Lomborg Reply to Scientific American's Attack

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1 [ Scientific American (2003, SEJ, : The Skeptical Environmentalist, Cambridge University Press 2001, SE) Scientific American SA 4 Scientific American SE SE ] pdf Word p.61 10

2 Scientific American : The Skep ical Envi nm n alist t ro e t (Cambridge University Press)

3 Scientific American (WWF, SEJ:188/SE:110 ) (SEJ:190/SE:111) (IPCC) (IPCC 2000b, SEJ:460/SE:283)

4 %2000 (1980:331, SEJ:411/SE:252) 1980 Harte ,000

5 (SEJ: /SE:137) /3 The E onomist, SEJ:233/SE:138). Scientific American c 1

6 Scientific American (Discover, pp , Oct American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996, )

7 30 (IPCC) C 5.8 C : ( The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World) Skeptical Environmentalist ( ) carrying capacity 515 2,930 xx 600

8 OECD EU Scientific American SA

9 ( SA Grist ( SA Nature Pimm & Harvey Na ure t ) 4 : IPCC C IPCC IPCC B1 ( C )

10 3,000 IPCC (FAO, UNDP, UNEP, WHO )IMF OECD, WRI, EU, US 646 IPCC 1/3 IPCC IPCC IPCC IPCC C CNNCBS 5.8 C 1.4 C U.S. New & World Report s

11 : IPCC cm (SEJ: /SE:289-91)? IPCC 66-90% IPCC 22 2 C IPCC IPCC IPCC 99% 90-99% 66-90% % 1-10% 1% (IPCC 2001d:2, ) 89%91% IPCC

12 (SEJ:432/SE:264) IPCC (SEJ:470/SE:288) (SEJ:514-7/SE: 315-7) (WAIS) (THC) 2001 IPCC WAIS 21 (SEJ:514/SE:315) THC 2001 IPCC 2100 (SEJ:515/SE:316) A1FI 21 IPCC B1 ( C ) 22 (SEJ:467/SE:286, ). 2 C 22 Nature 1989 :

13 2 5.2 C 1.9 C : Richard S. Lindzen (iris effect) IPCC 1/ Scien e : c c ce 5.2 C C 1.9 C (Kerr 1997a:1040). Science Science Scien e Scien (C. A. Senior ) :

14 4 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) (some improvement) ERBE CO C 1.9 C 2.1 C 2.8 C 2.8 C-2.1 C CO2 (Senior & Mitchell 1993, ) 1.9 C ( some improvement ) Lindzen Lindzen Scientific American )Lindzen : (Lindzen, Chou and Hou, Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 2001) IPCC 3 1 1/4 IPCC

15 tower 20 4 (30 S-30 N, 130 E-170 W) GCM ) 1967 & Richard T. Wetherald 1972 IPCC

16 (SEJ:451/SE:276, ) : CO2 CO2 IPCC 57% 1.7 C IPCC 33% (SEJ:253-4/SE:277-8, ). S ientific American c (Jan 7, 2002; Prof. Eigil Friis -Christensen, Dr. Nigel Marsh and Dr. Henrik Svensmark): [ January 2002] 3

17 Bond et al., Sci nce, 294, , 2001 e 1 IPCC [ IPCC IPCC IPCC [ IPCC

18 IPCC IPCC % (Chakravorty et al. 1997) % (SEJ:463/SE:284ff) Chakravorty. IPCC II

19 IPCC ( ) WGII WGII : 2 C 2-3 C (IPCC 2001b:Summary for Policymakers, original government draft, 2.6., SEJ:491/SE:301) WGIII ( Grist WG2 )

20 (SEJ:29-31/SE:11-2) 5 5 IPCC GDP 1.5-2%

21 5 IPCC WAIS THC IPCC ( : ) SEJ:515/SE:316) (Grist

22 5 IPCC Business-as-usual (BAU) BAU 3 33 / 8.5 (SEJ:506/SE:310) C / (SEJ:519/SE:318) Gris vs 5 BAU t 2 (SEJ:509-11/SE:312-3 )

23 UNEP ( ) CO2 : [CO2 ] (UNEP 1994:II, 21, SEJ:594/SE:426) : there is no such thing as a free lunch) 5

24 CO2 (SEJ:510-1/SE:313). 2-5% IPCC % IPCC Wigley Wigley 3-33 )

25 (SEJ:519/SE:318): CO2 6 IPCC IPCC IPCC

26 S ientific American Scientific American c (Stephen Schneider) (Institute of International Studies) Climatic Change Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather IPCC IPCC

27 19 19 SE ( (US EPA), SEJ:266/SE:163) EPA ( SE:ch.15)

28 1971 Time ) 1974 (A Time to Choose) E CNN ) (Meadows et al. 1972:58) (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1987:222) (SEJ:208/SE:122).

29 (EIA 1997c:37) 30 5,500 50% 25 (SEJ:217-8/SE:128) 100%

30 2,930

31 1,500 National Air Pollutant Emission Trends (SEJ:216/SE:127): ,500 1,500

32 SO % (0.23=1-12.4/16.1) ( SO2 23% 56% SO2 75% S ientific Ameri an (SEJ:215-6/SE:127): c c % 1

33 20% 20% (SEJ:218-9/SE:129): ,000

34 /kwh 1,260EJ km ( : ( ) % %

35 (SEJ:228-9/SE:134): p.62 P (John P. Holdren) F Teresa and John Heinz

36 (SEJ:90/SE:48):

37 (SEJ:87/SE:47): ,700 7, , % 1.26% (4 ) (SEJ:86/SE:46) 2000

38 : (SEJ:87-8/SE:47). 4/ (1) 13

39 2001 7, % 1.5% /km 2 2,000 /km , ,792 24

40 1,932 2, (FAO 2001a) 2030 FAO (FAO 2000d)FAO FAO 1.5Gha 11% 2.9Gha (FAO 2000d:98) 45%(FAO 2000d:103) FAO Gha 12 32% % 11% 12% IFPRI, USDA (IFPRI 1997, 1999; ERS 1997:4; USDA 2000b; Mitchell et al. 1997) SEJ:112/SE:62).

41 1800 S ientific American (, IFPRI 1997, 1999; ERS 1997:4; USDA 2000b; Mitchell et al. 1997). c R H 60 11% % ( 0.173Gha 0.12Gha, FAO 2000d:105). 3 (SEJ:85-6/SE:46) (SEJ:89/SE:48).

42 (SEJ: /SE:197): [.]

43 (SEJ:662/SE:362): Siwar and Kasim 1997:1, GNP 0.7

44 GNP 0.1 ODA S i ntific American c e (John Bongaarts)

45 : (SEJ:407/SE:250, 6 ). (SEJ:410/SE:252): 400

46 / SEJ:417:SE:255 ) 150 IUCN ( S ientific Ame ican c r

47 IUCN IUCN : (Holden 1992:xvii) ICUN IUCN ICUN (SEJ:414/SE:254, ):

48 99 [Endnote 2048: 7 ] Global % (Lovejoy 1980:331) 1,

49 100 1,000 1,000 (12) (18) (5) (8) % % S ientific American c 2100 IPCC 2100 (IPCC 2000b, SEJ: /SE:281) IPCC 2100 (IPCC 2000b, SEJ:460/SE:283) (NOx) 3 red spruce 30 60

50 red spruce NOx 20% NAPAP (FAO) FAO FAO (SEJ:190/SE:111):

51 Changes in Land Use and Land C v r Michael Williams o e 1997 WWF ( , , (SEJ:197-8/SE:116): 1997 GDP 2 WWF 1997 WWF 1997 WWF , ,

52 1998 WWF WWF (SEJ:197/SE:115-6): WWF FAO 3 WWF 2 (SEJ:39/SE:17): WWF 25 30

53 WWF WWF V WWF WWF 0.014%

54 A : (SEJ:414/SE:254): EO

55 1974 S ientifi Ame ican / c c r 1800 (SEJ:277-8/SE:169-70): SO2 EU SO2

56 (Clean Air Act) EPA 96

57 Scientific American (Thomas Lovejoy) DC The Diversity of Life. E. O. Wilson. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, (New edition. Penguin, 2001.) Global Biodiversity Assessment. Edited by V. H. Heywood. Cambridge University Press, Our Common Journey: A Transition toward Sustainability. National Research Council Board on Sustainable Development, Policy Division. National Academy Press, Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Edited by John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. National Research Council, "Climate of Uncertainty." George Musser in Scientific American, Vol. 285, No. 4, pages 14-5; October Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, National Research Council. Available at World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. United Nations Development Program, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and World Energy Council, Available at (IPCC)

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