Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series No.248 東京圏における 1990 年代以降の住み替え行動 住宅需要実態調査 を用いた Logit 分析 小林庸平行武憲史 March 2008 Hitotsubashi University Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences A 21st-Century COE Program Institute of Economic Research Hitotsubashi University Kunitachi, Tokyo, 186-8603 Japan http://hi-stat.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
1990 5 10 15 3 IIA Logit 18 2007 2007 UFJ E-mail y.kobayashi@murc.jp HI-STAT COE E-mail yukutake@hrf.or.jp i
1 *1 Ortalo-Magne and Rady [2006] starter homes (trade-up homes) Clark et al. [2003] Banks et al. [2002] Ortalo-Magne and Rady [2006] 5 10 15 3 IIA Logit 3 4 5 Logit 6 5 Logit 7 2 Zorn [1988, 1989] Zorn [1988, 1989] *1 1973 1
Hardman and Ioannides [1995] Pickles and Davies [1991] Zorn [1988, 1989] Boehm [1981] Boehm et al. [1991] Boehm [1981] Boehm et al. [1991] Davies and Pickles [1991] Pickles and Davies [1991] [1994, 1995, 2001, 2003] [1995] Zorn [1988, 1989] [1995] Seko and Sumita [2007] KHPS Keio Household Panel Survey Börsch-Supan et al. [2001] Logit Seko and Sumita [2007] 3 3.1 Zorn [1988] [1995] - - 3 U k (h 0 (l 0 ), h 1 (l 1 ),..., h N (l N ), Q, d 0, d 1,..., d n ; z) (1) U k ( ) k h n n (n = 0, 1,..., N) l n Q d n z 2
n W t + I t = P q t Q t + [ own n Pt own (l n ) + (1 own n )Pt rent (l n ) ] h n (l n ) + MC n (2) t (t = 0, 1,, T ) W t t I t t P q t t Q own n n P own t (l n ) l n t Pt rent (l n ) l n t MC n n Q t h 1,..., h n own 1,..., own n d 1,..., d n l 1,..., l n - - 1 2 23 3 23 4 23 5 23 5 d Pt own ctr 23 sub 23 P rent t 1 ( V 1 Wt, I t, Pt own (l n 1 ) or Pt rent (l n 1 ), h n 1, z ) (3) 2 23 V 2 (W t, I t, MC n, P own t ctr(l n ), z) (4) 3 23 V 3 (W t, I t, MC n, P own t sub(l n ), z) (5) 4 23 V 4 ( Wt, I t, MC n, P rent t ctr (l n ), z ) (6) 5 23 V 5 ( Wt, I t, MC n, P rent t sub(l n ), z ) (7) 3
3.2 CLOGIT V jk j j k V jk = V jk + ɛ jk = X jk β + ɛ jk (8) ɛ jk k j X jk β X jk ɛ jk 1 k j P j,k = P [V jk V lk, all l j] = exp V jk 5 n=1 exp V nk j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (9) P j,k j β K 5 L = ln L K = y jk ln P j,k k=1 j=1 K y ik j IIA independence of irrelevant alternative Logit 3.3 Logit Error Component Logit j k V jk = V jk + µ D jk + ɛ jk (10) µ µ = (µ 1,..., µ I ) I D jk µ D jk 4
j l E ([µ D jk + ɛ jk ][µ D lk + ɛ lk ]) = D jkv (µ)d lk (11) µ V (µ) D j Error Component Djk 1 D2 jk 23 D3 jk µ V (µ) σ i (i = 1, 2, 3) 2 i E ([ µ i Djk i ] [ + ɛ jk µi Dlk i ]) + ɛ lk = E ([µi + ɛ jk ] [µ i + ɛ lk ]) = σ i (12) (10) µ exp(v jk + µ D jk ) L j,k (µ) 5 n=1 exp(v j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (13) nk + µ D nk ) µ (13) µ P j,k = L j,k (µ) f(µ)dµ j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (14) f(µ) µ µ σ i V (µ) closed form f(µ) µ µ r R f(µ) µ r µ r L j,k (µ r ) ˆP j,k = 1 R L j,k (µ r ) (15) R r=1 P j,k K 5 L = y jk ln ˆP j,k k=1 j=1 β σ i 125 *2 *3 *2 Bhat [2001] Train [2003] 100 *3 Kenneth Train Gauss 5
4 5 10 15 5 5 5 1989 1993 10 10 1994 1998 15 11 15 1999 2003 5 5 23 15 23 23 *4 5 7828 5267 10 7127 4183 15 10474 4741 1 2 23 = 3 23 4 23 5 23 *5 *6 *4 5 10 15 85 *5 Zorn [1988] *6 Zorn [1988] 6
1 (m 2 ) 5 ( ) 5 ( ) 5 ( ) ( ) 5 ( /m 2 ) 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 2 0.5 6 7 0.5 0.7 0.014 3 4 0.0255 0.1395 5 5 8 1m 2 0.5 9 1m 2 0.5 6 7 8 1m 2 23 ( 9 1m 2 0.5 2 7
100 100 5 15 5 23 10 5 15 5 10 5 10 15 23 8
3 5 7055 100.73 50.62 3.62 1.45 50.40 10.69 791.81 396.74 23 115 89.12 50.08 3.59 1.40 49.17 12.13 911.30 406.48 23 443 89.39 64.22 3.88 1.35 45.58 11.02 896.84 366.36 23 68 108.85 47.51 3.34 1.35 38.59 15.33 646.32 437.88 23 147 106.86 66.15 3.61 1.42 36.39 14.11 585.71 366.44 7828 100.10 51.87 3.63 1.44 49.74 11.11 794.37 397.21-0.07 0.53 20.27 15.08 249.05 109.32 23-0.11 0.53 24.59 14.90 374.19 195.69 23 0.00 0.72 18.09 12.64 187.30 100.33 23-0.99 1.57 15.07 10.13 256.20 7.45 23-1.31 1.63 14.34 9.31 175.66 9.13-0.10 0.62 20.05 14.87 271.11 127.29 3197 43.21 33.76 2.70 1.38 41.37 13.11 522.38 303.09 23 71 61.23 53.56 3.21 1.34 35.87 10.05 800.70 346.98 23 445 54.39 30.11 3.44 1.17 35.59 8.02 840.45 305.03 23 476 47.14 42.50 2.40 1.42 30.02 11.04 534.14 341.17 23 1078 48.23 45.32 2.54 1.41 30.76 11.01 521.43 283.63 5267 45.78 37.47 2.71 1.39 37.61 13.06 553.87 317.41 0.00 0.41-194.86 37.54 23-0.10 0.93-558.47 316.73 23 0.06 0.79-227.48 137.80 23-0.27 1.14-256.89 7.97 23-0.12 1.09-173.95 8.71-0.04 0.73-270.02 159.18 ( ) 9
4 10 6401 107.77 51.57 3.45 1.43 52.56 11.74 784.81 446.55 23 62 87.55 43.24 3.19 1.28 52.05 12.05 950.00 490.73 23 432 91.56 52.49 3.60 1.31 52.14 11.40 924.88 457.89 23 35 113.60 74.85 3.60 1.65 48.37 10.56 767.14 569.95 23 197 108.41 55.26 3.71 1.26 50.94 10.19 558.63 379.45 7127 106.66 51.96 3.46 1.42 52.47 11.68 788.40 449.61-0.11 0.56 20.39 15.62 178.95 75.45 23 0.00 0.44 24.39 13.54 467.37 248.63 23-0.02 0.97 19.33 11.57 181.78 54.14 23-1.46 1.99 15.50 9.87 272.31 2.61 23-1.45 1.61 14.63 9.01 186.71 2.23-0.15 0.70 20.18 15.25 238.02 100.38 2267 49.55 36.54 2.54 1.37 44.42 14.33 536.77 330.87 23 68 59.88 47.02 3.00 1.30 42.16 9.92 879.41 416.92 23 289 63.94 34.12 3.58 1.25 42.72 10.19 851.38 337.70 23 285 43.93 38.81 2.26 1.45 38.78 14.14 554.56 401.42 23 1274 52.77 52.28 2.50 1.49 38.53 13.07 513.97 274.42 4183 51.31 42.32 2.59 1.44 42.09 13.90 558.34 335.13-0.04 0.47 9.82 10.85 204.71 33.70 23 0.24 0.83 8.46 6.98 334.90 169.38 23-0.11 0.94 9.47 7.64 145.26 40.28 23-0.25 1.18 6.92 7.25 271.97 2.51 23-0.23 1.31 7.20 7.52 186.97 2.28-0.11 0.90 8.78 9.54 223.39 89.09 ( ) 10
5 15 9602 104.80 46.62 3.20 1.36 54.01 12.19 691.72 416.61 23 118 86.38 43.40 3.40 1.25 54.55 12.00 839.83 522.55 23 583 94.71 44.34 3.54 1.39 51.07 12.20 771.36 452.65 23 26 87.46 41.53 3.15 1.29 44.81 11.83 869.23 504.00 23 145 104.19 50.13 3.48 1.44 47.21 14.77 518.62 356.39 10474 103.98 46.41 3.22 1.37 53.74 12.28 695.87 420.67 22.49 15.53 139.46 6.82 23 23.15 15.82 184.63 33.56 23 22.26 13.75 150.05 17.12 23 11.73 9.77 290.78 13.16 23 14.33 9.71 193.81 2.83 22.34 15.40 182.91 55.09 2611 49.26 27.67 2.57 1.27 45.66 14.91 490.39 302.98 23 148 60.75 35.73 3.08 1.09 39.91 11.20 907.77 447.66 23 809 57.19 28.68 3.14 1.15 37.58 10.76 697.59 310.97 23 218 54.54 40.18 2.36 1.20 35.01 11.34 648.39 380.65 23 955 46.48 31.02 2.41 1.29 34.08 12.46 528.17 288.33 4741 50.65 29.74 2.64 1.27 41.28 14.43 553.65 326.82 10.66 10.16 209.18 35.73 23 7.70 7.00 160.25 45.66 23 7.57 7.12 139.43 22.28 23 6.17 6.10 287.84 11.77 23 5.77 5.84 193.28 2.83 8.85 8.94 198.35 56.75 ( ) 11
5 5.1 Logit 6 8 5.1.1 5 5 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 5 IIA 23 IIA Logit 23 23 10 Error Component 23 23 2 23 10 2 4 Logit 23 23 IIA 23 23 IIA Logit 23 Logit IIA 12
6 5 23 23 23 23-2.3239*** 0.6239-1.9589*** 0.3030-0.1404 0.4980 0.3477 0.3891-0.0079*** 0.0031-0.0047*** 0.0024 0.0043*** 0.0012 0.0037*** 0.0012-0.0754 0.0772 0.1656*** 0.0432-0.4710*** 0.1128-0.3641*** 0.0796-0.0264*** 0.0105-0.0395*** 0.0056-0.0772*** 0.0112-0.0826*** 0.0085 0.0010*** 0.0003 0.0005*** 0.0002-0.0003 0.0004-0.0007** 0.0003-0.2261 0.1628 0.2441** 0.1264-1.1340*** 0.1410-1.1595*** 0.1085 0.0288*** 0.0066-0.0003 0.0038-0.0148 0.0090-0.0207** 0.0076-0.0057*** 0.0003 Hausman value 6.16 (0.9987) 142.00 (0.0000) 6.20 (0.9986) 4.18 (0.9997) 7828-2821.80 23 23 23 23-2.2597*** 0.6194-2.2459*** 0.3805-0.3116 0.5298 0.2090 0.4416-0.0075** 0.0031-0.0049* 0.0027 0.0044*** 0.0012 0.0036*** 0.0014-0.0674 0.0777 0.1699*** 0.0475-0.4583*** 0.1151-0.3659*** 0.0853-0.0265** 0.0105-0.0449*** 0.0068-0.0758*** 0.0116-0.0911*** 0.0106 0.0010*** 0.0003 0.0005*** 0.0002-0.0003 0.0004-0.0007** 0.0003-0.2253 0.1619 0.2259 0.1397-1.1057*** 0.1456-1.2385*** 0.1216 0.0276*** 0.0067 0.0000 0.0043-0.0157* 0.0092-0.0209** 0.0082-0.0063*** 0.0005 0.1265 0.1811 1.1205*** 0.3602 0.0890* 0.0522 7828-2820.29 23 23 23 23-3.2651*** 0.4705-2.2258*** 0.1930 0.9503*** 0.1900 1.3898*** 0.1408 0.0062*** 0.0021 0.0028* 0.0015 0.0035*** 0.0015 0.0048*** 0.0012 0.0222 0.1013 0.2338*** 0.0427-0.3193*** 0.0471-0.1232*** 0.0326-0.0586*** 0.0131-0.0675*** 0.0059-0.0802*** 0.0060-0.0759*** 0.0042 0.0026*** 0.0003 0.0028*** 0.0002 0.0012*** 0.0002 0.0005*** 0.0001-0.2872 0.1760 0.0870 0.0947-0.6225*** 0.0669-0.2942*** 0.0615-0.0014*** 0.0005 Hausman value 20.23 (0.3807) 87.45 (0.0000) 6.83 (0.9857) 124.99 (0.0000) 7828-5130.71 23 23 23 23-39.7649 30.5304-41.1081 30.8960 1.1721*** 0.1912 1.1654*** 0.1418 0.0261 0.0206 0.0209 0.0196 0.0034** 0.0014 0.0047*** 0.0012 2.1224 1.6190 2.4592 1.6523-0.3020*** 0.0465-0.1080*** 0.0327-0.3160** 0.1436-0.3059** 0.1379-0.0795*** 0.0059-0.0761*** 0.0043 0.0265 0.0168 0.0268 0.0168 0.0012*** 0.0002 0.0005*** 0.0001 1.7483 1.9907 2.1463 1.9919-0.6256*** 0.0684-0.2954*** 0.0647-0.0069*** 0.0012 0.0294 0.0473 20.9670 15.2067 0.2923* 0.3244 5267-5096.81 ( ) ( )Hausman value IIA p SUR ( )*** ** 5 * 10 13
5.1.2 10 10 23 23 23 23 IIA 23 23 IIA Logit Error Component 23 23 23 2 4 Logit Logit 23 23 23 IIA IIA Logit 14
7 10 23 23 23 23-2.0402*** 0.7907-3.5133*** 0.3355-0.1416 1.0477-0.2604 0.5203-0.0123*** 0.0043-0.0082*** 0.0021 0.0020 0.0022 0.0013 0.0013-0.1654 0.1063 0.1373*** 0.0436-0.6851*** 0.2257-0.3175*** 0.0864-0.0181 0.0122 0.0029 0.0054-0.0641*** 0.0174-0.0325*** 0.0079 0.0012*** 0.0003 0.0006*** 0.0001 0.0003 0.0005-0.0013*** 0.0003 0.2532 0.1669 0.1617 0.1129-1.8715*** 0.2177-1.5307*** 0.1049 0.0274*** 0.0073-0.0092*** 0.0034-0.0333** 0.0139-0.0502*** 0.0067-0.0094*** 0.0004 Hausman value 15.07 (0.7724) 234.21 (0.0000) 2.66 (1.0000) 35.82 (0.0161) 7127-2426.75 23 23 23 23-1.8090*** 0.7924-3.8301*** 0.3590-2.4108 1.9713-2.8351* 1.6203-0.0109*** 0.0041-0.0073*** 0.0021 0.0044 0.0043 0.0028 0.0034-0.1533 0.1080 0.1527*** 0.0461-1.1794*** 0.3476-0.8735*** 0.2877-0.0191 0.0123 0.0016 0.0057-0.1321*** 0.0360-0.0915*** 0.0276 0.0011*** 0.0003 0.0006*** 0.0001-0.0006 0.0007-0.0021*** 0.0005 0.2427 0.1869 0.1769 0.1100-4.5073*** 0.9398-4.2016*** 0.9536 0.0237*** 0.0075-0.0130*** 0.0036-0.0678*** 0.0241-0.0927*** 0.0205-0.0117*** 0.0005 0.1593 0.2258 0.2800 0.2533 5.8408*** 1.5041 7127-2393.49 23 23 23 23-5.2246*** 0.5628-5.6106*** 0.3561 0.6478** 0.2858 0.5102*** 0.1554 0.0016 0.0037 0.0008 0.0018-0.0033 0.0031 0.0042*** 0.0014 0.2634** 0.1158 0.4583*** 0.0512-0.2776*** 0.0651-0.0633** 0.0320 0.0120 0.0110-0.0079 0.0062-0.0275*** 0.0061-0.0341*** 0.0033 0.0019*** 0.0003 0.0016*** 0.0002 0.0007*** 0.0003-0.0003* 0.0001 0.6925*** 0.1902 0.1409* 0.0808-0.7108*** 0.0942-0.3991*** 0.0503 0.0117 0.0134-0.0065 0.0071-0.0263*** 0.0092-0.0228*** 0.0047-0.0188*** 0.0020 Hausman value 47.67 (0.0000) 97.35 (0.0000) 120.77 (0.0000) 199.73 (0.0000) 4183-4159.10 23 23 23 23-6.8122*** 1.9122-7.4601*** 2.1516 0.6867** 0.2886 0.4793*** 0.1596 0.0011 0.0046 0.0008 0.0022-0.0032 0.0031 0.0042*** 0.0014 0.3389** 0.1544 0.5683*** 0.1486-0.2735*** 0.0653-0.0602* 0.0324 0.0137 0.0132-0.0066 0.0078-0.0276*** 0.0061-0.0341*** 0.0033 0.0025*** 0.0009 0.0023*** 0.0009 0.0007*** 0.0002-0.0003* 0.0001 0.8280*** 0.2688 0.2217 0.1374-0.7055*** 0.0944-0.3956*** 0.0507 0.0129 0.0175-0.0034 0.0097-0.0264*** 0.0092-0.0230*** 0.0047-0.0196*** 0.0023-0.0009 0.0044-1.6974 1.1435-0.0107 0.0184 4183-4157.29 ( ) ( )Hausman value IIA p SUR ( )*** ** 5 * 10 15
5.1.3 15 15 23 23 Hausman 23 23 IIA Logit 23 23 23 Error Component 23 23 2 4 Logit Logit Logit 23 23 IIA IIA Logit 23 23 3 IIA Logit Logit Error Component 5 10 15 16
8 15 23 23 23 23-4.4739*** 0.6094-2.4673*** 0.2658 6.0151*** 1.4199 1.8369*** 0.5966-0.0140*** 0.0033-0.0059*** 0.0012-0.0026 0.0057 0.0050*** 0.0018 0.1714** 0.0727 0.1495*** 0.0333-0.2684 0.2094 0.1227* 0.0733 0.0158 0.0102-0.0165*** 0.0043-0.0496** 0.0202-0.0380*** 0.0088 0.0009*** 0.0002 0.0003* 0.0001 0.0005 0.0005-0.0025*** 0.0005 0.0049* 0.0029-0.0514*** 0.0186-0.0488*** 0.0068-0.0580*** 0.0051 0.0072 0.0078 Hausman value 149.06 (0.0000) 0.10 (1.0000) 14.33 (0.7641) 99.07 (0.0000) 10474-3477.30 23 23 23 23-3.6393*** 0.6088-3.0866*** 0.2777-79.8088*** 9.9785-90.7941*** 10.1445-0.0111*** 0.0033-0.0033*** 0.0011 0.0450* 0.0262 0.0575** 0.0260 0.2218*** 0.0754 0.1644*** 0.0344 1.7113*** 0.5724 1.9178*** 0.5581 0.0130 0.0103-0.0182*** 0.0042-0.5691** 0.2591-0.5662** 0.2563 0.0007*** 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001-0.0181*** 0.0036-0.0202*** 0.0036 0.0005 0.0078-0.0036 0.0029-0.8403*** 0.1594-0.8350*** 0.1533-0.1291*** 0.0053 0.0138 0.0190 69.5337*** 7.7229 0.0372 0.0518 10474-3190.82 23 23 23 23-6.2613*** 0.4153-3.2787*** 0.2139 0.7710*** 0.2934 0.9488*** 0.1699 0.0029 0.0038 0.0039** 0.0017 0.0074*** 0.0020 0.0015 0.0017 0.1995*** 0.0690 0.2518*** 0.0361-0.2940*** 0.0657-0.1266*** 0.0363-0.0150 0.0094-0.0353*** 0.0040-0.0532*** 0.0080-0.0523*** 0.0042 0.0026*** 0.0002 0.0014*** 0.0001 0.0012*** 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002-0.0109 0.0126-0.0112* 0.0060-0.0254** 0.0120-0.0407*** 0.0068-0.0211*** 0.0011 Hausman value 71.22 (0.0000) 120.27 (0.0000) 92.36 (0.0000) 281.52 (0.0000) 4741-4862.38 23 23 23 23-11.5774 *** 0.9949-8.4361 *** 0.9057 1.4722 *** 0.3033 0.7711 *** 0.1710 0.0094 * 0.0057 0.0098 ** 0.0039 0.0074 *** 0.0020 0.0016 0.0018 0.6279 *** 0.1302 0.7209 *** 0.1200-0.2539 *** 0.0653-0.1028 *** 0.0377-0.0408 *** 0.0155-0.0669 *** 0.0117-0.0563 *** 0.0080-0.0545 *** 0.0045 0.0056 *** 0.0007 0.0040 *** 0.0006 0.0010 *** 0.0002-0.0001 0.0002-0.0157 0.0199-0.0107 0.0142-0.0312 *** 0.0121-0.0471 *** 0.0074-0.0296 *** 0.0014 0.0190 0.0145 4.3708 *** 0.6012 0.0159 0.0350 4741-4796.04 ( ) ( )Hausman value IIA p SUR ( )*** ** 5 * 10 17
5.2 Logit APE Average Partial Effect *7 Logit Logit 5.2.1 9 5 1m 2 0.024 23 23 0.7 0.9 5 15 10 23 5 10 15 10 15 *8 10 23 15 23 100 23 23 *7 Logit s (15) x js n = j ˆP j,k x ns n j ˆP j,k x ns = 1 R = 1 R RX ˆLj,k (µ r k ) L j,k(µ r )2 k (β is + µ r k r ) r=1 RX ˆ Lj,k (µ r )2 k (β is + µ r k r ) r=1 *8 1989 93 56.06m 2 1994 1998 64.36m 2 1999 2003 70.25m 2 18
5 23 1.0 1.4 10 23 5 15 5 10 15 23 5.2.2 5 10 23 15 23 23 23 15 0.8 23 3.6 1.1 2.0 23 5 10 23 23 15 23 23 10 100 23 1.5 19
9 CLOGIT 5 10 15 5 10 15 0.026 0.024 0.045 0.038 0.037 0.022-0.041-0.039 0.221 0.209-0.986-1.064 23-0.011-0.010-0.009-0.008-0.015-0.012-0.114-0.101-0.145-0.142 0.175 0.227 23-0.024-0.023-0.041-0.033-0.029-0.014 0.922 0.891 0.811 0.807 0.741 0.717 23 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.001-0.001-0.002-0.322-0.314-0.285-0.263-0.071-0.030 23 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.007 0.006-0.445-0.438-0.602-0.611 0.141 0.150 LOGIT CLOGIT 5 10 15 5 10 15 0.352 0.353 0.075 0.090 0.118 0.102-0.003-0.003-0.001-0.002 0.001 0.000 23-0.029-0.029-0.015-0.015 0.019 0.018 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 23-0.182-0.183 0.026 0.017-0.080-0.084 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.000 23-0.044-0.043-0.026-0.031-0.011-0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 23-0.097-0.098-0.060-0.061-0.046-0.029-0.001-0.001-0.003-0.002-0.003-0.002 LOGIT CLOGIT 5 10 15 5 10 15 0.994 1.103 2.271 2.685-0.004-0.006 0.122 0.119 0.035 0.065 23-0.310-0.301 0.234 0.218 0.042 0.040 0.025 0.023 0.008 0.002 23 1.478 1.372 1.180 1.102-0.002 0.001-0.039-0.059 0.031-0.013 23-0.715-0.694-0.698-0.752-0.009-0.010-0.009-0.003-0.012-0.011 23-1.447-1.480-2.986-3.253-0.027-0.025-0.099-0.080-0.062-0.043 LOGIT CLOGIT 5 10 15 LOGIT -0.043-0.045-0.071-0.071-0.419-0.710 23-0.008-0.009-0.008-0.010-0.064-0.147 23-0.029-0.029-0.048-0.055-0.296-0.595 23-0.005-0.005-0.004-0.005-0.014-0.032 23-0.008-0.008-0.020-0.013-0.074-0.038 20
5 23 1 0.4 0.5 21
10 CLOGIT 5 10 15 5 10 15-0.081-0.080-0.053-0.054-0.059-0.063 1.644 1.519 0.152 0.168-0.341-0.775 23 0.006 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006 0.055-0.098 0.316 0.243 0.437 0.345 23 0.008 0.007-0.002-0.002 0.035 0.040 2.047 1.901 2.786 2.677 3.720 3.627 23 0.012 0.011-0.031-0.031 0.026 0.025-2.332-2.196-1.770-1.735-1.353-1.185 23 0.056 0.054 0.086 0.086-0.004-0.007-1.415-1.126-1.484-1.353-2.462-2.012 LOGIT CLOGIT 5 10 15 5 10 15 1.469 1.379 0.598 0.600 0.834 0.849-0.025-0.024-0.005-0.006-0.016-0.015 23-0.030-0.040 0.036 0.032 0.029 0.034 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.006 0.007 23-0.270-0.164 0.026 0.021-0.194-0.256 0.017 0.017 0.009 0.010 0.014 0.015 23-0.371-0.372-0.084-0.082-0.127-0.123 0.006 0.006 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 23-0.798-0.803-0.577-0.571-0.542-0.504-0.001-0.001-0.010-0.011-0.008-0.009 LOGIT CLOGIT 5 10 15 5 10 15 5.584 5.323 7.113 7.129 0.427 0.426 0.501 0.554 23-0.231-0.187 1.194 1.123 0.030 0.026 0.007-0.009 23 1.603 1.816 1.659 1.488 0.013 0.020 0.039 0.036 23-4.097-4.121-3.529-3.477-0.105-0.104-0.045-0.049 23-2.858-2.831-6.437-6.262-0.365-0.368-0.501-0.532 LOGIT CLOGIT 5 10 15 LOGIT -0.028-0.114-0.405-0.410-0.402-0.444 23-0.002-0.007-0.027-0.025-0.059-0.078 23-0.010-0.011-0.108-0.091-0.266-0.188 23-0.011-0.053-0.117-0.121-0.090-0.126 23-0.021-0.098-0.361-0.371-0.301-0.379 22
6 Logit 1 35 2 50 4 3 65 Logit Logit 6.1 10 35 10 13.1 15 16.9 1996 1998 50 65 50 4 5 15 23 23 10 1996 1998 65 1 15 1996 1998 23
11 5 35 50 65 ( ) CLOGIT LOGIT 93.77 90.11 82.83 82.88 91.79 91.77 95.54 95.50 23 1.03 1.46 1.80 1.80 1.48 1.45 1.22 1.22 23 4.27 5.69 9.43 9.34 5.53 5.60 2.41 2.46 23 0.33 0.88 1.95 2.01 0.42 0.42 0.32 0.33 23 0.60 1.85 3.99 3.96 0.79 0.77 0.51 0.48 12 10 35 50 65 ( ) CLOGIT LOGIT 89.81 89.76 87.18 86.93 87.60 88.11 95.25 95.32 23 0.87 0.88 1.72 1.87 0.76 0.71 0.53 0.49 23 6.06 6.02 7.36 7.59 6.21 5.91 3.07 2.74 23 0.49 0.52 0.59 0.66 0.72 0.78 0.13 0.14 23 2.76 2.82 3.15 2.96 4.70 4.49 1.01 1.31 13 15 35 50 65 ( ) CLOGIT LOGIT 91.67 91.24 85.54 83.07 90.39 89.95 94.09 93.94 23 1.13 1.23 1.31 1.75 1.44 1.32 0.99 1.05 23 5.57 5.61 8.70 12.00 6.96 6.91 3.69 3.62 23 0.25 0.34 0.87 0.79 0.26 0.44 0.11 0.17 23 1.38 1.57 3.59 2.39 0.94 1.39 1.12 1.22 6.2 10 10 23 15 23 23 23 24
1994 98 35 50 23 10 30 15 65 5 15 15 25
14 5 35 50 65 ( ) CLOGIT LOGIT 60.70 60.38 57.92 57.60 74.02 72.06 93.38 92.16 23 1.35 1.38 1.72 1.76 1.73 1.38 0.40 0.48 23 8.45 8.62 11.04 10.95 10.99 13.08 1.35 2.38 23 9.04 9.08 8.22 8.33 3.63 3.71 1.35 1.38 23 20.47 20.54 21.10 21.36 9.62 9.78 3.53 3.61 15 10 35 50 65 ( ) CLOGIT LOGIT 54.20 54.17 54.25 53.92 49.37 49.34 70.35 70.12 23 1.63 1.54 1.74 1.67 1.00 0.87 0.65 0.61 23 6.91 6.97 7.91 8.40 9.02 9.11 3.13 3.08 23 6.81 6.81 5.75 5.71 6.92 6.93 4.58 4.65 23 30.46 30.51 30.35 30.30 33.68 33.75 21.29 21.53 16 15 35 50 65 ( ) CLOGIT LOGIT 55.07 54.69 49.83 49.39 62.38 60.94 84.60 84.73 23 3.12 3.40 3.41 3.78 5.07 5.87 1.47 1.72 23 17.06 16.69 19.30 19.32 21.46 22.01 6.50 6.24 23 4.60 4.69 5.08 5.11 2.50 2.61 1.53 1.54 23 20.14 20.54 22.38 22.40 8.59 8.56 5.90 5.78 26
7 IIA IIA IIA Logit 5 10 15 1994 1998 1999 10 1994 1998 23 23 27
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