McHale OECD Campbell et al. Feldstein Feldstein and Pellechio Munnell King and Dicks- Mireaux Diamond and Hausman Venti and Wise Gale

< JEL classification E, H, D

McHale OECD Campbell et al. Feldstein Feldstein and Pellechio Munnell King and Dicks- Mireaux Diamond and Hausman Venti and Wise Gale

< OASDI: Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance IRA: Individual Retirement Account Social Security Social Security Administration DB: Defined Benefit Plan DC: Defined Contribution Plan Bernheim Retirement History Survey RHS Mitchell Survey of Consumer Finances SCF DC DB SCF %~ % %

論 文 1 + 2 Bernheim (1988) Mitchell (1988) Gustman and Steinmeier (2005) Bottazzi,et al. (2006) Dominitz and Manski (2006) Retirement History Survey Survey of Consumer Finances Health and Retirement Study Survey of Household Income and Wealth Survey of Economic Expectations 1971, 1973 1983 1992 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 1999-2002 3 1 +-1973 - ++1971 1 - +++ - - + - + - - + + - - - OLS - - - + + + + - - - + + - OLS - + OLS - - + - - + + 25% - + - - + + 70 LAD + - LAD -+ + LAD - + 10 + - - - -- + Rohwedder and Kleinjans (2006) Health and Retirement Study 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 10 + - - - - - - - + 10 + + - 62 50% - - - + + ++ 75+ + - Okumura and Usui (2011) Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement 2007 2008 2009 OLS - + + - - OLS - + + + OLS - + + 10% OLS - + - + SEE

< Gustman and Steinmeier Health and Retirement Study HRS HRS % %% %% % % don't know Bernheim Mitchell Gustman and Steinmeier Gustman and Steinmeier % % Rohwedder and Kleinjans HRS % wave wave % wave % % wave % %

Dominitz et al. Dominitz and Manski Survey of Economic Expectations SEE SEE Dominitz and Manski % % %HRS % SEE Rohwedder and Kleinjans % % Bottazzi et al. Bottazzi et al. Survey of Household Income and Wealth SHIW. %~. %. %~. %

< differences-in-differences estimation JSTAR: Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement Okumura and Usui % % Okumura and Usui regression discontinuity design

Liebman and Luttmer % Attanasio and Brugiavini Bottazzi et al.

< 論 文 Attanasio and Brugiavini (2003) Survey of Household Income and Wealth 1989 1991 1993 1995 2SLS 10%8.65% 4.4% Attanasio and Rohwedder (2003) Family Expenditure Survey Bottazzi, et al. (2006) Survey of Household Income and Wealth 19741987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 SERPS BSP 2SLS SERPS 54.7%~74.9% BSP 30.6% OLS 23.7%~37.9% 2SLS 44.1%~81.0% (2008) 1996 1998 2000 2002 OLS 5.5%~6.2% 2SLS 0.4%~0.5% Hamaaki (2010) NEEDS-RADAR 1996 2000 OLS 22.6%~72.4% Okumura and Usui (2011) Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement 2007 2008 2009 10% 10% OLS 2SLS 10% + 10% + 10% +

Bottazzi et al. Attanasio and Rohwedder BSP: Basic State Pension BSP BSP % SERPS: State Earnings-Related Pension Scheme SERPS SERPS Opting out SERPS Attanasio and Rohwedder Opting out SERPS BSP Bottazzi et al. Bottazzi et al. Guiso et al. Delavande and Rohwedder Guiso et al.

< Delavande and Rohwedder Hamaaki % Hamaaki Okumura and Usui % % % et al

Bottazzi et al. Okumura and Usui Rohwedder and Soest. ha. ha a a

< 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 50.6 49.0 47.6 46.8 45.4 43.6 44.6 44.4 46.4 (24.0) (24.6) (23.7) (23.0) (21.7) (20.5) (22.0) (22.3) (22.8) 26.6 25.7 25.3 24.4 23.9 22.9 23.3 23.3 24.4 (12.5) (12.3) (13.0) (10.6) (10.4) (9.6) (9.6) (9.8) (11.0) 81.4 73.1 71.5 69.8 66.9 70.0 70.5 72.8 71.7 (55.2) (47.8) (36.9) (42.8) (35.5) (47.8) (43.6) (51.2) (45.5) 41.0 35.4 34.3 32.7 30.7 31.0 30.1 31.0 33.1 (28.2) (24.9) (17.8) (21.2) (17.0) (23.9) (20.7) (26.8) (23.0) 2.7 5.1 5.6 6.2 7.3 9.7 11.2 12.3 7.5 (5.2) (7.8) (7.8) (8.5) (8.7) (12.2) (10.1) (8.6) (9.4) 56.8 57.5 57.9 58.4 59.1 60.1 60.2 60.8 58.9 (7.1) (7.4) (7.9) (7.8) (7.8) (7.9) (8.4) (8.6) (7.9) 54.1 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.4 57.3 57.5 58.2 56.1 (7.0) (7.3) (7.8) (7.9) (8.0) (8.0) (8.5) (8.4) (8.0) 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 (1.8) (1.8) (1.8) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (1.9) 0.476 0.519 0.529 0.578 0.584 0.621 0.629 0.624 0.572 0.385 0.316 0.292 0.243 0.233 0.188 0.176 0.177 0.249 0.140 0.165 0.179 0.179 0.183 0.191 0.195 0.199 0.179 0.671 0.643 0.626 0.639 0.646 0.646 0.652 0.647 0.646 0.098 0.103 0.117 0.092 0.081 0.073 0.067 0.071 0.087 0.231 0.254 0.257 0.269 0.272 0.281 0.281 0.282 0.266 718 0.241 0.203 0.198 0.182 0.174 0.169 0.142 0.124 0.179 6 0.227 0.244 0.253 0.272 0.267 0.281 0.281 0.286 0.264 286 291 257 346 356 356 267 266 2425 - - - - - - - - 502

,,..,,.. i t Pension start i i Z t i t

< 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 A Pension start. % B Pension start A CD CDB

ln(y t /Y t-1 ) OLS (A) (B) (C) (D) Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Pension start 0.155 *** 0.126 *** 0.116 *** 0.125 *** (0.025) (0.025) (0.029) (0.039) F 2425 3.38 *** 1881 2.8 *** 1471 2.39 *** 798 1.71 ** 0.0183 0.0163 0.0159 0.0113 ** *** % % Pension start 推 定 方 法 ln(c t /C t-1 ) OLS (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Pension start 0.028 * 0.035 ** 0.035 ** 0.053 ** 0.061 ** (0.014) (0.015) (0.017) (0.021) (0.025) F 2425 4.4 *** 1881 3.14 *** 1471 3.24 *** 798 1.92 ** 503 1.41 0.0288 0.0242 0.0294 0.0153 0.0074 * ** *** % % % Pension start Pension start. %~. % A C DE D E

< Pension start E E Pension start i,0 Pension start i Pension start i,1 Pension start i,2 Pension start i,3 i A C D s= %~ % AC D. %. %. %

(A) s =1 s =2 s =3 ln(y t/y t-s-1) OLS (B) (C) (D) s =1 s =2 s =3 s =1 s =2 s =3 s =2 s =3 Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Pension start 1 0.107 *** - - 0.128 *** - - 0.132 *** - - 0.138 ** - - (0.035) - - (0.036) - - (0.042) - - (0.061) - - Pension start 2-0.088 ** - - 0.120 *** - - 0.140 *** - - 0.155 ** - - (0.042) - - (0.044) - - (0.052) - - (0.075) - Pension start 3 - - 0.084 - - 0.095 * - - 0.069 - - 0.087 - - (0.053) - - (0.055) - - (0.065) - - (0.086) F 1913 2.61 *** 1462 2.76 *** 1079 2.91 *** 1466 2.11 *** 1104 2.19 *** 802 1.77 ** 1130 2.44 *** 840 2.25 *** 601 2.37 *** 609 1.79 ** 442 1.88 ** 310 1.44 0.0150 0.0217 0.0294 0.0155 0.0169 0.0151 0.0232 0.0259 0.0297 0.0140 0.0110 0.0126 * ** *** % % % Pension start s =1 ln(c t/c t-s-1) OLS (A) (B) (C) (D) Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Pension start 1 0.038 * - - 0.035 - - 0.041 * - - 0.051 * - - (0.02) - - (0.022) - - (0.024) - - (0.028) - - Pension start 2-0.025 - - 0.009 - - 0.014 - - 0.031 - - (0.024) - - (0.026) - - (0.028) - - (0.037) - Pension start 3 - - 0.017 - - -0.016 - - -0.021 - - 0.029 - - (0.032) - - (0.034) - - (0.036) - - (0.046) s =1 s =2 s =3 s =1 s =2 s =3 s =1 s =2 s =3 s =1 s =2 s =3 F 1900 5.66 *** 1450 8.08 *** 1066 7.00 *** 1458 3.80 *** 1096 5.11 *** 793 4.13 *** 1121 3.52 *** 833 4.53 *** 593 4.25 *** 598 2.17 *** 433 3.16 *** 303 3.04 *** 0.0520 0.0846 0.1016 0.0391 0.0659 0.0754 0.0445 0.0696 0.0967 0.0365 0.0730 0.0958 * *** % % Pension start s= ~ %

< 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 1 2 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 1 2 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 1 2

- - - - - -

< - - - ESRI Discussion Paper.. Attanasio, Orazio P., Brugiavini, Agar. () Social Security and Households Saving Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.,., pp.-. Attanasio, Orazio P., Susann Rohwedder. () Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom. American Economic Review, Vol.,., pp. -. Bernheim, Douglas. () Social Security Benefits: An Empirical Study of Expectations and Realizations In Issues in Contemporary Retirement, eds. Rita Ricardo-Campbell and Edward P. Lazear. Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, pp. -. Bottazzi, Retana., Tullio, Jappelli, Mario Padula. () Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms, and Their Impact on Private Wealth Accumulation Journal of Public Economics, Vol.,., pp.-. Bottazzi, Retana., Tullio, Jappelli, Mario Padula. () The Portfolio Effect of Pension Reforms: Evidence from Italy Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol.,., pp. -. Campbell, John Y., João F. Cocco, Francisco J. Gomes, and Pascal J. Maenhout. () Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model. In Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, eds. John Y. Campbell and Martin Feldstein. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, NBER Books: pp. -. Delavande, Adeline, Susann Rohwedder. () Individuals uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.,., pp. -. Dominitz, Jeff., Charles F. Manski, Jordan Heinz. () Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions, NBER Working Paper.. Dominitz, Jeff., Charles F. Manski. () Measuring Pension-benefit Expectations Probabilistically. Labour, Vol.,., pp. -. Diamond, Peter A., Jerry A, Hausman. () Individual Retirement and Savings Decisions Journal of Public Economics, Vol.,. -, pp. -. Feldstein, Martin. () Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Accumulation Journal of Political Economy, Vol.,., pp.-. Feldstein, Martin., Anthony Pellechio. () Social Security and Household Wealth Accumulation: New Microeconometric Evidence Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.,., pp.-. Gale, William G. () The Effects of Pension Wealth on Household Wealth: A Reevaluation of Theory and Evidence Journal of Political Economy, Vol.,., pp.-. Guiso Luigi, Tullio Jappelli, Mario Padula. () Pension risk, retirement saving and insurance EUI Working Papers ECO /. Guiso Luigi, Tullio Jappelli, Mario Padula. () Pension Wealth Uncertainty Journal of Risk and Insurance, forthcoming. Gustman Alan L., Thomas Steinmeier. () Imperfect Knowledge of Social Security Pensions. Industrial Relations, Vol.,., pp. -. Hamaaki, Junya. () The Effects of the Pension Reform on Household Asset Accumulation in Japan: A Test of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis. In Essays on the Behavioral Effects of Social Security and Taxation: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data, Ph. D Dissertation, University of Tokyo, pp. -..

King, Mervyn A., Louis Dicks-Mireaux. () Asset Holdings and The Life-Cycle The Economic Journal, Vol.,., pp.-. Liebman, Jeffrey B., Erzo F.P. Luttmer. () Would People Behave Differently if they Better Understood Social Security? Evidence from a Field Experiment NBER Working Paper.. McHale, John. () The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence. In Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, eds. John Y. Campbell and Martin Feldstein. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. NBER Books: pp. -. Mitchell, Olivia S. () Worker Knowledge of Pension Provisions, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol.,., pp. -. Munnell, Alicia H. () Private Pensions and Saving: New Evidence Journal of Political Economy, Vol.,., pp.-. Okumura, Tsunao., Emiko Usui. () Effect of Pension Reform on Pension-Benefit Expectations and Savings Decisions in Japan RIETI Discussion Paper Series -E-. Rohwedder, Susann. Kristin J. Kleinjans. () Dynamics of Individual Information about Social Security, mimeo. Rohwedder, Susann. Arthur van Soest. () The Impact of Misperceptions about Social Security on Saving and Well-Being, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement Discussion Paper.-. Venti, Steven F., David A. Wise. () The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans NBER Working Paper..