.320 0.230 0.506 0.165 *** 0.330 0.370 8-0.243 0.172 0.438 0.200 ** 0.092 0.360 0.757 0.269 *** 9 0.120 0.105 0.154 0.184 0.649 0.193 *** 0.539 0.299 * 10 0.569 0.172 *** 1.032 0.523 ** 1.593 0.510 *** 1.896 0.502 *** 11 0.915 0.086 *** 0.773 0.188 *** 0.930 0.148 *** 1.003 0.240 *** 12-0.831 0.114 *** 13 0.647 0.368 * 5.051 0.209 *** 5.232 0.231 *** 5.370 0.251 *** 14-0.918 0.061 *** 15 1.093 0.115 *** 0.749 0.211 *** 1.389 0.200 *** 1.203 0.331 *** ( 0.056 0.017 *** 0.073 0.027 *** 0.106 0.024 *** 0.023 0.029 0.000 0.043 0.027 0.040 0.006 0.001 *** 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.004-3302 0.115 3084-464 0.125 439-697 0.130 688 ***** *1510 9121416 2100 [2][4][5]60-217 0.219 229-242 0.137 231
2-3. 2008 83.9% 35 2,020 39.8 1,606 38.3 1,052 34.7 3 2-3-1 28 29 2-3-1 30 100 50 5 1000 300 ( 6000 40472008 62323556 2006 380236 2009 35001184 2008 2045 1966 20 28 29 55.3% 12.8 31.9 1980 1997 19 2003 2008 1998 6 (2006)(2008 ) 9 60
2-3-1 (1) 3 (2) 3-6 (3) 612 (4) 1224 (5) 2436 (6) 37-48 (7) 48 45%3 20% 1 (12 ) 16% 2-3-2 2-3-2 48 3 3-6 6-12 12-24 24-36 36-48 561 249 153 92 75 37 32 61 1260 (44.5) (19.8) (12.1) (7.3) (6.0) (2.9) (2.5) (4.8) (100.0) 3 242 (75.4) 59 (18.4) 4 (1.2) 10 (3.1) 5 (1.6) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 1 321 (0.3) (100.0) 4-9 213 140 87 27 7 2 1 1 478 (44.6) (29.3) (18.2) (5.6) (1.5) (0.4) (0.2) (0.2) (100.0) 10-19 68 35 47 36 21 3 1 1 212 (32.1) (16.5) (22.2) (17.0) (9.9) (1.4) (0.5) (0.5) (100.0) 20-29 21 9 11 10 24 10 2 7 94 (22.3) (9.6) (11.7) (10.6) (25.5) (10.6) (2.1) (7.4) (100.0) 30 17 6 4 9 18 22 28 51 155 (11.0) (3.9) (2.6) (5.8) (11.6) (14.2) (18.1) (32.9) (100.0) 185 23 7 5 6 2 0 2 230 (80.4) (10.0) (3.0) (2.2) (2.6) (0.9) (0.0) (0.9) (100.0) 3 64 (94.1) 3 (4.4) 0 (0.0) 1 (1.5) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 68 (0.0) (100.0) 4-9 67 12 1 1 0 0 0 0 81 (82.7) (14.8) (1.2) (1.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 10-19 34 5 6 2 3 0 0 0 50 (68.0) (10.0) (12.0) (4.0) (6.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 20-29 15 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 20 (75.0) (10.0) (0.0) (5.0) (5.0) (0.0) (0.0) (5.0) (100.0) 30 5 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 11 (45.5) (9.1) (0.0) (0.0) (18.2) (18.2) (0.0) (9.1) (100.0) 746 272 160 97 81 39 32 63 1,490 (50.1) (18.3) (10.7) (6.5) (5.4) (2.6) (2.1) (4.2) (100.0) 1 2-3-2 2 30 3 75.4%30 30 61
11.0% 31 30 48 3 2 3 32 10-14 2-3-1 2-3-1 33 (1995) 31 1975 9 32 1987 4.5 33 Lazear (1979) [2009] [1996] Lazear (1979) 62
(1995) 34 (1995) 35 2-3-3 1 2 34 35 (1995 1993) Kotlikoff and Wise (1985)Lazear (1982) (19951993) 63
2-3-3 () <3> 4-6 0.56 0.09 *** 0.54 0.10 *** 0.73 0.31 ** 7-9 0.91 0.11 *** 0.96 0.11 *** 0.46 0.37 10-14 1.04 0.13 *** 1.05 0.14 *** 0.93 0.42 ** 15-19 1.43 0.18 *** 1.34 0.20 *** 2.16 0.49 *** 20-24 1.35 0.20 *** 1.49 0.22 *** 1.47 0.47 *** 25-29 2.01 0.23 *** 1.95 0.26 *** 30-34 1.93 0.26 *** 1.92 0.27 *** 2.12 0.61 *** 35 2.30 0.28 *** 2.25 0.30 *** 0.02 0.01 *** 0.02 0.01 *** -0.01 0.01 1.11 0.13 *** 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.57 0.32 * <> -0.51 0.15 *** -0.64 0.17 *** 0.44 0.35-0.02 0.08-0.06 0.09 0.60 0.29 ** 0.01 0.09-0.02 0.10 0.49 0.33 <4> 5-29 0.03 0.17-0.03 0.19 0.07 0.47 30-499 0.42 0.16 *** 0.38 0.18 ** 0.74 0.39 * 500-999 0.70 0.18 *** 0.65 0.19 *** 0.98 0.53 * 1000 0.76 0.17 *** 0.73 0.19 *** 0.89 0.47 * 0.94 0.20 *** 1.01 0.23 *** 0.54 0.51-0.45 0.13 *** -0.42 0.14 *** -0.50 0.36-0.48 0.31-0.58 0.33 * -0.15 0.78 0.29 0.19 0.31 0.21 0.10 0.49 1.27 0.14 *** 1.26 0.14 *** 7.58 0.92 *** <1960> 1970 0.27 0.11 ** 0.23 0.12 ** 0.80 0.49 80 0.18 0.09 ** 0.21 0.09 ** -0.73 0.48 90 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.09 0.35 0.25 2000 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.17-0.15 0.54 1490 1260 230-1761.3-1260.2-129.1 0.235 0.224 0.273 robust standard error****** 1510<> 20 20-2920-243030-34 70 2-3-3 5% 3 20 20-29 30 2 64
2-3-4) 3 3-6 6-12 12-24 24-36 36-48 48 65 <3> 4-6 0.54 0.10 *** -0.193 0.032 *** -0.013 0.008 * 0.054 0.010 *** 0.061 0.012 *** 0.056 0.012 *** 0.021 0.005 *** 0.010 0.003 *** 0.005 0.002 ** 7-9 0.91 0.11 *** -0.286 0.028 *** -0.065 0.017 *** 0.057 0.008 *** 0.095 0.013 *** 0.109 0.017 *** 0.048 0.011 *** 0.027 0.007 *** 0.016 0.006 *** 10-14 1.02 0.14 *** -0.308 0.031 *** -0.080 0.022 *** 0.055 0.009 *** 0.102 0.014 *** 0.123 0.021 *** 0.057 0.014 *** 0.032 0.009 *** 0.020 0.008 ** 15-19 1.29 0.20 *** -0.337 0.028 *** -0.136 0.033 *** 0.023 0.019 0.105 0.012 *** 0.159 0.026 *** 0.088 0.023 *** 0.057 0.018 *** 0.043 0.020 ** 20-24 1.44 0.22 *** -0.354 0.026 *** -0.161 0.034 *** 0.005 0.025 0.102 0.013 *** 0.173 0.026 *** 0.103 0.026 *** 0.071 0.022 *** 0.060 0.027 ** 25-29 1.86 0.26 *** -0.378 0.020 *** -0.216 0.031 *** -0.052 0.034 0.073 0.024 *** 0.187 0.022 *** 0.140 0.027 *** 0.116 0.032 *** 0.129 0.055 ** 30-34 1.85 0.27 *** -0.386 0.021 *** -0.212 0.033 *** -0.044 0.035 0.078 0.024 *** 0.189 0.021 *** 0.139 0.029 *** 0.113 0.032 *** 0.123 0.051 ** 35 2.16 0.30 *** -0.430 0.022 *** -0.229 0.028 *** -0.060 0.034 * 0.066 0.029 ** 0.190 0.024 *** 0.154 0.028 *** 0.136 0.035 *** 0.174 0.068 ** 0.02 0.01 *** -0.008 0.002 *** 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.001 *** 0.002 0.001 *** 0.002 0.001 *** 0.001 0.000 *** 0.000 0.000 *** 0.000 0.000 ** <> -0.68 0.16 *** 0.265 0.061 *** -0.052 0.022 ** -0.087 0.021 *** -0.063 0.013 *** -0.043 0.008 *** -0.013 0.003 *** -0.005 0.001 *** -0.002 0.001 ** -0.01 0.08 0.003 0.031 0.000 0.001-0.001 0.010-0.001 0.009-0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 <30> 30-499 0.43 0.09 *** -0.159 0.034 *** -0.001 0.005 0.048 0.011 *** 0.048 0.011 *** 0.041 0.010 *** 0.014 0.004 *** 0.006 0.002 *** 0.003 0.001 ** 500-999 0.70 0.12 *** -0.230 0.033 *** -0.043 0.016 *** 0.053 0.007 *** 0.077 0.013 *** 0.082 0.018 *** 0.034 0.010 *** 0.018 0.006 *** 0.010 0.004 ** 1000 0.84 0.11 *** -0.280 0.030 *** -0.043 0.013 *** 0.067 0.009 *** 0.091 0.013 *** 0.095 0.016 *** 0.039 0.009 *** 0.020 0.006 *** 0.011 0.004 *** 1.09 0.18 *** -0.311 0.031 *** -0.104 0.031 *** 0.040 0.014 *** 0.102 0.013 *** 0.136 0.028 *** 0.068 0.019 *** 0.041 0.014 *** 0.027 0.012 ** 0.46 0.11 *** -0.161 0.035 *** -0.018 0.011 * 0.043 0.009 *** 0.052 0.014 *** 0.051 0.015 *** 0.019 0.007 *** 0.009 0.004 ** 0.005 0.002 ** 0.52 0.18 *** -0.177 0.052 *** -0.027 0.020 0.044 0.009 *** 0.059 0.020 *** 0.059 0.024 ** 0.024 0.012 ** 0.012 0.007 * 0.006 0.004-0.43 0.14 *** 0.169 0.055 *** -0.024 0.014 * -0.056 0.019 *** -0.043 0.013 *** -0.031 0.009 *** -0.009 0.003 *** -0.004 0.001 *** -0.001 0.001 ** -0.60 0.32 * 0.238 0.124 * -0.048 0.045-0.079 0.042 * -0.056 0.023 ** -0.038 0.013 *** -0.011 0.003 *** -0.004 0.001 *** -0.002 0.001 ** 0.34 0.21-0.122 0.069 * -0.010 0.015 0.034 0.017 ** 0.039 0.024 0.036 0.025 0.013 0.010 0.006 0.005 0.003 0.003 1.27 0.14 *** -0.335 0.023 *** -0.132 0.023 *** 0.025 0.015 0.105 0.012 *** 0.156 0.021 *** 0.085 0.018 *** 0.055 0.015 *** 0.041 0.016 *** <1960> 1970 0.28 0.12 ** -0.101 0.040 ** -0.005 0.006 0.030 0.011 *** 0.032 0.014 ** 0.028 0.013 ** 0.010 0.005 * 0.005 0.003 * 0.002 0.001 80 0.25 0.09 *** -0.091 0.033 *** -0.003 0.004 0.027 0.010 *** 0.028 0.011 *** 0.025 0.010 ** 0.009 0.004 ** 0.004 0.002 ** 0.002 0.001 * 90 0.06 0.08-0.024 0.032 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.010 0.007 0.009 0.006 0.008 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 2000 0.21 0.17-0.077 0.061-0.003 0.008 0.023 0.017 0.024 0.020 0.021 0.019 0.008 0.007 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 1260-1614.1 0.219 robust standard error****** 1510<>
2-3-3 2-3-3 2-3-4 2-3- A 3 35 43%48 17.4% 2-3-4 2-3-5 36 1980 1000 15-19 11 25-29 21 35 30 35 35 30 35 17 35 22 90 2000 80 2-3-5 (2003 ) 1000 86.7%30-99 84.7% 35 1000 39.7 2,435 30-99 23.9 1,224 42.5 1,672 31.5 1,342 43.9 1,230 26.0 811 37 38 36 2-3- y i *=b 0 + bx i + e i y i *) y i =0, y i =1,...y i =7 y i =0 if κ 0 < y i * <κ 1, y i =1 if κ 1 < y i * <κ 2,... y i =7 if κ 7 < y i * <κ 8 Pr(y i =0 x i )= Φ( κ -bx 0 i ), Pr(y i =1 x i )= Φ(κ 1 -bx i )-Φ(κ 0 -bx i ),..., Pr(y i =7 x i )= Φ(κ 8 -bx i )-Φ(κ 7 -bx i ) 8 0, 1.5, 4.5, 9, 18, 30, 42 54 37 2008 2003 38 2-3-3 66
2-3-5 [] 0-29 30-500- 1000 0-29 30-500- 1000 0-29 30-500- 499 999 499 999 499 999 1000 80 0-3 4-6 0.3 1.0 0.7 1.9 1.1 2.9 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.2 2.9 1.4 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.3 7-9 2.0 3.6 5.1 6.0 2.0 3.6 5.1 6.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.5 10-14 2.6 4.5 6.3 7.4 2.6 4.6 6.4 7.5 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.3 15-19 4.2 7.1 9.5 11.0 4.3 7.2 9.6 11.1 1.6 3.1 4.4 5.3 20-24 5.8 9.4 12.3 14.0 5.9 9.5 12.4 14.1 2.4 4.3 6.1 7.1 25-29 10.3 15.3 19.2 21.3 10.4 15.5 19.3 21.4 4.8 8.0 10.6 12.2 30-34 11.3 16.6 20.6 22.8 11.4 16.8 20.7 22.9 5.4 8.8 11.7 13.3 35-17.0 23.4 27.8 30.1 17.7 24.2 28.6 30.9 10.5 15.6 19.5 21.6 35-22.1 28.9 33.3 35.4 22.8 29.7 34.1 36.2 14.5 20.6 24.8 27.1 90 0-3 4-6 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.5 0.8 2.2 1.1 2.7 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.5 0.8 2.2 1.1 2.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.0 7-9 1.5 2.8 4.0 4.8 1.5 2.8 4.1 4.9 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.9 10-14 2.0 3.6 5.1 6.0 2.0 3.6 5.1 6.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.5 15-19 3.3 5.7 7.8 9.1 3.4 5.8 7.9 9.2 1.2 2.4 3.5 4.2 20-24 4.7 7.7 10.3 11.8 4.7 7.8 10.4 11.9 1.8 3.4 4.9 5.8 25-29 8.5 13.0 16.5 18.5 8.6 13.1 16.7 18.6 3.8 6.5 8.8 10.2 30-34 9.4 14.2 17.9 19.9 9.5 14.3 18.0 20.1 4.3 7.2 9.7 11.2 35-14.5 20.5 24.8 27.1 15.1 21.3 25.6 27.9 8.7 13.3 16.9 18.9 35-19.3 25.9 30.4 32.6 20.0 26.7 31.2 33.4 12.3 17.8 21.9 24.1 2000 0-3 4-6 0.3 0.9 0.7 1.8 1.1 2.7 1.3 3.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 1.9 1.1 2.8 1.4 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.2 7-9 1.8 3.4 4.9 5.7 1.9 3.4 4.9 5.8 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.4 10-14 2.4 4.3 6.1 7.1 2.5 4.4 6.1 7.2 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.1 15-19 4.0 6.8 9.2 10.6 4.1 6.9 9.3 10.7 1.6 2.9 4.2 5.0 20-24 5.6 9.0 11.9 13.6 5.6 9.1 12.0 13.7 2.3 4.1 5.8 6.8 25-29 9.9 14.8 18.6 20.7 10.0 15.0 18.8 20.8 4.6 7.7 10.2 11.7 30-34 10.9 16.1 20.1 22.2 11.0 16.2 20.2 22.3 5.2 8.5 11.3 12.9 35-16.5 22.8 27.2 29.5 17.1 23.6 28.0 30.3 10.1 15.1 19.0 21.1 35-21.5 28.3 32.7 34.9 22.2 29.1 33.5 35.6 14.0 20.0 24.3 26.5 2-3-2 (1) 3 (2) 3-6 (3) 6-12 (4) 12-24 (5) 24-36 (6) 37-48 (7) 48 2-3-4 2003 1000 45.8 49.0 50.6 30-99 28.2 37.2 30.7 1000 35.7 35.7 26.7 30-499 28.5 29.3 20.5 67
2-3-6 3 3-6 6-12 12-24 24-36 36-48 48 122 7 13 19 34 41 27 67 330 20.7 (37.0) (2.1) (3.9) (5.8) (10.3) (12.4) (8.2) (20.3) (100.0) 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0.3 (80.0) (20.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 4-9 14 1 3 1 1 1 0 2 23 7.8 (60.9) (4.3) (13.0) (4.3) (4.3) (4.3) (0.0) (8.7) (100.0) 10-19 43 2 3 5 4 1 0 1 59 3.7 (72.9) (3.4) (5.1) (8.5) (6.8) (1.7) (0.0) (1.7) (100.0) 20-29 23 1 2 5 6 8 3 7 55 16.5 (41.8) (1.8) (3.6) (9.1) (10.9) (14.5) (5.5) (12.7) (100.0) 30 35 4 3 7 21 27 19 45 161 27.9 (21.7) (2.5) (1.9) (4.3) (13.0) (16.8) (11.8) (28.0) (100.0) 242 3 2 0 3 2 0 1 253 0.7 (95.7) (1.2) (0.8) (0.0) (1.2) (0.8) (0.0) (0.4) (100.0) 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0.0 (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 4-9 63 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 67 1.0 (94.0) (1.5) (3.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (1.5) (100.0) 10-19 104 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 107 0.4 (97.2) (0.9) (0.0) (0.0) (1.9) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 20-29 44 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 46 0.4 (95.7) (2.2) (0.0) (0.0) (2.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 30 16 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 18 3.3 (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 37%48 20% 2-3-6 3 80% 5% 39 39 x y age x age±2 1 68
2-3-7) <3> 4-6 1.28 0.53 ** 1.69 0.73 ** 7-9 1.32 0.56 ** 0.02 0.73 10-14 0.82 0.51 0.56 0.59-0.36 0.41 15-19 0.96 0.55 * 0.50 0.63 20-24 1.80 0.51 *** 1.56 0.60 *** 0.04 0.42 25-29 1.67 0.51 *** 1.49 0.59 ** 30-34 1.85 0.50 *** 1.76 0.58 *** 0.51 0.48 35 2.49 0.50 *** 2.35 0.58 *** -0.02 0.01 * -0.03 0.01 ** 0.02 0.02 1.33 0.22 *** -0.20 0.18-0.14 0.19-0.31 0.36 <> -0.64 0.31 ** -0.91 0.29 *** -0.17 0.56 0.03 0.19 0.17 0.23 0.09 0.17 0.03 0.19 0.25 0.34 <4> 5-29 -0.23 0.30-0.22 0.37 30-499 -0.18 0.27 0.12 0.32 500-999 -0.06 0.38 0.07 0.42 1000 0.22 0.29 0.48 0.34 0.37 0.29 0.45 0.31 0.82 0.38 ** 0.19 0.52 0.02 0.14 0.00 0.15-0.05 0.50 <2011-19> 2020-29 1.88 0.64 0.01 0.16 2030 2.03 0.64-0.08 0.22 579 330 249-552.2-477.5-56.5 0.286 0.179 0.089 robust standard error****** 1510 <> 1010-1910-1420-2920-24 3030-34 2-3-7 2-3-3 1 2 40 40 4-6 6 4-7 48 69
2010 2030 2-3-7 5% 3 10 10-19 2-3- B 2-3- C 10 35 43%48 29% 2-3- B 1 2-3-5 2-3-8 10 35 30 22 23 15 1000 35 36.2 27 2-3-5 35 1 10 50 2-3 5-29 70
2-3-8 2-3-8 [] 0-29 30-499 500-1000 0-29 30-499 500-1000 0-29 30-499 500-1000 999 999 999 2010-19 0-9 5.3 8.1 9.0 12.9 3.7 5.8 6.6 9.8 0.5 0.9 1.1 2.0 10-14 3.7 5.8 6.6 9.8 2.4 4.1 4.6 7.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 15-19 3.4 5.5 6.2 9.4 2.3 3.8 4.4 6.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 20-24 13.5 18.1 19.4 24.7 10.3 14.4 15.6 20.6 2.1 3.6 4.1 6.5 25-29 11.5 15.8 17.1 22.2 8.6 12.3 13.5 18.2 1.6 2.8 3.2 5.3 30-34 16.7 21.6 23.0 28.4 13.1 17.7 19.0 24.2 3.1 5.0 5.7 8.7 35-23.6 28.8 30.2 35.3 19.5 24.6 26.1 31.4 6.0 8.9 9.9 14.0 35-24.7 29.9 31.3 36.3 20.6 25.8 27.2 32.5 6.5 9.7 10.7 14.9 2020-29 0-9 5.2 7.9 8.8 12.6 3.6 5.7 6.4 9.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.9 10-14 3.5 5.7 6.4 9.6 2.4 3.9 4.5 7.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 15-19 3.3 5.3 6.0 9.1 2.2 3.7 4.2 6.7 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 20-24 13.2 17.7 19.1 24.3 10.1 14.1 15.3 20.3 2.1 3.5 4.0 6.3 25-29 11.2 15.5 16.7 21.8 8.4 12.0 13.2 17.8 1.6 2.7 3.1 5.1 30-34 16.4 21.3 22.7 28.0 12.8 17.3 18.7 23.9 3.0 4.9 5.5 8.4 35-23.2 28.4 29.9 35.0 19.2 24.3 25.7 31.1 5.8 8.7 9.6 13.7 35-24.4 29.6 31.0 36.0 20.3 25.4 26.9 32.2 6.4 9.4 10.4 14.6 2030 0-9 4.7 7.3 8.1 11.8 3.2 5.2 5.9 8.9 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.7 10-14 3.2 5.2 5.8 8.9 2.1 3.6 4.1 6.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 15-19 3.0 4.9 5.5 8.5 2.0 3.3 3.8 6.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 20-24 12.4 16.8 18.1 23.3 9.4 13.2 14.4 19.3 1.8 3.1 3.6 5.8 25-29 10.5 14.6 15.8 20.8 7.8 11.3 12.3 16.9 1.4 2.4 2.8 4.7 30-34 15.4 20.2 21.6 27.0 12.0 16.4 17.7 22.8 2.7 4.4 5.0 7.8 35-22.2 27.4 28.8 34.0 18.2 23.2 24.7 30.0 5.3 8.0 8.9 12.8 35-23.3 28.5 30.0 35.1 19.3 24.4 25.8 31.2 5.8 8.8 9.7 13.7 2-3-3 71
2000 (2009) 2009 4 pp. 18-25 (2006) 18 11 16 (1995) 9 pp. 229-255 (1993) 9 pp. 143-162 (1996) Kotlikoff, Laurence J. and David A. Wise (1985) Labor compensation and the structure of private pension plans: evidence for contractual versus spot labor market, in D.A. Wise, ed., Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, University Chicago Press. Lazear, Edward P. (1979) Why is there mandatory retirement? Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 6, pp. 1261-1284. 72
2-3-A) 3 6-12 12-24 24-36 48 73 <3> 4-6 0.61 0.31 * -0.193 0.032 *** 0.089 0.051 * 0.029 0.021 0.020 0.014 0.017 0.014 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 7-9 0.47 0.31-0.286 0.028 *** 0.070 0.051 0.023 0.018 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 10-14 0.86 0.35 ** -0.308 0.031 *** 0.128 0.053 * 0.047 0.030 0.035 0.023 0.033 0.025 0.003 0.004 0.000 0.001 15-19 1.91 0.41 *** -0.337 0.028 *** 0.173 0.041 ** 0.114 0.045 * 0.117 0.054 * 0.188 0.087 * 0.042 0.035 0.007 0.011 20-29 1.12 0.42 *** -0.354 0.026 *** 0.160 0.050 ** 0.069 0.037 * 0.056 0.040 0.061 0.054 0.007 0.011 0.001 0.001 30 1.73 0.52 *** -0.378 0.020 *** 0.175 0.040 ** 0.108 0.044 * 0.107 0.054 * 0.160 0.104 0.032 0.043 0.005 0.009 <> 0.28 0.28 0.265 0.061 *** 0.040 0.042 0.012 0.015 0.008 0.010 0.006 0.008 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.29 0.003 0.031 *** 0.000 0.039 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 <30> 30-499 0.72 0.29 ** -0.159 0.034 *** 0.101 0.045 * 0.031 0.018 * 0.021 0.012 * 0.017 0.010 * 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 500-999 0.71 0.38 * -0.230 0.033 *** 0.107 0.062 * 0.039 0.029 0.028 0.022 0.026 0.023 0.002 0.004 0.000 0.000 1000 0.83 0.38 ** -0.280 0.030 *** 0.124 0.061 * 0.046 0.031 0.034 0.025 0.033 0.026 0.003 0.004 0.000 0.001 0.84 0.44 * -0.311 0.031 *** 0.126 0.065 * 0.048 0.035 0.036 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.003 0.005 0.000 0.001 2.18 0.77 *** -0.161 0.035 *** 0.123 0.108 0.111 0.046 * 0.131 0.065 * 0.261 0.163 0.079 0.092 0.018 0.036 0.53 0.38-0.177 0.052 *** 0.080 0.061 0.027 0.025 0.019 0.020 0.017 0.020 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.000-0.46 0.33 0.169 0.055 *** -0.054 0.032 * -0.014 0.009-0.008 0.006-0.005 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000-0.18 0.77 0.238 0.124 *** -0.022 0.090-0.006 0.023-0.004 0.013-0.003 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000-0.23 0.45-0.122 0.069 *** -0.029 0.052-0.008 0.013-0.005 0.008-0.003 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 7.82 0.84 *** -0.335 0.023 *** -0.093 0.020 ** -0.019 0.007 * -0.010. -0.006 0.004 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 *** <1960> 1970 0.76 0.40 * -0.101 0.040 *** 0.114 0.062 * 0.044 0.031 0.033 0.028 0.031 0.034 0.003 0.004 0.000 0.001 80-0.90 0.45 ** -0.091 0.033 *** -0.088 0.029 ** -0.021 0.009 * -0.012 0.007 * -0.008 0.005 * 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 90 0.27 0.22-0.024 0.032 *** 0.039 0.032 0.012 0.010 0.007 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 2000-0.29 0.59-0.077 0.061 *** -0.035 0.063-0.009 0.015-0.005 0.009-0.004 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 250-141 0.240 robust standard error****** 151036-48
2-3-B 3 6-12 12-24 24-36 36-48 48 74 <9> 10-14 -0.23 0.33 0.085 0.125 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.002-0.009 0.017-0.024 0.035-0.018 0.025-0.041 0.052 15-19 -0.27 0.37 0.100 0.144 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.004-0.012 0.021-0.028 0.041-0.020 0.028-0.046 0.056 20-24 0.71 0.35 ** -0.209 0.080 *** -0.012 0.008-0.019 0.013-0.025 0.019-0.010 0.019 0.039 0.010 *** 0.048 0.020 * 0.188 0.114 * 25-29 0.57 0.35-0.175 0.088 * -0.010 0.007-0.015 0.012-0.018 0.017-0.004 0.014 0.036 0.013 *** 0.041 0.023 * 0.144 0.105 30-34 0.91 0.34 *** -0.259 0.070 *** -0.016 0.008 * -0.025 0.013 * -0.033 0.020 * -0.018 0.021 0.042 0.013 *** 0.058 0.018 *** 0.252 0.114 * 35 1.31 0.31 *** -0.428 0.088 *** -0.016 0.007 * -0.022 0.009 * -0.020 0.010 * 0.018 0.011 0.094 0.023 *** 0.088 0.023 *** 0.287 0.073 *** <> -1.01 0.26 *** 0.386 0.092 *** -0.001 0.004-0.007 0.008-0.027 0.015 * -0.070 0.024 *** -0.106 0.028 *** -0.063 0.016 *** -0.113 0.021 *** 0.23 0.14 * -0.081 0.048 * -0.003 0.002-0.004 0.003-0.003 0.003 0.006 0.004 0.021 0.013 * 0.018 0.011 0.046 0.029 <30> 30-499 0.29 0.19-0.101 0.065-0.004 0.003-0.006 0.005-0.005 0.004 0.006 0.004 0.026 0.018 0.022 0.015 0.060 0.041 500-999 0.37 0.29-0.120 0.084-0.006 0.006-0.009 0.009-0.009 0.011 0.002 0.006 0.028 0.017 * 0.028 0.021 0.087 0.078 1000 0.67 0.20 *** -0.215 0.060 *** -0.010 0.005 * -0.015 0.007 * -0.017 0.009 * 0.003 0.007 0.049 0.015 *** 0.049 0.017 *** 0.157 0.054 *** 1.04 0.26 *** -0.285 0.050 *** -0.018 0.008 * -0.029 0.011 *** -0.040 0.017 * -0.025 0.019 0.039 0.014 *** 0.062 0.016 *** 0.296 0.088 *** -0.73 0.25 *** 0.281 0.098 *** 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.005-0.012 0.012-0.045 0.022 * -0.079 0.029 *** -0.050 0.017 *** -0.097 0.024 *** 0.77 0.31 ** -0.220 0.063 *** -0.014 0.007 * -0.022 0.012 * -0.029 0.019-0.015 0.021 0.036 0.011 *** 0.050 0.016 *** 0.212 0.108 * 0.06 0.14-0.023 0.048-0.001 0.002-0.001 0.003-0.001 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.013 0.005 0.011 0.013 0.028 <2011-19> 2020-2029 -0.02 0.14 0.007 0.051 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.002-0.001 0.004-0.002 0.014-0.002 0.011-0.004 0.028 2030-0.08 0.19 0.028 0.069 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.001-0.002 0.007-0.008 0.019-0.006 0.015-0.015 0.035 349-525.8 0.147 robust standard error****** 1510
2-3-C 3 12-24 24-36 48 75 <9> 10-19 -0.40 0.37 0.031 0.026-0.007 0.007-0.008 0.009-0.008 0.006-0.005 0.005-0.002 0.004 20-29 0.14 0.36-0.012 0.033 0.003 0.008 0.003 0.008 0.003 0.009 0.002 0.005 0.001 0.003 30 0.55 0.45-0.066 0.076 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.016 0.018 0.022 0.012 0.021 0.007 0.009 <> 0.15 0.53-0.013 0.052 0.003 0.013 0.003 0.013 0.003 0.014 0.002 0.009 0.001 0.005 0.29 0.30-0.027 0.032 0.006 0.009 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.011 0.005 0.006 0.002 0.002 <500> 500 0.30 0.28-0.028 0.030 0.006 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.005 0.006 0.002 0.004 0.19 0.54-0.017 0.056 0.004 0.012 0.004 0.013 0.005 0.015 0.003 0.010 0.001 0.006 1.59 0.64 ** -0.374 0.240 0.046 0.027 * 0.062 0.041 0.090 0.070 0.086 0.070 0.090 0.117 264-62.9 0.07 robust standard error****** 15106-1236-48