19 GDP 1814 1815 1849 1846 1 2 61 2002 1 1991167 2 334 1
3 4 5 19 13 1823-1851 1884-1896 1884-1896 2 1823-1851 1884-1896 2 1 11 19 12 34 3 4 5 2
1 1789-1814-1849 1849-1873-1896 1896-1920-1940 2 6 Mitchell1998 1 1 1792-1813-1851 2 1851-1873-1896 3 1896-1920-1933 7 6 GDP Garvy1942 1940 1997 4 138-50 3 1932 1933 3 36 7 1978120 148-9 1 3
7-11 10 Kondratieff(1928/1984 199763 Kondratieff, N. D. (1928) 1978263-4 8 8 19 1 1792 112.8 1951 91.0 0.36 1896 74.0 0.46 1792-1896 0.40 19 4
1.1 19 Hooker1911 19 1978239 1 1851 1914 0.34 1904-14 0.75 9 1850 9 1910 25 5 2.8 1978 240 Guberman 19 Garvy1942p212 9 Garvy1942p212 18501870 1897-1914 1963 172 1851-1914 1 5
2.8 1913 1936824 10 / 2.8 1936 926-30 1850 1934 1910 928 19019 0.2 16.1 0.2 10.4 1 0.9 1.6 1921 0.9 11 1936825 10 824-6 11 1984 1919 3 1925 1914 1915 362364 6
1871 1939 2 V 1/ G M 12 1 1914 1 1851-1914 1904-1914 GDP 19 20 364 12 2 658-9 7 668-10 10 674 M3 M3 G 5-7 V 7
0.27% 1.19 GDP 1.84 V G P GDP 13 GDP 1 (%) 1851-1914 P m V G Y mv/y 0.27 0.61 0.27 1.19 1.84 4.05 2.86 2.98 3.21 2.19 15 4.69 11.04 2.70 1.19 1904-1914 1.83 0.19 0.27 2.74 1.77 2.50 1.08 3.28 3.00 2.19 1.34 5.68 12.15 1.09 1.24 0.95 3.57 3.76 1.69 3.00 1.78 GDPY V P=mV/YG mv/y 1 GDP 19 11 675 M3 13 PY=VG 8
2 0.2 19 80 14 GDP 10% 15 16 1 2-3 16 17 14 2002 1 well-balanced 82-3 7 Schwartz(2000) 19 pp. 161-5 15 1 3 3 62 740473 76067 0.55 0.68 16 17 338-9 9
1978141-46 200391-4 5 1839 1849 1851 1850 1873 1880 1896 1885-90 the Rand 18 1910 1920 19 18 1881 84 87 90 94 96 80 1978144-5 1991 A. 20-3 19 1850 1895 1936926 Goldstein (1988 Ch.12)Berry (1991 Ch.6) 10
1.2 20 21 Goldstein (1988) cost of wars lateral pressure 2 20 Goldstein (1988) (severity) 1790 1-5 pp. 249-57 1715-1918 50 2 1495 1918 14951892 14951975 4 pp. 245-48 1 21 Oparin 5-7 Garvy(1943), p.145 11
Goldstein (1988) ( ) 2 1930 1939 Goldstein (1988) 1521-1945 10 22 2 1 1757-1796-1815 1814 3 (2001) 23 22 p. 242-3 1 1 20 1 23 12
2 1816-46-87 1853-56 1870-71 24 1873 2 Goldstein(1988, pp.236-7) intensity 21, 928 1 57,616 1,743 1,415 1 25 3 1888-1930-1945 26 1 1902 27 24 3 25 GDP 26 1 2 3.4 1 2001 27 200281 1 2003 Hot War Cold War 13
1.3 1 1 1792 1813 1822 1851 3 GDP GDP 9 175796 20011 1756 99.06 1792 112.79 281796 1815 Mild War 1991 28 1755-63 7 9,118 1778-84 304 1 14
1813 1792-1815 18161846 18141851 1 3 1814 1822 112.8 1792 112.8 1814-22 29 1823 125.61846 110.2 20 3 9 3.5% 1823-1951 3 18461887 18511873 1.09 1855 1853-56 1,743 1861-65 1870-71 1,415 3 1874 1887 1874 1896 GDP 1852 1873 1874 1887 GDP 30 29 van Duijn(1983) 1815 1920 148 30 1851-73-1887 1851-73-96 GNP 1870-71 15
18881930 1903 1917 1888-1903 1888-1896 31 GDP 1884 1896 2 1904 14 10 32 GDP 31 1878 110.1 1896 74.0 2.18 1874 96 1880 1913 1913 100 100 96 88 32 1915 1920 1 3 1930 1919 1930 1 19301945 1934 1941 2% 16
1904 1914 33 GDP 1897 1904 1 3 GDP 4 GDP 1895 1903 1903 2000 Hooker(1911) 1897-1904 1823-1951 1884-1896 1897-1904 2 21823-1851 1884-1896 Garvy(1943) Gerzstein 181549 1815-40 34 1939 2 1950 33 GDP 1903 3.2% 1913 1.2% 4.4% 84.3 81.8 8.1 7.9 34 1816-46 2 van Duijn(1983) 1 1815-49 1830 Clark1944 Kondratieff 1789-1814-1849 1 pp189-90 van Duijn(1983) GNP Juglar 5 12 5 1 17
1873-1896 35 36 1896-1914 1.59 1873-96 37 1904 GDP GDP 211823-1851 13 3.5% 28 0.74 38 4 1845-72-921892-1929-481948-73- 1825-1845 19 1845 Juglar 35 3 1847 1887 1888 1896 36 Hooker(1911.22) 37 Guberman 19 18501870 1897-1914 Garvy1942p212 38 18 19 1830 18
39 2 1823 1850 20.2 36.3 1823 1951 23.3 24.8 40 Gerzstein 1982 2-10 1850 125-6 2 1813 1823 1846 1851 1884 1888 1896 1904 1913 173.1 97.0 97.2 77.4 155.8 99.3 60.8 63.3 210 125 118 94 101 86 78 81 99 189 116 99 89 89 82 73 86 114 57.5 56.6 55.5 70.9 92.5 115.2 101.2 92.9 112.9 135.0 123.9 110.5 93.3 101.2 117.7 114.5 98.0 86.5 88.3 116.5 1850 1821-25 100 Rousseaux 1865 1885 100 1900 100 721 722 728 1870 1978 236-7 252-254 39 1823 1851 150 70 Rostow, W.W. (1978)p.131 1849 40 1891 100 1822 77 1851 72 37 61 58 55 52 53 19
3 1823 1851 66.8 1630 3010 84.7% 1815-46 3 1813 1823 1846 1851 1884 1888 1896 1904 1913 10.32 3.76 3.43 2.81 2.50 2.49 2.75 3.32 20.0 16.3 25.6 30.1 72.7 72.0 69.4 83.9 127.2 ( 13 8.5 6.5) 5.5 5.13 4.88 5.00 6.13 7.75 1.0 0.9 4.86.8 24.3 26.0 23.5 28.6 55.4 7.82 7.67 7.51 9.29 8.41 8.85 11.13 13.94 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 10.9 11.3 15.2 26.9 53.7 1814-29 1846 1813 1814 1813-1845 1846 1845 762 763 1813 1814 1 1813 1814 481-3748762-3 221884-1896 1873-1896 1878-96 18 2.18 3 GDP Gerzstein 1850 2 3 1888 2 188496 12 19.4 24.5 3 11.4 157 20
1823-1851 7270 6940 4.5 3.3 1879 1893 41 4 /GDP 1973 1903 1850-1876 43% 1884 38 1896 33 1913 5% 28 524 1887 1896 GDP 2% 1884 GDP 82.2% 1890 84.1% 1896 85.4% 5% 65 839 422 24.7 1880 1890 1982175-9 1823-1851 3 5 19 GNP 9 43 41 18607080 90 Rostow(1978, pp. 178-81) 42 1884 1896 94 97 91 102 158 43 9 9 2000 21
2 GNP 1814 1864 1790 1814 1 1814 1822 1837 5 1837 1852 22
441853 1878 1865 1903 1878 1896 1873 GDP 22 6 GDP 9 1939 1941 9 1933 44 5 35 1837 1843 1979 4 1 1791 1811 1816 2 1836 1833 1830-37 2 3 9 18 1837 1836 1834 127 1838 8 1835 38 148 23
2 1939 51 2 60 70 70 80 2 1981 4 7 GDP 9 1896 8 24
3 45 1950 90 GDP 1995145 1890 1920 1950 970 7 1890 1 1930 1890 1920 45 9 3 25
1932 1920 1940 1931 1937 8 1950 1980 4 1823-1951 1884-1896 1887 1896 26
5 Berry, Brian, J.L. (1991), Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1995. Clark, C. (1944), The Economics in 1960, Macmillan. / 1984 Albert Fevearyear, revised by E. Victor Morgan (1962), The Pond Sterling A History of English Money, Oxford University Press. Garvy, G. (1943), Kondratieff s Theory of Long Cycles, The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. XXV, November; reprinted in Louçã, F. and Reijnders, Jan eds.(1999). Goldstein, Joshua, S. (1988), Long Cycles Prosperity and War in the Modern Age--, New Haven and London: Yale University Press. 1997 1 Hooker, R. H. (1911), The Course of Prices at Home and Abroad, 1890-910, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. LXXV, December. 2003 71 34 1941 Kondratieff, N. D. (1928/1984), The Long Wave Cycle in The Long Wave Cycle, New F. York: Richardson & Snyder, 1984, translated by Guy Daniels; reprinted in Louçã, 27
and Reijnders, Jan eds.(1999). Kondratieff, N. D. (1928), Die Preisdynamik der industriellen und landwirtschaftlichen Waren (Zum Problem der relativen Dynamik und Konjunktur), Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, Bd. 60, SS. 1-85. Louçã, F. and Reijnders, Jan eds.(1999), The Foundations of Long Wave Theory Models and Methodology, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. Maddison, A. (1995a), Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992, Development Center of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Maddison, A. (1995b), Explaining the Economic Performance of Nations Essays in Time and Space, England and USA: Edward Elgar Publishing Company. 2002 Mitchell, B. R. (1980), European Historical Statistics, New York: Facts on File. 1995 Mitchell, B. R. (1988), British Historical Statistics, Cambridge University Press. Mitchell, B. R. (1998), International Historical StatisticsThe Americas 1750-1993 Fourth Edition, Macmillan Reference Ltd.: London. Mitchell, B. R. (1998), International Historical StatisticsEurope 1750-1993 Fourth Edition, London: Macmillan Reference Ltd. R 2001 17501993 G. (1979) Myers, Margaret G. (1970), A Financial History of the United States, Columbia University Press: U.S.A. 1978 W.W. 1982 21 Rostow, W.W. (1978), The World Economy History and Prospect, The Macmillan Press LTD: London Basingstoke. Schwartz, M. Herman (2000), States Versus Markets The Emergence of a Global Economy Second Edition, London: Macmillan Press LTD. 1936 1995 1991 TBS 28
1963 van Duijn, J. J. (1983), Long Waves in Production, in The Long Wave in Economic Life, Chapter IX, London: George Allen & Unwin, 147-72, references. 2000 31 1 10 2001 31 2 3 34 1 2003 10 19 Price Changes in 19 th Century Through an Investigation of Kondratieff s Long Wave in Prices Ken-ichi Watanabe 29