Ueki Kawakatsu Chikako 1980 1980 1980 liberal deterrence 2 No. 586 2009 11 15
1 1 2005 1 2005 2 1996 3 1970 1989 7 7 12 WTO 2001 2009 4 2 2 5 1980 No. 586 2009 11 16
6 Axelrod 7 2 2 bipolar world unipolar world 1990 1 1980 2 1980 2 2 2 2 A B 2 2 8 1972 No. 586 2009 11 17
3 1980 2 2 2 2 2 2 1990 9 1990 1990 1980 1990 No. 586 2009 11 18
3 1 GDP GDP 40 25% 30% 1 GDP 2001 31.8% 2 1 1995 24.7% 17.6% 2007 2006 51% 3% 2006 6107 350 11 20 2 1990 % 35 1 GDP 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 2000 03 06 10 No. 586 2009 11 19
2 3 10% 12 4570 13 5 1 9000 14 2001 9 11 8640 2003 6 2 6420 15 2001 16 17 No. 586 2009 11 20
Global Commons 18 non-polarity 19 3 2003 G2 No. 586 2009 11 21
4 1 1980 3 1980 1972 20 1976 21 1980 1992 1996 2 1980 22 ODA 3 2008 2664 23 2 20 No. 586 2009 11 22
1990 1980 1992 24 Su-27 Su-30 J-10 10 8 AWACS Su-27 Su-30 300 25 Su-27 F-15 150 F-2 40 F-4 70 E-767 AWACS 2 2 26 2009 27 28 3 23% 2 29 2008 9 2009 3 1 30 No. 586 2009 11 23
31 1980 67% 2003 6 5 No. 586 2009 11 24
2 ASEAN ARF 6 SCO ARF 1 2005 2 19 2 2 http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/usa/hosho/ 2+2_05_02.html 2009 10 1 2 1981 Joint Communiqué Following Discussion With Prime Minister Zenko Suzuki of Japan, May 8, 1981. The Public Papers of President Ronald W. Reagan, Ronald Reagan Presidential Library http://www. reagan.utexas.edu/archives/speeches/1981/50881b.htm, 2009 7 1 3 21 1996 4 17 4 2009 16 5 Michael Jonathan Green, Managing Chinese Power: The View from Japan, Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert Ross, eds., Engaging China: the Management of an Emerging Power, New York, NY: Routledge, 1999, pp. 152, 158. 6 Dale C. Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations, International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 Spring 1996. 7 Robert Axelrod, Evolution of Cooperation, Cambridge, MA: Basic Books, 2006; Robert Axelrod and Robert O. Keohane, Achieving Cooperation under Anarchy: Strategies and Institutions, World Politics, Vol. 38, No. 1 Oct. 1985 ; Kenneth Oye, Explaining Cooperation No. 586 2009 11 25
under Anarchy: Hypotheses and Strategies, World Politics, Vol. 38, No. 1 Oct. 1985. 8 2 MAD: Mutual Assured Destruction 9 Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr., The Military-Technical Revolution: A Preliminary Assessment, Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2002. 1990 1992 7 2002 10 National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, United Nations Statistics Division http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/introduction.asp 2009 10 1 GDP GDP 11 621 PPP 896 The International Institute for Strategic Studies IISS, The Military Balance 2009, London: Routledge, 2009, p. 376. PPP PPP 12 2009 9 9.8% http://www.dol.gov/ 2009 10 10 13 4570 2007 U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007, August 2008 http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/p60-235.pdf 2009 10 1 3 1 8670 Families USA, Americans at Risk: One in Three Uninsured, March 2009 http://www.familiesusa.org/assets/ pdfs/americans-at-risk.pdf 2009 10 1 14 Krinshna Gula, US Taxpayers Face Bill of $1,900bn, Fears IMF, Financial Times, April 30, 2009, p. 3; International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Report: Responding to the Financial Crisis and Measuring Systemic Risk, April 2009, p. 48 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf 2009 10 1 15 9 11 6420 1890 Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, CRS Report to Congress, RL22110, Congressional Research Service, May 15, 2009, p. 1. 16 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review QDR 2 1 U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September 30, 2001, pp. 17 21. 17 1000 20 25 The U.S. Army/Marine Corps, Counterinsurgency Field Manual, Chicago: Chicago University Press, 2007, Section 1 67, pp. 22 23. 18 7 No. 586 2009 11 26
Barry R. Posen, Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony, International Security, Vol. 28, No. 1 Summer 2003, pp. 5 46; 2009 8 10 11 http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/ampobouei2/090928houkoku_e.pdf 19 Richard N. Haass, The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow U.S. Dominance, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 3 May/June 2008, pp. 44 56. 20 1970 1970 21 1976 1 1977 1977 1 22 1980 5 GDP 2% 1980 5 30 1949 1997 1998 23 Japan and China Building a Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests, Pamphlet, Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, p. 3 http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/china/relation.pdf 2009 7 1 24 1990 25 IISS, The Military Balance 2009, Abingdon, Oxfordshire: Routledge, 2009, p. 387. 26 Ibid., p. 393. 27 2 2009 5 15 2 http://www.kantei. go.jp/jp/singi/ampobouei2/dai9/gijisidai.html 2009 7 1 28 3 5 3 3 5 Larry A. Niksch, Senkaku Diaoyu Islands Dispute: The U.S. Legal Relationship and Obligations CRS Report for Congress, Order Code 96 798, September 30, 1996; State Department Noon Briefing, March 24, 2004 http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2004/march/20040324170337xjsnommis 0.4507105.html 2009 7 2 29 United States International Trade Commission http://dataweb.usitc.gov/scripts/cy_m3_run.asp 2009 10 1 http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/ japan/stats/trade/ 2009 10 1 30 Anthony Faiola and Zachary A. Goldfarb, China Tops Japan in U.S. Debt Holdings, Washington Post, November 19, 2008, p. D01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/18/ar No. 586 2009 11 27
2008111803558.html 2009 7 20 ; Anthony Faiola, China Worried About U.S. Debt: Biggest Creditor Nation Demands A Guarantee, Washington Post, March 14, 2009, p. A01. http://www. washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/13/ar2009031300703.html 2009 7 20 31 U.S. Department of the Treasury, Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, October 15, 2009. Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki Liberal Deterrence of China: Challenges in Achieving Japan s China Policy, Takashi Inoguchi, John Ikenberry, eds., Alliance Constrained http://www.waseda.jp/gsaps/faculty/ueki/index.html No. 586 2009 11 28