2 1999 2011 (2016) 2005 2005 5 Christiaensen, De Weerdt and Todo (2013) 1999 2014 25871152 (IDE-JETRO): Takayuki Higashikata@ide.go.jp 25
1991/1994 2010 50 51 1980 2004 Christiaensen and Todo (2014) (1) Liu and Yamauchi (2014) (2) (2016) (3) 2002 2011 38.2 50.8 12.6 11.7 9 1.305 0.685 0.076 (2016) 1999 2011 Potensi Desa: Podes 2010 1999 2010 2005 2010 (1) (2) (3) World Bank and IMF (2013) MDGs 3 10 kabupaten kota kecamatan desa kelurahan 26
(4) (5) Sulawesi Utara 1 2 3 1 1999 5 2011 15 1 (6) 1999 Podes 2010 1999 2005 2010 2 4 (7) 1999 Manado Bitung Minahasa Tomohon Bolaang Mongondow Kotamobagu (8) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Muhidin (2014) 1980 2010 Liu and Yamauchi (2014) 2000 2007 Indonesian Family Life Survey IFLS Farre and Fasani (2013) Gibson and Olivia (2010) 1993 2000 IFLS 3 2011 Kepulauan Sangihe Kepulauan Talaud Siau Tagulandang Biaro 3 1999 Sangihe Talaud 2011 Podes 2010 2007 2010 9 Lolak 27
Minahasa Selatan Amurang (9) 2005 3 2003 Minahasa Utara 2005 1999 (10) 2007 Minahasa Tenggara Bolaang Mongondow Utara (11) 2010 4 2005 5 2010 6 2007 (12) 10.6 6 (9) (10) (11) (12) (2016) 1999 Podes 11 Indonesia Database for Policy and Economic Research 2004 2005 2006 2007 4 9 10 Indonesia Database for Policy and Economic Research 2008 2008 29 30 28
2 Podes 3 (13) 1999 2011 Podes 2 2 2005 Podes 1999 Podes 1154 2011 1693 1999 Podes 2002 1999 899 5 1999 2010 10 2010 2005 5 2010 Podes 2016 Podes 2010 1999 2005 2008 2011 Podes 7 2000 1999 Podes 2010 2008 Podes 2011 Podes 2008 2011 Podes (13) 2006 Podes Podes 2005 4 2005 2000 Podes 1999 2003 Podes 2002 29
8 3 1 2010 Podes 5 2005 1 2010 30 95,351 2005 2010 4.5 2010 47 8.3 28.6 2005 2010 47 2005 2005 39.3 1 0.1 1999 2005 6 0.6 (14) 2005 40.3 (15) 1 (14) (15) 30
1 PLN 1 / 3 1 2 OLS 2005 2005 2005 (16) 2010 2005 2005 2010 2 1 2 1 3 1999 2011 (17) / 12 2.52 4.78 2005 2005 6 6.5 (18) 1999 2005 (16) (17) (18) Muhidin (2014) Liu and Yamauchi (2014) / (5) 2005 Podes 1 2004 10 6 31
1999 2002 / 4 OLS (1) 1 3 2 6 (3) 2 / (2) (4) 2005 2005 (5) (8) (9) (9) (10) ± 5 ± 3 (11) (12) 2 1 2 3 94.5 32
2005 5 (19) Podes 2000 Bryan, Gharad and Melanie Morten 2015. Economic development and the spatial allocation of labor: Evidence from indonesia, paper presented at yale university sep 28, 2015. Christiaensen, Luc, Joachim De Weerdt, and Yasuyuki Todo 2013. Urbanization and poverty reduction: the role of rural diversification and secondary towns, Agricultural Economics, 44, No. 4-5, 435-447. Christiaensen, Luc and Yasuyuki Todo 2014. Poverty Reduction During the Rural-Urban Transformation : The Role of the Missing Middle, World Development, 63, No. C, 43-58. Farre, Lidia and Francesco Fasani 2013. Media exposure and internal migration: Evidence from Indonesia, Journal of Development Economics, 102, No. C, 48-61. Gibson, John and Susan Olivia 2010. The Effect of Infrastructure Access and Quality on Non-Farm Enterprises in Rural Indonesia, World Development, 38, No. 5, 717-726. (19) Bryan and Morten (2015) 1976 10 33
Liu, Yanyan and Futoshi Yamauchi 2014. Population density, migration, and the returns to human capital and land: Insights from Indonesia, Food Policy, 48, No. C, 182-193. Muhidin, Salut 2014. Migration patterns: people on the move, In Regional Dynamics in a Decentralized Indonesia, Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, Chap. 13, 317-341. World Bank and IMF 2013. Rural-urban dynamics and the millennium development goals, global monitoring report 2013, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. 2016. 2002 2011 34
1 (2011 ) 2011 35
2 (1999 ) 1999 Podes 1999 Podes 2010 36
3 (2005 ) 2005 Podes 2005 Podes 2010 37
4 (2010 ) 2010 2010 2010 38
5 (2010 ) 2010 2010 2005 39
6 (2010 ) 2010 Diploma I/II Akademi 40
7 (1999 2011 ) 2010 Podes 1999 2005 2008 2011 2010 Kepulauan Sangihe Kepulauan Talaud Siau Tagulandang Biaro 3 41
8 (1999 2011 ) 2010 Podes 1999 2005 2008 2011 2010 Kepulauan Sangihe Kepulauan Talaud Siau Tagulandang Biaro 3 42
1 2010 30 Variable Mean Std. Dev. Individual level variables (2010) immigration (last 5 years) 0.045 0.207 female dummy 0.494 0.500 age 47.068 12.855 educated years 8.310 4.338 migration before 2005 (=1 if moved before 2005) 0.286 0.452 urban dummy 0.470 0.499 Village level variables (2005) urban dummy of 2005 0.393 0.488 change of non-farm household share 0.001 0.034 share of non-farm households 0.403 0.339 road lighting dummy 0.635 0.481 asphalt road dummy 0.824 0.381 road condition dummy 0.966 0.181 flood dummy 0.222 0.415 landslide dummy 0.189 0.392 number of public higher education facility 0.068 0.393 number of public high school 0.158 0.431 number of public special school 0.012 0.272 number of community health centre (puskesmas) 0.223 0.454 number of sub health post (puskesmas pembantu) 0.382 0.515 number of integrated health post (posyandu) 2.348 2.880 Observations 95,351 2010 Podes 2000 2005 2010 2005 1 2005 2005 1 1999 2005 6 / 3 1 1 43
2 2005 2010 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) female dummy 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) age 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) educated years 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) migration before 2005 0.066 0.066 0.064 0.062 0.064 0.060 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.021 (=1 if moved before 2005) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) urban dummy 0.034 0.017 (0.003) (0.002) change of non-farm household share 0.093 0.096 0.066 0.125 0.084 0.082 0.068 (0.020) (0.020) (0.020) (0.022) (0.014) (0.014) (0.013) urban dummy of 2005 0.004 0.025 0.002 0.002 0.014 (0.002) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) road lighting dummy 0.000 0.005 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) asphalt road dummy 0.008 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.005 (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) road condition dummy 0.013 0.014 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) flood dummy 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) landslide dummy 0.019 0.012 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.005 (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) number of public higher education facility 0.024 0.026 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) number of public high school 0.006 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.005 (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) number of public special school 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) number of community health centre (puskesmas) 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) number of sub health post (puskesmas pembantu) 0.004 0.000 0.003 0.004 0.003 0.003 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) number of integrated health post (posyandu) 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Constant 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.045 0.037 0.078 0.079 0.079 0.079 0.078 (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.007) (0.046) (0.046) (0.046) (0.046) district of residence in 2010 No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes district of residence in 2005 No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Observations 95351 95351 95351 95351 95351 95351 95167 95167 95167 95167 Adjusted R 2 0.034 0.035 0.035 0.037 0.038 0.044 0.620 0.620 0.620 0.620 2010 2005 1 1 0.1 44
3 Variable Mean Std. Dev. Year: 1999 (N = 899) number of households 464.1 421.3 number of non-farm households 185.7 416.0 share of non-farm households 0.260 0.271 asphalt road dummy 0.764 0.425 road condition dummy 0.945 0.227 road lighting dummy 0.311 0.463 flood dummy 0.106 0.308 landslide dummy 0.049 0.216 Year: 2002 (N = 898) number of households 515.0 471.4 number of non-farm households 196.2 432.6 share of non-farm households 0.254 0.250 asphalt road dummy 0.752 0.432 road condition dummy 0.939 0.240 road lighting dummy 0.400 0.490 flood dummy 0.202 0.401 landslide dummy 0.131 0.338 Year: 2005 (N = 899) number of households 556.4 528.0 number of non-farm households 222.5 501.7 share of non-farm households 0.254 0.264 asphalt road dummy 0.744 0.437 road condition dummy 0.944 0.229 road lighting dummy 0.487 0.500 flood dummy 0.196 0.397 landslide dummy 0.164 0.370 Year: 2008 (N = 899) number of households 594.8 572.0 number of non-farm households 256.5 542.6 share of non-farm households 0.291 0.270 asphalt road dummy 0.764 0.425 road condition dummy 0.960 0.196 road lighting dummy 0.571 0.495 flood dummy 0.349 0.477 landslide dummy 0.251 0.434 Year: 2011 (N = 899) number of households 628.1 601.1 number of non-farm households 329.5 596.9 share of non-farm households 0.388 0.285 asphalt road dummy 0.851 0.356 road condition dummy 0.959 0.199 road lighting dummy 0.581 0.494 flood dummy 0.258 0.438 landslide dummy 0.204 0.403 Podes 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 1 45
4 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) 2002-2011 2002-2011 2002-2011 2002-2011 2002-2005 2002-2005 2002-2005 2002-2005 2002-2011 2002-2011 2002-2011 2002-2011 L3.asphalt road dummy 0.009 0.008 0.011 0.011 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.009 0.009 0.025 0.046 (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) (0.002) (0.002) (0.016) (0.018) L6.asphalt road dummy 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.006 0.015 (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.017) L3.road condition dummy 0.005 0.005 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.003 0.015 0.071 (0.005) (0.005) (0.008) (0.008) (0.006) (0.006) (0.010) (0.010) (0.005) (0.005) (0.032) (0.045) L6.road condition dummy 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.051 (0.007) (0.007) (0.009) (0.009) (0.046) L3.road lighting dummy 0.015 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.051 0.017 (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.012) (0.014) L6.road lighting dummy 0.015 0.015 0.016 0.017 0.077 (0.003) (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) (0.014) L3.share of non-farm households 0.087 0.087 0.085 0.085 0.087 0.088 0.068 0.069 0.087 0.087 0.431 0.437 (0.004) (0.004) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.008) (0.008) (0.004) (0.004) (0.020) (0.022) flood dummy 0.003 0.000 0.012 0.006 0.003 0.003 (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) landslide dummy 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) Constant 0.014 0.014 0.043 0.043 0.018 0.018 0.009 0.010 0.046 0.045 0.104 0.046 (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005) (0.032) (0.034) Observations 3594 3594 2695 2695 1796 1796 898 898 3580 3535 3517 2664 Adjusted R 2 0.162 0.163 0.149 0.149 0.135 0.141 0.088 0.088 0.163 0.163 0.125 0.140 1 5 1 0.1 46